Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12244 tópicos neste fórum
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade relatively quietly on Tuesday, but with an upward bias. In just a week, the highly anticipated Fed meeting will take place—a market event awaited as eagerly as the NFP or unemployment figures. In principle, there is no intrigue left, as the latest labor market and unemployment reports showed no improvement. So, with a 99.9% probability, the Fed is expected to cut the key rate by 0.25%. Why not more? The answer is simple but requires explanation. In short, because Jerome Powell remains Chair, the FOMC committee composition is still independent. Donald Trump is doing everything possible to ensure that Powell and all his colleague…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD pair once again traded quite calmly on Wednesday, which is not surprising given that only one report—the US Producer Price Index—was published during the day. Although this report triggered a strong market reaction a month ago, we warned in advance that the reaction would depend entirely on actual versus forecast data. Still, while in recent weeks both major currency pairs have not delighted traders with trending moves, that doesn't mean there's a lack of news. Most headlines, of course, are tied to Donald Trump. For example, Trump is still trying to "put out" the Ukraine–Russia conflict, but knows no method other than tariffs and sanctions to achieve his goal…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly again on Thursday, although when the US inflation data came out, the price began to swing sharply. The August consumer price index was 2.9% y/y, which overall is in line with forecasts. Core inflation remained at 3.1%, also as expected. So in general, US inflation didn't surprise anyone. However, in recent years, inflation has been mainly interesting to traders because of its massive influence on the Fed's monetary policy. With Donald Trump's arrival, the situation has changed dramatically, making the consumer price index just another ordinary report. Let's start with the fact that Trump's policy helps fuel consumer price incr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. In the morning, the UK reports on unemployment and wages were published, but these only allowed traders to draw conclusions that had no impact on their trading decisions. For instance, the unemployment rate remained at 4.7%—what are we to conclude from that? Or the pace of wage growth slowed slightly (but stayed within forecasts)—what does that mean? Will the Bank of England take these figures and their results seriously? In our view, the UK data package was utterly pointless. On Monday, there were no significant releases or events in either the US or the UK, yet the pound kept rising at the same rate al…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair traded relatively calmly until the evening. The evening events and subsequent movements will be analyzed later today, once the dust settles and traders digest all the information. For the pound, it may take another day, as the Bank of England's meeting is scheduled for today, which could also spark major market volatility. As a result, the pair may swing both ways for two consecutive days, movements that are unlikely to be considered systematic. In the EUR/USD review, we discussed the "three doves" within the Fed—Mirran, Bowman, and Waller. These three are ready to vote at FOMC meetings exactly as Trump demands, and while the Fed is not supp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair also easily and calmly returned to its original positions on Thursday, only to continue its decline. As we mentioned in previous articles, it is wise to reserve judgment for now and not rush to conclusions or entirely rethink the technical picture. The dollar may show some growth, but under current conditions, any rise in the dollar is likely to be only corrective. The Fed's monetary policy stance nearly perfectly matched traders' expectations, so in essence, there was no fundamental reason to sell or buy. Jerome Powell took the same stance he always does: Fed decisions will depend entirely on macroeconomic data, and any rate decisions will be ma…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which is already starting to look at least somewhat unusual. Let's remember: explaining any move after the fact is easy if you want to. We try to avoid that kind of "analysis," where moves are merely explained after they happen, rather than predicted and properly analyzed. What's the point of telling people after a move has occurred why it happened? The pound sterling has been falling for about a week, losing around 300 pips from its latest high. That's quite a lot, but were there solid reasons for such a drop? Technically, yes. This is one of those cases where the market interpreted the information as…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Over the past two weeks, the GBP/USD pair has lost significant value. It cannot be said that the decline in the British pound was unjustified, but at the same time, it cannot be called "fully logical" either. Simply put, the market used almost all recent news against the pound. However, due to this decline, the technical picture has changed only on the lower timeframes. On the higher ones, we are still dealing with the long-term upward trend of 2025. This week, the U.S. dollar will try to defend its hard-won positions. Yet the overall picture again looks unfavorable for the greenback. Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, trucks, and furniture, signaling…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement in Monday's trading, even though volatility was fairly low. Throughout Monday, traders received no significant macroeconomic or fundamental news, so the sluggish market activity is quite understandable. At the same time, last Friday and the previous week provided plenty of food for thought. Over recent weeks, we've grown tired of repeating the same thing—there is simply no reason for the dollar to rise. Of course, that doesn't mean the dollar cannot rise by definition. It just means there are no grounds for it to do so. As always, the problem lies with the big players—market makers who, thanks to their capital, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD pair showed no interesting movements on Friday. While the euro saw trading activity for two days this week, the British pound only saw movement on Wednesday. Interestingly, it is still unclear what triggered the strong movement of 150 pips that the market hadn't seen in over a month and a half. Recall that the rise of the British currency began during the night on Wednesday, continued throughout the European session, and ended during the American session. The most important report of the day and the week—the ADP report on the US labor market—was published precisely during the American trading session. Next week, there will be several important events in the UK…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair showed a volatility of 37 pips on Friday. There were no market movements, despite several macroeconomic reports in the UK and the U.S. Earlier in the week, key data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation were released in the U.S., along with the Bank of England meeting, where a decision to lower the key rate was made. Reports on UK business activity, unemployment, and inflation were also published. Yet, all that traders got this week was a flat market. If traders couldn't determine the direction of movement last week, the likelihood of a trending movement this week is even lower. Of course, in a "thin" market, movements can occur. But t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair remained mostly stagnant on Monday rather than trading actively. However, looking at the events calendar for the first day of the week, all questions dissipate. While the euro had at least the German business climate index at its disposal, the pound and dollar had nothing. There was simply nothing for traders to react to. The American session has traditionally been slightly more volatile than the European session, but overall volatility remains rather mediocre. On Monday, there was simply nothing to analyze: there were no events, no market movements. The focus now shifts to expectations for the current week. A considerable amount of time need not…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair slightly corrected on Friday but retained its local upward trend. Currently, the pair may be at the very beginning of a new upward trend that will be part of the trend for 2025. From our perspective, the fundamental backdrop for the dollar has not changed in the second half of this year, and the dollar itself has extracted the maximum from local fundamentals and macroeconomic factors. It is also worth noting that the euro and the pound generally trade in the same direction and quite similarly. If the upward trend in the euro were to be reversed, we would have expected further declines in the British pound. However, as the euro remains in a flat r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trading at 1.30244, a level last seen in early April, GBP/USD has fallen 0.87% in today’s session alone. Continuing a period of bearish momentum, cable is now on pace for its worst two-weekly performance since November 2024, with four days to spare until the candle closes. Recently breaking through previously held support and the 200-day SMA, one has to ask: What’s next for GBP/USD? GBP/USD: Key takeaways 30/10/2025 With today’s session signifying the worst GBP/USD performance in over 140 calendar days, price action has convincingly broken previously held support at 1.31403, and the 200-day SMA at 1.31011 Writing ahead of the Bank of England’s Thursday decision, Gov…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Falling under 1.32000 yesterday, GBP/USD currently trades 1.3176, down -0.13%. Succumbing to selling pressure, yesterday’s session goes on record as cable’s worst daily performance in thirty-four days. GBP/USD now looks for support both at monthly lows and the 200-day SMA, or will risk a further move to the downside. What’s next for GBP/USD? Let’s discuss. GBP/USD: Key takeaways 30/10/2025 While still up around 5.40% year-to-date, owing mainly to dollar downside as opposed to pound strength, GBP/USD has recently fallen to 5-month lows of 1.31400 Later this week, an Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) assessment is expected to rein in productivity estimates for the U…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBPUSD rallied after US CPI data all but confirmed a rate cut next week. At least that is the view of market participants who actually priced in as much as 75 bps of cuts through December 2025, according to futures pricing. For more on the US CPI release, please read A hesistant FX Market after the as-expected September CPI release – Technical levels US data had been the talking point heading into the week, and now with CPI and PPI behind us focus may begin to turn to UK GDP data due out tomorrow. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD is rallying today, currently up 0.70% in the New York session. Trading around ~1.36200, cable is on pace for its best two-day performance since mid-April, owing to further dollar downside. GBP/USD: Key takeaways from today’s session A fall in safe-haven demand, mainly due to expectations of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, has opened the door to further dollar weakness, with the DXY down 0.46% in today’s session Otherwise, dovish commentary from Fed policymakers, suggesting that a July rate cut remains a possibility, has also hurt dollar pricing close …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The week had started slowly in FX markets, characterized by mean-reverting, small up-and-down movements across all currencies as traders got back from their Thanksgiving break and awaited fresh data. The US Dollar was holding its range calmly, bouncing yesterday, but the landscape shifted dramatically today. The fresh monthly ADP Private Employment data delivered a shocker to the Market showing a contraction of -32,000 jobs (vs +10,000 gain exp). This reading only anchors the rate cut expectations for next Wednesday's FOMC meeting (December 10th), effectively locking in the decision. With US Yields diving lower on the news, traders are now starting to aggressively price…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded lower again on Friday, though this time there were grounds to buy the British pound. In the morning, three more or less significant reports were released in the UK: business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as retail sales. All three reports were more positive than analysts' forecasts. Thus, there were reasons for the British currency to rise from the very beginning of the day. In the afternoon, the U.S. published an inflation report, which can confidently be considered the main event of the week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. was released with a 10-day delay and showed weaker-than-expected i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively weakly on Tuesday, as expected given the absence of significant macroeconomic events in both the UK and the US. The most notable event of the day was Donald Trump's statement that he has decided on a new Federal Reserve chair, "the name of whom will be announced later." Nevertheless, the British currency is gradually appreciating, and it is important to remember that any trend begins with a slight movement. Several interesting technical moments emerged on Tuesday and are worth analyzing. Firstly, the GBP/USD pair failed to overcome the moving average line, which means that the upward trend remains. Secondly, during the European …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continued to trade very calmly. Still, it is worth recalling that the U.S. dollar has recently accumulated several fresh factors of weakness. Whether the U.S. NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment reports will be released today remains unclear, with contradictory news circulating. However, even without these releases, the situation looks obvious. We have often noted that ADP and NonFarm Payrolls figures for the same month rarely align closely. The market, therefore, tends to focus more on Nonfarm Payrolls for assessing the labor market. What the two reports do share, however, is the trend: both show different numbers but a consistent deterioratio…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair surged briskly on Monday. No significant events were scheduled in either the UK or the US that day, so a typical "quiet Monday" was expected. However, the market decided otherwise. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of its meeting, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday afternoon. We have repeatedly noted that the dollar once again faces highly unfavorable conditions for another decline. Let's discuss this in more detail. The first step is to open the daily timeframe. It is clear that the British currency rallied strongly in the first half of 2025, something not seen with the pound for several years, if not l…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair also showed an upward movement on Monday. Before discussing the much-troubled dollar of 2025, it should be recalled that illogical moves in the market are possible and occur quite often. Market participants (market makers) trade not only to profit from exchange rate differences over time. They also execute transactions necessary for their operations. Therefore, the dollar can theoretically appreciate even when all the factors are against it. Logged. Over the past two weeks, the U.S. dollar has experienced a notable rise. While we cannot say this move was illogical, there were certain grounds for strengthening the American currency, such as a stro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight increase last week, but overall volatility remains low. The market is still in a wait-and-see mode. The US dollar has no real reasons to grow, except for occasional corrections. The British pound has no reason to rise either, but it does have a trump card—the falling dollar. The British problems date back to 2016, when Brexit began. If you look at the current state of the British economy—issues with bonds and the budget, declining living standards, and so on—it's natural to wonder: why is the pound even rising at all? The pound rises because the dollar is falling, and there's no one else to strengthen it. The choices are limited. Thi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Why Record Deliveries Still Mean a Profit Margin Squeeze GBP/USD has fallen around 60 pips since the UK inflation data release this morning. This could be down to the fact that traders added to BoE easing bets, seeing 17bps of cuts by December. The inflation print has brought a December rate cut into play once more as the print comes after wage growth also showed signs of a slowdown last week. However, the BoE decision in December may now rest with the outcome of the UK Autumn budget due in November. UK Inflation Data Opens Door to December Rate Cut The most significant takeaway from the latest UK inflation data is the …
Last reply by Ben Graham,
