Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12290 tópicos neste fórum
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GBP/USD Analysis – 5M Chart On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair attempted to resume its upward movement in line with the new uptrend that formed after the last trendline break. However, as with the euro, most of the past week was spent in a flat phase. While less pronounced than in EUR/USD, the pound also failed to break below the critical line—or above the Senkou Span B line, for that matter. Thus, we're still in a flat market. There were no significant events in the UK on Friday. The only noteworthy release was the U.S. ISM Services PMI, which was processed by the market weakly and unconvincingly. On Thursday, for reasons unclear, the pound plummeted despite having…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Analysis – 5M Chart The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no significant movement on Friday. Even on the hourly time frame, it is clearly visible that the pair remained in a total flat throughout the past week. Only once did the price attempt to break out of the range between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—on Thursday, when the unemployment rate in the Eurozone unexpectedly rose to 6.3%. All other, far more important, data was either ignored by the market or responded to very weakly. And that's a shame. There was plenty to pay attention to last week—starting with the U.S. government shutdown. It's hard to believe such a major event, which doesn't …
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At the start of the new trading week, the British pound attempted to break below the MACD line on the daily chart. However, due to a downside gap at the opening, the momentum was insufficient, and the price returned above the MACD line after briefly breaching it. If today's candlestick closes bullish (white), the price may attempt to break through the key resistance level at 1.3525 again. A successful consolidation above this level would extend the upward movement toward the target at 1.3631—marking the high from June 13. On the four-hour chart, the price is poised to break through the MACD line in an effort to close the gap. On a price rise, the Marlin oscillator woul…
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EUR/USD The sideways movement of the past week resulted in a downside gap today. However, this was largely influenced by a more significant 200-point gap in the USD/JPY pair, caused by Sanae Takaichi's election as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend. A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is now expected to become Japan's next prime minister. This development indirectly impacted EUR/USD, but the euro may still strengthen over the course of the new week. The upper boundary of the current range is marked by the October 1 high at 1.1779. A consolidation above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1…
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USD/CAD On the daily chart of USD/CAD, a relatively weak, likely corrective divergence has formed. The price reversed from the target level of 1.3977. The MACD line is approaching the 1.3878 level at a steep upward angle. Likely, the intersection point of the MACD line with the target level will create a point of attraction and, at the same time, a potential reversal point for the next upward movement, as illustrated by the dashed line in the chart. A consolidation of the price below the 1.3878 level and also below the MACD line will deepen the decline to the 1.3810 level—either to create a false breakout or for a medium-term downward move. On the four-hour chart, the s…
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Ethereum price started a steady increase above $4,500. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,620 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $4,450 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,500 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $4,490 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,550 and $4,620. Ethereum Price Gains Over 5% Ethereum price remained supported above the $4,320 level and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,450 and $4,500 re…
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Bitcoin price started a strong increase and traded above $124,000. BTC is now consolidating gains and might aim for a fresh rally in the short term. Bitcoin started a major increase above the $123,500 zone. The price is trading above $122,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at $123,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it clears the $124,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Fresh Rally Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $120,000 zone and started a fresh increase. BTC settled above the $121,500 resistance zone to start the current m…
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XRP has defended support at $2.90 and made several attempts to push above $3.10 over the past week. Although XRP bulls have managed to hold above $3, the cryptocurrency hasn’t really followed rallies witnessed by Bitcoin and Ethereum in the past 24 hours. Nonethless, XRP’s price action in the past few days has caused its price chart to print a new technical setup that has previously marked the beginning of significant rallies, and history might repeat itself again. Bullish XRP Technical Signal Reappears Technical analysis of XRP’s 3-day candlestick chart shows that the cryptocurrency is currently repeating a technical signal which has preceded rallies multiple times t…
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Why is crypto up today? Crypto is green to start the week as Bitcoin’s fresh all-time high and a softer dollar lift risk appetite, while SPX, FARTCOIN, and AIC headline Sunday’s biggest movers ahead of FOMC. The crypto market gained ground over the past 24 hours, led by meme and AI-linked tokens after Bitcoin set a new record above $125,000 on Sunday. As total crypto capitalization edged higher, SPX6900 (SPX), FARTCOIN, and AI Companions (AIC) stood out among the top performers. Their gains tracked renewed inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a weaker dollar that lifted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) eased toward 97.7 late last week, giving r…
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Dark times are ahead for EUR/USD traders—and for all dollar-based pairs. The continued U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of official economic data. For instance, last week was supposed to bring September's Nonfarm Payrolls numbers, but traders had to settle for the ADP report, which does not cover government employees or several other non-agricultural sectors. This week, key inflation metrics (CPI/PPI) are scheduled for release, but they are unlikely to be published unless Congress unexpectedly reopens the government. If the shutdown continues—which remains the most likely scenario—EUR/USD traders will be forced to operate in a state of information vacuum. …
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This week, the market's attention will once again be focused—if not entirely, then almost entirely—on the U.S. dollar. More precisely, on the U.S. news cycle surrounding the dollar. Let's recall that last week marked the beginning of a government shutdown, and a new vote in the Senate to extend funding deadlines failed. Republicans are still a few votes short of passing the budget for the next fiscal year. As a result, it's currently impossible to say with certainty when the shutdown will end. Meanwhile, the shutdown continues to evolve with increasingly complex political baggage. Democrats still demand that social and healthcare programs not be cut, effectively pushing f…
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While the euro has remained in a sideways range over the past week, the British pound has been swinging back and forth for months. These fluctuations don't significantly impact the wave layout, but the structure is becoming more complex and increasingly difficult to use effectively in short-term trading. That said, the upward trend segment continues to develop, and the fundamental backdrop still favors buyers—this much is clear. In the new week, it will be difficult for the pound to find strong support from the domestic UK news cycle. But that's not necessarily a problem. First, even the current set of news may be enough for the market to resume buying activity. Second, t…
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The way EUR/USD traded this week deserves a spot in textbooks—under the section "Exceptions to the Rules." Despite wave patterns indicating the construction of an upward trend and a nearly 100% supportive news backdrop for buyers, we didn't see any significant movement throughout the week. While the overall wave layout remains intact, trader sentiment may have been negatively impacted, as there were plenty of reasons to expect greater volatility. As a result, we may see the market continue trading with relatively low activity going into the new week. If last week—despite objectively strong news—failed to trigger a rally, it implies that the market has entered a pause phas…
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Based on everything discussed in the previous review, it seems we're witnessing an emerging tug-of-war between Donald Trump and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB wants a weaker franc, and Trump wants a weaker dollar. If Trump perceives the SNB's actions as "interventions aimed at making Swiss goods more competitive abroad," the likely response would be new tariffs or sanctions. This week, the U.S. Treasury and the Swiss National Bank released a joint statement declaring that neither side is engaging in currency manipulation to gain a competitive advantage. Based on this, both parties may maintain a neutral stance moving forward. The SNB could allow the USD/CHF exchan…
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The dominance of the U.S. dollar is waning. Of course, the process of central banks moving away from holding dollar reserves and governments shifting away from using the dollar for international transactions is a long one—it may take years or even decades. But as the saying goes, the first step has been taken. This week, it was revealed that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) made a historic pivot from the dollar to the euro. Instead of purchasing U.S. dollars, the SNB is now buying euros to stabilize the Swiss franc's exchange rate. It's important to note that both the SNB and Switzerland as a whole are considered strongholds of financial stability. While SNB policy doesn't c…
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In the first quarter, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.6% due to the implementation of Donald Trump's tariffs. In the second quarter, it showed one of its strongest growth rates in recent years, mainly due to the same trade war. While the first reading came as no surprise, the second certainly did. Still, both can be easily explained. In Q1, companies expected the worst, drastically cut imports, and many consumers chose to hold off on non-essential purchases amidst complete economic uncertainty. In Q2, the U.S. budget experienced a surge in import-related revenue, while actual import volumes continued to decline. However, the most interesting aspect is this: if tariffs in…
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With Donald Trump potentially interested in blocking labor market and unemployment data releases, it's critical to assess the Federal Reserve's position. Right now, the level of uncertainty is off the charts. In his recent speeches, Jerome Powell made it clear that rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data. However, the question remains: how will the FOMC make decisions if the data are not available? In my view, if the government shutdown doesn't end within a week or two, the Fed may choose not to adjust monetary policy at its October meeting as a precautionary measure. It's worth mentioning that despite a dovish sentiment within the FOMC, most policymakers lea…
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Dogecoin has shown signs of renewed momentum after reclaiming ground above $0.26 in the past 24 hours, but it hasn’t made a clean breakout yet. Nonetheless, crypto analysts are bullish on the meme coin, and a few of them have highlighted important support, resistance, and breakout levels. As it stands, Dogecoin path to $0.3 still holds merit, and its reaction here will determine how its price action plays out. Analysts Map Out Bullish Setups And Near-Term Targets The $0.30 level, in particular, stands out as the next critical threshold for Dogecoin: both as a psychological and technical marker that could open the door for a stronger rally if conquered. For instance, c…
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Bitcoin pushed to a fresh all-time high on Sunday, trading above $125,000 in Asian hours as markets extended gains into October. According to reports, the token rose about 2.7% to roughly $125,245 on the day, topping its prior August peak near $124,480. Institutional Flows And Political Signals Based on reports, a large wave of demand through US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs has been a key fuel for the move, with weekly net inflows into those funds reported at around $3.24 billion. Investors and traders also pointed to a weaker US dollar and broader equity strength as helping push prices higher. Some coverage tied the shift in sentiment to policy signals under US President …
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Whales are on the move again, and this time it aligns with one of the biggest ETF buying weeks of the year for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Both Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs returned to inflows last week, and data shows some whales addresses are also moving their crypto assets from exchanges and into self custody. On-chain tracker Lookonchain reported that newly created wallets have withdrawn massive amounts of Bitcoin and Ethereum from major exchanges, showing the large-scale accumulation by crypto whales. Massive Withdrawals From Crypto Exchanges According to data from SosoValue, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.24 billion worth of inflows in the just-concluded week, revers…
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Bitcoin price (BTC) climbed to a new all-time high overnight, reaching about $125,700 during Sunday’s Asia session before pulling back to the low $123,000 range. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time The rally extended an eight-day winning streak and came as spot ETF inflows surged alongside a weaker US dollar amid renewed concerns over a potential government shutdown. The move surpassed Bitcoin’s previous mid-August peak, marking another milestone in the asset’s strongest run since early 2024. Price action turned volatile near 12:45 a.m. ET, when BTC spiked…
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Bitcoin’s price gain in the last week has resulted in multiple other positive developments, ranging from a surge in ETF inflows to a bullish change in option trading calls, all signifying a renewed market confidence. In particular, over 99% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at an unrealized profit, a milestone that underscores the market’s strength. However, historical trends suggest that such conditions often precede a major price correction. Bitcoin May Be Headed For 10% Correction – Analyst In an X post on October 4, market analyst Ted Pillows shares an important cautionary insight on the present Bitcoin market. Using data from the on-chain analytics platf…
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The US government is said to be interested in buying a stake in Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML), part of the Trump administration’s broader strategy to expand its control over the world’s supply of critical minerals, Reuters reported on Friday. The deal, if finalized, would give Washington a direct interest in the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, one of the largest rare earth deposits in the world. The Reuters report comes a day after Critical Metals more than doubled its interest in the project from 42% to 92.5%, effectively giving it near-control. The reported government interest follows a series of high-profile transactions Washington made to acquire stak…
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According to veteran investor Pumpius, who says he has watched crypto since 2013, XRP may be poised for a sharp move higher. He outlines nine catalysts that he believes could push the price toward double digits, and even as high as $50, all within the next five months. ETF Approvals Could Unlock Institutional Flows Reports have disclosed that the SEC has sped up ETF reviews, and several crypto funds already list XRP, including Grayscale’s Multi-Asset Fund. Pumpius says a standalone XRP spot ETF is likely to arrive soon because deadlines are closing in. He argues that when ETFs go live, institutional money will pour in, raising liquidity and lifting prices quickly. Rip…
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Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained a strong bullish performance over the past seven days, with the price gaining by approximately 12%. The crypto market leader rose to near $124,000 before experiencing a slight retracement, which has now forced prices to $122,070. With the market maintaining a consolidation pattern, prominent analyst Ali Martinez has shared some important price insights based on the MVRV pricing bands. Holding Above $117k Could Propel BTC To $140k Next The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric measures how far Bitcoin’s market price deviates from its realized price, effectively assessing whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued relative to historical …
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