Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The vision of Bitcoin absorbing the world’s entire capital float is a compelling narrative, yet it runs headlong into a significant technical constraint. Bitcoin will not realize this massive potential unless mechanisms are created to move and utilize capital directly on its network. Why Bitcoin Can’t Absorb Global Wealth Overnight Analyst BRITISH HODL presents a powerful thesis on BTC’s role, arguing that its impact extends far beyond its own valuation, fundamentally changing how global capital is allocated. In an X post, BRITISH HODL stated that while BTC aims to absorb global capital, this is conditional, and BTC will not capture all of the capital flow on earth unle…
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders have just made large deposits to exchanges, a potential sign profit-taking is underway. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Exchange Inflows Have Shot Up In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the deposits being made by Bitcoin short-term holders to centralized exchanges. The “short-term holders” (STHs) refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The STHs make up for one of the two main divisions of the network done on the basis of holding time, with the other side being known as the “long-term holders” (LTHs). Historically, the former c…
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This week, the market's attention will once again be focused—if not entirely, then almost entirely—on the U.S. dollar. More precisely, on the U.S. news cycle surrounding the dollar. Let's recall that last week marked the beginning of a government shutdown, and a new vote in the Senate to extend funding deadlines failed. Republicans are still a few votes short of passing the budget for the next fiscal year. As a result, it's currently impossible to say with certainty when the shutdown will end. Meanwhile, the shutdown continues to evolve with increasingly complex political baggage. Democrats still demand that social and healthcare programs not be cut, effectively pushing f…
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USD/CAD On the daily chart of USD/CAD, a relatively weak, likely corrective divergence has formed. The price reversed from the target level of 1.3977. The MACD line is approaching the 1.3878 level at a steep upward angle. Likely, the intersection point of the MACD line with the target level will create a point of attraction and, at the same time, a potential reversal point for the next upward movement, as illustrated by the dashed line in the chart. A consolidation of the price below the 1.3878 level and also below the MACD line will deepen the decline to the 1.3810 level—either to create a false breakout or for a medium-term downward move. On the four-hour chart, the s…
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What's fueling the growth of the U.S. stock market? The S&P 500 continues to shrug off concerns, including rising valuations, the government shutdown, and even political unpredictability. The broad-based stock index just posted its 31st record high this year. Despite the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump, investors maintain a strong belief that the U.S. president will do everything within his power to support the markets. Additionally, there is the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle and the boom in artificial intelligence. Democrats and Republicans remain at a stalemate. Neither side seems willing to compromise and restore the full functioning of the U.S. gove…
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Even though Bitcoin reached a new all-time high over the weekend, crossing above the $125,700 mark, Swissblock reports record-breaking BTC outflows from exchanges. The last time such a large outflow was observed was in December 2022. However, at that time, Bitcoin was at its bottom near $15,000. Now, the situation is the opposite—it is trading near its all-time high. This paradox requires deeper analysis. Clearly, Bitcoin holders are not in a rush to take profits despite favorable market conditions. Instead, they see BTC as a long-term asset and prefer to store it off-exchange, in cold wallets. This behavior indicates confidence in further growth. Another possible expla…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the 1.3478 level (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin a downward move targeting 1.3405 – a historical support level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, the price may possibly begin an upward move toward 1.3416 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – down.Overall conclusion: Downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.3478 level (Friday's daily candle close), the price may begin a downward move targe…
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According to Morgan Stanley’s wealth unit, some clients should hold only a small slice of cryptocurrencies in their portfolios. The firm’s guidance suggests a cautious approach: up to 2% for more measured portfolios and up to 4% for those seeking higher growth. For accounts built around income or capital preservation, the guidance points to 0% crypto exposure. Small Stakes, Careful Rules The bank tells its advisors that crypto belongs in the “speculative” part of a plan. Based on reports, the recommended exposure is meant to be modest and controlled. Morgan Stanley prefers clients access crypto through exchange-traded products rather than buying every coin directly. T…
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EUR/USD Analysis: The euro quotes continue to move within an uptrend. Over the past two weeks, a downward zigzag has formed from the resistance zone. Currently, the price is moving between intermediate support and strong resistance, forming a correction. Its structure is not yet complete. Forecast: In the coming week, the recent decline is expected to finish near the calculated support area. After that, a reversal may form. In the second half of the week, the price is likely to resume its upward move, pushing the pair toward the calculated resistance zone. Potential Reversal Zones: Resistance: 1.1810/1.1860Support: 1.1660/1.1610Recommendations: Sales: Low potential, re…
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Swiss gambling watchdog tests FIFA’s blockchain ticket plan, putting a spotlight on where digital collectibles end and gambling begins. According to Swiss information, Switzerland’s gambling authority, Gespa, has initiated a preliminary investigation into FIFA’s blockchain-based “Right-to-Buy” ticket scheme for the 2026 World Cup, examining whether the product falls under Swiss gambling law. The tokens, sold on FIFA’s Collect marketplace, give holders a guaranteed window to buy match tickets once sales open. They can also be traded on a secondary market. Gespa said it is currently gathering information before deciding if further action is needed. DISCOVER: Top 20 Cry…
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On Monday, USD/JPY unexpectedly breached the 150 range, shocking traders with a 200-pip upward gap. The pair continues to show bullish momentum, ascending into new price territories. The last time the pair reached the 150.50 level was in early August, when traders were reacting to the outcome of the Bank of Japan's July meeting. Back then, the meeting results disappointed yen bulls: the central bank remained overly cautious and failed to signal a clear timeline for the next interest rate hike. As a result, the yen weakened, and USD/JPY hit multi-month highs, peaking at 150.92. The rally is also indirectly linked to the BOJ's anticipated inaction. However, the catalyst…
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On the weekly chart, the price has reversed from the upper boundary of the price channel. Multiple divergences have formed between the price and the Marlin oscillator. The Marlin signal line itself is moving within its own descending channel. On the daily chart, the price has turned downward precisely from the 138.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The next target is likely the 100.0% level, which corresponds to the peak of August 22. After that, a test of the MACD line at 1.6188 is possible. The Marlin oscillator is approaching the boundary of the bearish zone. If it manages to consolidate below this level (previous attempts have been unsuccessful), it could provide strong…
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The U.S. dollar resumed its decline yesterday after Republicans and Democrats once again failed to reach a budget agreement, prolonging the government shutdown. In the first half of the day, euro sellers did everything they could, leveraging France's political problems. However, later in the day, buyers regained control. The atmosphere of uncertainty—driven by snap elections in France—continues to weigh on the euro. Traders fear potential changes in the country's economic policy, which could hurt France's financial stability and eventually affect the entire eurozone. This morning, some important data will be published for the eurozone. German factory orders and France's t…
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Trade Analysis and EUR/USD Trading TipsThe price test at 1.1684 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential—especially after the strong downturn seen earlier. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Yesterday's trading session showed market participants attempting to exert downward pressure on the euro on the back of political instability in France. However, buyers eventually regained some control, providing temporary support for the single currency. The uncertainty triggered by the resignation of yet another French prime minister and the scheduling of early elections continues to weigh nega…
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Most Read: EUR/USD Slides on French Political Turmoil and USD Rebound, Lagarde/Fed Speakers Up Next The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision, called the Monetary Policy Review (MPR), this Wednesday, October 8th (at 2:00 PM New Zealand time). The meeting comes against a backdrop of disappointing data which included a contraction in economic activity. As a result, market participants cannot agree on how much the RBNZ will cut the main interest rate. Some predict a small cut of 25 basis points (a 0.25% drop), while others are forecasting a large, aggressive cut of 50 basis points (a 0.50% drop) to try and quickly rever…
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South African miner Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW, NYSE: SBSW) has taken another step in its decarbonization journey with the achievement of commercial operation at the Springbok solar photovoltaic project. Situated in Free State Province, Springbok represents Sibanye’s first solar wheeling project, and the second renewable energy project supplying its mine operations to reach commercial operation this year. The 150 megawatt alternating current (representing 195 MWp in peak direct current) solar project is developed and financed by the SOLA Group, a South African independent power producer. Sibanye is an anchor off-taker of the project and will procure 75MW (50%) …
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The Pi Network (PI) community is heating up after a major announcement revealed that new Decentralized Finance (DeFi) features are now live on the Testnet. With the cryptocurrency currently trading around $0.26 after crashing severely in the past few months, the report of new upgrades raises the question of whether these developments could trigger a strong enough comeback to spark a 900% rally back to $2.98. Could Pi Network’s New DeFi Upgrades Spark A Rally? Pi Network’s price faced a devastating correction over the course of eight months, plunging from its February peak of $2.98 to just around $0.26 today. The decline erased more than $18 billion in value in just six…
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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718 on the new Fibonacci grid, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and fell, consolidating below the support zone of 1.1645–1.1656. Thus, the decline may continue on Wednesday toward the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.1594. A rebound of the pair's rate from this level or a close above the 1.1645–1.1656 level would work in favor of the euro and some growth. Consolidation below the 1.1594 level will increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the next retracement level of 76.4% at 1.1517. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wa…
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XRP price started a fresh decline below $2.90. The price is now struggling and might continue to move down if it trades below $2.820. XRP price is slowly moving lower below the $2.90 zone. The price is now trading below $2.90 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.880 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh decline if it settles below $2.820. XRP Price Dips Further XRP price failed to stay above $3.00 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price declined below $2.950 and $2.920 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price tes…
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Until recently, most developers viewed the Ethereum mainnet as this unscalable yet irresistibly attractive layer on which it was impossible to launch a functional perpetual DEX. Ethereum has everything. It is the second most valuable network after Bitcoin and the first smart contracts platform. After dYdX, there has been no other major perpetual DEX on Ethereum until Lighter took over from Q3 2025. Lighter is moving numbers; big numbers taking on top centralized exchanges, and soon Binance. As of October 9, Lighter generated over $8.5Bn in trading volume in 24 hours. On this platform, traders are placing leveraged positions. Cumulatively, there is over $2.2Bn in open int…
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In the formative decades of the United States Mint, every coin struck carried more than face value — it carried a story. The 1853-O Seated Liberty Half Dollar, particularly the “Arrows and Rays” variety, stands as one of the most fascinating artifacts of mid-19th century American coinage. It tells a story of economic adaptation, artistic refinement, and the evolving identity of a growing nation. A Glimpse Into the Mid-19th Century Mint By 1853, the U.S. Mint was confronting challenges brought about by shifting metal values and the growing demands of commerce. Silver coins, long a foundation of everyday trade, had begun to vanish from circulation as their melt value excee…
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As the stablecoin sector sees global momentum grow, white label event management infrastructure provider Rhuna has raised $2 million in seed funding to expand stablecoin payments in the entertainment industry. Rhuna Raises $2 Million In Seed Round On Thursday, Romania-based infrastructure platform Rhuna announced the completion of a $2 million seed round, led by Aptos Labs, to continue providing on-chain payments, access, identity, and rewards infrastructure for the entertainment industry. The seed round saw the participation of Acc Ventures, X Ventures, NewTribe Capital, Keyrock, CoinarketCap Labs, FunFair, Lémanique, and other investors. Notably, Rhuna provides even…
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American Dollar Strengthens Against All Currencies The reason was the latest statements from U.S. Federal Reserve representatives, who indicated that, given the current government shutdown, further reductions in interest rates would be inappropriate. Against the backdrop of budgetary turmoil in Washington, where uncertainty about the future of fiscal policy continues to grow, such rhetoric from the U.S. central bank came as unexpected and, essentially, counterproductive under current circumstances. Traders who had expected a more flexible stance from the Fed reacted by selling euros and moving into dollar-denominated assets they considered more reliable. However, the long…
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On Thursday evening, the new leader of Japan's ruling party, Sanae Takaichi, attempted to reassure markets that she is not aiming for a weaker yen and that the Bank of Japan's policy would remain balanced. However, investors heard something else entirely. Following her remarks, the yen briefly strengthened but then resumed its downward trajectory, hitting new lows. Why did the words of the next prime minister fall flat? Where are the Ministry of Finance's limits of patience, and what does this mean for traders? Let us break it down. When words fall short: markets did not buy Takaichi's message On Thursday night, Sanae Takaichi made her first televised appearance since w…
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According to State Street’s 2025 global research, big investors are moving past trial runs and making clear bets on digital assets and blockchain. Nearly 60% of surveyed institutional investors say they plan to raise their crypto allocation in the next year. Average exposure is expected to double within three years, signaling firm plans rather than idle talk. Institutions Are Boosting Digital Asset Allocations Reports have disclosed that private markets are the first target. Private equity and private fixed income topped the list for tokenization, as firms look to open up illiquid holdings and make them easier to trade. By 2030, a majority of respondents expect betwee…
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