Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The wave structure of the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months, which is encouraging. Even when corrective waves form, the overall structure holds together. This makes accurate forecasting possible. It should be noted that wave patterns do not always look like textbook examples. At the moment, the pattern looks very clear. The upward segment of the trend continues to develop, while the news background continues to support mostly not the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is ongoing. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Market "dovish" expectations for the Fed's rate are growing. The market's assessment of Trump's first 6–7 month…
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Bitcoin price is correcting gains from $116,500. BTC is now consolidating and might start a fresh decline if it stays below the $116,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $115,000 zone. The price is trading below $115,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $115,350 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $116,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Struggles To Continue Higher Bitcoin price started a fresh upward wave above the $113,500 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $114,500 and $115,000 resistance levels. The…
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Gold set a new record this week as traders and investors anticipate more dovish actions from the Federal Reserve, including further rate cuts in the coming months. On Tuesday, the price of gold surpassed Monday's all-time high of about $3,685 per ounce, also supported by the US dollar dropping to its lowest level in over seven weeks. While this week's rate cut is already priced in, the Fed will also release its quarterly economic and rate projections—known as the "dot plot"—and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the decision. The latest surge in the precious metal indicates growing uncertainty about global economic stability and rising inflation e…
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According to a recent interview, Jake Claver, CEO of Digital Ascension Group, has pushed a strongly bullish case for XRP with aggressive price targets and a clear list of what he believes will move markets. Claver told host Paul Barron that a mix of policy shifts and market moves could send XRP far above its current trading level just under $3. Claver’s Bold Targets Claver put forward price ranges that would surprise many watchers: $10 to $13 as a plausible near-term target and $20 to $25 as a stretch outcome by year-end. He tied the $10–$13 scenario to approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund, saying he holds 90% confidence that an ETF will be approved. Claver also …
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Binance is in talks with the US Department of Justice to remove the independent monitor that was assigned after the company’s massive $4.3 billion settlement last year. The monitor’s job was to keep an eye on whether Binance was fixing the compliance issues that got it into trouble in the first place. These discussions are still underway, but the two sides appear to be moving closer to an agreement. Why the Monitor Was Put in Place The monitor wasn’t just there for show. It was installed to oversee Binance’s operations from the outside and make sure the company was actually improving its internal systems. Regulators wanted assurance that Binance was cleaning up its handl…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1821 price occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point for buying the euro in line with the trend. As a result, the pair reached the target level of 1.1848. The euro's confident climb was driven by encouraging data from Germany's ZEW institute, reflecting positive shifts in economic sentiment across the eurozone. The main driving force on the currency market then became expectations for continued dovish policy from the US Federal Reserve. Initial expectations pointed to a cautious Fed approach to rate cuts, but now many traders expect at leas…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe first test of the 1.3646 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move up from the zero mark, confirming this as the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose, stopping just short of the 1.3671 target. UK labor market data kept demand for the pound healthy in the first half of the day, after which dollar weakness returned. Despite the lack of strong positives in the published data, the mere resilience of the UK labor market—contrary to some analysts' expectations—supported the national currency. Investors who feared a sharp deterioration got a signal that the UK economy is…
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The market stepped back ahead of the announcement of the September FOMC meeting results. Some investors chose to lock in profits, as the meeting's outcome could spark volatility in the S&P 500. For the first time since 1988, there may be three dissenters voting for an immediate 50 bp rate cut—the very move Donald Trump is demanding. At the same time, a single misstep or slip of the tongue by Jerome Powell at the press conference could cause turmoil. Nearly thirty record highs in the S&P 500 are drawing investors back to the US stock market, which still looks expensive from a fundamental perspective. Valuation: Price to Average 10-Year Earnings It's no joke t…
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The NZD/USD pair is struggling to extend its recent two-day rally that set a new monthly high. Sellers are now appearing near the psychological level of 0.6000, but the decline remains limited as traders await the key decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Fed is expected to announce at least a 25-basis-point rate cut. Market focus is on updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, which should provide guidance on the future rate path. These signals will have a direct impact on the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar and may set a new impulse for the NZD/USD pair. Ahead of this important event, position adjustments ar…
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Trade review and tips for trading the euro The price test of 1.1845 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Weak inflation data in the euro area, which fell to the target of 2.0%, is holding back EUR/USD growth, as it gives the European Central Bank the freedom to cut rates promptly if necessary. For this reason, the ECB will most likely approach decision-making with caution, carefully assessing all possible risks. In the current economic situation, the most probable scenario is maintaining the existing policy, providing room for maneuver dependi…
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Today, the pound and the Australian dollar were traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. I tried to trade the yen through Momentum, but the result was mediocre. The released data showing a decline in the Consumer Price Index in the eurozone put pressure on the euro. However, falling inflation is not an unconditional signal for policy easing. Observers note that the slowdown in consumer price growth may be driven not only by the ECB's effective measures but also by weaker economic growth in the region and external factors such as lower energy prices. In this context, a premature rate cut could lead to undesirable consequences, something some ECB representatives have recen…
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Potential deep drop in the S&P 500 after the Fed's announcement Analysts forecast that the S&P 500 index could face a significant decline following the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates. The index is expected to potentially drop into the 5916–5973 range, posing risks not only of a short-term correction but also of a long-term recession for the U.S. economy. Investors are seriously concerned about the possibility of slower economic growth if the Fed opts for a more hawkish stance. The market remains cautious as it awaits the outcome of the meeting. [More at the link.] US stock indices close lower amid Fed rate decision anticipation Yesterday, m…
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Bitcoin is trading above the $115K level as the market enters a decisive week, with attention squarely on tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting. Investors prepare for potential policy changes, as they expect the Fed to announce its decision on interest rates—an outcome that could set the tone for global markets in the coming months. Top analyst Axel Adler explains that Bitcoin’s price action reflects cautious optimism. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, BTC is locked in a narrow corridor of $114.6K–$117.1K, with its high/low levels gradually shifting upward. Adler points out that this structure suggests a constructive trend, indicating that buyers are slowly gaining the upper hand…
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BHP (ASX, NYSE LSE: BHP) plans to close its Saraji South joint venture coal mine in Australia and lay off about 750 workers amid weak coal prices and high royalties in Queensland, media including the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) and The Wall Street Journal reported. Saraji is among five steelmaking coal mines operated in Queensland by BMA, a 50-50 joint venture between BHP and Mitsubishi Development Industry, Australia’s largest exporter of steelmaking coal. Saraji, located near the central Queensland town of Dysart, is to be shuttered in November. The state government’s coal tax has seen BMA pay A$0.67 for every dollar in royalties, or about eight ti…
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US Fed Interest Rate Decision: 4.25% vs +4.25% expected, meets consensusUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (September 2025): Breaking: The Federal Reserve has voted to cut rates in its September decision, bringing the target federal funds rate to 4.00-4.25%. The cut represents the first time since December 2024 that the Fed has voted to lower rates, being maintained at 4.5% for the entirety of 2025 - until today. Key takeaway: While the Federal Reserve remains conscious of inflation, poor economic data, especially recent labour reports, have forced the hand of the Federal Reserve into cutting rates. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of …
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The wave structure for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulsive wave sequence. The wave pattern is almost identical to EUR/USD, as the only "driver" remains the U.S. dollar. Demand for the dollar is declining across the market (in the medium term), so many instruments are showing nearly identical dynamics. At the moment, the formation of the assumed wave 5 continues, within which waves 1 and 2 have already been formed. The current wave structure raises no doubts. It should be remembered that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies, and not only trade policy. Occasionally, positive news emerges from the U.S., but the mar…
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Most Read: USD/JPY Technical: Yen eyeing a medium-term bullish breakout against USD from a 5-month range The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to keep its policy rate at 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, 2025. The future economic outlook remains cautious because of political uncertainty within Japan and challenges from international trade. …
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Gold stepped back ahead of the Fed's verdict. Few doubt that the central bank will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. However, the number of dissenters, signals about future monetary policy, and the dot plot forecast will be critical for XAU/USD. The precious metal had long been rising and reached record highs, but investors chose to play it safe before this key event. The best environment for gold is stagflation. It has never fallen in the 21st century during periods when U.S. inflation was rising while the Fed was cutting rates. In this regard, the acceleration of consumer prices in August to 2.9% y/y, coupled with expectations of a renewed monetary…
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The pound against the dollar continues testing the resistance level of 1.3650 (upper Bollinger Bands line on the D1 timeframe), despite the general strengthening of the greenback. After Tuesday's sharp drop to 95.96, the U.S. dollar index on Wednesday is attempting to recover at least partially. DXY has returned to the 96 range, and major dollar pairs adjusted accordingly, reflecting the greenback's rebound. However, GBP/USD stands apart: despite the dollar's recovery, the pound keeps pressing the 1.3650 barrier. The UK inflation report, published on Wednesday, favored GBP/USD buyers, as it confirmed persistently high inflation levels, giving the Bank of England ground…
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Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has stirred fresh talk that he may be stepping back into a bigger public role at Binance after a sudden change to his X profile and a string of developments around the exchange. Market moves and reports about talks with US law enforcement have fed the chatter, but legal limits remain a central part of the story. Profile Change Sparks Speculation Based on reports, CZ updated his X profile from “ex-@binance” back to “@binance,” a small public tweak that many traders and observers took as a hint he might reengage with the company he founded. The market reacted quickly. BNB, Binance’s native token, climbed and in some feeds was shown near $962.29 on Se…
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The SEC just made a move that could speed up how crypto ETFs get approved in the United States. Until now, getting a spot crypto ETF listed was a long process, often dragging on for months. But with the new changes, exchanges like Nasdaq, NYSE, and Cboe can follow a standard rulebook instead of starting from scratch every time. In some cases, that could cut the wait from eight months down to about two and a half. What’s Actually Changing Before this update, each crypto ETF had to go through a double approval process. The exchange had to get clearance, and the fund manager had to go through their own review. That meant lots of back and forth, uncertainty, and long delays.…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair on Wednesday showed movements similar to those of the EUR/USD pair. In the morning, the U.K. released an important inflation report, but its significance turned out to be as "bland" as other reports this week. Traders barely noticed it. Inflation in the U.K. remained at 3.8%, which will not affect today's Bank of England decision in any way. The British central bank will, without question, keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, and the main intrigue lies in how the votes of Monetary Policy Committee members will be distributed in the rate decision. Even if the BoE meeting turns out more "dovish" than expe…
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The BNB crypto price has officially blasted past the $1,000 mark, flipping Solana and sparking excitement memecoin scene on BSC. This milestone is backed by hard data. As of today, the BNB crypto price sits near $1,015, while Bitcoin holds firm at $116K following the Fed’s 25bps rate cut. Combined with a 148% daily surge in BSC-based crypto memecoin volumes, this feels like the early stirrings of a serious market rotation. Make no mistake, BNB crypto price rally is a signal. BNB’s current $138B market cap has now edged out Solana’s $134B, according to CoinGecko, reclaiming its #5 spot. (source – CoinGecko) While both chains face critiques around decentralization, BS…
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The New Zealand dollar has posted sharp losses on Thursday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5904, down 0.97%. New Zealand's GDP slides by 0.97% New Zealand's economy took a tumble in the second quarter, declining 0.9% q/q. This was a sharp downturn from the Q1 gain of 0.9% and below the market estimate of -0.3%. The economy has contracted in three of the last five quarters. Annually, GDP declined 0.6%, unchanged from the first quarter and well below the market estimate of 0%. The New Zealand dollar is down 1% on the soft GDP reading. The GDP report showed broad weakness across the economy as construction and manufacturing posted declines and services were…
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Bitcoin (BTC) is holding near $117,500, up about 6.1% over the past two weeks. However, recent data from Binance shows that BTC’s current price action is largely supported by retail investors, while whales have been noticeably absent. Bitcoin Holds $117,500 Amid High Retail Inflows According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin is hovering around the $117,500 price level, supported by active inflows from retail investors. Notably, large whale inflows have been completely absent, indicating that the current market is being driven by individuals more than by large wallets. Inflows ranging from 0 to 0.001 BTC recorded approximately 97,000 BTC…
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