Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12254 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British PoundThe test of the price level at 1.3353 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. A second test at 1.3353 occurred while the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing the execution of Scenario No. 2: selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 15 pips. In the afternoon, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, along with data on changes in personal spending and income, is expected to be released. Shortly afterward, figures for the University of Michiga…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice for Trading the British Pound The test of the 1.3337 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by just over 15 points. Pound buyers became active despite the lack of significant fundamental data from the UK. Traders are betting that the regulator will be forced to maintain a wait-and-see stance on interest rates, despite concerns about slowing UK GDP growth, in order to keep persistently high inflation under control. In the second half of the day, we expect the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, as well as a new economic…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice on trading the British pound The test of the 1.3104 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pound's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound and stayed out of the market. The euphoria that followed yesterday's Bank of England decision to keep interest rates unchanged—while hinting at possible policy easing later this year—proved short-lived. Despite the Bank's efforts to maintain stability, the key factor driving the pound right now remains political uncertainty. The incomplete budget process poses significant risks for the economy, as the lack of a clear f…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound The price test at 1.3408 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For that reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test of this level, with the MACD in the oversold zone, triggered Scenario #2 (buy setup), resulting in a rise of more than 40 points in the pair. Data released by the UK Office for National Statistics indicate fragile yet noticeable economic growth. After a period of stagnation and recession fears, the August figures inspire cautious optimism. The increase in industrial production, in particular, points to a …
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Trade Analysis and Guidance for the British Pound The price test at 1.3442 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound, which resulted in a drop of more than 30 points for the pair. The market is now waiting for new hints from Alberto Musalem regarding the future of interest rates. His previous remarks were cautiously optimistic, but investors are hoping for clearer signals this time. Of particular importance will be his assessment of inflation persistence and labor market conditions. Any mention of a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth could trigger a sell-off of the dollar.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the British Pound The test of 1.3472 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test of 1.3472 coincided with MACD being in the overbought area, which triggered scenario #2 for selling. The UK Manufacturing PMI released today confirmed analysts' forecasts, providing no momentum for further GBP/USD growth. The data matched expectations, indicating no unexpected changes in the country's manufacturing activity. This anticipated outcome nullified previous attempts of the pound to strengthen against the U.S. dolla…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the British PoundThe first test of the 1.3349 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 1.3349 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, which allowed scenario #2 for selling the pound to materialize, resulting in a 15-point decline in the pair. News about a decrease in the U.K. industrial order balance limited the pound's upward potential. This signal, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity, made investors more cautious toward the British currency. The data, which came in worse than expected, reminded m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice on the British Pound The test of the 1.3311 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test of 1.3311 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, which allowed Scenario #2 (buying the pound) to play out, resulting in a 30-point rise. Today we are expecting the release of the U.S. Leading Indicators Index. Only a sharp decline in this figure would serve as a warning signal that could trigger new pound purchases. However, it's worth remembering that the pound today is not an impregnable …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade breakdown and guidance on trading the British pound The test of the 1.3487 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The absence of U.K. statistics allowed pound buyers to show a modest increase. The weakening of the U.S. dollar, amid mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's further policy and the government shutdown, supports the British currency. In the near term, the GBP/USD pair's dynamics will depend on the flow of macroeconomic data from both countries and the rhetoric of central bank officials. In the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound The price test at 1.3144 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound and resulting in a nearly 20-point decline in the pair. The increase in the UK Nationwide Housing Price Index above economists' forecasts did not help pound buyers. This may be due to the fact that the market has already priced in a moderate economic recovery, while investors remain focused on longer-term risks. Although the Nationwide data were positive, they failed to change the overall bearish sentiment toward the pound. In the second half of the d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe test of 1.3446 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for buying the pound and resulted in a 20-point rise. Weaker growth in the U.K. services sector in September negatively affected the British pound. The Services PMI, published today, came in below analysts' expectations, raising concerns about a slowdown in economic growth. The decline in service-sector activity, which is a key part of the U.K. economy, points to weakening domestic demand and consumer spending. This could push the Bank of England toward a more dov…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice for trading the British pound The test of 1.3469 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped toward the target level of 1.3440. A sharp decline in the Halifax House Price Index in the UK brought renewed pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The published data, showing an unexpected drop in housing prices, intensified concerns about the state of the British economy and the prospects for further monetary tightening by the Bank of England. Investors closely monitoring financial stability indicators viewed this report as a warnin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice for trading the British pound The price test of 1.3399 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound and resulting in a decline toward the target level of 1.3362. The pound's latest drop confirms its position in a deep bearish market, marked by yet another update of the weekly low. Investors and traders are cautiously watching developments, trying to determine where the bottom lies and when at least some recovery might begin. Economic factors such as inflation, high interest rates, and slowing growth continue to pressure the British curren…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and recommendations for trading the British pound The test of 1.3350 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the pound and stayed out of trades. In the second half of the day, markets will be primarily driven by U.S. data on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and changes in household spending. These indicators are key measures of inflationary pressure and consumer demand, making them critically important for assessing the current state of the U.S. economy. Increased attention to the PCE index is due…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and tips for trading the pound The test of 1.3427 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly down from the zero line, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test of 1.3427 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed Scenario #2 for buying the pound to play out, resulting in growth of more than 20 points. In the second half of the day, weak U.S. pending home sales data is unlikely to pressure the dollar, but dovish comments from Fed officials Christopher Waller and John Williams are another matter. An unexpected drop in sales would be an unpleasant su…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound The test of 1.3430 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. U.K. GDP data matched economists' forecasts. Expectations had been built on assumptions of stronger-than-expected growth in the British economy, which fueled speculative buying. However, the actual figures disappointed optimistic investors. The pound sterling, already under pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar, showed a restrained reaction and lacked the momentum needed to continue its upward movement. During the U.S. trading session…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound The test of the 1.3084 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell by more than 35 points. The pound collapsed after a weak UK Services PMI, which dropped to 50.5 points. The decline in the Services PMI is certainly an alarming signal. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The 50.5 reading suggests that growth has nearly stalled, and the outlook for the near future appears highly uncertain. Experts cite high inflation—whi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD on 5M The GBP/USD currency pair experienced movement both up and down on Monday. The reasons for these movements were similar to those affecting the EUR/USD pair. The ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. was weak, which led to a rise in the pair in the first half of the day, as some market participants likely received insider information about the index ahead of time. The pair returned to the initial positions around 1.3201-1.3212 by the end of the day, and the movement over the past several days now strongly resembles a flat. From a technical perspective, the upward trend has been disrupted, as the price consolidated below the trend line on Monday.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair initially rose, only to decline on Thursday. Yesterday, reports were released in the U.S. that the market had eagerly anticipated, although we warned in previous articles that these data might not be particularly significant for either the Federal Reserve or the market. This is mainly because the figures published were for September, while it is now almost December. Moreover, the reports themselves raise many questions regarding their accuracy. The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.4%, while the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector increased significantly by 119,000. But that's not all. After th…
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GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD pair continued to show a decline on Thursday. This week, the British currency has been falling like a stone, and the reasons for this movement still raise many questions. We do not believe that Rachel Reeves's remarks about the UK moving closer to the European Union provide sufficient grounds to abandon the pound sterling. We also do not think that the "dovish" decision of the Fed and Powell's refusal to promise the market a rate cut in December, in the complete absence of key reports, are strong arguments for buying the dollar. However, the flat on the daily timeframe continues. The price has dropped to its lower boundary —now, attenti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD pair made a final push towards the nearest target area of 1.3369-1.3377 on Thursday. It was unable to break through this area on the first attempt, which is not surprising given that this is a resistance zone. Moreover, the British pound has already risen considerably this week, and we have no objections to it. Notably, this rise occurred before the release of the crucial ADP report in the U.S., but this does not change the essence of the situation. The key takeaway is that the British pound is indeed rising, which we anticipated. The upward trend remains relevant, as indicated by the trend line. In the medium term, we continue to ex…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD (5M) The GBP/USD pair continued to correct on Friday with minimal volatility, staying within the upward trend. Macroeconomic data from the US triggered a market reaction of only 25 pips, and the day's overall volatility was again minimal. In the UK, the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop was absent. While we would like to say that the upcoming week will be defining for the market and that traders will wake up to strong trending movements, the likelihood of this is low. Yes, the FOMC meeting is indeed a significant event. However, the market is already mentally prepared for a third consecutive rate cut. Therefore, the primary intrigue remains Jerome…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair declined slightly once again, but the moment of truth is approaching. Price action is now very close to the second successive descending trendline, which could be breached as early as this week. The Ichimoku Kijun-sen line is also nearby, so both technical barriers may be overcome simultaneously. We continue to view the current downturn in the pair as completely illogical and unjustified. Over the past 2–3 weeks, there hasn't been enough negative news for the British pound—or positive data for the dollar—to warrant such sustained pressure on GBP/USD. Many of the reasons behind this move seem fabricated. For instance…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD.
por Ben GrahamThe GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, a process that began back in early November and was renewed last week after the FOMC meeting. The chart picture continues to point to bull dominance, and the bulls are living up to expectations. A total of three buy signals were generated, each of which traders could have traded according to my recommendations. Now all that remains is to wait and observe. On the other hand, the pair shows no significant bearish patterns or strong resistance zones that would suggest a chart reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar. However, the news background could easily turn the pair downward this week—and more than once—since there…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
This Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair is attracting buyers after yesterday's mixed price action, holding steadily above the key 1.3300 round level. However, no aggressive buying is observed, as traders prefer to remain cautious ahead of this week's major central bank events. On Wednesday, at the end of its two-day meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision. It is widely expected that the Fed will lower borrowing costs once again. This outlook is limiting the U.S. dollar's recent recovery from December lows and is pushing GBP/USD higher. In addition, last week the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast f…
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