Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12254 tópicos neste fórum
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At the start of the new week today, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers, although it lacks bullish confidence, despite holding above the key support levels of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The U.S. dollar failed to extend its modest rebound from a more-than-two-month low on Friday and remains the key factor supporting the GBP/USD pair. Dollar bulls have been reluctant to open new long positions amid expectations of further easing of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy. Despite the Fed's cautious hints last week, traders continue to price in the possibility of two rate cuts next year, as signs of weakenin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the last trading day of the week, the GBP/USD pair is halting yesterday's correction from the area around 1.3440. However, it is still struggling to attract significant buying interest. The pound is being supported by the Bank of England's recently adopted measures, which have boosted expectations regarding its future policy. Despite the split vote (5–4), the 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.75% is being perceived by the market as a signal of a dovish approach, especially after the unexpected drop in inflation earlier this week. These factors reduce pressure on monetary policy expectations in the UK and trigger a positive reaction from investors. At the same time, U.S. dat…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the GBP/USD pair starts the week with a bearish gap amid broad U.S. dollar strength and is struggling to hold on to Friday's strong gains. Spot prices show no further upward momentum and remain below the 1.3500 level. Over the weekend, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader. Since Takaichi is known as a supporter of loose fiscal policy, this choice increases expectations that the Bank of Japan will postpone raising rates, which may trigger a significant sell-off of the Japanese yen. As a result, this supports the U.S. dollar's rise, which is a key pressure factor on the GBP/USD pair. However, the dollar's upward potential i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At the moment, the pair has failed to hold above the round level of 1.3400, which it briefly broke during the Asian session. From a technical standpoint, the recent repeated failures near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) favor the bears in GBP/USD. Moreover, the negative oscillators on the daily chart suggest that any subsequent rise may quickly fade and should be viewed as an opportunity to sell. Therefore, to confirm a broader bullish move, it would be prudent to wait for sustained momentum above the 1.3484 level and above the 100-period SMA before opening long positions. Buying beyond the psychological level of 1.3500 would lift GBP/USD above the supply level…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, Monday, the pair is trading in a sideways consolidation with a slight bullish bias, supported by dovish expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates, which are keeping the U.S. dollar under pressure. Global risk appetite has increased notably after U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from his threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1. This comes amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut lending rates two more times this year, as well as concerns over a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which negatively affects the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset. In addition, expectations that the Bank of England will keep in…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, Friday, the GBP/USD pair continues to draw buying interest for the third straight session, gradually moving away from the lowest level since early August — reached earlier this week in the 1.3250–1.3245 level. This comes against the backdrop of a broadly weaker US dollar. Recent disappointing UK employment data have reinforced expectations of a gradual reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England. These factors, along with doubts about the country's fiscal policy ahead of the autumn budget in November, are limiting the pound's active appreciation against the US dollar. From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD pair began the new week with a moderate tone following last week's gains and is currently holding confidently above the key psychological level of 1.3400. At the same time, the mixed fundamental backdrop calls for caution among bullish traders. The U.S. dollar is struggling to build on its Friday rebound amid expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. In addition, economic risks — linked to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, ongoing global trade tensions, and signs of weakness in the U.S. economy — are forcing dollar bulls to adopt a defensive stance. Meanwhile, disappointing UK labor market data, published last week, have reinforc…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD pair reversed a slight decline against the backdrop of moderate dollar weakness but has so far failed to hold above the round level of 1.3100. However, uncertainty regarding the upcoming UK budget and rising expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Bank of England remain a restraining factor for spot price growth. From a technical perspective, the downward break of the important 200-day simple moving average (SMA) last month was seen as a key trigger for bears. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart remain deep in negative territory, confirming the likelihood of sellers appearing just above the round level of 1.3100, near the 9-day EMA. Surpass…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, GBP/USD continues its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading slightly below the 1.3200 round level. Traders are anticipating that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, will present the autumn budget later in the day. It is expected that the Chancellor will announce new tax increases amounting to tens of billions of pounds. This budget will serve as a significant test of investor confidence in government bonds and for lawmakers supporting increased spending on social programs. A more responsible fiscal policy could strengthen long-term confidence in UK assets, which in turn would provide moderate support to the pound. It has been just over a …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday during the North American session, the GBP/USD pair rose sharply, breaking above the 1.3300 level. This growth was driven by market expectations of a more "dovish" Federal Reserve policy amid intensifying rumors that Kevin Hassett, a White House economic adviser, could be appointed as the new Fed Chair in place of Jerome Powell. The British pound strengthened significantly as the U.S. dollar weakened, pressured by speculation surrounding the potential new Fed leadership and weak U.S. labor market data. The dollar also continues to decline following the release of today's disappointing U.S. economic data. Specifically, the U.S. ISM Services PMI for November an…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The British pound is showing gains against the U.S. dollar during the North American session and has moved into a consolidation phase, despite U.S. labor market data indicating stability, while expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut remain high. As markets digest the positive U.S. employment figures and maintain expectations of a December Fed rate cut, the British pound is holding firm. Recent U.S. economic data showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits came in below experts' forecasts for the week ending November 29. Initial jobless claims totaled 191,000, below the forecast of 220,000 and even below last week's upwardly revised figure of 2…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD pair continues to decline, falling below the key 1.3200 level amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, is rising in response to the relatively hawkish outlook delivered by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. At the same time, there are ongoing concerns that the continuing U.S. government shutdown could negatively impact macroeconomic data, which limits the dollar's upward potential — thereby creating somewhat more favorable conditions for the pound in the GBP/USD pair. Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed market expectations for a rate cut in December, and heightened demand for …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At the start of the new week, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers after a prolonged decline, trading above the psychological level of 1.3100. However, fundamental factors clearly tilt the market toward a bearish outlook and confirm the likelihood of a continuation of the downward trend that has persisted for about a month and a half. The U.S. dollar remains firm near a three-month high after Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a decisively hawkish tone last week. This remains the key factor weighing on GBP/USD. In addition, Powell dismissed market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, helping offset concerns about an economic slowdown amid the o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is in demand, attracting buyers around 1.3585. As expected, the Federal Reserve lowered rates for the first time since December 2024 by 25 basis points, setting the overnight lending range at 4.00–4.25%. In addition, the regulator confirmed the need for two more rate cuts before the end of the year, given the weakening U.S. labor market. However, the market's initial reaction was short-lived after comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the press conference. Powell stated that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, and the rate cut should be viewed as a risk management measure. He stressed that there is no need for rapid rate chang…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For the second consecutive day, GBP/USD is showing positive dynamics against the backdrop of U.S. dollar weakness, linked to rising expectations of further Fed rate cuts in October following the release of U.S. inflation data for August. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year in August, in line with analysts' forecasts, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis published on Friday. The core PCE index, excluding food and energy, stood at 2.9%, also matching expectations. In September, the Fed cut the key rate by 25 basis points for the first time, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range. According to the CME FedWatch…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair bounced off the resistance zone of 1.3352–1.3362 on Thursday, then reversed in favor of the US dollar, posting a slight decline. Trader activity was very low due to a weak informational backdrop. On Friday morning, the pound is aiming to return to the 1.3352–1.3362 zone. A new bounce from this zone will once again favor the US dollar and lead to a decline towards the 61.8% corrective level at 1.3294. A consolidation above this zone will increase the likelihood of further growth towards the 1.3425 level. The wave situation has transformed into a "bullish" stance. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The pound has been actively rising against the dollar for the second consecutive week, reflecting the overall weakness of the American currency. Last week, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 30th figure and is now approaching the resistance level at 1.3200 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on H4 and, simultaneously, the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same time frame). The dollar reacted weakly to the news that U.S. senators had preliminarily agreed to adopt a temporary budget, thus ending the shutdown. After a minor decline (only 30 pips), the GBP/USD pair reversed sharply and hit its one-and-a-half-week high at 1.3190. The dollar did not benefit from t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the market may start moving upward toward 1.3593 – the upper fractal (yellow dashed line). Upon testing this line, the price may then move downward toward 1.3582 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 11, 2025). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may sta…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Tuesday, the market from the level of 1.3595 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) may continue upward movement with the target at 1.3624 – historical resistance level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, the price may begin moving downward with the target at 1.3593 – upper fractal (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3595 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may start movi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, from the level of 1.3642 (yesterday's daily close), the market may begin moving downward toward 1.3626 — a historical support level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue moving upward toward 1.3682 — the 161.8% target level (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: On Wednesday, from the level of 1.3642 (yesterday's daily close), the market may continue…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, from the 1.3622 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving downward toward the target of 1.3548 – upper fractal (red dotted line). From this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.3583 – the 8 EMA (thin blue line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.General conclusion: bearish trend. Alternative scenario: from the 1.3622 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may start moving downward toward 1.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, the market from the level of 1.3551 (yesterday's daily candle close) may continue moving downward toward the target of 1.3482 – the 61.8% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.3501 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – up.General conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3551 (yesterday's daily candle close), the p…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, from the 1.3442 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may continue moving downward toward 1.3383 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). From this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.3405 – a historical resistance level (light blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.3442 level (yesterday's daily close), the price may start moving do…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the level of 1.3506 (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward with a target of 1.3469 – the 21-day EMA (black thin line). Upon testing this line, the price may begin moving upward with a target of 1.3486 – the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – down.Overall conclusion: Downtrend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3506 (Friday's daily candle close), the price may start moving downward with a …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Tuesday, from the level of 1.3541 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving upward with the target at 1.3593 – the upper fractal (yellow dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may then move downward with the target at 1.3565 – the upper fractal (daily candle from August 18, 2025). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – up;Volumes – up;Candlestick analysis – up;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – up;Weekly chart – up.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3541 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may start moving upward with the target a…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
