Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12272 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1740 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips, and that was the end of the movement. An unexpected decline in U.S. employment, as indicated by ADP data, with a drop of 32,000 jobs, triggered an active phase of selling in the U.S. dollar, which in turn supported the euro's exchange rate. However, the negative labor market data was partially offset by positive figures from the manufacturing PMI index. This combination of conflicting signals created a climate of heigh…
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The U.S. dollar has once again come under pressure, this time due to another round of weak fundamental data, which triggered a rally in risk assets — including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. The sharp drop in U.S. private-sector employment, as reported by ADP (down 32,000), led to an active sell-off of the dollar and strengthened the euro, pound, and yen. However, this disappointing labor market data was partially offset by a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI, which limited the dollar's downside momentum. These conflicting signals created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market. On one hand, job losses highlight potential vulnerabilities in the U…
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has plummeted recently. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Value RVT Is Approaching Cycle Lows In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT of the short-term holders. The Realized Value RVT is an oscillator that measures the ratio between the sum of profits and losses being realized by BTC investors, and the total transfer volume on the network. In simple terms, what the metric tells us about is whether holders are participating in a high or low amount of profit-taking/loss-taking compared to…
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Key takeaways BoJ policy shift intact: Japan’s central bank is still moving gradually toward policy normalization, supporting renewed yen strength.Tankan survey improvement: Q3 2025 Tankan survey for large manufacturers improved to 14, its highest since Q4 2024, boosting economic confidence.Yield spread narrowing: US-Japan yield differentials are shrinking, making US Treasuries less attractive versus JGBs, pressuring USD/JPY lower.Technical setup: A break below 146.30 may trigger a medium-term bearish breakout, exposing deeper downside targets. After trading in a choppy sideways range for almost five months since late April 2025, the Japanese yen is likely on the br…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are considered significant. There are no reports planned in the UK or Germany. In the eurozone, only the unemployment rate will be published, and in the U.S., weekly jobless claims are scheduled. All of these reports are considered secondary and are likely to trigger only a mild market reaction. As a result, both currency pairs, which have recently shown lackluster movements, may experience low volatility and range-bound behavior today. Fundamental Events Analysis: Very few fundamental events are expected on Thursday — just a few speeches from European Cent…
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Following a massive Q3 performance, Solana (SOL) has kicked off “Uptober” with a bounce, attempting to reclaim a crucial area as support to continue its bullish rally. Some analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency is ready to challenge the recent highs and enter a new price discovery phase. Solana Starts ‘Uptober’ In The Green After the recent market correction, Solana has started the new quarter with a 7.3% bounce from yesterday’s lows. Last week, the cryptocurrency fell from its recent highs and hit a local low of $190 after closing below the $200 support for the first time in nearly a month. Over the weekend, the altcoin reclaimed the crucial barrier and atte…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also influenced by macroeconomic factors. Since there were no major UK data releases during the day, the British pound avoided participating in the early-morning decline that affected other currencies. Given the generally unfavorable macro and fundamental backdrop for the U.S. dollar, the pound continued its steady appreciation. The selloff in the dollar accelerated after the release of the extremely weak U.S. ADP employment report. The subsequent ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly better, which helped the dollar recover briefly. However, it's important to remember that the U.S. governme…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade erratically, effectively moving sideways. The primary reason behind this choppy and unattractive behavior was the macroeconomic environment. Both the EU and the U.S. released several significant reports, each triggering its own market reaction. The day began with euro area inflation data, which, unlike German inflation, did not exceed forecasts. This disappointed traders and triggered a decline in the value of the euro. Later during the U.S. session, an extremely weak ADP labor market report was published. This report could serve as the main reference going forward if…
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[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Thursday, October 02, 2025] With the RSI in the Extreme-Bullish area and both EMAs showing a Golden Cross, #NDX today has the potential to rally toward its nearest resistance level. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 25064.1 2. Resistance. 1 : 24920.6 3. Pivot : 24663.9 4. Support. 1 : 24520.4 5. Support. 2 : 24263.7 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If #NDX breaks and closes above 24663.9, it could move toward 25064.1. Momentum Extension Bias: If 25,064.1 is successfully breached and closes above it, the Nasdaq 100 index could test the 25320.8 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if #NDX drops and c…
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[Platinum] – [Thursday, October 02, 2025] With all technical indicators pointing to bullish conditions, such as the RSI being at a Neutral-Bullish level and both EMAs forming a Golden Cross, today #PLF has the potential to strengthen toward its nearest resistance level. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1654.7 2. Resistance. 1 : 1624.8 3. Pivot : 1600.7 4. Support. 1 : 1570.8 5. Support. 2 : 1546.7 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If Platinum breaks and closes above 1600.7, it has the opportunity to test the next level at 1624.8. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1624.8 is breached and closes above that level, #PLF could strengthen further up to 1654.7. …
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Early in the European session, gold is trading around 3,865, below the 21SMA, and within the uptrend channel formed on September 19. Gold reached a high at about 3,895. From this level, we have seen a series of technical corrections. So, the instrument is likely to continue its decline until reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel around 3,840. If gold consolidates above 3,870 in the coming hours, we could expect a resumption of the uptrend. Hence, the metal could reach 3,906 around +2/8 Murray. On the other hand, while the gold price is trading below 3,870, the outlook could be negative, and a technical correction is expected that could push the price to the Murray le…
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Bitcoin is trading around $118,750, around 6/8 Murray, and within the bullish trend channel formed on September 28. On the H1 chart, we can see that gold reached the 119,350 level, which coincided with the top of the bullish trend channel. In the coming hours, we can expect a technical correction for Bitcoin, which could reach the 21SMA around 117,247, and potentially even reach support at the bottom of the bullish trend channel, currently at 116,750. If Bitcoin consolidates above 118,750, it is expected to reach the top of the bullish trend channel around 119,566 and potentially surpass the psychological level of $120,000. On the other hand, if bullish strength prevails …
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The euro is trading around 1.1735, above the 200 EMA, above the 21 SMA, and above the 8/8 Murray, which could indicate a recovery. However, EUR/USD is under bearish pressure as it is located within a downtrend channel. If the euro falls below the 8/8 Murray and below the 200 EMA in the coming hours, this could indicate a further bearish movement. Therefore, EUR/USD is expected to reach the 7/8 Murray at 1.1596 in the short term. A sharp break above 1.1765 could favor a recovery for the euro. In the short term, it could reach +1/8 Murray at 1.1840 and even reach +2/8 Murray at 1.1962. The eagle indicator on the H4 chart is showing a positive signal for the euro, so a recov…
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Solana (SOL) shook off a swift sell-off to $205 on Tuesday, rebounding above $209–$216 as institutional-sized wallets scooped the dip while over-levered retail longs were flushed. The slide coincided with U.S. shutdown jitters across risk assets, but crypto quickly mirrored equities’ intraday recovery. Order-flow dashboards (anchored CVD in the $1M–$10M bucket) show pro buyers adding on weakness, while funding briefly flipped negative—an attractive setup that encouraged fresh longs in spot and perps. Solana ETF Speculation Keeps Bulls Optimistic Ahead of October 10 The next major milestone for Solana is set to arrive on October 10, when the SEC is expected to decide…
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Ethereum price started a steady increase above $4,320. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,400 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $4,250 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance at $4,180 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,400 and $4,420. Ethereum Price Gains Over 5% Ethereum price remained supported above the $4,120 level and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,250 and $4,3…
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Will Central Bank Gold Buying Push Prices Higher? A Practical, Data-Informed Guide Executive Summary Central bank gold buying has become a durable, multi-year force. It has coincided with record price levels and helped support demand even when ETFs saw outflows, yet it does not set a guaranteed “floor.” Real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and risk appetite still steer near-term moves. Even so, official-sector buying adds meaningful downside support and helps rallies stick. For investors, especially retirees seeking resilience, treat official purchases as a tailwind, not a timing signal. A modest, well-managed allocation can cushion drawdowns and capture upside when ma…
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Private Equity for Retirees: Should You Add It to Savings? Executive Summary Private equity for retirees can add long-term growth and a layer of diversification beyond public markets. However, it demands patience, higher fees, and a healthy cash buffer. For many households, a small, carefully chosen slice can help; for others, liquid and transparent holdings remain the smarter fit. This guide shows when PE belongs in a retirement plan, how to size it, and how to evaluate options without risking financial security. What Is Private Equity? A Plain-English Definition Private equity (PE) is simply owning pieces of companies that don’t trade on public exchanges. Managers …
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Inflation Risk in Retirement: How Millionaires Protect Their Portfolios Executive Summary Rising prices quietly chip away at what your money can buy. Over decades, that adds up fast. To manage inflation risk in retirement, pair smart asset allocation with steady spending rules and tax-aware withdrawals. This guide uses plain English, simple math, and a clear, step-by-step plan you can apply now to manage inflation risk in retirement. What Is Inflation Risk in Retirement? Inflation risk is the chance that higher prices reduce the real value of your savings and income. Your account balance might look steady, yet its buying power can slip. That matters even more once payche…
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Is a Safe Deposit Box for Gold Really Safe? A Practical, Data-Informed Guide Executive Summary A safe deposit box for gold can be a secure, low-visibility choice for long-term holders who don’t need 24/7 access. However, the FDIC doesn’t insure box contents, banks usually disclaim liability, and access is limited to branch hours. You’ll likely need private coverage; keep receipts, photos, and appraisals, and set up estate access according to state law. Quick Answer: When a Safe Deposit Box Makes Sense The question isn’t “safe or unsafe,” but “safe for which goals?” A safe deposit box for gold shines when your priority is quiet, durable storage rather than rapid trading o…
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Impact of Foreign Taxes on Retirement Income Executive Summary If you receive income across borders in retirement, foreign taxes on retirement income can shrink your cash flow, or, with planning, become mostly a non-issue. This guide shows how the foreign tax credit (FTC), tax treaties, residency rules, and smart asset placement work together to reduce double taxation and keep your withdrawal plan steady. Additionally, we break the rules into clear steps, add simple examples, and point to the forms you’ll actually use. With the right structure, you can turn complex international tax issues into repeatable tasks that protect your income. Who Should Read This This artic…
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401(k) after leaving job: Your 4 Best Options (and How to Choose) Executive Summary: What you do with a 401(k) after leaving job affects taxes, fees, and control for years. You generally have four choices: leave the money, roll to an IRA, roll into a new employer’s plan, or cash out. This guide explains each path, compares them side by side, and gives you a simple checklist so you can act confidently without overpaying taxes or fees. Note: This article is general education, not individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Why the 401(k) decision matters right after leaving a job The choice you make in the first few weeks can compound for decades. Costs, access rules…
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Executive Summary Budgeting in retirement isn’t about penny-pinching. It’s about building a steady, flexible paycheck you control. The seven rules below turn savings into income, coordinate taxes and healthcare, and add guardrails so you can adjust with confidence as life changes. In practice, you’ll separate essentials from lifestyle wants, automate a monthly “paycheck,” and keep a cash buffer for market dips. With a tax-smart plan and simple check-ins, your spending stays predictable while your lifestyle remains adaptable. Why Budgeting in Retirement Is Different Before you stop working, paychecks arrive on schedule and saving is the lever you pull. Afterward, your “p…
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So, the U.S. government shutdown is now a fact. However, the market — as expected — did not panic or start "selling America." On the contrary, the S&P 500 rose by 0.34%, and the U.S. dollar index slipped by a symbolic 0.03%. What did change meaningfully were U.S. Treasury yields — the 5-year yield fell from 3.73% to 3.67%, and the 10-year yield from 4.15% to 4.09%. During the previous shutdown in December 2018, the markets also remained calm; equities continued to rally, and although the euro jumped 200 points at the peak of fear, it ended the 35-day shutdown only 60 points higher. Treasury yields also steadily declined back then. What's different this time is that th…
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Since the start of the U.S. budget crisis, the British pound has perked up, reaching the key resistance level of 1.3525. However, this optimism has not been supported by external markets or technical indicators — the Marlin oscillator remains weak and stuck in negative territory. As a result, the pound has retraced more than half of its upward progress. Today, the pair opened above the MACD line. If the upward movement gains momentum, Marlin is likely to enter positive territory soon. A firm break above 1.3525 would open the path toward the next target at 1.3631. Despite the political instability in the United States, the pound has been technically developing within a b…
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The Australian dollar remained calm in response to yesterday's news about the suspension of funding for several U.S. government agencies, continuing the upward movement that began three days ago. On the daily timeframe, the price remains above both key indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is in the positive zone, taking a brief pause before potentially continuing the uptrend. The target at 0.6668 remains open, and a firm consolidation above this level could lead to further gains toward 0.6755. The alternative (bearish) scenario would require a sustained move below the MACD line (at 0.6564). In that case, the downside target opens at 0.6450. In the 4-hour timefram…
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