Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Most Read: Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview: AI, Azure, and Outlook USD/CAD is eyeing its 5th consecutive day of gains, but with two Central Bank meetings to navigate will such a move materialize? Bank of Canada (BoC) Keep Rates on Hold The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate steady at 2.75% in July 2025, as expected. This marks the third hold after cutting rates by 2.25 percentage points over seven decisions. The Bank said it couldn’t provide clear guidance on the economy due to uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs, which continue to disrupt global trade. Despite the challenges, Canada’s economy has remained resilient, with strong employment and positive growth p…
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Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Hovers at $3350/oz, Russia-Ukraine Developments in Focus USD/CAD advances in the US session, trading above the 100-day MA as the potential for further gains grows. There are of course headwinds for the pair which could scupper a move higher in the coming days. Geopolitical Risk The important meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska ended on Friday without any major progress. However, Trump said on Monday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy could end the war with Russia quickly if he chooses to. Trump, Zelenskiy, and key European leaders are set to meet later today to discuss ending Euro…
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Most Read: S&P 500, Dow Jones Q3 Outlook: Tariffs, Tech, and Small Cap Concerns USD/CAD has been on a grind off late having finally broken out of a brief period of consolidation thanks in part to a moderate US Dollar recovery and stalling Oil prices. USD/CAD has however, failed to find acceptance above the 1.3700 handle thus far and this may be something to note for bulls moving forward. Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on USDCAD with 57% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means US…
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USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair has reached the target resistance at 1.3860. A pullback is possible, as the price is essentially within the sideways range observed in the second half of April. However, the Marlin oscillator is confidently starting to rise in positive territory, so the probability of the price consolidating above the 1.3860 level is more than 50%. After such consolidation, growth toward the next target resistance at 1.3958 is possible. It's also worth noting the price's attempt to pull away from the balance line after unsuccessful attempts to drop below it from September 5–9. This signals the price's desire to accelerate its rise. On the H4 chart, the price beg…
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Most Read: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPY USD/CAD is at a crossroads in many ways and the technicals are showing some interesting patterns. Given that both the Fed and BoC chose to cut rates today could the technicals lead the way in the weeks to come? There is a possibility that the technicals could dominate for now but moving forward I expect the pace of rate cuts to come into play as well as the performance of Oil prices, which will impact the Canadian Dollar. Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and following the trendline breakout at the end of July and rally to just above the 1.3900 …
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On Friday, the Canadian dollar is gaining against the US dollar, with the USD/CAD pair halting its two-day advance and paring earlier intraday losses, despite a stronger US dollar and weaker retail sales data in Canada. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3772, pulling back from the day's high of 1.3825, as buyers failed to hold above the psychological 1.3800 level. The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, continues to rebound after the Fed's decision, trying to stay near its daily high, last seen six days ago. According to Statistics Canada, retail sales fell by 0.8% in July compared with the previous month, in…
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On Tuesday during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair attempted to attract buyers but failed amid mixed fundamental signals. Nevertheless, spot prices are comfortably holding above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Weak Canadian labor market data released on Friday strengthened market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of Canada at the September 17 meeting. Naturally, this pressures the Canadian dollar, serving as a key factor that could allow the pair to rise. At the same time, a modest recovery in crude oil prices limited the downside potential of the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar has also weakened, falli…
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From a technical standpoint, repeated bounces from the key support zone of 1.3725–1.3720 and yesterday's breakout above the psychological level of 1.3900 can be viewed as a new catalyst for the bulls in the USD/CAD pair. Oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory and are far from the overbought zone. A break above the resistance level at 1.3850 would confirm the likelihood of continued upward momentum toward the psychological level of 1.4000. This level also coincides with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and a successful breakout above it would open the path for further continuation of the bullish trend observed over the past two weeks. In the ev…
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The USD/CAD pair has been attracting buyers for the fifth consecutive day amid contrasting forecasts from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. The pair continues its upward movement for the fifth day in a row, marking the seventh positive session over the past eight days. The Canadian dollar remains under pressure amid expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. On Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the central bank intends to support economic growth while keeping inflation under control. This undermines the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada's dovish stance contrasts sharply with the cautious comments from Federal Reserve Chair…
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Finding support yesterday, USD/CHF trades 0.54% higher in today’s session, at 0.80251, crucially above the key level of 0.8000 for the first time since late September. In recent memory, the 0.80000 psychological level has presented a key area of resistance; therefore, the subsequent few sessions remain as important as ever if bullish momentum is to be sustained. USD/CHF: Key takeaways 08/10/2025 Mainly owing to dollar strength, with the dollar strength index (DXY) recently posting four-week highs, USD/CHF has found some buying support, but remains down 11.57% year-to-dateWhile seemingly more at peace with a strong franc than in recent memory, deflationary risks remain …
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Trading in the region of ~0.81694, a decisive move in this morning’s trading sees USD/CHF surpass monthly lows and break previously held consolidation to the downside. Amidst an increase in general safe-haven demand, trade tariff uncertainty, mixed US economic data, and a dovish stance from the SNB weighs on dollar-franc price action. USD/CHF: Key Takeaways Breaking down in this morning’s trading, USD/CHF trades 0.71% lower, facing further selling pressure amid an increase in demand for safe-haven assetsUS trade policy, especially regarding uncertainty on future inflation and economic growth, is adding to USD/CHF selling pressureWhile the Federal Reserve r…
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In today’s trading, USD/CHF is trading ~0.03% higher around the ~0.80132 level. Having rallied yesterday, in today’s session dollar-franc looks for support at the 0.80000 key level, having retraced from intraday highs. close USD/CHF, OANDA, TradingView, 16/07/2025 …
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USD/CHF is down ~0.63% in today’s session, currently trading around the ~0.79378 level. Crucially remaining under the key level of 0.8000, the Swiss franc remains on pace for its best three-monthly performance versus the dollar since 2008 amid the latest wave of dollar weakness. USD/CHF: Key takeaways from today’s session With the DXY falling to three-year lows today shortly after the New York open, dollar-franc has predictably followed suit, falling to levels last seen in 2011~ Recent commentary from the Swiss National Bank, suggesting that both negative rates and currency interventions remain a possibility, might limit USD/CHF downside in the short term …
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Riding on the coattails of dollar weakness and safe-haven demand for much of 2025, USD/CHF currently trades at monthly lows of 0.78698, down -1.10% in yesterday’s session aloneDespite renewed deflationary pressures, as seen in Monday's PPI report, safe-haven flows concerning U.S. policy, especially regarding trade, continue to benefit CHF pricingWhile the SNB has been expected to return to its usual playbook of currency interventions to weaken the franc, recent market realisations suggest that new leadership is less interested in ‘interventionist’ policy Currently on pace for its best yearly performance in over two decades, 2025 has been an interesting year for dollar-…
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The USD/CHF’s sideways range environment since its 1 August 2025 swing high of 0.8170 has been getting compressed as we approach the key risk event for the FX market this week, the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for August out this Friday, 5 September. SNB rate cut cycle likely over as Swiss leading economic data improves in August …
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The Swiss franc has continued to face downside pressure against the US dollar as it extends its losses in place since last Wednesday, 23 July. In today’s Asia, it shed -0.3% at this time of writing, making it the worst-performing major currency against the greenback. Swiss franc under pressure as US hikes tariffs to 39%, SNB may turn more dovish The current onslaught of the Swiss franc has been further reinforced by a higher-than-expected US tariff rate of 39% on Swiss products versus the earlier 31% levy announced in April. The latest 39% tariff slapped on Switzerland by the US White House administration is one of the steepest levies globally, which is likely to trigg…
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Painting new lows last Friday, gains in today’s session keep the dollar-franc exchange above the key level of 0.8000 - at least for now. Currently trading around ~$0.80698, recent developments on the Federal Reserve’s autonomy on monetary policy and potential action by the SNB continue to dominate USD/CHF headlines. USD/CHF: Key takeaways from today’s session Boasting reasonable gains in Monday’s session, despite a public holiday in the United Kingdom, USD/CHF trades ~0.46% higher today, as markets adjust expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy Otherwise, questions continue surrounding Federal Reserve independence from the US central government, with President…
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Currently trading at ~0.79632, USD/CHF has found support at previous monthly lows of around ~0.78309. Having recently suffered its worst 6-monthly performance since 2010, losing over 12% in value, ongoing negotiations to suggest the US and the EU are ‘edging closer’ to a trade deal have offered some short-term USD/CHF buying pressure. USD/CHF: Key takeaways from today’s session Signifying a welcome episode of co-operation between the two economies, recent commentary from both the White House and the EU suggests negotiations on trade are proving fruitful, with US officials ‘optimistic’ that a deal is to be struckOtherwise, markets are adjusting expectations on SNB monet…
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The USD/CHF pair is trying to rebound from the 0.7950 level but so far without success. The U.S. dollar has been attempting to find support from buyers since the start of the new week, partly offsetting losses after the disappointing U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which came in weaker than expected and pushed the currency to its lowest level in more than a month. In addition, the generally optimistic risk sentiment in markets typically reduces demand for the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency, creating favorable conditions for USD/CHF growth. However, the dollar's strengthening potential is limited by expectations of more decisive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.…
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The USD/CHF pair is struggling to maintain its recovery momentum after bouncing from 0.7915 — the lowest level since July 23 — balancing between moderate gains and minor losses. Prices remain below the psychological level of 0.8000, as market participants exercise caution ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could provide a notable impulse for the pair. During the North American session today, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow. Since the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting, these indicators will significantly shape expectations regard…
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The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) interest rate decision is scheduled for Thursday, September 25, 2025, followed by a press conference from Chairman Martin Schlegel. It is expected that the central bank will once again keep the key rate at 0.0%, marking a second consecutive meeting without changes after six straight cuts since March of last year. Market expectations do not point to further cuts this year, while any potential moves next year remain uncertain. Investors and traders should closely monitor Schlegel's remarks for signals that could indicate a review of the negative rate policy. This decision will have a significant impact on the Swiss franc's exchange rate and p…
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On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirmed that the base deposit rate would remain unchanged at 0% after completing its quarterly monetary policy review for Q3 2025. This decision was fully in line with market expectations. The central bank ended its rate-cutting cycle after six consecutive reductions, which began in March last year and continued through June this year. According to the latest SNB statement, Switzerland's GDP growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to 0.2% from the previous 1.0–1.5% range. For 2026, the SNB projects Swiss GDP growth of about 1% (previously 1.0–1.5%). Inflation in the country is forecast to reach 0.0% in Q2 2028. Globally, econ…
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Today, the USD/CHF pair is struggling to hold yesterday's levels. The exchange rate barely changed after the release of Swiss consumer inflation figures. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in September after a 0.1% decline in August. On an annual basis, inflation stood at 0.2%, matching August's result but falling short of expectations for a 0.3% increase. Nevertheless, this data has little impact on the Swiss franc or the USD/CHF pair amid mixed signals regarding Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy. SNB President Martin Schlegel stated that the central bank is ready to cut interest rates if necessary, but noted a h…
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The USD/JPY pair has spent the past week in a complicated, confusing game with false moves in both directions. The most recent of these was a deep false breakout below the 146.29 support level with Wednesday's lower shadow. Now, the price will attempt to break through and consolidate above the daily-scale MACD line (148.28). If successful, the price could climb above the first target level at 149.38 and continue rising into the target range of 151.70–152.10. The Marlin oscillator has established itself in bullish territory, joining this main upward scenario for the pair. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is moving sideways. This is a sign of an impending co…
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USD/JPY On the weekly chart, the price has moved above the Balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is speeding up its upward movement. The target along the embedded price channel line at 151.45 is open. A firm hold above this level will open the way to the 157.70 target. Despite the almost unequivocal outlook for this scenario, there is one powerful reason it might not materialize—a financial crisis in the US, accompanied by a deep drop in stock indices—something akin to what happened from February to April, when the S&P 500 plummeted by 21%. True, USD/JPY declined unevenly and unsynchronized during that period, but the crisis was not as systemic as i…
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