Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Most Read: AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? The recent USD/JPY price action has been characterized by a significant pullback, registering heavy losses for the first time in three weeks after encountering strong resistance near the psychological 150.00 mark. The immediate downward momentum is predominantly driven by external headwinds weighing heavily on the US Dollar. These factors include downbeat US labor data, volatility associated with a potential US government shutdown, and a general risk-on mood among investors. The resulting anticipation of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in October and December remains "practically intact," compressi…
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The recent three-week rally of 4.5% in the USD/JPY, from its 1 July 2025 low of 142.68 to the 16 July 2025 high of 149.19 (a three-month peak), has reached a potential inflection zone of 149.00/149.60, where the next probable move is a decline back towards the bottom of a three-month ascending sideways range configuration in place since 22 April 2025. Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks) A clearance above 149.60 shifts the focus back to the bulls for a range breakout scenario to propel the USD/JPY higher for the next resistances to come in at 150.40 and 151.15/30 (medium-term swing highs of 3 March/27 March 2025). Opinions are the…
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USD/JPY has extended its gradual decline from the 28 July 2025 high of 150.92, losing -2.6% to reach an intraday low of 147.00 at the time of writing. Today’s Tokyo inflation data and August consumer confidence figures reinforce expectations of a potential 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, as it continues along its path of monetary policy normalization. Tokyo inflation and Japan consumer confidence support another BoJ rate hike …
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This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, USD/JPY Technical: Potential impending minor bullish breakout for Japanese yen, published on 8 August 2025. The emergence of the Japanese yen’s strength has materialized as expected that saw the USD/JPY recording a week-to-date drop of -0.9% at this time of writing and breaking below the first support of 146.60 highlighted in our previous report (printed an intraday low of 146.21 on Thursday, 14 August). Dovish Fed Funds rate futures pricing triggered by US Treasury Secretary‘s jawboning The recent bout of Japanese yen strength has been yesterday’s jawboning by a key US White House official, the US Treasury S…
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The recent movement of the USD/JPY has been very choppy as it continues to trade within a four-month-plus “Ascending Wedge” range configuration since its 22 April 2025 low of 139.89. The initial 0.8% intraday rally of the US dollar against the Japanese yen at the start of this week’s Asia session on Monday, 8 September 2025, to hit an intraday high of 148,58 has evaporated as the USD/JPY is now trading almost unchanged week-to-date as of Thursday, 11 September, at 147.40. Market participants have largely looked beyond the political uncertainty stemming from Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, shifting their focus to factors that could shape the Bank of Japan’s ongoin…
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Earlier last week, the USD/JPY surged to a four-month high of 150.92 on 1 August, but its prior accumulated gains of the previous four sessions were all wiped out and formed a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” at the close of last Friday, 1 August US session. These observations suggest a potential bullish breakout on the USD/JPY above the key 200-day moving average and the upper boundary of its medium-term ascending range configuration in place from the 22 April 2025 low as it reintegrated back below the 149.50 level. Since the start of this week, 4 August, through today’s Asian session on 8 August, the Japanese yen has lagged behind other major currencies against the gr…
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This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY Technical: Yen eyeing a medium-term bullish breakout against USD from a 5-month range”, published on 17 September 2025. The USD/JPY dropped further on Wednesday, 17 September 2025, with an initial intraday loss of -0.7% to print an intraday low of 145.48 before it reversed up higher ex-post FOMC to close higher and erased all its initial losses, reinforced by Fed Chair Powell’s “less dovish” press conference. The USD/JPY has managed to survive at the 145.95 medium-term support (the lower boundary of the “Ascending Wedge” range configuration) in place since the 22 April 2025 low of 139.89 and…
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This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY Technical: Mild JPY strength detected ahead of US CPI”, published on 11 September 2025. In the last four weeks, the US dollar has weakened significantly against several major currencies, such as the euro, which rallied to a 4-year peak against the greenback on Tuesday, 16 September, but the bearish momentum of the US dollar has lagged against the Japanese yen (see Fig. 1). …
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Key takeaways BoJ policy shift intact: Japan’s central bank is still moving gradually toward policy normalization, supporting renewed yen strength.Tankan survey improvement: Q3 2025 Tankan survey for large manufacturers improved to 14, its highest since Q4 2024, boosting economic confidence.Yield spread narrowing: US-Japan yield differentials are shrinking, making US Treasuries less attractive versus JGBs, pressuring USD/JPY lower.Technical setup: A break below 146.30 may trigger a medium-term bearish breakout, exposing deeper downside targets. After trading in a choppy sideways range for almost five months since late April 2025, the Japanese yen is likely on the br…
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Key takeaways The Japanese yen has weakened sharply, losing 3.7% against the USD as markets priced in pro-stimulus expectations from new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, fuelling the “Takaichi Trade.”Despite short-term JPY weakness, Japan’s consumer confidence continues to improve, supporting the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) gradual rate hike stance.The BoJ’s policy rate curve remains upward trending, signalling gradual monetary tightening into 2026.The US–Japan 10-year yield spread has broken (intraday) below key support at 2.47%, a potential signal for medium-term USD/JPY weakness ahead. In the past three sessions since Monday, 6 October 2025, the Japanese yen has weakened sig…
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The Japanese yen continues to gain intraday strength. Despite mixed views expressed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its recently released Summary of Opinions, investors appear convinced that the central bank is leaning toward a path of monetary policy normalization. This perception is helping to offset weak domestic indicators such as industrial production and retail sales, lending additional support to the yen. Rising geopolitical tensions and fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown also contribute to the yen's demand as a safe-haven currency. The Bank of Japan's tone remains notably hawkish, standing in contrast to growing market expectations that the U.S. Federal R…
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On Thursday, the Japanese yen continued to decline. Earlier this week, Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, emphasized that the government would closely monitor foreign exchange movements, underscoring the importance of exchange rates that reflect real economic fundamentals. At the same time, the unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi in last Saturday's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race paves the way for her potential appointment as Japan's first female prime minister. Her win also fuels speculation about a more expansionary fiscal approach under her leadership. In response, traders have priced in just a 26% probability that the BoJ will raise its key inte…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen The price test at 148.12 during the first half of the day came at a time when the MACD indicator had significantly moved below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The yen could strengthen further against the dollar, as speeches by FOMC members John Williams and Thomas Barkin are expected in the second half of the day. A dovish tone from policymakers could lead to a drop in the USD/JPY pair. In recent days, the Japanese currency has shown signs of weakening, and today's statements from politicians might serve as a reason to pause. If Williams and Barkin take a m…
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Trade Review and Tips on Trading the Japanese Yen The price test at 147.92 occurred as the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. However, a significant drop in the pair did not materialize. The absence of key fundamental data from the U.S. had a positive effect on the outlook for the U.S. dollar, which strengthened quite well against the Japanese yen at the end of last week. However, one should not forget that the situation in the currency markets can change very quickly. In the coming weeks, close attention should be paid to the publication of new economic data — especially on inflation a…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.90 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar in line with the prevailing trend. As a result, the pair declined by only 15 pips. During the Asian session today, the Japanese yen showed strength. The dollar came under pressure due to the U.S. government shutdown, triggered by a failure to reach a consensus on funding for the upcoming fiscal period. This, combined with deteriorating global market sentiment, led to a flight from risk and increased demand for safe-haven assets — most notably the ye…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.04 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's bearish potential. For that reason, I did not initiate a sell trade. However, the bounce buy from 146.66 yielded about 40 pips in profit. A strong sell-off in the U.S. dollar occurred yesterday after the ADP report showed a drop of 32,000 in U.S. employment, signaling a potential need for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This sudden employment data miss triggered a chain reaction in currency markets. Investors quickly reevaluated their expectations fo…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.45 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began rising from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. This resulted in a minor rise of the pair by about 10 pips. The yen fell by 300 pips against the U.S. dollar on the news that Sanae Takaichi would become the new Prime Minister of Japan. Her plans for economic stimulus and her commitment to accommodative monetary policy triggered a sharp sell-off in the yen on the currency markets. The market appears to view her election as a signal that Abenomics—the policy of aggressive fiscal stimulus and low interest rates—will …
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Trade Analysis and USD/JPY Trading TipsThe price test at 150.26 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero line, confirming it as a valid entry point for selling the dollar. This signal led to a drop in the pair of over 40 points. A moderate decline in the dollar occurred yesterday afternoon following yet another failed round of budget talks between Republicans and Democrats, which resulted in an extended government shutdown. As is commonly known, a shutdown erodes confidence in the U.S. economy. Moreover, the shutdown has a direct impact on the flow of economic data. When government agencies cease operations, it causes delays in reports …
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Trade Review and Strategy for the Japanese YenA price test at 151.17 occurred while the MACD indicator was beginning to rise from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair gained more than 40 pips. The yen continued to rapidly lose ground against the dollar following yesterday's comments from Federal Reserve officials. Specifically, remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari — who warned that a sharp decrease in interest rates could lead to a surge in inflation — triggered a rally in the dollar and further weakness in the yen. However, the yen's current weakness is also driven by domestic factors. Following S…
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Trade Breakdown and Strategy for the Japanese YenA test of the 152.71 level occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid sell entry. This strategy resulted in a decline of more than 25 pips in the pair. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting path as early as October, as clearly indicated by yesterday's FOMC meeting minutes, which put some minor pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, this did little to disrupt the bullish trend that USD/JPY has demonstrated since the start of the week. Today's equipment orders data from Japan offered only brief support to the yen. While the growth suggests a…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 146.74 occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar and resulted in growth toward the target level of 147.48. Despite the lack of reports and strong demand for the yen in the first half of the day, things changed very quickly. Some market participants revised their expectations regarding the Fed's next steps and began to take profits. Today's driver for the pair will be the US price growth figures, though this data is scheduled for the second half of the day. For this reason, during the European session, not…
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Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen The levels I indicated were not tested during the first half of the day. Low market volatility ahead of key data discouraged traders from acting more actively. This afternoon, August U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released, including both the headline index and the version excluding volatile categories such as food and energy. A report on changes in wholesale inventories will also be published. These reports will serve as key indicators of inflationary trends in the U.S. economy and will strongly influence the Federal Reserve's next steps in monetary policy. Particular attention is paid to the core PPI, as i…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 147.59 in the first half of the day occurred as the MACD indicator started to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying dollars, which resulted in a gain of more than 40 pips. In the second half of the day, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August will be released, and a decrease in this indicator will restore demand for the Japanese yen, significantly weakening the dollar. The CPI excluding food and energy prices is also crucial. Lower inflation could ease pressure on the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see approach, which would negatively impact the attractiveness of t…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenA test of the 147.32 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero line—a good confirmation to sell the dollar. However, this did not lead to a significant drop in the pair. The yen reacted with only a minor gain against the US dollar after news that US producer prices in August declined, not increased. This restrained reaction reflects a mix of factors, including ongoing concerns about Japan's economic outlook and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Despite dollar weakness from US data, investors remain cautious about the yen, given its sensitivity to global economic swings—weak …
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.58 price level in the first half of the day occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a good entry point for buying dollars and resulting in a rise of more than 40 pips. In the second half of the day, the only notable data is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Weak data will help the yen strengthen against the dollar. The sentiment index, as a barometer of consumer confidence, can forecast changes in consumer spending, which directly impacts economic growth. Inflation expectations, in turn, shape investors' views on t…
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