Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
6915 tópicos neste fórum
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Last week, the US dollar fell to new lows for the year against half the G10 currencies, including sterling, the Norwegian krone, and Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars. A key question is whether it is a breakout and a signal that ana acceleration of the dollar's decline is at hand. On balance, and within a larger downtrend, we think there is a better case for the dollar trade consolidate with a firmer bias in the near-term. The three-month moving average of nonfarm payrolls rose in both April and May. The unemployment rate has been steady at 4.2% for the past three months. From the Fed's vantage point, it is not signaling a new for urgent action. This will allo…
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The US dollar rose against the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies last week. But to the extent the upside correction this month has been spurred by a backing up of US rates, its recovery may be over or nearly so. The US two-year yield settled lower on the week and the 10-year yield saw its gains pared to less than three basis points after the 4.50% level held. The greenback was sold aggressively in the middle of the week amid heightened speculation, spurred in part by the White House itself that the president was on the verge of firing Fed Chair Powell. The dramatic market response may have encouraged official assurances that the dismissal was not going to…
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The dollar rose against most of the G10 currencies last week. The Australian dollar and Swedish krona were the exceptions. The Aussie was helped by the central bank's surprise decision not to cut rates. The krona may have been helped by stronger than expected June inflation, with the key measure jumping to 3.3% from 2.5%), ostensibly delaying a final rate cut in the cycle. We have been framing the recent dollar recovery as a technical correction, aided by higher US rates, of the leg down from June 23, apparently inspired at the time by more aggressive attacks on the Fed's monetary stance that has continued to be decided with no dissents. The Dollar Index rose every sessio…
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The poor US employment data fanned speculation of a 50 bp rate cut when the Fed meets on September 17. Even though more unwelcome news from the labor market is expected with next week's BLS annual benchmark revisions that could wipe out 500k-1 mln jobs (the adjustment last year was 818k lower), the risk of a large Fed cut may be exaggerated. An acceleration in headline CPI (September 11) may temper the enthusiasm for a large move. The ECB meeting is on Thursday, and the staff will update economic projections. There is little doubt, but that central bank will stand pat. Political developments may be more important. The French government looks surely to lose a confidence v…
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Fresh off judicial victories, and achieving a cease fire between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration is on the verge of closing its initial chapter in its dramatic changes of America's foreign economic policy. The 90-day hiatus since Liberation Day comes to an end in the week ahead. Ahead of it, President Trump has indicated letters will go out to individual countries to announce the new bilateral tariff that will be imposed on US importers of their goods. The impact of the tariffs so far seems limited, but there are some preliminary signs of pass through. In April and May, US import prices, excluding oil, rose by an average of 0.3%. In the previous four quarters, …
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The US dollar continued to unwind last month's gains. Last week it fell against all G10 currencies, but the dollar bloc. It was more mixed against emerging market currencies. The Argentine peso was the best performer, gaining 2% but the Argentine political and economic conditions appear worsening and a weaker rather than a stronger currency looks needed. Meanwhile, the market toyed with the idea of a 50 bp cut by the Federal Reserve next month, but the firmer than expected PPI and the apparent continued strength of the US consumer (retail sales grew at a 4% annualized rate in the three-months through July) left the Fed funds futures settle little changed on the week, pric…
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It seems clear that the July jobs data was an important turning point. The two dovish governor dissents from the FOMC's decision to standpat, citing not economic strength like the White House, but recognizing the weakness in the labor market, were not outliers as much as the proverbial canaries in a coal mine. The market had recognized the strong chance of a rate cut next month and at least two before the end of the year before President Trump indicated he would nominate Stephen Morin to complete Kruger's term on the Federal Reserve Board. The dollar's counter-trend rally in July ended as well. Follow-through selling in recent days has seen the dollar meet technical retr…
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The combination of the policy mix advocated by the woman who is most likely to become the next prime minister of Japan and a series of disappointing German economic data amid a political crisis in France helped lift US dollar. Many trend followers and short-term market participants were caught the wrong way, and the short squeeze accelerated the dollar's advance. Significant technical damage had been inflicted on the euro, sterling, the yen, and Canadian dollar...until Friday. Since returning from its extended national holiday on Thursday, China announced three measures that escalated the tensions between Beijing and Washington. It tightened its export controls of rare ea…
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The US federal government was forced to close by the inability of Congress to pass a single appropriations bill for the new fiscal year that began October 1. Despite the disruption for government workers and their families, and in projects, which the White House has targeted opposition-led states, the capital markets barely took notice, except for the missing high-frequency data, including the September employment report. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new record highs ahead of the weekend. So did Europe's Stoxx 600, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the MSCI Emerging Market Equity Index. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell nearly three basis points last week, the most among…
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EUR/USD Brief analysis: The upward trend has been setting the main direction in the euro's major pair since February this year. The latest unfinished segment started in late July. From the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone, the price has continued its sideways movement that began a month and a half ago. The structure shows the correction remains incomplete. Weekly forecast: In the coming days, the euro is likely to continue its sideways movement along the support zone. Later, conditions may form for a reversal and the start of an upward move. The rise of the major could extend to the calculated resistance levels. A breakout above them within the weekly pe…
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EUR/USD Brief analysis:The 4-hour chart of the common European currency major shows that since February this year, the trend has been driven by an upward wave. The unfinished segment of the main trend started on July 31. Over the past two weeks, a counter correction has formed, in the shape of a contracting flat. The price is moving along the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone. Weekly forecast:In the coming days, the euro is likely to maintain a sideways bias with an overall upward vector. A stop, reversal, and subsequent decline should be expected near the resistance zone. The support level marks the lower boundary of the expected weekly range. Potenti…
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GBP/USD Brief analysis: Over the past three months, the major pound pair has been forming the corrective part (B) within the uptrend that has dominated since the beginning of the year. The price is moving sideways along the lower boundary of the potential reversal zone on the daily timeframe. The wave structure does not yet look complete. Weekly forecast: In the coming days, the British pound is expected to gradually decline toward support boundaries. In the second half of the week, a reversal and the start of price growth may follow. The resistance zone marks the upper boundary of the pair's expected weekly range. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 1.3520/1.3570Supp…
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GBP/USD Brief analysis:Since the beginning of this year, the British pound has been steadily rising against the U.S. dollar. A corrective phase of the wave began at the end of June and is still unfinished. The structure shows the final part (C) is not complete. The calculated resistance passes along the lower boundary of the potential daily reversal zone. Weekly forecast:In the first days, the pair will likely decline and trade sideways along the support zone. Then, a reversal and renewed upward movement should follow. A brief breakout below the support boundary is possible before the turn. The resistance zone marks the probable upper boundary of the weekly range. Pote…
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GBP/USD Brief Analysis: The price trend direction of the British pound has been set by an upward wave since the start of this year. In late June, quotes reached the potential reversal zone on the weekly timeframe. Before further growth, a correction needs to form in the wave structure. As of today, the correction is not yet complete. Weekly Outlook: The coming week is expected to bring the end of the pound's downward movement. A temporary decline to the lower boundary is possible early in the week. A trend shift and an upward movement may follow, with resistance aligned at the lower boundary of the weekly reversal zone. Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 1.3670 / 1.3…
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EUR/USD Brief Analysis: The upward wave algorithm that began on July 31 continues to push the euro's main pair quotes toward the upper part of the chart. Since late August, the price has been forming a sideways corrective segment (B), which was still incomplete at the time of analysis. A week ago, the price entered a strong potential reversal zone and began pulling back, forming the final part (C) of the correction. Forecast for the Week: A bullish price vector is expected over the next few days, leading the euro toward calculated resistance levels. A reversal within this zone and a return to a bearish trend are likely by the weekend. The projected support/resistance zone…
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EUR/USD Brief analysis: The direction of price movement for the euro since the end of July this year has been defined by an upward wave. The wave level corresponds to the daily timeframe. At the end of August, quotes reached the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone. In recent weeks, the price has been in correction. Weekly forecast: In the first days of the coming week, the most likely scenario is sideways movement of the euro along resistance boundaries. Toward the weekend, volatility may increase, with a potential reversal and the beginning of a decline toward support levels. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 1.1760/1.1810Support: 1.1600/1.1550Recomm…
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EUR/USD Analysis: The euro quotes continue to move within an uptrend. Over the past two weeks, a downward zigzag has formed from the resistance zone. Currently, the price is moving between intermediate support and strong resistance, forming a correction. Its structure is not yet complete. Forecast: In the coming week, the recent decline is expected to finish near the calculated support area. After that, a reversal may form. In the second half of the week, the price is likely to resume its upward move, pushing the pair toward the calculated resistance zone. Potential Reversal Zones: Resistance: 1.1810/1.1860Support: 1.1660/1.1610Recommendations: Sales: Low potential, re…
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GBP/USD Brief Analysis: On the chart of the British pound major, the main trend throughout this year has been driving the pair upward. Over the past three months, the middle part (B) has been forming as a horizontal flat along the upper boundary of a powerful potential reversal zone. It remains unfinished. Weekly Forecast: At the start of the week, a pullback of the British pound toward the resistance zone is likely. Afterward, a reversal can be expected. By the end of the week, the pair may resume its downward price movement. The support zone indicates the lowest expected weekly range for the pair. Potential Reversal Zones: Resistance: 1.3520/1.3570Support: 1.3270/1.3…
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GBP/USD Brief analysis: Quotes of the British pound in the main pair continue the uptrend that started early this year. The unfinished corrective wave section (B) has been moving the price sideways for the past two months. Previously broken resistance has turned into support, along which quotes have formed a price channel. Weekly forecast: At the beginning of the upcoming week, sideways movement of the pound is expected, with a bearish vector toward calculated support. After that, the price may transition into a sideways range, followed by a reversal and renewed growth. The resistance zone shows the maximum expected range of growth. Potential reversal zones Resistance:…
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Weir Group announced Wednesday it has signed a binding agreement to acquire US-based engineering product maker Townley, as well as its foundry business, for an enterprise value of £111m ($150m). Weir says this acquisition will help strengthen the group’s market channels and manufacturing footprint in North America, including in the phosphate market, a key mineral in fertilizers. The deal will be financed from Weir’s existing debt facilities and has no impact on its previous debt guidance for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, the Glasgow-based firm said. The transaction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2025, subject to the customary US antitrust ap…
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Scottish engineering group Weir has agreed to buy Fast2Mine, a Brazil-based mine management solutions (MMS) provider, to bolster its existing suite of mine planning and control solutions. Fast2Mine offers an SaaS solution comprising four modules designed around a modern, web-native interface that prioritizes ease of use while delivering advanced reporting functionality. The technology is designed to help miners with material management, mine optimization, short-interval control, fleet management and select asset health diagnostics. Fast2Mine currently services 84 mines across multiple commodities and countries, such as Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, Guyana and …
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Underground drilling at West Red Lake Gold Mines’ (TSXV: WRLG) primary Madsen property in Northwestern Ontario yielded multiple instances of high-grade gold, the company said. Highlight hole MM25D-12-4860-004 in the lower Austin zone cut 7.75 metres grading 139.45 grams gold per tonne from 37 metres depth, West Red Lake said Thursday in a statement. Hole MM25D-12-4860-005, meanwhile, intersected 8.7 metres at 74.7 grams gold from 37.1 metres downhole. Vancouver-based West Red Lake, backed by Canadian Mining Hall of Fame member Frank Giustra, is continuing exploration work at Madsen even as it ramps up production at the past-producing mine. It restarted operations …
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West Red Lake Gold Mines Ltd. (TSXV: WRLG) has resumed operations at its Madsen Mine in Red Lake, Ontario, following a brief pause triggered by a fatal incident. Operations were suspended on June 16 after an underground employee was fatally injured. The mill resumed operations approximately 40 hours later, with mining restarting 12 hours after that. Ramp-up to full capacity is ongoing, dependent on workforce availability and compliance with safety protocols. Shares rose 3.8% in Toronto following the news, giving the company a C$278 million ($203 million) market capitalization. The mill has been averaging 650 tonnes per day with 95% gold recovery and has…
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Rio Tinto (LSE/ASX: RIO) chief executive officer Stausholm was in Western Australia’s Pilbara region Friday, attending the opening of the company’s new Western Range iron ore mine. Stausholm said the opening of the $2 billion Western Range mine represented a new beginning following the scandal surrounding the company’s destruction of the culturally significant Juukan Gorge caves in 2020. It is also Rio’s first project to feature a co-designed social, cultural and heritage management plan with Traditional Owners. “I could not be more proud of seeing how we have worked in deep partnership with the Yinhawangka People,” Stausholm said at the event. “It’s a new…
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Westhaven Gold (TSXV: WHN) is set to receive an investment of C$3.16 million ($2.3 million) through a private placement with Canadian mining billionaire Eric Sprott as well as EarthLabs (TSXV: SPOT). In total, the Vancouver-headquartered gold explorer will issue approximately 8.33 million units at C$0.12 per unit and 12.5 million charitable flow-through units at C$0.1728 each. The units all contain one common share of Westhaven and one-half of a share purchase warrant exercisable at C$0.18. Westhaven Gold opened Monday’s session at C$0.16 apiece, with a market capitalization of C$28.2 million ($20.8 million). For the past 52 weeks, the stock traded between C$0.085…
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