Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12279 tópicos neste fórum
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Thursday Trade Review:1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continued moving upward after breaking through the descending trendline. As we can see, the market is now in an upward trend, and we continue to expect further growth in the British pound. Yesterday, the U.K. published reports on industrial production and GDP for August, both of which returned better-than-forecast results. However, as before, British data had little impact on traders. Market attention remains focused on the U.S. dollar, U.S. politics, Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve, and the escalating trade war. From our perspective, none of the major global fundamental factors favor the U.S. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Review:1-Hour Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair showed a slight downward movement on Friday amidst easing tensions between China and the United States. It is also worth noting that over the weekend, the United States witnessed its third protest against Donald Trump's immigration and trade policies, with this one being the largest by far. Demonstrations took place in more than 2,600 cities across America, and not all of them were peaceful or orderly. As we can see, America is rebelling against Donald Trump, which is quite logical considering both his foreign and domestic policies. Consequently, we continue to believe that with Trump at the helm, America is…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review:1-Hour Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, GBP/USD also traded with minimal volatility and slowly declined throughout the session. In fact, this kind of movement is not surprising—and we'd even say it was expected. There were no macroeconomic or fundamental events at all on Monday. The pair had been rising for about three days as part of a new uptrend, so a minor downward correction was completely logical. On the daily timeframe, a flat range remains firmly in place, so strong volatility and clear trend-based movements are not to be expected right now. It's also worth noting that the market has been ignoring many news events—especially those that are negat…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review for Tuesday: 1-Hour Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair continued its slow, downward drift for most of the day. While the British pound has been falling more moderately compared to the euro in recent sessions, both moves appear illogical and lack clear fundamental backing. The recent mild strengthening of the U.S. dollar can be explained only by technical factors. It's important to recall that both the euro and the pound are trading within well-defined sideways ranges on the daily timeframe, which allows for arbitrary, random price moves within those bounds. On the hourly chart, the pair appeared to initiate a new upward trend, which may now be…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday's Trade Recap: 1H GBP/USD Chart The GBP/USD pair traded with significantly more volatility on Wednesday than in previous days of the week. The reason is quite simple — the first major release of the week was published: the UK inflation report. While we still believe that inflation in the UK is excessively high and does not suggest further easing from the Bank of England, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September did not rise as expected. This triggered a sell-off in the British pound driven by stronger dovish market expectations. However, in the second half of the day, the U.S. dollar began falling for unknown reasons. We continue to view this price acti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Thursday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also traded with minimal volatility on Thursday amid a complete absence of macroeconomic and fundamental information. Overall, the British pound continues its sluggish decline, with no underlying reasons to support it. This week had only one event that could have triggered the pound's decline—the UK inflation report. On all other days, there was no reason for traders to sell the pair: neither technical, given the cancellation of the downtrend, nor macroeconomic. What will happen today remains an open question, as unlike the rest of the week, Friday includes a significant amount of macroecono…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Analysis:1H chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Friday, even though a rise in the pound would have been more logical. Let's recall that on Friday morning, the UK released a fairly positive retail sales report, which traders completely ignored. Overall, last week's economic statistics in the UK were quite solid, but it didn't prevent the pound from falling due to renewed concerns over the national budget. The pound has declined not because of the Fed or Bank of England meetings, but due to more budget-related issues. From our point of view, this factor has already been priced in—how long can the market keep selling off the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades on Tuesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued its sluggish, almost sideways downward movement on Tuesday. Market volatility has been weak in recent months, and over the last five days, movements have been virtually non-existent. This may be related to the upcoming FOMC meeting, as the market is reluctant to take on risk beforehand, unsure which monetary policy path the central bank will choose in the near term. Alternatively, it could simply be a result of the flat on the daily timeframe that has been ongoing for the sixth consecutive month. It is worth recalling that in September and October, there were no questions…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades on Wednesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair moved exactly as most traders expected on Wednesday. It is worth noting that the market does not always react clearly or logically to the FOMC meeting results. Yesterday indeed could have been such a case, as in recent months the dollar has responded to the Federal Reserve's monetary easing with growth. However, this time the dollar fell despite the Fed's promise to pause rate cuts in 2026. Overall, as most experts had anticipated, the key rate was lowered for the third consecutive time, but it was done in advance. There is still no macroeconomic data on the labor market, unemplo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Deal Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart for EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday following the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday evening. Recall that the results of the last Fed meeting of the year cannot be considered unequivocally "dovish," as the central bank lowered the rate but essentially announced a prolonged pause for the following year. Only one easing of monetary policy is planned for the entire next year, which is positive news for the dollar. However, this time the market traded as if the Fed announced plans for 4-5 more cuts. It's also worth noting that the last two Fed meetings ended with a rate cut, after which…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Deal Analysis for Friday: 1H Chart for EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility and exclusively sideways on Friday. This market behavior is not surprising, as we see a prolonged upward trend on the hourly timeframe, while the daily timeframe remains in a flat range. Consequently, movements in general remain weak. Last week, on Wednesday and Thursday, we witnessed a notable rise in the pair, which was driven by significant events such as the FOMC meeting and its subsequent implications. During those two days, volatility inevitably increased. However, on Friday, we observed a return to the previous state. Once again, there were no movements in …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Monday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded very weakly on Monday. The macroeconomic background was almost non-existent that day, so it is not surprising that volatility was extremely low. Nevertheless, the upward trend remains, and in the course of the current week, anything can be expected from the pair. It's important to note that today marks the start of release of key macroeconomic data in the EU, the UK, and the US. While European reports are interesting, they are not super important; the US reports could trigger an "atomic bomb explosion" in the currency market. Of course, the Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment re…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: A large number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, and most deserve traders' close attention. In the Eurozone, indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for December, as well as economic sentiment indices, will be released today. In the UK, reports on the unemployment rate, number of unemployed, wages, and business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors will be published. In the US, key reports include Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, the ADP report, retail sales, and business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors. Certainly, Non-Farm Pay…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Tuesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair experienced fluctuations on Tuesday, moving both up and down. As we warned, volatility throughout the day was quite high, though not as extreme as it could have been. Traders largely overlooked the morning reports from the Eurozone, even though they could have triggered a drop in the European currency, as the business activity indices came in weaker than expected. The market was primarily focused on the forthcoming Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment reports from the US. Once these reports were released, the market seemed uncertain about how to react. To recap, the unemployment rate r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Wednesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair corrected downward on Wednesday, but the upward trend remains intact, as clearly shown in the illustration above. Yesterday, the euro declined sharply, despite an essentially absent macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop. Traders might have felt that a downward trend was beginning, which is indeed possible, as the price reached the upper boundary of the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830 on the daily timeframe. However, the flat has lasted for six months, and sooner or later, it must come to an end. Thus, we believe it's still too early to panic and expect a new decline in the pair…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair moved in various directions on Thursday, but it was not particularly volatile. Overall, this week has been more disappointing than rewarding, in many respects. First, the market movements leave much to be desired. Many traders likely expected to see a trend and high volatility, but what they got instead was more of a flat market. Secondly, the macroeconomic background clarified some issues but failed to answer key questions. Notably, this week saw the release of the long-awaited reports on U.S. unemployment and the labor market, as well as an inflation report. Inflation has started t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Monday's Trades: 1-Hour Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair maintained an upward trend on Monday and even showed quite decent movements throughout the day. These movements were not straightforward to understand, as the rise began in the first half of the day and was followed by a significant decline. The most important event of the day was the ISM manufacturing activity index, published closer to the evening. This index turned out to be worse than expected and should have triggered a decline in the U.S. dollar. However, the dollar was already falling before this index was published, and afterward it rose. This is where the illogicality lies. We as…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review for Friday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair remained stagnant on Friday. The overall volatility for the day was around 30 pips, which essentially indicates a complete lack of movement. It is worth noting that a significant number of crucial macroeconomic data were published that week, along with two central bank meetings (the European Central Bank and the Bank of England). Now, let's look at the charts. Does it feel like the fundamental and macroeconomic background over the past five days was super important? Essentially, the EUR/USD pair showed good movement only on Wednesday evening and Thursday night. During this time, the quot…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Tuesday's Trades: 1H Chart for EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded with an overall volatility of 32 pips on Tuesday. Even relatively important reports on unemployment and inflation in the Eurozone did not provide any help. Both reports showed unexpected figures that did not match forecasts, but the market simply refused to trade. However, the upward trend remained intact by the end of the day, and yet another irrational and illogical rise of the American currency was avoided. Thus, both in the short-term and long-term, we still expect only growth of the euro. This week, it can be stated that traders continue to ignore the macroeconomic backdrop. On …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Breakdown for Wednesday: 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Wednesday after a slight pullback within the local upward trend. It is important to remember that a key technical point remains the flat on the daily timeframe between 1.1400 and 1.1830, which has persisted for five months. After the price reversal near the lower boundary of this sideways channel, a rise toward the upper boundary could be expected purely on technical grounds. Moreover, given that the dollar has not corrected properly against the euro over the past five months and given the fundamental background, any rise in the pair at this point is justified…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded once again in a "neither fish nor fowl" style on Thursday. The macroeconomic backdrop throughout the day was very weak, so the market found no grounds to open new positions. Overall, this week we have already seen several important reports, most of which have had no impact. Almost all European reports (some quite significant) were ignored by the market, while the American reports were somewhat contradictory and provoked a mixed market reaction. For example, the important ISM Manufacturing Index was worse than expected, while the similar index for the services sector exceeded t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Friday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD pair traded again on Friday with minimal volatility, not exceeding 40 pips. In principle, we have been discussing weak volatility for several consecutive months, and unfortunately, there is little we can do about it. The market remains in a state of stagnation, and for the sixth consecutive month, a flat trend persists between 1.1400 and 1.1830 on the daily timeframe. Therefore, novice traders can currently only expect weak movements within the sideways channel. On Friday, the macroeconomic backdrop offered some hope of more interesting movement. The Eurozone released the final GDP report for the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Monday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to correct within the upward trend. However, at this point, it is not easy to assert that the upward trend remains intact. The price established itself below the ascending trend line yesterday, so formally, the trend has changed to bearish. Nevertheless, we would like to draw the attention of novice traders to one important fact. Market movements remain very weak, so there may be situations where the breach of the trend line occurs not due to a trend reversal but rather due to the prolonged correction and the weakness of the primary movement. Recall that there will…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's Trade Analysis: 1-Hour Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Friday. The first thought that comes to mind is that the dollar has run out of steam. Over the past month and a half, the U.S. currency did not have strong reasons to keep rising continuously. We cannot say the dollar has excessively increased, and the daily timeframe shows this is not the case. However, it did rise at a time when its decline would have raised no questions. The market has ignored everything over the past month and a half: the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. shutdown (which began on October 1 and is still ongoing), Donald Trump's…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Monday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded mostly sideways on Monday and failed to break past the important level of 1.1584. In principle, not much was expected from Monday. The macroeconomic background was completely absent in all the countries of interest, and Donald Trump's morning promises to soon end the "shutdown" did not catch anyone's interest. The market did not experience euphoria over the conclusion of the "shutdown," just as it had ignored the "shutdown" for a month and a half. Recall that over the past month and a half, the U.S. currency had been rising moderately, which contradicted the fundamental backdrop…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
