Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Trade Review for Friday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair remained stagnant on Friday. The overall volatility for the day was around 30 pips, which essentially indicates a complete lack of movement. It is worth noting that a significant number of crucial macroeconomic data were published that week, along with two central bank meetings (the European Central Bank and the Bank of England). Now, let's look at the charts. Does it feel like the fundamental and macroeconomic background over the past five days was super important? Essentially, the EUR/USD pair showed good movement only on Wednesday evening and Thursday night. During this time, the quot…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Tuesday's Trades: 1H Chart for EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded with an overall volatility of 32 pips on Tuesday. Even relatively important reports on unemployment and inflation in the Eurozone did not provide any help. Both reports showed unexpected figures that did not match forecasts, but the market simply refused to trade. However, the upward trend remained intact by the end of the day, and yet another irrational and illogical rise of the American currency was avoided. Thus, both in the short-term and long-term, we still expect only growth of the euro. This week, it can be stated that traders continue to ignore the macroeconomic backdrop. On …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Breakdown for Wednesday: 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Wednesday after a slight pullback within the local upward trend. It is important to remember that a key technical point remains the flat on the daily timeframe between 1.1400 and 1.1830, which has persisted for five months. After the price reversal near the lower boundary of this sideways channel, a rise toward the upper boundary could be expected purely on technical grounds. Moreover, given that the dollar has not corrected properly against the euro over the past five months and given the fundamental background, any rise in the pair at this point is justified…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded once again in a "neither fish nor fowl" style on Thursday. The macroeconomic backdrop throughout the day was very weak, so the market found no grounds to open new positions. Overall, this week we have already seen several important reports, most of which have had no impact. Almost all European reports (some quite significant) were ignored by the market, while the American reports were somewhat contradictory and provoked a mixed market reaction. For example, the important ISM Manufacturing Index was worse than expected, while the similar index for the services sector exceeded t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Friday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD pair traded again on Friday with minimal volatility, not exceeding 40 pips. In principle, we have been discussing weak volatility for several consecutive months, and unfortunately, there is little we can do about it. The market remains in a state of stagnation, and for the sixth consecutive month, a flat trend persists between 1.1400 and 1.1830 on the daily timeframe. Therefore, novice traders can currently only expect weak movements within the sideways channel. On Friday, the macroeconomic backdrop offered some hope of more interesting movement. The Eurozone released the final GDP report for the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Monday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to correct within the upward trend. However, at this point, it is not easy to assert that the upward trend remains intact. The price established itself below the ascending trend line yesterday, so formally, the trend has changed to bearish. Nevertheless, we would like to draw the attention of novice traders to one important fact. Market movements remain very weak, so there may be situations where the breach of the trend line occurs not due to a trend reversal but rather due to the prolonged correction and the weakness of the primary movement. Recall that there will…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's Trade Analysis: 1-Hour Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Friday. The first thought that comes to mind is that the dollar has run out of steam. Over the past month and a half, the U.S. currency did not have strong reasons to keep rising continuously. We cannot say the dollar has excessively increased, and the daily timeframe shows this is not the case. However, it did rise at a time when its decline would have raised no questions. The market has ignored everything over the past month and a half: the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. shutdown (which began on October 1 and is still ongoing), Donald Trump's…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Monday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded mostly sideways on Monday and failed to break past the important level of 1.1584. In principle, not much was expected from Monday. The macroeconomic background was completely absent in all the countries of interest, and Donald Trump's morning promises to soon end the "shutdown" did not catch anyone's interest. The market did not experience euphoria over the conclusion of the "shutdown," just as it had ignored the "shutdown" for a month and a half. Recall that over the past month and a half, the U.S. currency had been rising moderately, which contradicted the fundamental backdrop…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis of Tuesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, despite virtually no macroeconomic data or fundamental events. Recall that on Monday, Donald Trump announced that the "shutdown" could end this week, which should have supported the US dollar. However, the dollar fell for two consecutive days, further proving the illogical current movements in the market, caused by the flat on the daily timeframe. Two not-so-important ZEW economic sentiment indices were released yesterday in Germany and the EU. The European index turned out slightly better than forecasts, while the German one was worse. Thus, t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis of Wednesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to endure its trials. Recall that the euro has been experiencing a total flat for several months, which is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. Therefore, on the lower timeframes, we continue to observe frequently alternating trends, illogical movements, low volatility, and outright "empty" days. Yesterday's situation completely matched these signs. The macroeconomic background in the Eurozone and the US was essentially absent, resulting in volatility around 40 pips for the pair. We believe that the flat on the daily timeframe is the key aspect to prioritize …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis of Thursday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, and volatility and strength of the growth even... increased. Novice traders need to remember that the pair's growth indicates a rise in the euro and a fall in the dollar. Thus, the dollar continued its decline yesterday on the news of the end of the US government shutdown. One doesn't need to be an analyst or an expert to see the lack of logic in this movement. Simply put, another important yet local piece of news had no impact on the pair's movement. The market continues to trade as it sees fit, ignoring local macroeconomic and fundamental f…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Friday: 1H Chart for EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded predominantly sideways on Friday. There was little macroeconomic data available on that day. Essentially, the only notable data was the Eurozone GDP, which neither disappointed nor pleased the market. Traders still lacked the most critical piece of information—macroeconomic data from the U.S. Individual reports are published occasionally, but they are far from the most significant. The key reports have yet to be released due to the "shutdown." The American government and federal structures resumed operations last week; however, gathering information and data will require considerable ti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Tuesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair felt like it was at a wake throughout Tuesday. The overall volatility of the day was even lower than 40 pips, with no important macroeconomic reports or fundamental events. Therefore, there is essentially nothing to analyze from the previous day. We can only hope that at least tomorrow the market will wake up and begin to move in the short term. It is worth noting that the daily timeframe remains flat, and whether anyone likes it or not, this flat has led to no market movement for over a month. Even on the 5-minute timeframe, movements are practically nonexistent. Furthermore, it is…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Analysis: 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair plummeted in the second half of Thursday, dropping sharply. The first question that comes to mind is: why? Let's take a look at the economic calendar. In the morning, the Eurozone published the second estimate of October inflation, which matched the first estimate and the forecasts. In the evening, the FOMC minutes were released, which have always been considered formalities. The rise of the U.S. dollar and the decline of the pair began precisely between these two events. Simply put, the dollar started to appreciate when the U.S. trading session opened, not after the release of the inflation rep…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's Trade Review: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on the last trading day of the past week. Were there reasons for this? A fair number of macroeconomic reports were published on Friday, but virtually all of them contradicted each other. In the Eurozone, two business activity indices showed opposite dynamics, while in the U.S., the business activity indices also displayed contradictory results. The U.S. consumer sentiment index was weaker than expected (which did not support dollar growth), and both business activity indices in Germany fell sharply. These factors likely contributed to the decline of the European currency…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Monday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair attempted to resume its upward movement on Monday, but the result was another flat response. As we can see, market movements remain either absent or illogical. On Monday, they were virtually non-existent. The overall volatility for the day was below 50 pips, and the price remained within the range established on Friday. The macroeconomic backdrop was almost non-existent, except for a single German business climate index, which had no impact on the pair's movement. Fundamentals were also lacking. Meanwhile, the flat trend on the daily timeframe persists. It has continued for several m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Tuesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair finally demonstrated a logical upward movement on Tuesday. And it was reasonable in every sense of the word. Let's start with the technical aspect. The price broke through and overcame the descending trend line, so an upward trend was to be expected. On the daily timeframe, the pair reached the area of the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830, thus growth could again be anticipated. From a macroeconomic perspective, three reports were published in the U.S. yesterday, and two of them can be definitively assigned as negative for the American dollar. While the producer…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Wednesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, despite experiencing a decline during the day. The macroeconomic background was relatively weak. Essentially, there was only one report to highlight—durable goods orders in the U.S., which, as expected, prompted a market reaction but did not significantly affect overall markets. What did we observe? The report came out more positively than anticipated, which led to a predictable rise in the dollar. However, the trend on the hourly timeframe shifted upward a few days ago, the daily timeframe remains flat, and the global trend continues to…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility, mostly sideways, on Thursday. Yesterday morning, we warned that such movements were to be expected, as there were no scheduled macroeconomic or fundamental events on Thursday. Only in the morning did a consumer confidence report come out in Germany, but it held almost no significance for traders, as it coincided with forecasted values. Thus, the formation of an upward trend on the hourly timeframe continues, but, as we can see, the European currency cannot currently display growth in the manner the dollar has shown in recent months, that is, rising out…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis of Friday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Friday for somewhat dubious reasons. On the last trading day of the week, the only event that might have interested novice traders was the Eurozone inflation report. Recall that inflation reports in the EU are released in two estimates, with the first being the most important. On Friday, the first estimate for October was released, showing a year-on-year rate of 2.1%, in line with analysts' forecasts. Thus, there was essentially nothing to react to, and there were no grounds for the euro to fall again. Setting aside the comparison of forecast versus re…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review for Monday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement with minimal volatility. The low volatility observed in recent weeks did not raise any concerns, as important macroeconomic reports have been scarce. However, yesterday, the US ISM manufacturing activity index was released, published as a single estimate. Regardless of the report's importance, more significance lies in the relationship between the forecast and the actual value. We learned that manufacturing activity in the US declined again, despite forecasts predicting an increase. Thus, the report turned out to be much worse than market expect…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Breakdown for Tuesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued to slide downward on Tuesday without any compelling reasons. During the past day, the only significant event was the speech by Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, but Lagarde did not touch upon the topic of monetary policy or the economy. Therefore, this event could not have triggered a new fall of the euro. Nevertheless, we have been repeating the same thing for more than a month: the current downward movement is based solely on technical factors. The fundamental and macroeconomic background remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. The daily time…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Wednesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair once again exhibited absurd movements on Wednesday. This time, the market ignored positive U.S. macroeconomic data, reaffirming our assumptions about the illogical current strength of the dollar and the independence of the ongoing movement from fundamentals and macroeconomic factors. Recall that on Monday, the ISM manufacturing activity index from the U.S. was ignored, coming in much worse than expected. On Wednesday, the ISM services activity index was also disregarded, which was significantly better than forecasts. Simultaneously, the market paid no attention to the ADP report, wh…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of EUR/USD. The EUR/USD currency pair surprised many on Thursday. Over the past five weeks, the European currency has been in a continuous decline, but yesterday it started to rise unexpectedly. Notably, on Monday and Wednesday, the market ignored all macroeconomic factors, and yesterday it disregarded both macroeconomic and fundamental aspects. As we mentioned, there is currently no correlation between the pair's movements and the news. Yesterday, reports on German industrial production and European retail sales were published, both of which came in weaker than expected. This had absolutely no impact on market sentiment, as the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's Trade Review:1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair began a new leg of upward correction within the broader downward trend. In simpler terms, the recent decline of the euro over the past several weeks is either part of a larger correction or simply a phase of sideways consolidation on higher timeframes. As mentioned previously, the current drop in the euro is illogical. A continuous stream of U.S. news has been pushing traders toward only one action—selling the dollar. Yet on the daily timeframe, in conditions of a flat market, price movement in either direction doesn't require macroeconomic or fundamental reasoning. The key questio…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
