Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Monday Trade Review: 1H Chart of EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair mainly traded sideways on Monday. During the European session, a downward movement was observed, raising many questions from both a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective. No important or even secondary reports were published on Monday. There was also nothing noteworthy among fundamental events. On Friday, Donald Trump announced new tariffs on China—100%—which essentially marks a new escalation in the global trade war. Nevertheless, the dollar again barely declined in the foreign exchange market. For over two weeks in a row, the market has been ignoring all negative news for the U.S. currency…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Review of Tuesday's Trades:1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair managed to trade in both directions. In the morning, the euro came under pressure due to weaker-than-expected ZEW economic sentiment indices from both Germany and the Eurozone. In the second half of the day, the U.S. dollar faced pressure due to public remarks by Jerome Powell and Donald Trump. Chair Powell once again stated that the Federal Reserve will make decisions based solely on macroeconomic data and also signaled the end of the quantitative tightening program. Both statements could be interpreted in multiple ways. The market still lacks confidence in whether we will see one or two rat…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review for Wednesday: 1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. Among notable events that day were the ongoing deterioration in U.S.–China relations and the Eurozone's industrial production report, which, despite coming in weak, still exceeded expectations—possibly contributing to minor euro strength. Overall, the market finally began buying the euro, which is a positive development. The descending trendline was breached again, suggesting the formation of at least a short-term bullish trend. As mentioned previously, we continue to expect the EUR/USD pair to rise and believe the 2025 uptrend will ultimately resu…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Friday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited little trend on Friday. During the day, macroeconomic reports were published in the Eurozone, Germany, and the U.S. that should have supported trading decisions. However, instead of experiencing significant movements, we witnessed minimal volatility. The European currency had a good opportunity to rise again, but if the market refuses to buy it and remains generally reluctant to trade, no movement will occur regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic context. Essentially, we saw only a market reaction to the U.S. inflation report, which was significant. The Consumer Pric…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility and a slight upward slope on Monday. The upward slope is not surprising, as the trend on the hourly timeframe shifted upward a few weeks ago, and given the global fundamental backdrop, the rise of the euro is entirely logical under any local circumstances. However, the very low volatility is explained by the absence of significant fundamental or macroeconomic events on Monday. Only the business climate index was published in Germany, which went largely unnoticed. Recall that many important macroeconomic reports were released on Friday, but volatility remained v…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Tuesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility on Tuesday. Throughout the day, there were no significant events published in the Eurozone or the U.S., but the British pound faced certain downward pressures, causing the European currency to decline alongside it in the first half of the day. By the second half of the day, the euro recovered, while the pound continued to fall for its own reasons. Consequently, the sharp moves we observed yesterday in the euro could have been absent if it weren't for yet another statement from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The day's overall volatility was 43 pips. This ev…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Analysis: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair had an interesting trading day on Wednesday. Recall that the previous night marked the FOMC meeting, and we warned of a highly likely increase in volatility, though we also stated that this event was unlikely to change anything for the euro and the dollar. What did we see as a result? The European currency plummeted downward, but the pair remained within the same sideways channel on the hourly timeframe. Naturally, it also remained within the flat on the daily timeframe. Therefore, while we did see volatility, the technical picture did not change. Jerome Powell did not provide traders w…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD pair continued its decline on Thursday after breaching yet another ascending trend line the day before. The European currency is falling again; the flat on the daily timeframe persists, and the global upward trend for 2025 remains in place. Therefore, we continue to expect only growth. Yesterday, there was very little logic to the pair's movements. The market began to shed euros early in the morning, even before the publication of macroeconomic statistics in the Eurozone and the European Central Bank meeting. This means traders did not even wait for important data, continuing to process the result…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Recap:1H Chart – EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD pair once again traded in a "neither fish nor fowl" manner. Volatility remained minimal, as it had been throughout the previous week. We reiterate our earlier observation: it was a very strange week. Even without the missing Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment reports, there were plenty of fundamental and macroeconomic events—and many of them were significant. What explains the lack of volatility and overall reluctance to trade remains unclear. Even Friday's ISM Services PMI, which came in well below forecasts, could have easily triggered a 50–60 pip drop in the dollar. From a technical perspective, the upwar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday's Trade Breakdown1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to slide lower, despite breaking the descending trendline three times. Thus, we still believe that the local downtrend has come to an end. However, the price has failed to break above the 1.1754 level after six attempts. In our opinion, the US dollar still has no foundation for a medium-term rally, so we expect the upward movement in EUR/USD to resume in any case. The only question is — when? Currently, the market shows little interest in opening long positions, despite all necessary conditions being present. Monday's session didn't clarify much. From the start of the day, the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tuesday Trade Review1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued falling despite an entirely empty macroeconomic calendar. The U.S. dollar, which had declined throughout 2025, is now unexpectedly rising — and many analysts are scrambling to find explanations for this move. There are no convincing arguments in favor of dollar strength this week. Last week, the dollar at least moved sideways, although even that didn't make sense considering the weak overall macro and fundamental backdrop. To recap: ISM business activity indexes came in weak, U.S. employment data disappointed again, and a government shutdown began in the U.S. We believe there are …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Breakdown:1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded in both directions while maintaining a downward bias on the hourly timeframe. The main decline occurred during the Asian session, so even the one major macroeconomic report — Germany's industrial production, which disappointed significantly — had virtually no impact on the euro. In the evening, the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting revealed that about half of the committee members expect further monetary easing. The key interest rate could be cut two more times by year-end. However, this information had already been public knowledge since September 17, the date of the Fede…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday's Trade Breakdown: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded very weakly on Monday. No macroeconomic or fundamental events were scheduled for the first trading day of the week, so the minimal volatility is not surprising. The market has been trading very sluggishly in recent weeks and months, and the daily timeframe (as a reminder) continues to show flat movement, which we consider a key point in analyzing the EUR/USD pair. We understand that traders (especially beginners) want to make trades and earn profits every day. However, it is essential to recognize that periods of flat trading and news lulls occur in the market. Of course, it's up…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Market Review Thursday: 1H Chart of EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded slightly more actively on the fourth trading day of the week than in the previous three days, but only for about half an hour. Recall that reports were published in the United States yesterday that the market had been waiting for a long time and presumably did not want to resume active trading without. These reports are the NonFarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. The data was supposed to be released in September, and we had already warned that no significant conclusions could be drawn from it because it was already outdated. However, we did expect a strong market reaction, especial…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, though the pace throughout the day remained very slow, despite a relatively large number of macroeconomic reports. In Germany alone, reports on retail sales, unemployment, jobless claims, and inflation were released. The data was mixed, but we believe that the inflation figure is currently the most important. In Germany, inflation rose more than forecast, giving grounds to expect a rise in eurozone-wide inflation. Higher inflation across the eurozone makes any new ECB rate cut nearly impossible and even opens up the possibility of future rate hikes. Naturally,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade erratically, effectively moving sideways. The primary reason behind this choppy and unattractive behavior was the macroeconomic environment. Both the EU and the U.S. released several significant reports, each triggering its own market reaction. The day began with euro area inflation data, which, unlike German inflation, did not exceed forecasts. This disappointed traders and triggered a decline in the value of the euro. Later during the U.S. session, an extremely weak ADP labor market report was published. This report could serve as the main reference going forward if…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review for Thursday: 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly collapsed. This does not mean the dollar strengthened enough to start a new local "dollar trend." However, this week's movements have been very mixed and illogical, with the market ignoring many factors unfavorable for the U.S. currency. As noted, the dollar had formal reasons to fall yesterday. The eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.3%, which could have triggered the euro's decline. Yet, in the U.S., a government shutdown has just begun, and the labor market once again showed weakness. In our view, these two factors are far more important than the EU unemploymen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday showed a downward move for inexplicable reasons. Recall that the annual NonFarm Payrolls report was supposed to be released that day—a report that initially bore nothing good for the US dollar. In the end, the annual Nonfarm figure was revised down by almost 1 million jobs. So, the dollar had excellent chances to continue its decline yesterday. But instead, we saw it rise. It's important to note that trading is taking place on the 5-minute chart. In this trading style (intraday), trades rarely depend on the nature of macroeconomic events. In other words, two trading signals were formed yeste…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility and without any trend. This is now the second day in a row this week that the market has shown completely illogical movements. We'll leave aside what's happening in the crypto market—there's little logic there either. Recall that on Tuesday, the annual Nonfarm Payrolls report was published. Although it didn't reveal anything new—US labor market contraction continues—it remains an important report that traders ignored. Yesterday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a price decline of 0.1% in August. We don't believe this drop in PPI will have any impac…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair demonstrated strong growth on Thursday and continues to remain in its new upward trend, although the movement is still somewhat weak. It feels like market makers are waiting for the right moment—and that moment has not yet arrived. Recall that the dollar still has every reason to keep falling: nothing has fundamentally improved in the US lately to justify a dollar rally. Yesterday, the ECB decided to keep all monetary policy parameters unchanged, signaling to the market that policy easing won't occur any time soon. Meanwhile, the Fed is set to resume cutting its key rate as early as next week, and in …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no interesting movements on Friday. Only two reports throughout the day could have theoretically attracted traders' attention. In the morning, Germany released the second estimate of the consumer price index for August. Unsurprisingly, the second estimate matched the first, prompting no market reaction. In the second half of the day, the US Consumer Sentiment Index was released, which declined noticeably compared to August, from 58.2 points to 55.4 points. This report could have triggered a drop in the dollar, but it didn't. The day's total volatility was 45 pips, which eloquently spea…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement in line with the prevailing trend. Despite the absence of any significant macroeconomic releases, the euro kept appreciating at a steady pace. Recall that over the past one and a half to two months, market volatility has sharply declined, which affects the quality of trades and signals. In simple terms, signals may be strong, but the lack of movement prevents traders from profiting from them. Yesterday's first speech by Christine Lagarde this week brought no new information for traders, as expected. The ECB laid out its plan last week, leaving no open questions. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement. The hourly timeframe clearly shows the formation of a new bullish trend, and on the daily timeframe, the trend of 2025 is officially back in force. There's no point even searching for new reasons behind the dollar's latest fall. None of the four somewhat important reports yesterday had anything to do with the euro's growth. US retail sales and industrial production both exceeded forecasts, which should have caused the pair to fall. However, the global fundamental backdrop continues to exert powerful pressure on the US dollar. From time to time, the dollar does correct,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair traded on Wednesday fully in line with the fundamental background. For almost the entire day, market movements were ultra-weak, as traders awaited the results of the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell's press conference. All other events of the day were irrelevant, even though another set of weak U.S. reports was published — this time in the construction sector. After the Fed's decision was announced, "fireworks" began. As we warned, volatility increased, and the price moved in both directions. First, the dollar dropped 70 pips in 10 minutes, then strengthened by 100 pips over the next several hours. Today, it may…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement after Wednesday evening, though we consider this move to lack logic. If you think about it, there was not a single reason for the euro to fall on Thursday, nor for the dollar to rise. However, the Bank of England's meeting triggered a drop in the pound sterling, which, in turn, pulled the euro down as well. Yet there were no strong reasons for the pound's decline in recent days—the BoE took an absolutely neutral stance, UK inflation was unchanged and matched forecasts, and the unemployment rate was also steady and aligned with market expectations. The same can be sa…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
