Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12290 tópicos neste fórum
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair fell unexpectedly and even consolidated below the ascending trendline. In fact, the recent decline in the pair occurred for no clear reason. We didn't see and still don't see any solid fundamental or macroeconomic grounds for the euro's drop, especially yesterday. Nevertheless, the technical picture is now bearish, but not everything is so straightforward. The 1.1737 level has halted the euro's decline for the second time. Therefore, we believe the fall may finish here. Traders are in a favorable position now: if the price breaks below 1.1737, everything will become clear—the trend has …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Thursday after consolidating below the ascending trend line. Thus, from a technical analysis perspective, this was an entirely logical move. The trend has shifted to bearish, so a decline is expected. However, Thursday's drop did not result solely from technical factors. During the US trading session, reports were published that we had previously advised paying attention to: durable goods orders and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. Both reports delivered much stronger results than traders and experts had expected, which triggered a sharp strengthening of the dollar. Thus,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD pair began a natural upward movement. Over the past week, we observed another technical correction, as the euro had no fundamental reasons for a significant decline. The results of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings could have been interpreted in different ways — and that's precisely what the market did. Speeches from Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde also did not materially alter the situation and did not indicate a shift in central bank sentiment. The only support for the dollar came from the U.S. Q2 GDP report. On Friday, however, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement for most of Monday. It cannot be said that the dollar fell too sharply, but the decline has now lasted for two consecutive days. Nor can it be said that the threat of a U.S. government shutdown or Donald Trump's new import tariffs triggered a collapse of the dollar, although in the first half of 2025, such factors would almost certainly have done so. Thus, under current conditions, the U.S. dollar remains relatively stable. On the hourly timeframe, we have drawn a descending trendline, but it is rather tentative. On Monday, there were no important macroeconomic releases in either th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher on Monday, with no particular reasons given. The macroeconomic backdrop was essentially absent on Monday, except for a few reports from Germany, which aroused no interest among traders, as expected. However, we'd like to remind you that in recent weeks, while the pair was stuck in a clear flat trend, we repeatedly said we expected only the euro to rise and the dollar to fall. The fundamental background for the US currency remains downright disastrous, so nothing but further decline can be expected. Also, recall that the US labor market and unemployment data published on Friday failed spect…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades on Tuesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair showed no interesting movements on Tuesday, despite the presence of a fundamental and macroeconomic background. Yesterday, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave a speech, and the U.S. released the JOLTs and ADP reports. We immediately warned that one should not expect much from U.S. reports, as they either relate to a period no longer relevant or reflect changes over just one week. In fact, the JOLTs reports provided the dollar with some support (as the number of job openings in September and October exceeded forecasts), but we essentially saw the same movements as in the previous …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades on Wednesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Wednesday, with a similar fundamental backdrop. However, it should be noted that the British currency began to rise well before the publication of the Federal Reserve's decision on rates and Jerome Powell's speech. Thus, as we anticipated, the upward trend for the British pound is maintained and gaining momentum. The market finally responded to the Fed's monetary easing as expected—by selling the dollar. Even the announcement of a pause in rate cuts at the beginning of 2026 did not deter traders from disposing of US currency. We have long anticipated a resumption of t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Deal Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart for GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday amid the Federal Reserve meeting. In previous articles, we mentioned that the market could react to such an important event for up to 24 hours. This time, there were no drastic fluctuations, but overall, the market reaction to the US central bank's meeting was not extraordinarily tumultuous. Rather, the GBP/USD pair resumed its upward trend, which has been forming for three weeks. As we warned, the British pound is expected to rise after a long five-month correction on the daily timeframe. Therefore, regardless of the Fed meeting, we only anticipate growth. The…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Deal Analysis for Friday: 1H Chart for GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair experienced a slight correction on Friday, within an upward trend that has been developing for several weeks. The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop was absent, as the market rested after the important Fed meeting and prepared for an even more significant week, during which the long-awaited reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation will be published in the US, along with the inflation report, unemployment report, and the Bank of England meeting in the UK. As we can see, this week will feature not just important, but super-important events, so there are good grounds to expect higher vol…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Monday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also traded very sluggishly on Monday. The market found no compelling reasons to open positions ahead of several blocks of important data and fundamental events in the US, EU, and the UK. Reports will begin publication today. If interesting reports are released in the Eurozone, they are not particularly important, whereas in the UK, they are indeed crucial. For example, the unemployment rate, which has been rising recently, directly affects the Bank of England's monetary policy. The next meeting of the BoE is scheduled for this Thursday, and in the meantime, UK inflation will also be published…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Tuesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also surged upward on Tuesday, having initially bounced off the ascending trend line. Throughout the day, traders received several technical buy signals. In addition to these signals, important reports were published in the UK in the morning, which were initially challenging for beginner traders to decipher, but they logically triggered an increase in the pair. We believe the key report was not the unemployment rate but the wage growth. Wages have a direct impact on inflation levels, and inflation, in turn, influences the monetary policy of the Bank of England. Thus, stronger wage growth mean…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Wednesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday, recovered, and then resumed a new downward move. The ascending trendline has been broken, so a correction may occur in the near future. Yesterday, the UK inflation report was published, providing a definitive conclusion on the Bank of England's monetary policy decision scheduled for today. There is now no doubt that the British central bank will cut the key interest rate, which is a bearish factor for the British currency. While this decision may already be partially priced in, a decline could still be observed today, as the BoE may adopt a more dov…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair traded mixed on Thursday, reflecting a mixed fundamental backdrop. It was a complex day, especially for novice traders. The difficulty lay in interpreting all the information received. For instance, the Bank of England lowered the key interest rate, prompting many to expect a decline in the British currency. However, the market had already anticipated monetary policy easing since Wednesday, when the UK inflation report was published. Inflation sharply declined, opening the door for the BoE to lower the key rate. Therefore, it can be said that this decision was priced in beforehand. At the same…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Monday's Trades: 1-Hour Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair showed no notable movements on Friday or Monday. On Monday, business activity indices for the manufacturing sectors in the UK and the US were released, but attention was primarily on the US ISM index. This index turned out to be weaker than forecasts and weaker than the previous month, yet after its release, the dollar still rose, as market participants likely had already priced in its negative value. Unfortunately, ordinary traders have little power against insider information available to some major players. Overall, the British pound has remained stagnant for three full days, caught in yet anoth…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review for Friday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair traded even worse on Friday than the EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, another flat range has formed in the British currency, clearly visible on the hourly timeframe. For seven consecutive days, the quotes have been within the range of 1.3331-1.3437. What is this, if not a flat? This week, significant macroeconomic information was published in the UK and the U.S., and there was also the Bank of England meeting, the results of which are not trivial by any means. If reports on inflation, unemployment, and business activity indices, along with the BoE meeting, failed to trigger a trend or volatility, how ca…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Tuesday's Trades: 1H Chart for GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair traded "as if at a wake" on Tuesday. First, we witnessed another decline in the currency pair, with no clear reasons apparent. Secondly, the market effectively ignored the technical level of 1.3203, which had previously provided support twice. Thirdly, there is a possibility of forming a local range. Fourthly, the pair's volatility was 43 pips. Under these conditions, trading could not have been better. Nevertheless, with considerable effort, the British pound is still maintaining an upward trend. Thus, continued growth can be anticipated. However, this is unlikely to be rapid growth that enables eas…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Breakdown for Wednesday: 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair showed a strong upward movement on Wednesday, which may seem strange to many beginners. Indeed, in the UK, only a single services sector business activity index was published, while U.S. data came out after the pair had already made most of its upward journey. In other words, the British pound started to rise during the night when there were no news events, except for some vague remarks from Donald Trump. However, there was nothing new in the statements about the appointment of the new Fed head. Trump mentioned back in the summer that he would soon announce the name of the new central bank chairman. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair attempted to extend its upward move on Thursday, but the market calmed after a volatile Wednesday and was unable to push it significantly higher. Nevertheless, the local upward trend on the hourly timeframe is maintained, so it is reasonable to expect and hope for continued growth. On Thursday, there were no significant events or reports in the UK, while in the US, traders had to settle for a less important unemployment claims report. The report turned out to be much better than forecasts, as the number of new initial claims was significantly lower. The dollar received a slight boost in the af…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Friday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair showed a disappointing performance on Friday, a reminder of the excellent first half of 2025, when high-volatility trending moves occurred almost every day. The same reports from across the ocean triggered a similar meager market reaction in the GBP/USD pair—a strengthening of the dollar by 25-30 pips. The events calendar in the UK was empty, resulting in virtually no movements during the first half of the day. Overall, the upward trend remains relevant, and novice traders can expect further growth. Support for the British pound comes from the support area of 1.3319-1.3331 (the updated area), …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Monday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair On Monday, the GBP/USD pair exhibited virtually no trading activity. The volatility of the British pound was even lower than that of the European currency. The price continued its insignificant decline toward the ascending trend line, and we consider the preservation of the upward trend for the British pound to be a positive sign – the trend for the euro may also recover. There were no reasons for the euro to decline on Monday, so we witnessed another illogical drop. This decline appears especially illogical ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where the rate will be cut for the third consecutive time. The U.S.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's Trade Analysis: 1-Hour Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Friday, but the British currency is under a clear descending trend line, so it is still too early to discuss the end of this downward trend. It should be noted that the pound sterling, like the euro, has been declining for a month and a half. Fairly speaking, the pound has had occasional factors contributing to its decline (unlike the euro), but the pound has depreciated much more than the European currency. Overall, the global fundamental backdrop remains significantly unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. Thus, it is also not possible to explain the one-and-a-half-month decline of th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Monday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair attempted to continue its upward movement from recent days on Monday, but overall, it moved sideways more than up. This is not surprising, as no significant news became available to traders on Monday. Of course, the news about the possible end of the "shutdown" can be considered "important," but let's remember that the "shutdown" is not yet over, and what is being discussed is a temporary truce between the Democrats and Republicans and temporary funding for the U.S. government and its services. As early as next year, America could very well face a new "shutdown" if the Democrats and Republicans …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis of Tuesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair traded up and down throughout Tuesday. In the morning, the only data published in the UK provided traders with some basis for opening trading positions. In principle, one report was enough to send the British pound falling again. The unemployment rate rose, but it increased more than expected, to 5%. Additionally, the number of unemployed rose more sharply than anticipated. Therefore, the British pound's morning decline was entirely logical. However, shortly after that, the pair began to rise, and closer to the end of the day, it fell again. On the hourly timeframe, the price remains below the d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis of Wednesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair again gravitated toward decline throughout Wednesday but failed to settle below the level of 1.3107, which still gives the British currency a chance for growth. However, today reports on GDP and industrial production will be published in the UK, which may present another stumbling block for the pound. On a global scale (on the daily timeframe), a downward correction against the upward trend continues, so we still expect growth from the pair. Let's remind ourselves that corrections or flats can take considerable time, especially on the daily chart. Therefore, the current illogical downward move…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis of Thursday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 1.3107 level on Thursday, which we identified as strong support, showing new growth and breaking the trend line, only to pull back immediately after. We believe the downward trend is over, but, as often happens, the pair may first correct before resuming its growth. Despite the British currency falling again overnight, it was in an upward trend for most of the previous day. Were there local reasons for this? No, there were not. If the pair had dropped by 100 pips yesterday, it would have been reasonable given the news and events throughout the day. Recall that the official co…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
