Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12290 tópicos neste fórum
-
Trade Analysis for Friday: 1H Chart for GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair traded sideways on Friday. Over the past week, the British pound failed to mount an upward impulse or to initiate a new decline. The macroeconomic backdrop has not supported the British currency, but it has not shown any significant decline either. The global fundamental backdrop remains sharply unfavorable to the dollar, yet the dollar itself did not decline. The descending trendline has been broken, but the pair has not been able to consolidate above it or the 1.3203 level. A global upward trend remains, but there has been a correction for several consecutive months. In the short term, we can expect t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Tuesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair traded sideways on Tuesday with minimal volatility. No important events or reports were scheduled for yesterday, and the flat movement is clearly visible from a kilometer away. The price has been trading between 1.3107 and 1.3203 for over a week, making trading purely based on rebounds from the boundaries of the sideways channel the only option for opening positions. Unfortunately, market movements are currently so weak that the price doesn't always even reach the boundaries of the channel. Consequently, the market is in a total standstill at this time. The market is clearly waiting for impor…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Analysis: 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also moved lower on Wednesday. It should be acknowledged that the British pound had reasons for its new decline, as it has been continuously bombarded with negative information from the UK. Last week, it became known that unemployment had risen significantly, industrial production had declined, and GDP had declined. Additionally, it was announced yesterday that UK inflation slowed to 3.6%, giving the Bank of England the green light to lower the key rate at its December meeting. Thus, the global fundamental background remains sharply negative for the dollar, while the local context repeatedly provokes decl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's Trade Review: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair traded in a new sideways channel on Friday. Recall that the price spent two weeks in the 1.3107-1.3203 channel and then settled below it, only to immediately become stuck in the next channel at 1.3043-1.3107. At the same time, a new downward trend has formed, as indicated by the trend line. As we can see, market movements remain far from the most attractive, but profit can still be made in a flat market. The illustration above shows that over two trading days, the price bounced off the boundaries of the new flat four times. Each of these opportunities allowed traders to open rebound trades. Regardin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Analysis: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair did not trade on Monday. Of course, this could not have been the case in reality, but in terms of market movements in the British pound, there was a noticeable absence, clearly visible on any timeframe. Thus, there is essentially nothing to analyze based on yesterday's data. We could write a bunch of unnecessary information about the speeches of various officials or geopolitical events, but what is the point if the market shows no interest in this information and does not react? Overall, the British pound has been trading within another sideways channel for three consecutive days. This time, it is b…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis of Tuesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also rose on Tuesday, driven by the same factors that were influencing the European currency. A few days ago, the descending trend line was broken; macroeconomic data yesterday were unfavorable for the US dollar; and, in the long term (despite a prolonged correction), an upward trend remains. The global fundamental backdrop remains favorable to the British pound, despite disappointing economic data over the last month and confusion about the 2026 budget. However, persistent budget issues cannot keep pulling down the British currency, and British data are currently not much worse than American on…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Wednesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Wednesday, though there were few compelling reasons for the move. The only significant macroeconomic report of the day (durable goods orders in the U.S.) was positive (and prompted a rise in the dollar), while the publication of the final budget draft for 2026 in the UK cannot clearly be described as positive (though it's possible to find a silver lining in any barrel of tar). Nevertheless, by the end of the day, the British pound appreciated. We have repeatedly warned that much of the GBP/USD pair's decline over the past two months has been illogical. In other words, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair corrected slightly on Thursday, retracing from Wednesday's highs. There were no macroeconomic or fundamental factors present, so traders found no grounds for new purchases of the British currency, which has been struggling to rise as of late. We continue to believe that a global downward correction is underway on the daily timeframe, and therefore, expect its completion and the resumption of the upward trend. The UK budget is no longer exerting pressure on the British pound, as it has already been accepted and the market has successfully absorbed its negative aspects over the past two months. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Friday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Friday but bounced back by the end of the day. As a reminder, the British pound has been falling for an entire month with no clear reason for the decline. On Friday, the European currency could theoretically drop on the EU inflation report, whereas the pound has no grounds for falling at all. There were no significant reports or events in either the UK or the US during the day. Therefore, it can be said that the illogical decline of the pair continues. However, on the daily timeframe, the price reached the lower line of the sideways channel (1.3140) and has bee…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review for Monday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair On Monday, the GBP/USD pair made yet another attempt to break through the level of 1.3107, resulting in a third bounce. However, traders are not giving up and will attempt a fourth try to push lower today. The recent movement of the British pound can best be characterized as "paradoxical." There are no legitimate grounds for the pound to decline, yet the price continues to drop almost daily. On Monday, the only somewhat significant report fell short for the US dollar. Thus, based solely on this report, one could have anticipated a rise in the pair. We note that in recent weeks, there have been virtually no correct…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Breakdown for Tuesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday. This time, the decline of the British currency was "provoked" by a new speech from the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves. It's noteworthy that in recent months, almost every speech by Reeves triggers a crash in the British currency. Initially, such market reactions could be seen as justified, but yesterday they were not. The British pound has been falling for over a month for absolutely any reason. Even when no reasons exist, it continues to decline. Therefore, the new speech from Reeves was just another excuse for the pound to drop even …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Wednesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant on Wednesday. If the U.S. dollar had continued to rise yesterday, it would not have come as a surprise, as there were solid reasons for the dollar to rise—namely, the ISM services activity index and the ADP report both showed higher values than anticipated. However, there is still very little logic in the current market movements. More precisely, the dependency of movements on macroeconomic and fundamental factors is minimal. The GBP/USD pair continues to trade based solely on technical factors. The situation we observe is as follows: on Monday and Tuesday, the doll…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Thursday, which makes little sense. Recall that the British currency had been declining for more than a month and was falling more sharply than the euro, often without any justification. However, yesterday, following the Bank of England's meeting, which surprised traders, the pound sterling rose. The British central bank left the key rate unchanged, but this decision was not unanimous among the bank officials. We could even say it was "on the edge." Four members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate cut while five voted to keep it unchanged. Thus, literally one vote co…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's Trade Review: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also showed signs of recovery on Friday, although in the first half of the session, it once again attempted to resume its decline and failed to break through the descending trendline. Therefore, the downtrend remains in effect for now, even though it is entirely illogical. The rise of the dollar should have come to an end a week ago. Even then, there were more than enough reasons for the U.S. currency to resume falling. Over the past week, those reasons have only multiplied, especially after Donald Trump initiated a new round of trade war escalation with China—a key reason for the dollar's collapse …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review: 1H Chart of GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair showed absolutely no interesting movement on Monday. While the euro (for unknown reasons) declined during the first half of the day, the British pound remained stationary throughout the day. However, overnight into Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair managed to break through a descending trendline, indicating a logical and long-awaited end to the descending trend. Let us recall that in the past two weeks, the British currency had very few reasons to fall, while the U.S. dollar had few reasons to rise. We do not deny the necessity of occasional corrections—and on the daily timeframe, we do acknowledge the presence o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Review of Tuesday's Trades:1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair moved both upward and downward. However, the British pound had additional reasons to decline early in the session. In the morning, the UK released reports on unemployment and jobless claims, which triggered a sell-off in the pound. Contrary to forecasts and expectations, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1%, and the number of newly unemployed rose by 26,000—significantly above projections. As a result, the decline in sterling was entirely justified. In the second half of the day, Jerome Powell offered some relief for the pound. Once again, he stated that the Federal Reserve has no specific…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review for Wednesday:1-Hour GBP/USD Chart The GBP/USD pair rose confidently throughout Wednesday, which is a very positive signal. In recent weeks, we have repeatedly pointed to the illogical nature of the pair's decline, so this latest rise appears to be a "debt repaid" to the British currency. While there have indeed been negative headlines for the pound in recent weeks, they pale in comparison to the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop weighing on the U.S. dollar. Yesterday, there were no significant events or economic releases in either the UK or the U.S. that could justify a rise in GBP/USD. This move is even more noteworthy, as it strongly suggests that…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Friday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair traded completely illogically on Friday. From the very morning, the market had decent grounds for buying the British currency, which would have been fully supported by the current technical picture and the global fundamental backdrop. In the UK, business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors for October, as well as retail sales data, were published. All three reports exceeded analysts' expectations, providing substantial reasons for buying. Yet we did not observe any market reaction, even a minimal one, to the relatively positive UK reports. In the U.S., the inflation repor…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair also traded upward, albeit with minimal volatility. The mere fact that the British pound is rising is already positive, as in recent weeks the market has completely ignored macroeconomic and fundamental factors that, in fact, suggested the pair's growth. We previously mentioned that the key issue is the flatness on the daily timeframe, which causes weak, illogical movements on lower timeframes. However, the flat will not last forever, so one must be prepared for a new, powerful movement. Given the current conditions, such a movement can only be expected in one direction – north. There were…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Tuesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair unexpectedly plunged on Tuesday, like a stone. The UK and U.S. calendars were empty yesterday, so the sharp decline of the British currency mystified many. The situation became clearer in the second half of the day, when it was revealed that UK Treasury Secretary Rachel Reeves expressed her opinion on Brexit. According to her, leaving the EU was a mistake (though she hinted at it), and the government is currently working to strengthen and restore ties with the European Union and many other countries around the world. In our view, this is a relatively weak reason to sell the pound, but in recent…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Analysis: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair displayed a similar dynamic to the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday, but only in the evening. The difference between the movements of the euro and the pound this week lies in the inexplicable and unjustified collapse of the British pound, once again provoked by the UK's Treasury Chief, Rachel Reeves. Without going into details, the pound was declining humorously even before the FOMC meeting. Regarding the Federal Reserve's meeting, the movements occurred exactly as we predicted. The pair sharply plummeted with no apparent catalyst, as Jerome Powell did not promise a new rate cut in December, which great…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement despite no noteworthy events in either the UK or the US. However, the FOMC results were announced the day before, and just a couple of days ago, UK Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves gave a speech, which the market usually reacts to by selling the pound. Even though Reeves did not announce anything particularly resonant and the Federal Reserve made a decision that everyone anticipated, the British pound keeps falling. We still consider the decline of the British currency to be illogical, a point we have been making for several weeks. This narrative began …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Review1H Chart – GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair exhibited a slight bullish movement that didn't affect the overall technical picture. Since breaking the downward trendline, the upward movement has yet to truly begin. As with the euro, this kind of behavior raises many questions. Just last week, the U.S. government experienced a shutdown (a major event clearly weighing on the economy), the only labor market report (ADP) came in extremely weak, and the ISM business activity indices signaled economic slowdown. So, the market currently has plenty of reasons to sell the U.S. dollar—yet it's not happening. Mid-term, GBP still maintains a bullish bias, but …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday's Trade Breakdown1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair moved both upward and downward throughout the day. Traders failed for the third consecutive time to break above the 1.3413 level, and overall, the pound's movements increasingly resemble a flat market. For context, the EUR/USD isn't currently in a flat phase, but its movement is erratic due to frequent corrections and pullbacks, along with a lack of growth despite the end of the previous downtrend. The British pound lacked any major news on Monday. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey did speak, but he didn't provide the market with any significantly new or impactful insights. In the m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tuesday's Trade Review1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On both Tuesday and Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to move downward, with no apparent reason for this decline. Many analysts have attributed the strength of the dollar to the political crisis in France. However, that doesn't explain why the British pound is falling too. Could it be that it's the dollar rising? However, let's recall that on Monday and Tuesday, no significant U.S. events occurred, and the U.S. Senate failed for the fifth time to pass a budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Is that reason enough for the dollar to rise? Because the government shutdown continues? That's why we consider this movement…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
