Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12290 tópicos neste fórum
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Wednesday Trade Review:1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On Wednesday (and into Thursday), the GBP/USD pair continued a weak downward movement — despite having virtually no fundamental reason for doing so. Let's recall that the trend for the pound turned bullish after the downward trendline was broken. There's been no meaningful macroeconomic or fundamental news for the British currency this week. On the other hand, U.S. developments — including the ongoing government shutdown and unrest in Chicago — clearly don't favor dollar strength. Last week's U.S. economic data fell short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates two more times before year-end. All of…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday's Trade Breakdown: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair traded sideways on Monday with minimal volatility. There were no important events or reports scheduled for that day, and the flat movement is clearly visible. The price has been trading between 1.3107 and 1.3203 for over a week, leaving only the option to open positions on rebounds from the boundaries of the sideways channel. Unfortunately, market movements are currently so weak that the price doesn't always even reach the boundaries of the channel. Therefore, the market is in a complete standstill right now. The market is clearly waiting for important macroeconomic information from the U.S. and …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Market Review Thursday: 1H Chart of GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair traded higher on Thursday, but with extremely low volatility. Despite the release of two crucial reports on the U.S. labor market and unemployment, neither report sparked volatility at the time. The British pound rose from the level of 1.3043 to 1.3107, but now a new, yet another descending trend line has been formed, which must be overcome in order to expect further growth of the British currency. We have already mentioned that reports on NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment are important, but the data from yesterday does not allow for any conclusions about the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year or…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair was practically motionless. Although the downtrend on the hourly time frame can be considered complete, as the trendline has been broken, traders are hesitant to open new positions. This market standstill is easily explained by caution ahead of major U.S. labor market and unemployment reports scheduled for release on Friday. However, these key reports might not even be published due to the government shutdown, which begins today. To recap, a shutdown is a temporary suspension of government operations and funding due to the absence of an approved budget for the next fiscal year. Until Republicans and…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also influenced by macroeconomic factors. Since there were no major UK data releases during the day, the British pound avoided participating in the early-morning decline that affected other currencies. Given the generally unfavorable macro and fundamental backdrop for the U.S. dollar, the pound continued its steady appreciation. The selloff in the dollar accelerated after the release of the extremely weak U.S. ADP employment report. The subsequent ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly better, which helped the dollar recover briefly. However, it's important to remember that the U.S. governme…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review for Thursday:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD also showed a downward move, despite the British pound having no real reason to fall. As mentioned earlier, this week's movements in the FX market have been very strange and illogical. Such moves are not rare, and when they do not align with the fundamental or macroeconomic background, the best approach is to acknowledge their illogicality rather than trying to force-fit news or data to explain them. There were no significant events in the UK or the U.S. yesterday, although earlier this week, at least two events could have triggered a major dollar sell-off—but didn't. That's the main "strangeness" …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded lower on Tuesday, but by the end of the day, the British pound lost much less than the euro. Thus, the pound's position remains much more promising compared to the euro. On the second trading day of the week, there were no important events in the UK, while in the US, the annual Non-Farm Payrolls report was published. Although the total Nonfarm figure for the last 12 months was revised downward by 911,000, this didn't really upset traders. We would say that the report was largely ignored. Nevertheless, we believe that the negative fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to build up. Over the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair also traded strictly sideways with minimal volatility. There were no significant events scheduled for Wednesday, but let's recall that this week already saw the NonFarm Payrolls report and the Producer Price Index. Today, the US inflation report will be released. It also became known that the US Supreme Court reinstated Lisa Cook, whom Donald Trump fired a few weeks ago. So, the battle between Trump and the Federal Reserve continues, and the American president still cannot do anything about the FOMC's unwillingness to cut rates by 2–3% at once. Thus, the US dollar already had plenty of reasons t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also showed decent growth on Thursday, mainly due to the US inflation report. Many traders are now wondering why the dollar fell again if US inflation rose (which is usually bullish for the dollar). After all, rising inflation means the Fed has less reason to cut the key rate aggressively. That's true, but for the last two weeks it's been clear that the Fed's No. 1 priority is now saving the labor market, which has been weak for four straight months. Thus, two rate cuts by year-end are now practically a done deal. The fact that US inflation is rising—who can be surprised by that during a global trade war the U…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also showed absolutely no interesting movement. Throughout the day, the pair was stuck between two areas: 1.3529–1.3543 and 1.3574–1.3590. On the hourly timeframe, an upward trend persists, but at this point, it's not possible to draw a local ascending trendline, and the market is in no hurry to develop the uptrend. The British pound remains very close to its highs of the past several years, and there are plenty of reasons for the US dollar to fall. Nevertheless, in recent weeks, we have observed low volatility, which is the main reason for the lack of solid trending movement. On Friday, relatively im…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, GBP/USD also continued its upward movement, even without local drivers. Still, the pound remains well-positioned against the U.S. dollar, so it can rise even without fresh macroeconomic inputs. Recall that the trend on the hourly timeframe is bullish, on the daily timeframe as well, while the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop collapsed in September. This week, the Bank of England will keep its key rate unchanged, while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut it. Over the next year, the Fed may cut rates multiple times, whereas the BoE is very unlikely to do so. Everything points to the dollar continuing to fall, with only te…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher, but in a much calmer and more familiar fashion. The trendline remains relevant, so only further growth of the British pound should be expected, both in the short and long term. Yesterday's UK reports were bland and were clearly not the reason for the pound's rise. US figures beat forecasts, but the market simply ignored them. Today, an important UK inflation report is scheduled for release in about an hour and a half. The Fed meeting is later in the evening, and the Bank of England meets tomorrow. Therefore, volatility over the next 24 hours could be elevated, and we might see a lot of sharp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair on Wednesday showed movements similar to those of the EUR/USD pair. In the morning, the U.K. released an important inflation report, but its significance turned out to be as "bland" as other reports this week. Traders barely noticed it. Inflation in the U.K. remained at 3.8%, which will not affect today's Bank of England decision in any way. The British central bank will, without question, keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, and the main intrigue lies in how the votes of Monetary Policy Committee members will be distributed in the rate decision. Even if the BoE meeting turns out more "dovish" than expe…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair exhibited movements on Thursday similar to those of EUR/USD—or rather, it would be more accurate to say that EUR/USD mirrored GBP/USD. The key event of the day was the Bank of England meeting. After the results were announced, the British pound continued to decline, despite the absence of strong reasons for it to fall, even on Wednesday evening. The BoE left its monetary policy unchanged and noted that core inflation is slowing and wage growth is decelerating—subtly opening the door for another policy easing this year. However, we don't really see any slowdown. Headline inflation in the UK has been rising for …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair dropped sharply and unexpectedly once again. There was no macroeconomic or fundamental news yesterday, but over the last two days, speeches from the heads of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve may have prompted the fall of the British pound. We believe the issue was not so much in the rhetoric of Bailey or Powell, but in the market's interpretation of their statements. For example, many think Powell "closed the door" to aggressive monetary easing. Maybe he did—but the Fed never really opened that door in the first place. The market came up with this narrative on its own, and then became disappointed.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also plunged on Thursday. Recall that the British pound had grounds for its latest downward move. We cannot say these reasons were unambiguous—many factors were interpreted by the market against the pound, though they could've been seen the other way around. However, on Thursday, the US GDP and durable goods orders reports could only be interpreted as favorable to the US dollar. Q2 GDP came in at +3.8%, while durable goods orders rose by 2.9%—in both cases, much stronger than forecasts. Thus, more positive reports triggered growth in the US currency, fully supporting the current downward trend, now reaffirmed …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair began an upward move, and by Monday night, it had already broken through the local descending trendline. Thus, the bearish trend has been canceled. Recall that over the past week and a half, the pound sterling was caught in a vortex of negative developments, which triggered its decline — a scenario many traders did not expect. However, the global fundamental backdrop for GBP/USD remains unchanged, and therefore, we do not anticipate a further medium-term decline of the British currency. On Friday, the U.S. dollar came under pressure after the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index once again …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, GBP/USD also traded with a slight upward bias, but there is one important difference between the technical picture of the pound and that of the euro. The British currency consolidated above a fairly strong descending trendline and also broke through the key level of 1.3413. This strongly suggests that the pound's decline has ended. Recall that over the past two weeks the market used almost any reason to sell sterling, but overall the fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains much weaker. We tend to view the recent moves as just another correction within the broader uptrend, which will resume sooner or later. On Mond…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded in an ascending channel on Monday, despite the absence of significant or local reasons. By this, we mean that throughout the day, there were no important news releases or macroeconomic data from the UK or the US. However, the US data from last Friday are more than enough reason for the dollar to keep falling for a long time. Let's recall: the American currency dropped during the first 8 months of 2025, even while the Federal Reserve held its rate steady, and the Bank of England had already cut its rate three times. Now, due to high inflation, the British central bank is unlikely to ease monetary poli…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Global financial services company Western Union’s acquisition of International Money Express, Inc. (Intermex) is drawing attention from the crypto space, as analysts highlight its potential boost for Ripple and XRP. With Intermex confirmed as an On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) user of Ripple, the deal could strengthen blockchain-powered payment flows across the US while expanding Western Union’s retail and digital reach. Western Union Expansion Could Bolster XRP And Ripple Market expert ‘Xaif Crypto’ pointed out in an X social media post on Monday that Western Union’s $500 million all-cash acquisition of Intermex could have significant implications for Ripple and XRP. Accordi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Inflation news is affecting Bitcoin, with the BTC price pacing just below $110,000, trading at $109,480 after briefly punching through that resistance earlier in the week. Crypto traders are now looking to June 11’s Consumer Price Index release, a potential spark or a wet blanket, depending on how the numbers land. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index very likely could tank the market as well; the PMI services and manufacturing prices report is also abhorrently bad. Most likely the Fed will wait on cutting rates. As long as there is the tariffbullshit, no deals, the deadline not over, it’s all irrelevant. The first cut will be in September, if at all. DISCOVER: 9+ …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP has always been the top pick in crypto when it comes to banks, payments, and cross-border transfers. So when Solana suddenly landed a deal with Western Union, a lot of XRP holders were caught off guard. And it’s a huge deal too. Western Union is building a stablecoin on Solana, which gives SOL a massive edge in real-world payments. Ripple’s CEO has been saying for a while that banks would eventually adopt XRP, and he kind of called it. The race is still wide open. Solana’s stablecoin partnership is a significant move, but Ripple has established deep integrations with actual financial players. This competition isn’t just “payments vs. payments.” It’s payments + t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
This question is on many minds right now, but attempting to answer it is akin to reading tea leaves. The rate will be lowered, which should reduce demand for the US dollar. However, the market has known for several weeks that a rate cut is forthcoming, as reflected by the CME FedWatch tool. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's decision might already be priced in. The contradictions and uncertainties do not end there. The Fed has already lowered interest rates twice this autumn without hindering the dollar's stability during that time. Neither the government shutdown nor the new escalation of the trade war created problems for the American currency. If the dollar, for the most…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The dollar has stabilized ahead of the release of important US inflation data, starting today with the producer price inflation (PPI) report, and to be followed tomorrow by consumer inflation figures (CPI). How might these affect the dollar and the financial markets overall? Recall that the market already has well-founded expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in response to the extremely challenging situation in the labor market. It is assumed that the key rate will be cut by 0.25% as a matter of course, but there remains a significant probability—currently at 8%—of a 0.50% cut. For the most part, a 0.25% cut is already priced into the value of US …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Well, I think they're just a bit late to update their call as market expectations for the BOE have been quite settled for a while now. As things stand, traders are not seeing any more rate cuts for this year but are pricing in a strong probability of the next one being in February 2026. As for the first full rate cut priced in though, that will be for March next year. Besides inflation risks, the November budget is going to be a key factor to watch in taking stock of the fiscal side of things for the UK economy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Last reply by Ben Graham,
