Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12212 tópicos neste fórum
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The euro is trading around 1.1744 under bearish pressure after an unsuccessful attempt to break out of the downtrend channel. EUR/USD is now trading below the 38- and 200-period moving averages. The euro could find strong support around the 8/8 Murray level for a recovery. If the price falls below this level, the euro could continue its decline to the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.1630. Conversely, if the euro breaks and consolidates above 1.1773, we could expect it to resume its long-term bullish cycle, which could push EUR/USD up to +1/8 Murray level around 1.1840. The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we believe the euro could continue its …
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Crypto markets have recently faced renewed challenges, despite a brief resurgence following the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut that initially propelled Bitcoin (BTC) back toward the $120,000 mark. This week, however, Bitcoin has dropped to the lower end of its established consolidation range, fluctuating between $110,000 and $115,000. Analysts from The Bull Theory have pinpointed several factors contributing to this downturn. How Fed Policies And QT Are Impacting Crypto One of the primary reasons for the current situation is the ongoing capital flow favoring traditional assets. In the wake of rate cuts, institutional investors tend to channel their funds into stoc…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday formed a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, working through the support zone of 1.3416–1.3425. A rebound from this zone favored the pound and led to some growth toward 1.3482. A consolidation above this level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 100.0% corrective level at 1.3587. The wave situation has turned "bearish." This happened suddenly and unexpectedly. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, but the last downward wave easily broke the previous low. The news background was mostly neutral for the pound la…
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South Africa’s Gold Fields (JSE: GFI) is reportedly selling a A$1.1 billion ($720 million) stake in Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), with JPMorgan running an auction process that began after Thursday’s market close. Gold Fields inherited the holding through its $2.4 billion takeover of Australian gold miner Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR), which won shareholder approval this week. The shares are being sold at a floor price of A$21.85 each, according to The Australian. This reflected a 2.7% discount to Northern Star’s last-traded price of A$22.66 before the sale was announced. The divestment comes amid record-breaking gold prices and only days after Gold Fie…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 25 Today's market was marked by a surprising disconnect. Usually, when the US dollar strengthens, it puts downward pressure on commodities like metals. However, with both the USD and precious metals rising significantly, the correlation is mixed up. This environment would be seen in risk-off markets but with bonds selling off harshly, the story isn't just about this. In a rare and ominous move, the US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, called for the assembly of all US Army generals across the world. Overall, participants are still scratching their head to understand what is preparing but a significant…
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Donald Trump wanted to achieve high rates of economic growth through a sharp reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate. However, Jerome Powell did not agree to the deal, and the FOMC Committee openly refused to make politically driven decisions. Trump was unable to convince the central bank of the need to lower the interest rate to 1-2%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also wonders why Powell did not promise a rate cut at the upcoming meetings. But Bessent and Trump are in the same boat, while Powell and the Fed's governors are in another. Therefore, the similarity in views on monetary policy between Trump and Bessent is not surprising. Since he failed to overpowe…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which is already starting to look at least somewhat unusual. Let's remember: explaining any move after the fact is easy if you want to. We try to avoid that kind of "analysis," where moves are merely explained after they happen, rather than predicted and properly analyzed. What's the point of telling people after a move has occurred why it happened? The pound sterling has been falling for about a week, losing around 300 pips from its latest high. That's quite a lot, but were there solid reasons for such a drop? Technically, yes. This is one of those cases where the market interpreted the information as…
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EUR/USD Yesterday's U.S. economic indicators came in better than expected. Q2 GDP was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.3%, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for Q2 came in at 2.6% versus the 2.5% estimate, and even the trade balance improved to -$85.5 billion from -$103.6 billion, with a forecast of -$95.7 billion—this is the best figure in the past two years. The dollar index rose by 0.71%, the euro lost 71 pips, and broke through the daily timeframe support indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator settled in bearish territory. The price is approaching the target support at 1.1605. A fir…
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The price of Bitcoin has had a mixed performance so far in 2025, falling to a low of around $74,000 in the first quarter of the year. The premier cryptocurrency has since set multiple all-time highs above the $120,000 mark over the past few months. However, while the Bitcoin price seems to have fallen into a consolidation phase in recent weeks, the general feeling in the market has always been that there remains an upside potential for the market leader. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has come forward to echo these sentiments while identifying the “biggest catalyst” to kickstart a potential rally. ‘Exceptionally Dovish’ Fed Chair Could Guide BTC To $200,000: Novograt…
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The European currency declined over the past week; however, it continues to attract demand among market participants overall. Most economists believe that by the end of the year, the euro will surpass the psychological barrier of $ 1.20. I fully agree with this view. In fact, I expect the European currency to trade even higher than 1.22 dollars by year-end. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. As I have already mentioned in my reviews this week, the euro's decline was, to some extent, an accident. Several factors converged at once: the pound's weakness, a strong U.S. GDP report, Jerome Powell's statements that were not sufficiently dovish, and the market's bearish interp…
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Reports have disclosed that 16 wallets picked up 431,018 Ether between September 25 and 27, spending about $1.73 billion to do so. The buys came through names like Kraken, Galaxy Digital, BitGo, FalconX and OKX. That scale of accumulation pushed attention back to who is buying the dip, and why larger players seem willing to add exposure while prices wobble. Exchange Balances Fall To 9-Year Low According to Glassnode data, the amount of ETH held on exchanges has plunged from roughly 31 million to about 14.8 million ETH — a drop of 52% from 2016 levels. Many of those coins are likely in staking contracts, cold wallets or institutional custody, and the recent launch of t…
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Solana started a fresh decline below the $225 zone. SOL price is now attempting to recover from $192 and faces hurdles near $215. SOL price started a fresh decline below $225 and $220 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $200 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $200 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start another decline if it stays below $215 and $220. Solana Price Dips Again Solana price failed to stay above $220 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL traded below the $212 and $205 support levels to enter a b…
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Top crypto commentator CryptoinsightUK argues that market consensus has misread the setup for XRP and altcoins, contending that sentiment, liquidity positioning, and cross-asset relationships point to an imminent phase in which XRP could outperform even a resurgent ETH. In his latest Weekly Insight (Week 161, Sept. 27, 2025), the analyst opens with a blunt reset of stance: “I am bullish.” He acknowledges the psychological toll of recent chop and public pushback—“I am getting pushback from all sides for staying bullish… But I also do not really care”—yet he frames the current drawdown as the kind of fear-laced inflection that historically precedes a trend resumption highe…
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Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, GBP/USD also traded with a slight upward bias, but there is one important difference between the technical picture of the pound and that of the euro. The British currency consolidated above a fairly strong descending trendline and also broke through the key level of 1.3413. This strongly suggests that the pound's decline has ended. Recall that over the past two weeks the market used almost any reason to sell sterling, but overall the fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains much weaker. We tend to view the recent moves as just another correction within the broader uptrend, which will resume sooner or later. On Mond…
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China has ordered its steelmakers and traders to suspend purchases of dollar-denominated seaborne iron ore from BHP (ASX: BHP) as annual price talks stall. The directive from China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), the state-run buyer created in 2020 to strengthen Beijing’s hand in global negotiations, blocks new contracts, even for cargoes already en route from Australia, Bloomberg News reported. Talks between BHP and CMRG have so far failed to produce an agreement, with the dispute believed to centre on discounts applied to BHP’s medium-grade ore. BHP, the world’s largest mining company, is China’s third-biggest iron ore supplier after Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) and Val…
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[XPD/USD] – [Wednesday, October 01, 2025] With the RSI Position in the Neutral-Bearish level, then there is potential for XPD/USD to decline today toward its nearest support levels. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1339.48 2. Resistance. 1 : 1306.17 3. Pivot : 1267.27 4. Support. 1 : 1233.96 5. Support. 2 : 1195.06 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 1267.27, Palladium is likely to go down to 1233.96. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1233.96 is breached and closes below, XPD/USD could continue weakening down to 1195.06. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is limited if XPD/USD suddenly strengthens up to th…
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At the end of the previous day, American stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.41%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.30%. The industrial Dow Jones climbed by 0.18%. Today, futures for American stock indices fell, as the deadline to prevent a government shutdown expired. This disrupted the operations of one of the country's largest employers and threatened to delay the publication of key economic data. This has created an atmosphere of uncertainty in financial markets, where investors are already worried about interest rate prospects and a slowdown in economic growth. A delay in the release of economic reports, such as the employment report, could make it mor…
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Regulations are crucial in crypto. Without supportive government frameworks, navigating the landscape becomes extraordinarily challenging. In 2025, with Donald Trump in the White House, the U.S. is leading the charge as far as regulatory clarity is concerned. So far, DeFi and tokenization projects have been leading the charge via the GENIUS Act, for example. However, DePin initiatives are starting to make equally compelling strides. This is a huge win, especially since crypto’s core promise is to boost efficiency and empower end users with greater control. Victories for projects that advance these goals are essential. According to Coingecko, DePin is a burgeoning crypto …
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Crypto analyst Trader Mayne is cautioning that Bitcoin may be setting up for a sharper drawdown before resuming its broader uptrend into year-end, arguing that a “$98,000 weekly liquidity level” sits uncollected below price and could be targeted early in October. Two Price Scenarios For Bitcoin In a video analysis posted on September 30 titled “Did Bitcoin Just Top? The Signal Everyone’s Ignoring…,”Mayne outlined a two-track playbook: a tactical long on a lower-timeframe liquidity sweep that could precede a deeper correction, and, if that setup fails, a decisive flush that takes out $98,000 before a fourth-quarter continuation higher. “TLDR — I think we are due for a l…
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1.20 per euro is the minimum projected exchange rate for EUR/USD by year-end. Most banks and economists agree with this forecast. The news background for the dollar in 2025 is not just poor—it keeps worsening. Just a couple of weeks ago, the market was still digesting Donald Trump's new import tariffs (covering all medicines, trucks, and furniture) and the FOMC rate cut, when a government shutdown had already begun in the U.S., while the labor market continued to cool. Currently, demand for the U.S. currency has not declined significantly, but I believe the market will factor these considerations in later. The Federal Reserve has not just carried out one round of monetary…
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GBP/USD Analysis, 5M On Thursday, GBP/USD also traded lower, although the British pound had absolutely no grounds for decline. One might assume that the euro pulled the pound down with it, but even the euro's fall raises questions—particularly since it started two hours after the weak unemployment report was published. The technical picture on the hourly timeframe remains unchanged. Despite Wednesday's and Thursday's declines, the new uptrend is still valid, though it remains very weak and uncertain as long as the Senkou Span B line is not broken. Friday may not provide clarity either and could create even more confusion. For starters, it is still unclear whether U.S.…
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The U.S. dollar has regained leadership – especially after it became clear that the much-anticipated key U.S. labor market statistics would not be released this week. Yesterday's statements from Federal Reserve representatives Logan and Goolsbee, noting that the U.S. economy is in good shape, also increased demand for the dollar. Traders interpreted these comments as a sign of a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts, making the U.S. currency more attractive for investment. Ahead, markets await data on the Eurozone Services PMI, Composite PMI, and the Producer Price Index. Weak numbers will only increase pressure on EUR/USD, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the…
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October 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic months in recent market history. Gold has smashed through record highs near $3,900 an ounce, yet U.S. stocks remain surprisingly resilient. Rebecca Teltscher, portfolio manager at New Haven Asset Management, tells MINING.com host Devan Murugan that investors are facing a confusing, almost contradictory market landscape. “Take Canada’s TSX versus the US — two markets telling completely different stories,” Teltscher noted. The TSX is driven by gold prices, which are at historic highs, with the gold sector up a staggering 109% year-to-date, in response to factors like increasing central bank demand, i…
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Today, the GBP/USD pair starts the week with a bearish gap amid broad U.S. dollar strength and is struggling to hold on to Friday's strong gains. Spot prices show no further upward momentum and remain below the 1.3500 level. Over the weekend, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader. Since Takaichi is known as a supporter of loose fiscal policy, this choice increases expectations that the Bank of Japan will postpone raising rates, which may trigger a significant sell-off of the Japanese yen. As a result, this supports the U.S. dollar's rise, which is a key pressure factor on the GBP/USD pair. However, the dollar's upward potential i…
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On Wednesday, October 8, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold its next monetary policy meeting — the second-to-last meeting of the year. The central bank is widely expected to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points. This base-case scenario has already been priced into the market, meaning the decision itself is unlikely to cause meaningful volatility in NZD/USD. Instead, attention will shift to the bank's guidance on future policy steps. Back in August, during its previous meeting, there were widespread rumours that the RBNZ might be ready to end its rate-cut cycle following an acceleration in inflation during the second quarter. Analysts were divide…
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