Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12304 tópicos neste fórum
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The U.S. dollar continued to decline actively against the euro, the pound, and other assets. Statements from Federal Reserve representatives advocating for interest rate cuts led to a dollar sell-off. Traders interpreted these signals as confirmation of a likely shift toward more accommodative monetary policy in the near future, which traditionally puts pressure on the American currency. The euro, the pound, and other assets gained support as rate cuts in the U.S. reduced the attractiveness of American assets. However, it is worth noting that long-term prospects remain uncertain. Economic growth in Europe and the United Kingdom still lags behind that of the United States,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure. The main reasons for its weakness include disappointing economic data and the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. since mid-last week. The decline of the ISM Services PMI to the critical 50-point level caused concern among market participants. However, the market appeared to anticipate such a slowdown, further reinforcing expectations of upcoming monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve. With the ISM index hovering near contraction territory, the trend of weakening economic growth is becoming clearer. That said, the market's reaction to the data was restrained, as investors are awaiting more precise signals from the Fed. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar slightly retreated in the second half of the previous day. The Federal Reserve appears to be leaning toward further interest rate cuts this year, but whether a rate cut will happen at the October meeting remains uncertain. Economic data continues to point to difficulties in growth across several sectors, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This creates pressure on the central bank to take action to stimulate the economy. Cutting interest rates is one of the Fed's most commonly used tools for that purpose. Lower rates make it easier for businesses and individuals to borrow, which should encourage higher spending and investment. On…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The dollar is once again under pressure due to the increased likelihood of interest rate cuts in the U.S. this month. The euro, pound, and Japanese yen strengthened their positions at the end of last week, but during the Asian session today, pressure on many trading instruments has returned. Moving forward, everything will depend on fresh fundamental data. In the first half of the day, data is expected on the manufacturing sector business activity index for Germany, France, the Eurozone, and the UK. Experts' expectations lean towards the indicators remaining at their previous, quite low levels, which will not provide a significant impetus for strengthening the euro. Howev…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US dollar has again strengthened against the euro, pound, and other risk assets – particularly against the Japanese yen. The weekly job growth in the private sector from ADP and strong data on job openings and labor turnover in the US from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have strengthened the US dollar. Traders interpreted this data as a sign of the ongoing strength of the US economy, which, in turn, raised expectations of a more cautious approach to monetary policy changes by the Federal Reserve. However, this is unlikely to impact today's decision by the central bank. For this reason, the dollar's strengthening has been modest. Today, the first half of the day will s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The dollar is facing challenges. Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, leading to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of several risk assets, including the Japanese yen. The Federal Reserve's decision was the result of prolonged debates about the state of the US economy. Proponents of the rate cut argued that the slowdown in labor market growth and global uncertainty necessitated the easing of monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Conversely, opponents were concerned that a rate cut could lead to rising inflation and financial instability. However, it should be noted that there …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The dollar continues to face issues. As statistics indicate, the number of initial jobless claims in the US has sharply increased, exceeding economists' forecasts, leading to another decline of the dollar against several risk assets. Although this news was not particularly new to the Federal Reserve or market participants, who are well aware of the challenges currently facing the US labor market, it has negatively impacted those betting on a short-term rise in the dollar. Economists link the increase in unemployment benefit claims to a slowdown in the American economy's growth rate, which, in turn, puts pressure on the Fed. Conversely, Europe is experiencing relative stab…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro and the British pound maintain their prospects for further gains against the US dollar. The Japanese yen appreciated significantly today, as traders believe the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week. Meanwhile, statements from Federal Reserve officials at the end of last week did not help the US dollar, so the chances of further growth in risk assets remain quite good. Traders are closely monitoring any signals that may indicate a change in the Fed's monetary policy, and in the absence of convincing arguments for maintaining a tight stance, the strengthening of risk assets may continue. Technical analysis also indicates potential for growth. The break…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro and the Japanese yen retain all chances for further growth against the US dollar, while the British pound faces diminishing buying pressure amid concerns about the potential for a dovish policy from the Bank of England. The euro and pound continued to rise against the dollar yesterday following remarks from Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller, who said the central bank is on the right track in stimulating the economy. Traders interpreted these words as a signal for a more accommodative monetary policy in the future, which weakened the dollar's position. The market also reacted positively to Eurozone economic data, which came in somewhat better than expected…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro and British pound rose sharply against the U.S. dollar; however, dollar buyers took advantage of attractive prices and quickly restored market equilibrium. Yesterday, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, clearly indicating that the current cycle of monetary policy easing has concluded. This step, as expected by most analysts, marked the end of a period in which the ECB actively stimulated the economy by lowering interest rates. Now that inflation is stabilizing and economic growth is showing signs of resilience, the ECB is shifting to a more conservative strategy. The Bank of England lowered interest rates to 3.75%, warning that further steps …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The dollar remained under pressure following the release of another series of weak fundamental data from the U.S. Weak figures from the ISM manufacturing index intensified pressure on the U.S. dollar in the second half of the day. The index, which reflects business activity in the manufacturing sector, unexpectedly declined, signaling a slowdown in industry growth. This, in turn, sparked concerns regarding the overall prospects of the American economy. Investors, worried about potential growth slowdowns, began to offload dollar assets, which directly impacted the currency's exchange rate. Dollar sales also increased amid expectations that the Federal Reserve might continu…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro and the British pound maintained their positions against the U.S. dollar, unlike the Japanese yen, which fell sharply. However, the dollar still faced pressure after disappointing data from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, but this did not lead to any drastic market changes. Participants likely decided to wait for more significant economic indicators. Clarity regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy remains crucial to restraining active trading. Today, there is no data from the Eurozone, so significant market movements are not expected in the first half of the day. However, this calm before the storm can be deceptive. Markets p…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Buyers of the euro and the pound have made their presence felt after yesterday's good corrections against the U.S. dollar, fueling expectations of continued bullishness in risk assets. Positive data on the increase in the Economic Optimism Index in the U.S. from RCM/TIPP led to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, but the market subsequently reversed. The initial surge, fueled by hopes of sustainable economic growth in the U.S., proved short-lived. Traders quickly reassessed the situation, focusing on the increased odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, which again weakened the dollar's position. Given that the short-term upward momentum of the dollar was swift…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar fell sharply against several risk assets yesterday for objective reasons. As indicated by the data, ADP employment in the U.S. decreased by 32,000 in November, while economists had expected an increase of 19,000. The report published by Automatic Data Processing raised serious concerns about the state of the labor market in the world's largest economy. Such a significant discrepancy with forecasts indicates potential difficulties in business activity and, consequently, a decline in demand for the U.S. dollar. However, it's worth noting that the report may be distorted due to the recent government shutdown in the U.S., so there is still a chance that things…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US dollar regained some positions against the euro and the British pound yesterday, though it fared poorly against the strengthening Japanese yen ahead of the central bank meeting. Following the news that jobless claims in the US fell to their lowest level in more than three years last week, the dollar gained some momentum. This positive report lifted trader optimism, suggesting resilience in the US labor market. However, the dollar's growth was limited by cautious rhetoric from White House representatives. Today, important economic reports are expected in the first half of the day, which could significantly impact the euro's exchange rate and the overall economic hea…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets; however, this did not prompt any significant technical changes in the market. The temporary strengthening of the dollar against the euro yesterday in the afternoon can hardly be linked to anything specific. The changes against the pound were even less noticeable. It is evident that the market is waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve on future monetary policy. Traders are also closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators in an attempt to predict how dovish the Fed will be in the near future. Today, in the first half of the day, data on Germany's trade balance is expected, along …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar continued to lose ground actively on Friday, and there was a certain reason for this. A sharp decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index led to a similar drop in the U.S. dollar against the euro. Traders interpreted this as a signal of a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth, which, in turn, reduced the dollar's appeal as a safe asset. This was especially evident in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, where the euro and the pound strengthened by breaking key resistance levels. Immediately after the data was released, discussions arose regarding further monetary measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The market believes that amid deteri…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro, pound, and other risk assets continue to show strength against the US dollar. Yesterday, amid a lack of key data, the euro continued to strengthen against the US dollar, reaching a weekly high. The pound also strengthened as many traders bet on the imminent conclusion of the shutdown in the US. However, despite the optimistic sentiment, some caution remains. Even after the shutdown ends, its consequences will be felt by the American economy for some time. Specifically, this concerns delays in the publication of important macroeconomic data, which will not be prepared in a single day and will take quite some time. Today, in the first half of the day, figures for …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro, the pound, and other risk assets received little support and were unable to sustain their gains against the US dollar. Yesterday, the US government resumed operations. Donald Trump signed the H.R. 5371 law, officially ending the record-long shutdown that was widely anticipated but had no effect. Firstly, the markets had long priced in the probability of the government resuming operations. Traders, having learned from the bitter experiences of past shutdowns, had already calculated possible scenarios and adapted to them. Secondly, the acute lack of fundamental indicators pertaining to the American economy remains the main reason why strong movements have not happ…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro, pound, and other risky assets continued to rise against the U.S. dollar. Confusion among the U.S. Federal Reserve, with significantly differing statements from policymakers, has put pressure on the dollar. Growing uncertainty about the monetary policy trajectory, combined with contradictory statements from members of the Open Market Committee, undermines traders' confidence in the stability of the U.S. currency. On one hand, there are increasing calls for further tight monetary policy to finally curb inflation, which, although slowing, remains above the target level of 2%. On the other hand, the camp advocating rate cuts is gaining strength, pointing to negative…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro has pulled back, while the pound continues to trade within a sideways channel against the U.S. dollar. Recent statements from Federal Reserve representatives on the complexity of the interest rate situation and the emphasis that much will depend on the data they receive in the near future have led to a slight weakening of the dollar's position. Traders who previously anticipated a more aggressive policy from the central bank are now revising their forecasts, putting pressure on the U.S. currency. The market reacts to every word and hint from Fed officials, as any change in rhetoric could signal a shift in monetary policy. Today, the only data expected in the firs…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro continued to lose ground against the dollar, while the pound remained trading within a sideways channel. Pressure on the Japanese yen significantly increased following news of a contraction in the Japanese economy in the third quarter of this year. Strong data on the growth of the Empire Manufacturing Index in the U.S. and statements from Federal Reserve representatives regarding cautious interest rate cuts helped the U.S. dollar strengthen against several risk assets yesterday. Traders continued to reassess their expectations for further U.S. rate cuts. In the short term, the dollar's dynamics will likely continue to depend on U.S. economic data and the Fed's rh…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro and pound have only slightly decreased against the dollar, but overall, trading has remained within sideways channels, from which the trading instruments have been unable to escape for a whole week. Positive data on U.S. industrial orders and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials supported the dollar. Positive macroeconomic indicators, particularly the increase in industrial orders, signal a recovery in the industrial sector and strengthening economic growth. This, in turn, reduces the necessity for aggressive interest rate cuts from the Fed, as reflected in recent comments from the central bank. The Fed's cautious rhetoric, emphasizing that future d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro, pound, and Japanese yen have all fallen against the dollar. On Wednesday, the U.S. released the minutes from the October FOMC meeting, where many Federal Reserve officials indicated that it would likely be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2025. This led to active dollar purchases and a weakening of various risk assets. However, this decision may be revisited depending on incoming economic data, particularly the November and December reports on inflation and employment. If inflation continues to decline along with the labor market, the Fed may reconsider lowering interest rates, which would weaken the dollar. Today, we will see the P…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The labor market disappointed the US dollar yesterday, which sharply declined against the euro and the British pound. As the data showed, the US unemployment rate rose again in September to 4.4%, significantly weakening the US dollar. The rise in unemployment is not just a statistic; it reflects the real difficulties faced by millions of American families. Layoffs, salary reductions, and loss of health insurance all exert tremendous pressure on consumer spending and, consequently, on economic growth. Now, the central bank faces a difficult dilemma: support the weakening economy by lowering interest rates or keep inflation under control by maintaining the current rates. Lo…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
