Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12304 tópicos neste fórum
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The euro and pound managed to hold their positions against the U.S. dollar, although pressure on them was quite strong at the end of last week. The decline in the U.S. manufacturing PMI index was offset by increasing activity in the services sector. This alleviated some concerns regarding the looming issues that have put pressure on the U.S. currency in recent weeks. Investors are closely monitoring indicators of economic resilience in the U.S. as the Federal Reserve prepares for its December meeting, where a decision on the future direction of monetary policy is expected. However, despite favorable data from the services sector, the overall picture remains uncertain. Whi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro and the pound held their ground against the U.S. dollar, though risk assets came under pressure towards the end of U.S. trading. The lack of U.S. data adversely affected the dollar's positions, providing slight support to the euro and the pound at the start of the North American session, but the pressure on the pairs soon returned. Traders were deprived of an important benchmark for assessing the state of the American economy, which created uncertainty and made them cautious. Typically, the publication of macroeconomic data, such as employment levels, inflation, and GDP figures, serves as a compass indicating market direction. In the absence of this data, market …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The dollar lost considerable ground against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets yesterday, and there were specific reasons for this. A sharp drop in the US consumer confidence index and retail sales volume weighed on the US dollar. Traders noted signs of slowing US economic growth, undermining confidence in the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy. Conversely, the European currency received support from German inflation data. As for the pound, it surged against the dollar. Additional support for the GBP/USD pair came from news that the UK will increase the minimum wage by 4.1%. Traders viewed this as a sign of growing inflationary pressure in the future. Ho…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The dollar continued to lose ground yesterday—especially against the British pound—and there were sufficient reasons for it. Despite a brief impulse in the dollar after the release of data on a decline in U.S. initial jobless claims, the overall trend remains negative for the American currency. This small positivity was insufficient to compensate for the prevailing market expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. The market continues to assess the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts as high, which puts substantial pressure on the dollar. The publication of the UK budget was favorable for buyers of the British pound. Given the measures taken to clo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Sellers of the dollar paused yesterday in the absence of new guidelines. Today, in the first half of the day, a considerable amount of important German data is expected, which could lead to a surge in volatility. The figures for changes in retail trade volume, the number of unemployed, the unemployment rate, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be released. These indicators will be key in assessing the state of the German economy and will determine short-term market sentiment. Retail trade figures are expected to provide insights into consumer activity, while unemployment data will shed light on the current employment situation. Inflation, as indicated by t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US dollar has once again strengthened its position against the euro, pound, Japanese yen, and other risk assets. Cautious statements from Federal Reserve representatives on the open question of interest rates in December have led to increased purchases of the US dollar. Traders who previously anticipated a near-guarantee of a cut are now forced to reassess their forecasts, putting additional pressure on risk assets. This situation is compounded by economic data, particularly with their near-total absence. In these conditions, the US dollar acts as a safe haven that traders flock to during periods of uncertainty. The strengthening of the American currency further press…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US dollar experienced slight pressure after the data; however, this did not lead to significant changes in the positioning of pairs with risk assets. Weak data from the US ISM manufacturing index pressured the dollar yesterday. The index remained below 50 points, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity and raising concerns about the US economy's prospects. Traders perceived this as a signal of a potential slowdown in economic growth, which further pressured the dollar. Many fear that deteriorating conditions in the manufacturing sector could negatively impact overall economic growth. Today, in the first half of the day, there will be a speech by European Ce…
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The U.S. dollar continued its rise against risk assets, especially against the British pound, which has been facing difficulties lately. The influence of verbal interventions from the U.S. Federal Reserve on financial markets remains significant, as does the political statements made yesterday by the Prime Minister of the UK regarding taxes. Recent statements by regulatory officials about maintaining flexibility in interest rate cuts, particularly their emphasis on decision-making at the December meeting, have triggered a wave of U.S. dollar strengthening. This effect is explained by the market's tendency to interpret such rhetoric as a signal of a more conservative monet…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Despite favorable conditions for growth, the U.S. dollar remains unnoticed by market participants. A fairly positive ADP report regarding the U.S. labor market only slightly helped the dollar strengthen its position yesterday. Traders seemed to prefer waiting for more official employment data from the Labor Department; however, it will take a while before the next report is released, likely due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Strong labor market indicators could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish policy, as mentioned last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Today, several reports are expected in the first half of the day, including changes in industr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The American dollar, despite statements from Federal Reserve representatives, ceded some positions against the euro and the British pound but maintained a bullish momentum against the Japanese yen. Statements from Fed officials about the need for caution in interest rate cuts no longer have a significant effect on the dollar. Traders have adapted to the central bank's rhetoric and have stopped interpreting it as a definitive signal for strengthening the American currency. Instead, the focus has shifted to macroeconomic data, which has been lacking recently regarding the U.S. Today, we await data on the trade balance for Germany and France, as well as a speech from the Pre…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar continues to face challenges, but weak economic data from the eurozone and the United Kingdom are also limiting the upward potential of risk assets. Yesterday, a sharp drop in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September led to dollar weakness and supported the euro. The index came in significantly below analyst expectations, which were more optimistic. This unexpected decline raised fresh concerns about the economic outlook for the United States and, as a result, put pressure on the U.S. dollar. The euro, in contrast, showed resilience and strengthened against the greenback. Today is expected to be a busy day with numerous macroeconomic events that co…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
American Dollar Strengthens Against All Currencies The reason was the latest statements from U.S. Federal Reserve representatives, who indicated that, given the current government shutdown, further reductions in interest rates would be inappropriate. Against the backdrop of budgetary turmoil in Washington, where uncertainty about the future of fiscal policy continues to grow, such rhetoric from the U.S. central bank came as unexpected and, essentially, counterproductive under current circumstances. Traders who had expected a more flexible stance from the Fed reacted by selling euros and moving into dollar-denominated assets they considered more reliable. However, the long…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar sharply weakened against all major currencies—and with good reason. Economists are sounding the alarm: Trump's announcement of potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods immediately sent ripples through the currency market. The dollar experienced a sharp drop, which is bound to have significant implications for the global economy. Traders, concerned about the unpredictable consequences of a renewed trade war, rushed to shift assets into more stable currencies and gold. The statements also demonstrate once again that Trump has not softened his stance on tariffs and continues to argue that the U.S. is losing money to China. In response, Chinese authorities have…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar collapsed against the euro, pound, and other assets following yesterday's interview with Jerome Powell. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, indicated that the U.S. central bank intends to lower the key interest rate by another 25 basis points, likely as early as the end of October. This statement served as a trigger for widespread dollar selling across global markets, as investors adjusted their expectations for future monetary policy easing. Powell noted that the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, but risks related to slowing employment growth and ongoing trade tensions require caution and may justify further policy accommodation. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against a range of risk-sensitive assets, and this comes as no surprise. Yesterday, Federal Reserve officials once again delivered coordinated messages, preparing the market for upcoming interest rate cuts. It's clear that lowering rates would be a logical step in response to slowing global growth and persistent uncertainty surrounding international trade relations among major powers. The Fed's goal is to stimulate investment, boost consumer demand, and support the U.S. labor market. Further growth of the euro remains in question as markets await eurozone inflation data. Economists expect a modest increase in consumer prices. If in…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar has once again come under pressure, this time due to another round of weak fundamental data, which triggered a rally in risk assets — including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. The sharp drop in U.S. private-sector employment, as reported by ADP (down 32,000), led to an active sell-off of the dollar and strengthened the euro, pound, and yen. However, this disappointing labor market data was partially offset by a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI, which limited the dollar's downside momentum. These conflicting signals created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market. On one hand, job losses highlight potential vulnerabilities in the U…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on October 20 The U.S. dollar regained part of its position against risk assets, but so far this appears to be no more than profit-taking following a strong rally. Given the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, particular attention will focus on the first half of the day. Data on Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) and the European Central Bank's current account balance are expected. Later, the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, is scheduled to speak. Economists closely monitor Germany's PPI, as it is a key indicator of inflationary pressure in the eurozone. A rise in producer prices often precedes a rise in consumer prices,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar continues to recover the losses sustained last week after dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials and a worsening of U.S.-China trade tensions. On the other hand, the euro faced pressure on Monday following the release of weak German Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Although a decline in producer inflation could theoretically support economic growth, the market instead interpreted it as a sign of slowing business activity in Europe's largest economy. This prompted a risk-off reaction, leading to U.S. dollar strengthening and euro depreciation. The absence of significant economic data from the United States further weakened the euro's position and …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The American dollar continues to strengthen its position—this is especially evident in pairs with the euro and the Japanese yen. President Trump's somewhat mixed stance on resolving trade relations with China continues to push away buyers of risk assets. The uncertainty surrounding the prospects of concluding a trade agreement exerts a restraining influence on investor sentiment, leading many to adopt a wait-and-see position until the situation becomes clearer. In this context, volatility in the foreign exchange market is not as high as it was previously. Traders will continue to respond sensitively to any new information regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations. This morn…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar sharply weakened against the euro and British pound but managed to hold its ground versus the Japanese yen. Yesterday's remarks from Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller — who stated he would support a more dovish monetary policy — put significant pressure on the dollar. Traders are concerned that Waller's potential appointment as the new head of the Federal Reserve could signal a long-term policy shift toward lower interest rates. Today's key release will be the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for October. Though this indicator is unlikely to be a major driver for the euro in the immediate term, it remains a critical component in assessing the o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. Dollar Rose Against the Pound and Yen, but Lost Ground Against the Euro Dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials about further interest rate cuts put pressure on the dollar, though not across all currencies. Yesterday, discussions suggested that the Fed may conclude its balance sheet reduction program—also known as quantitative tightening—as early as next Wednesday, further weakening the U.S. dollar. Today is packed with statistical data, and in the first half of the day, attention will be on the Eurozone's manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs for October. These indicators serve as a barometer of the region's economic health, providing insights int…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar declined sharply against the euro, while the pound and Japanese yen fared worse, as pressure on risk appetite remained and the dollar did not lose much value there. As the report indicated, U.S. inflation came in below economists' forecasts, leading to a weakening of the dollar's position, but this effect was not uniform across all currencies. The Consumer Price Index in the United States, a key inflation indicator, increased by only 0.3% last month, while a growth of 0.4% was expected, prompting markets to revise their expectations regarding the future policy of the Federal Reserve. This news triggered an immediate response in the currency markets. The do…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar continued to lose ground against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and other risk assets. The lack of U.S. statistics affected the U.S. dollar, and the upcoming FOMC meeting intensified the reluctance to open new long positions. In recent weeks, traders have shown noticeable caution regarding the dollar, awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy. The uncertainty surrounding inflation rates and economic growth prospects in the U.S. creates a basis for a more accommodative policy, which is impacting the U.S. dollar. The Euro, conversely, demonstrates relative resilience despite ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar has risen sharply against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and other risk assets, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is set to lower interest rates today. Data showed that the consumer confidence index in the U.S. exceeded economists' forecasts, as did the Richmond manufacturing index, prompting a sharp rise in the dollar in the absence of significant fundamental data. The impact of the shutdown on economic data remains significant. The lack of regular statistics makes it difficult to assess the current state of the economy and increases volatility in the markets. Because of this, traders are forced to rely on disparate indicators, which ampli…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar has regained leadership – especially after it became clear that the much-anticipated key U.S. labor market statistics would not be released this week. Yesterday's statements from Federal Reserve representatives Logan and Goolsbee, noting that the U.S. economy is in good shape, also increased demand for the dollar. Traders interpreted these comments as a sign of a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts, making the U.S. currency more attractive for investment. Ahead, markets await data on the Eurozone Services PMI, Composite PMI, and the Producer Price Index. Weak numbers will only increase pressure on EUR/USD, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
