Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The Ethereum network was built to democratize a finance platform where anyone, anywhere, could deploy code and create value. With no centralized oversight, ETH has become a stage where builders and grifters coexist, each leveraging the same tools of decentralization to vastly different ends. Can Ethereum Evolve Beyond Its Culture Of Exploitation? Ethereum has always been more than just a cryptocurrency. It’s a programmable, open finance framework that allows anyone to build and exploit ETH. According to AdrianoFeria’s post on X, this openness has enabled innovation and also allowed countless grifters to accumulate vast amounts of ETH by selling low-quality tokens and NF…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)On Tuesday, the market, from the 1.3400 level (yesterday's daily candle close), may continue moving downward toward 1.3332 – the lower fractal (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may possibly start moving upward toward 1.3363 – the 61.8% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Volume – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: Downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.3400 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may start moving downward toward …
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Crypto analyst Captain Faibik has predicted that the Bitcoin price could crash to as low as $50,000, representing a 60% crash for the flagship crypto. The analyst explained why he has turned bearish on BTC, while declaring that the bull run is over. Why The Bitcoin Price Could Crash To $50,000 In an X post, Captain Faibik shared an accompanying chart which showed that the Bitcoin price could crash to $50,000 from its current level. This came as the analyst stated that he is turning bearish on BTC for the mid-term. He further remarked that the bull run is over and that now late buyers are getting trapped. Captain Faibik went on to note that the Bitcoin price is still …
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Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, marking a four-year high. While 15,000 new jobs were created, 34,000 jobs were lost during the same period. The Australian dollar and government bond yields both declined as markets began pricing in a higher probability of another interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA held its key rate steady at 3.6% in October and did not indicate a potential cut at the next meeting. However, the latest labor market data suggests a case for easing is building. With third-quarter inflation data due next week, it is clearly too early for a final policy call—but the case for a rate cut has clearly st…
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After two decades of markets exalting belief over balance sheets, the pendulum is swinging back toward the ground, underground, in fact. Until now, we’ve lived in an era where belief and vision routinely outperform reality. It was the triumph of ideology. Markets rewarded charisma over cash flow, tokens over tonnage, software over substance. Crypto, SPACs, Web3, WeWork – each iteration more untethered than the last. But as an invisible hand, the gravitational pull of the real world is providing unavoidable headwinds. From belief systems to balance sheets Ideology is not the enemy. It’s necessary. Every major technological or political movement begins with belie…
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The USD/CAD pair has been actively declining over the past few days. The decline was triggered by Tuesday's inflation report from Canada, which showed all components within the "green zone." This allowed USD/CAD sellers to go on the offensive. Over the previous four weeks, the pair had been steadily rising, climbing from 1.3720 to 1.4080 (a six-month high). Following the inflation release, it fell back into the 1.39 zone. Still, bears failed to overcome the 1.3970 support level, which aligns with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily timeframe. This suggests that the broader upward trend remains intact — despite accelerating inflation in Canada. …
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The U.S. stock market and the U.S. dollar regained confidence after President Donald Trump announced that he was aiming for a quick victory at an important meeting next Thursday with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping — even if the outcome falls short of a comprehensive agreement. Ahead of the meeting, the U.S. president said he wants to extend the pause on tariff increases on Chinese goods in exchange for Xi resuming purchases of American soybeans, taking measures against fentanyl, and lifting restrictions on rare earth metal exports — while maintaining certain trade barriers that he considers necessary. "I think we'll make a deal on everything," Trump told reporters. …
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Key takeaways Japan 225 CFD Index rally: The Japan 225 CFD Index (Nikkei 225 proxy) reached an all-time high of 49,970 on optimism over PM Takaichi’s more than ¥13.9 trillion expansionary stimulus plan.Market pullback: The index declined 3.4% from its peak, suggesting investors had already priced in expectations of aggressive fiscal measures.Earnings momentum: Forward 12-month EPS growth for Nikkei 225 stocks rose to 9.3% in October from 7% in September, signaling an improving corporate outlook.Foreign inflows strengthen: Net foreign purchases of Japanese equities surged sharply, reinforcing continued medium-term bullish momentum for Japan’s equity market. This is a…
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Overview: The US dollar is trading higher against all the G10 currencies today, but it has not broken out of this week's ranges. The Dollar Index is rising for the fourth session this week and has recovered last week's 0.55% decline. The greenback is more mixed against emerging market currencies. While the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is up about 0.15% this week, the MSCI gauge is off by about 0.10%. Equities are mostly firmer today. In the Asia Pacific region, the Nikkei and China's CSI 300 gained more than 1%, but South Korea's Kospi jumped 2.5% and led the region higher this week with a 5.1% gain. President Lee will meet President Trump on October 29 and …
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Canada has fined Cryptomus an eye-watering $126 million for breaking the country’s anti-money laundering rules. Cryptomus, officially registered as Xeltox Enterprises Ltd and based in Vancouver, reportedly failed to report thousands of suspicious transactions, including ones potentially linked to serious crimes such as child exploitation, ransomware, and sanctions evasion. In July 2024 alone, Cryptomus chose not to report over 1,000 instances of suspicious activity and more than 1,500 reports on large crypto transactions. Canada’s financial watchdog, Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC), announced the penalty on 22 October 2025 and said…
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Monday Trade Review: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair also traded upward, albeit with minimal volatility. The mere fact that the British pound is rising is already positive, as in recent weeks the market has completely ignored macroeconomic and fundamental factors that, in fact, suggested the pair's growth. We previously mentioned that the key issue is the flatness on the daily timeframe, which causes weak, illogical movements on lower timeframes. However, the flat will not last forever, so one must be prepared for a new, powerful movement. Given the current conditions, such a movement can only be expected in one direction – north. There were…
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October 29 is an important day for the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada will hold its next meeting. Most analysts believe the result of the October meeting will be a 25-basis-point interest rate cut due to the slowdown in the Canadian economy. However, some experts do not rule out the possibility that the central bank will adopt a wait-and-see position or implement a "hawkish cut." This scenario is not out of the question, given the inflation growth data published last week in Canada. To remind, the overall consumer price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month in September. Despite pessimistic forecasts, the index emerged from negative territory (down 0.1% in August), re…
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The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward wave pattern, but over the past few weeks, it has become complex and ambiguous. The pound has fallen too sharply, making the trend segment that began on August 1 appear uncertain. The first thought that comes to mind is a complication of the presumed wave 4, which may take on a three-wave form, with each sub-wave containing its own three smaller waves. In this case, a decline of the pair toward the 1.31 and 1.30 levels can be expected. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 appears to be five-wave, though it could theoretically become much longer and more complex. Personally, I c…
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Grayscale Investments kicked off trading of a new Solana-focused ETF on Wednesday, adding a staking feature that passes network rewards to investors. The fund, now listed on NYSE Arca as the Grayscale Solana Trust ETF (GSOL), was converted from a closed-end vehicle that first launched in 2021. From Closed-End Trust To ETF According to Grayscale, the move makes the firm one of the largest Solana exchange-traded product managers in the US by assets under management. The converted ETF lets ordinary brokerage accounts hold SOL exposure while receiving staking rewards tied to the network. Inkoo Kang, Grayscale’s Senior Vice President of ETFs, said the launch shows the fir…
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Yesterday, US stock indices ended lower. The S&P 500 decreased by 0.99%, the Nasdaq 100 fell by 1.57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.93%. During today's trading, futures for US stock indices rose following strong earnings reports from Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc., lifting market sentiment after yesterday's correction. Investors appear to have brushed aside concerns about inflation and the Fed's hawkish policy, focusing instead on the robust performance of major tech companies. Both Amazon and Apple's earnings exceeded expectations, demonstrating resilience in consumer demand and operational efficiency amid a challenging macroeconomic environmen…
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Overview: After extending this week's rally yesterday, the US dollar is consolidating yesterday's gains in what appears to be favorable price action. The pullback from greenback's best level has been shallow. The US struck several trade deals this week, and secured a trade truce with China, even if many are skeptical of its longevity, and the Federal Reserve pushed against a December cut, and the futures market has reduced the odds to about 2/3 from near certainty. Emerging market currencies are mixed, but this week's highlights include the PBOC setting the dollar's fix at a new low since October on Wednesday before steadying it in the last two sessions and the (3.6%) rec…
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A stronger US dollar, weaker cryptocurrencies, fundamental overvaluation, and excessive attention to technology giants have made the S&P 500 vulnerable to corrections. When the broad stock index sets 36 record highs in 2025, trading above the 50-day moving average since April, and has not declined by 3% or more, caution is warranted. A pullback could occur at any moment, even without visible reasons. Over the past ten days, the S&P 500 has risen by 1.7%, and shares of the Magnificent Seven have increased by 5.2%. In the third quarter, the profits of its constituents are expected to grow by 27%, double the forecasts of Wall Street analysts. It is not surprising th…
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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Ministry of Finance have been expressing deepening concern over the Yen's trajectory, a move exaggerated by broad US Dollar strength fueled by the Fed's own hawkish repricing. A recent meeting between the fiscally dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has seemingly failed to calm the squeeze in this most volatile of FX pairs. The pair is up over 3% since the start of November trading, recently testing the 158.00 level in a relentless race higher. Participants are now actively pricing in potential BoJ intervention; however, historical action suggests these moves are often faded by the market, rendering them ineff…
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Relatively important data may play a role. This is how the dollar's prospects look for next week. There will be a few U.S. reports, but there are still no alternatives. In America, I can highlight the Producer Price Index, retail sales, and durable goods orders as interesting reports. There is also a whole list of reports that were supposed to be released, but it seems the Bureau of Statistics will not provide them. I remind you that the U.S. Bureau of Statistics only resumed its work last week and is currently busy filling in the gaps for October and November. To be more precise, it hasn't even reached November yet, and the October reports for September are already of li…
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Crypto markets are confronting a fast-moving repricing of US monetary policy expectations, and macro trader Alex Krüger argues that even after last week’s sharp dovish turn, futures curves still fail to discount what a Trump-aligned Federal Reserve leadership could look like. Fed Cut Mispricing Sets Up Crypto Repricing Event In a post on X, Krüger shared a CME-derived table of implied policy rates for late-stage 2026 and framed it as the market’s baseline for the post-Powell transition. The table shows an expected fed funds rate of 3.47% for the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting (347 bps), drifting to 3.29% for June 17, 2026 (329 bps), to 3.10% for September 16, 2026 (310 bps)…
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Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational pu…
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The imagery from the Modi-Xi Alliance in Tianjin clearly showed a BRICS revolution. China, Russia, and India, led by Modi, Putin, and Xi Jinping, positioned themselves as a counterweight to US dominance. It’s hilarious seeing so many countries opt to talk to Xi and risk getting ripped off by a relatively new superpower, as a preferable option to facing Donald Trump’s tariffs and capricious, borderline, manic behavior. Even Norway doesn’t want to deal with Trump. Norway! A neutral sovereign rich haven. “Optics is a key part of this summit, and the White House should grasp that its policies will result in other countries looking for alternatives,” said Manoj Kewalramani …
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Dogecoin could see its first meaningful turn higher around September 13, according to crypto analyst VisionPulsed, who argues the current drawdown fits a post-halving template in which markets remain weak until roughly 510–511 days after Bitcoin’s supply cut before staging a final run. In a video published on September 1, he told viewers, “I would argue starting around September 13th, the selling may subside… 511 days post halving last cycle, we were already going back up. 511 days post halving the cycle before that we were already going back up.” Dogecoin Pain May End September 13 The analyst frames the present weakness as part of a longer, slower cycle characterized by…
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EUR/USD Brief analysis:The 4-hour chart of the common European currency major shows that since February this year, the trend has been driven by an upward wave. The unfinished segment of the main trend started on July 31. Over the past two weeks, a counter correction has formed, in the shape of a contracting flat. The price is moving along the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone. Weekly forecast:In the coming days, the euro is likely to maintain a sideways bias with an overall upward vector. A stop, reversal, and subsequent decline should be expected near the resistance zone. The support level marks the lower boundary of the expected weekly range. Potenti…
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A serious security scare has hit the open-source software world, and it’s got big implications for crypto. Ledger’s chief technology officer has raised the alarm after discovering that several popular JavaScript packages on NPM were quietly compromised. The hack affects libraries used in millions of apps and websites and could redirect crypto funds during a transaction without the user ever noticing. Code Injected to Secretly Hijack Wallet Transfers The malicious code works by slipping into the background and waiting for a transaction to happen. When a user tries to send crypto, the malware silently swaps out the destination wallet address. On the surface, everything sti…
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