Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12210 tópicos neste fórum
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A stronger US dollar, weaker cryptocurrencies, fundamental overvaluation, and excessive attention to technology giants have made the S&P 500 vulnerable to corrections. When the broad stock index sets 36 record highs in 2025, trading above the 50-day moving average since April, and has not declined by 3% or more, caution is warranted. A pullback could occur at any moment, even without visible reasons. Over the past ten days, the S&P 500 has risen by 1.7%, and shares of the Magnificent Seven have increased by 5.2%. In the third quarter, the profits of its constituents are expected to grow by 27%, double the forecasts of Wall Street analysts. It is not surprising th…
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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Ministry of Finance have been expressing deepening concern over the Yen's trajectory, a move exaggerated by broad US Dollar strength fueled by the Fed's own hawkish repricing. A recent meeting between the fiscally dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has seemingly failed to calm the squeeze in this most volatile of FX pairs. The pair is up over 3% since the start of November trading, recently testing the 158.00 level in a relentless race higher. Participants are now actively pricing in potential BoJ intervention; however, historical action suggests these moves are often faded by the market, rendering them ineff…
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Relatively important data may play a role. This is how the dollar's prospects look for next week. There will be a few U.S. reports, but there are still no alternatives. In America, I can highlight the Producer Price Index, retail sales, and durable goods orders as interesting reports. There is also a whole list of reports that were supposed to be released, but it seems the Bureau of Statistics will not provide them. I remind you that the U.S. Bureau of Statistics only resumed its work last week and is currently busy filling in the gaps for October and November. To be more precise, it hasn't even reached November yet, and the October reports for September are already of li…
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Crypto markets are confronting a fast-moving repricing of US monetary policy expectations, and macro trader Alex Krüger argues that even after last week’s sharp dovish turn, futures curves still fail to discount what a Trump-aligned Federal Reserve leadership could look like. Fed Cut Mispricing Sets Up Crypto Repricing Event In a post on X, Krüger shared a CME-derived table of implied policy rates for late-stage 2026 and framed it as the market’s baseline for the post-Powell transition. The table shows an expected fed funds rate of 3.47% for the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting (347 bps), drifting to 3.29% for June 17, 2026 (329 bps), to 3.10% for September 16, 2026 (310 bps)…
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The imagery from the Modi-Xi Alliance in Tianjin clearly showed a BRICS revolution. China, Russia, and India, led by Modi, Putin, and Xi Jinping, positioned themselves as a counterweight to US dominance. It’s hilarious seeing so many countries opt to talk to Xi and risk getting ripped off by a relatively new superpower, as a preferable option to facing Donald Trump’s tariffs and capricious, borderline, manic behavior. Even Norway doesn’t want to deal with Trump. Norway! A neutral sovereign rich haven. “Optics is a key part of this summit, and the White House should grasp that its policies will result in other countries looking for alternatives,” said Manoj Kewalramani …
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Dogecoin could see its first meaningful turn higher around September 13, according to crypto analyst VisionPulsed, who argues the current drawdown fits a post-halving template in which markets remain weak until roughly 510–511 days after Bitcoin’s supply cut before staging a final run. In a video published on September 1, he told viewers, “I would argue starting around September 13th, the selling may subside… 511 days post halving last cycle, we were already going back up. 511 days post halving the cycle before that we were already going back up.” Dogecoin Pain May End September 13 The analyst frames the present weakness as part of a longer, slower cycle characterized by…
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EUR/USD Brief analysis:The 4-hour chart of the common European currency major shows that since February this year, the trend has been driven by an upward wave. The unfinished segment of the main trend started on July 31. Over the past two weeks, a counter correction has formed, in the shape of a contracting flat. The price is moving along the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone. Weekly forecast:In the coming days, the euro is likely to maintain a sideways bias with an overall upward vector. A stop, reversal, and subsequent decline should be expected near the resistance zone. The support level marks the lower boundary of the expected weekly range. Potenti…
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A serious security scare has hit the open-source software world, and it’s got big implications for crypto. Ledger’s chief technology officer has raised the alarm after discovering that several popular JavaScript packages on NPM were quietly compromised. The hack affects libraries used in millions of apps and websites and could redirect crypto funds during a transaction without the user ever noticing. Code Injected to Secretly Hijack Wallet Transfers The malicious code works by slipping into the background and waiting for a transaction to happen. When a user tries to send crypto, the malware silently swaps out the destination wallet address. On the surface, everything sti…
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Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities, and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational p…
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German officials thought they had wrapped up one of the biggest crypto cases in the country’s history when they seized and sold nearly 50,000 Bitcoin tied to the piracy platform Movie2K. But a new investigation is raising eyebrows. It turns out there might be another massive stash that was completely overlooked. There Might Be More Where That Came From In early 2024, German police took control of Bitcoin surrendered by Movie2K’s operators. Those coins were auctioned off for nearly $3 billion. At the time, it seemed like a done deal. Now, with Bitcoin’s price way up, those coins would be worth far more. And according to blockchain firm Arkham, that original stash might no…
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After retesting the range lows, Bitcoin (BTC) has closed the week above a key area, momentarily preventing a breakdown to lower levels. Some market watchers suggested that reclaiming the local range highs this week will set the stage for another leg up, but an analyst warned of potential volatility in the coming days. Bitcoin Holds Crucial Weekly Support As the market moves sideways, Bitcoin has continued to trade within its local range between the $108,250-$111,140 levels since the start of the month. The cryptocurrency has shown mixed signals since the second half of August, failing to hold the crucial $109,000 level during the previous week. Analyst Rekt Capital ass…
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What’s the safest way to store millions in gold? Executive summary: The safest way to store gold at the seven- or eight-figure level is a layered plan that blends professional vaulting with rigorous documentation, audits, and insurance. Most owners combine fully allocated, segregated vault storage with a smaller portion held closer to home for liquidity. Your final design should be cost-efficient, auditable, and resilient to theft, fraud, and operational mistakes. What “safe” actually means when you hold millions in gold “Safe” is not one thing. It’s a stack of safeguards that reduce distinct risks. With large positions, you should measure storage decisions against five…
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[USDX] – [Monday, 15 September 2025] Today, USDX has a potential to weaken due to a Death Cross between the EMA(50) and EMA(200), and the RSI being in the Neutral-Bearish area. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 98.00 2. Resistance. 1 : 97.79 3. Pivot : 97.63 4. Support. 1 : 97.42 5. Support. 2 : 97.26 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 97.42, there is potential for continued weakening towards 97.26. Momentum Extension Bias: If 97.26 is broken and closed below, the next level to be tested could be 97.05. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is restrained if #USDX strengthens, breaks, and closes above 98.00…
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France crypto industry is once again in the spotlight, as Reuters revealed that France is again positioning itself at the center of Europe’s crypto debate, signalling it may move to block companies licensed in other EU jurisdictions from operating domestically. The regulatory warning, delivered Monday by Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) chair Marie-Anne Barbat-Layani, underscores the deep fractures already emerging under the European Union’s landmark Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). MiCA, which formally took effect for service providers in December 2024, was billed as the world’s first comprehensive digital asset rulebook. The framework allows crypto fi…
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EUR/USD Brief analysis: The direction of price movement for the euro since the end of July this year has been defined by an upward wave. The wave level corresponds to the daily timeframe. At the end of August, quotes reached the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone. In recent weeks, the price has been in correction. Weekly forecast: In the first days of the coming week, the most likely scenario is sideways movement of the euro along resistance boundaries. Toward the weekend, volatility may increase, with a potential reversal and the beginning of a decline toward support levels. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 1.1760/1.1810Support: 1.1600/1.1550Recomm…
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EUR/NZD The EUR/NZD pair abandoned its downward scenario, reversing from support at the MACD line. A consolidation above 1.9778 would coincide with the Marlin oscillator shifting into positive territory, making bullish momentum the primary scenario. The main growth target lies at the embedded price channel line, around 2.0300. In this case, the 2.0029 level (the August 20 high) becomes the interim target. On the four-hour chart, the price has broken above both indicator lines, with Marlin firmly in positive territory. The pair is preparing for a breakout above resistance at 1.9778. Today, industrial production data for the euro area will be released for July. The foreca…
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US equity indices closed higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% and the Nasdaq 100 adding 0.44%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.11%. Indices continued to notch record highs, while gold rose to a new peak as investors maintained bets that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy this week. The committee's two-day meeting begins today, with a rate decision to follow. Market sentiment is fueled by expectations that the Fed—faced with slowing economic growth and persistent inflation—may reconsider its policy stance. Some analysts are even suggesting the possibility of a more aggressive rate cut in the near future, which would be a strong catalyst f…
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The US dollar continued to lose ground actively—a development that's easy to explain. There is growing talk in the market that the Fed will be forced to act more dovish, especially after the latest fundamental data from the US, which hardly gives dollar bulls any confidence. Yesterday, strong data from Germany's ZEW institute, which indicated improving economic sentiment in the eurozone, led to a stronger euro. Investors saw this as a signal of potential regional economic stabilization, increasing interest in the European currency. However, the key factor influencing the FX market in the second half of the day was a shift in expectations around future Federal Reserve poli…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair on Wednesday showed movements similar to those of the EUR/USD pair. In the morning, the U.K. released an important inflation report, but its significance turned out to be as "bland" as other reports this week. Traders barely noticed it. Inflation in the U.K. remained at 3.8%, which will not affect today's Bank of England decision in any way. The British central bank will, without question, keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, and the main intrigue lies in how the votes of Monetary Policy Committee members will be distributed in the rate decision. Even if the BoE meeting turns out more "dovish" than expe…
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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctu…
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The euro has continued to rally against the greenback from the 1 August 2025 low of 1.1392 and broke above its recent 52-week high of 1.1830 printed on 1 July 2025, within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since 13 January 2025 The EUR/USD hit a 4-year high of 1.1919 on Wednesday, 17 September, at the onset of the FOMC announcement of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut to bring down the Fed funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, and the release of the latest summary of economic projections (dot plot) that indicates two more projected interest rate cuts of 25 bps each before 2025 ends. Post FOMC sell-off due to a less “dovish” Fed Chair Powell’s press conference Thereaf…
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The GBP/USD currency pair also easily and calmly returned to its original positions on Thursday, only to continue its decline. As we mentioned in previous articles, it is wise to reserve judgment for now and not rush to conclusions or entirely rethink the technical picture. The dollar may show some growth, but under current conditions, any rise in the dollar is likely to be only corrective. The Fed's monetary policy stance nearly perfectly matched traders' expectations, so in essence, there was no fundamental reason to sell or buy. Jerome Powell took the same stance he always does: Fed decisions will depend entirely on macroeconomic data, and any rate decisions will be ma…
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The Bank of England held its meeting yesterday, almost exactly in line with expectations, except for the voting: the forecast was 8-1 for holding the rate, but it turned out to be 7-2. Now, expectations for a rate cut have shifted to November. Meanwhile, the realization is spreading through the media and markets that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates twice by year-end, so the BoE is set to retain its leadership in the easing cycle. On the daily chart, the price is preparing to break through support at 1.3525, which coincides with the MACD line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is not only about to move into bearish territory, but also looks poised to fall below th…
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Dogecoin is pressing a make-or-break weekly level as price retests the mid-$0.27s “springboard” highlighted by popular trader Rekt Capital, while macro cross-currents and a pivotal USDT dominance structure flagged by analyst Kevin may decide whether momentum extends into Q4. Dogecoin Bulls Face Crucial Test On the weekly DOGE/USDT chart shared by Rekt Capital, price has rallied back into the $0.27–$0.28 area and is attempting to flip it into support. At the time of the screenshot, the active weekly candle sat near $0.28410 with 3 days and 6 hours left, directly atop a green horizontal level plotted at $0.27884. Above, the next clearly marked resistance is the prior ran…
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The Japanese yen climbed 0.50% earlier against the US dollar but was unable to consolidate these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.92, down 0.04% on the day. Bank of Japan delivers hawkish holdThe Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.50% at today's meeting. The non-move was widely expected by the markets. What was a surprise was the split vote, as two of the nine members voted in favor of a rate hike, indicating some support for a more hawkish montary policy. Governor Ueda has been cautious and has the markets guessing as to when the BoJ will raise rates. The markets have priced in a 59% chance of a rate hike before the end of the ye…
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