Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11845 tópicos neste fórum
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Bitcoin is again trading under the shadow of a potential yen carry-trade shock as markets head into the 9–10 December FOMC meeting and a likely hawkish turn from the Bank of Japan at the December 18-19 meeting. The setup echoes last summer’s episode, when a policy shift in Tokyo triggered rapid deleveraging across risk assets, including crypto. Will The Bitcoin Price Crash Next Week? Analyst Benjamin Cowen explicitly links today’s environment to that July shock. He reminded followers that “in July 2024, the Fed cut rates while the BOJ raised rates, leading to the unwind of the carry trade. Bitcoin capitulated into it, and found a low 1 week later.” He added, “Good chance…
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Yesterday, stock indices closed with gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.11%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.22%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.07%. Futures on American and European stocks rose on Friday, as investors shifted their focus to the upcoming release of key inflation data in the United States ahead of the widely anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 indices climbed by 0.2%, while contracts for the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.4%. Asian indices recovered from a previous decline of 0.7% and have been demonstrating growth for the second week. The MSCI All Country Wor…
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Buy or lose. Investors are preparing for a Christmas rally and are wondering whether a rate cut on federal funds at the FOMC meeting on December 10 will ensure this rally. The end of the year is traditionally a seasonally strong period for the S&P 500, so the proliferation of FOMO, or fear of missing out, is understandable. The question is whether the broad stock index has been driven too far by euphoria. Markets are in a mode where downbeat economic data from the United States is perceived as good news for stocks. In this regard, the announcement by Challenger, Gray & Christmas that American employers plan to cut 71,300 employees in November is seen as a boon fo…
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The Japanese yen rose against the dollar after rumors circulated that officials at the Bank of Japan are ready to raise interest rates this month. It is expected that next week, the BOJ will also announce its intention to continue raising rates if its economic forecasts are realized, while exercising caution about how much it will ultimately raise rates. Such expectations are fueled by domestic pressure to combat inflation, strengthen the national currency, and stimulate sustainable economic growth. A stronger yen may also help reduce import costs, in turn lessening the inflationary pressure that Japanese consumers have been feeling lately. The BOJ's decision to raise ra…
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Yesterday's reaction to US jobless claims data led to a surge in volatility across both currency and stock markets. As it became known, last week the number of claims fell to its lowest level in more than three years, indicating that employers are still largely retaining employees despite a wave of recent layoffs. The number of initial jobless claims decreased by 27,000 to 191,000 for the week ending November 29. However, it is worth noting that weekly claims data can be particularly volatile during holiday seasons. Nonetheless, this figure was below all forecasts gathered in an economist survey. The four-week moving average of new claims, a measure that helps smooth out…
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The dollar declined once again against risk assets following statements by Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council. Trump's economic advisor stated yesterday that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week and predicted a 25-basis-point reduction. "I think we should do this, and I think we are likely to do so," Hassett said, pointing to recent comments from Fed governors and heads of regional banks. "They now seem to be increasingly leaning toward a rate cut." Hassett also noted that he would like to see much lower rates in the long term. "If there is a consensus on 25 basis points, which apparently there is, then w…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the price level at 154.69 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling dollars. However, a significant decline in the pair did not materialize, resulting in a realized loss. The dollar regained some ground against the Japanese yen, but this was seen as merely a technical correction. Yesterday's statements from Donald Trump's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, put pressure on the US dollar in the USD/JPY pair. Investors reacted by selling following his comments regarding a potential adjustment in US monetary po…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British PoundThe test of the price level at 1.3353 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying pounds. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips. Following the publication of data showing a reduction in initial jobless claims in the United States to their lowest level in over three years, the dollar partially regained its position against the British pound. However, statements from Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council and a Trump adviser, on the advisability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the upc…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the EuroThe price level of 1.1663 was tested when the MACD indicator was just beginning to turn down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling euros. As a result, the pair declined toward the target at 1.1640. The dollar regained some ground against the euro after news that US jobless claims fell significantly last week. While this did not prompt investors to reassess the prospects for Federal Reserve monetary policy, it did offer some hope of a recovery in the labor market. The strengthening dollar pressured the euro, which had previously risen amid expectations of a more hawkish stance from the European Centra…
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Bitcoin has slightly pulled back from the $94,000 level and is currently trading around $92,000, maintaining the potential for a new wave of growth. Ethereum also remains above the $3,100 mark, which is very positive. Yesterday, the CEO of BlackRock stated that some sovereign funds are already buying BTC. The November correction provided a great opportunity for large purchases aimed at accumulation for the long term. This statement is undoubtedly an important signal for the crypto market. BlackRock, the world's largest investment company, has a significant influence on institutional investor sentiment. The confirmation of interest from sovereign funds, which control vast…
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The US dollar regained some positions against the euro and the British pound yesterday, though it fared poorly against the strengthening Japanese yen ahead of the central bank meeting. Following the news that jobless claims in the US fell to their lowest level in more than three years last week, the dollar gained some momentum. This positive report lifted trader optimism, suggesting resilience in the US labor market. However, the dollar's growth was limited by cautious rhetoric from White House representatives. Today, important economic reports are expected in the first half of the day, which could significantly impact the euro's exchange rate and the overall economic hea…
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On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how the current Bitcoin market is reminiscent to the structure from the first quarter of 2022. Bitcoin Dynamics Are Currently Looking Similar To Early 2022 Bear Market In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the broader Bitcoin market structure is starting to resemble Q1 2022. First, the analytics firm has shared the data of its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, highlighting price levels that correspond to a certain degree of investor profitability. In the chart, three supply quantiles are listed: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. If Bitcoin trades at the first of these levels, 75% of the supply will be in p…
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[Filecoin] Although the both EMAs in Filecoin have not yet formed a Death Cross, but with the appearance of a Hidden Bearish Divergence on the RSI(14) indicator, which is also in the Neutral-Bearish level, suggests that there is potential for weakness to occur in Filecoin shortly. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1.652 2. Resistance. 1 : 1.595 3. Pivot : 1.553 4. Support. 1 : 1.496 5. Support. 2 : 1.454 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price of Filecoin breaks down and closes below 1.496, it may test the level at 1.454. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1.454 is broken, Filecoin could potentially weaken down to 1.397. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:…
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[Litecoin] With the appearance of a Hidden Bearish Divergence on the RSI(14), which is also at a Neutral-Bearish level, and both EMAs still in a Golden Cross, it indicates that today there is potential for weakening that will occur to Litecoin in the near future Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 88.69 2. Resistance. 1 : 86.12 3. Pivot : 84.15 4. Support. 1 : 81.58 5. Support. 2 : 79.61 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If Litecoin breaks down below 81.58, it may test the level at 79.61. Momentum Extension Bias: If 79.61 is broken, there is potential to test down to 77.04. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside bias is restrained if the price o…
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Solana failed to stay above $144 and corrected gains. SOL price is now trading below $140 and might find bids near the $135 zone. SOL price started a downside correction below $140 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $135 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $144 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend losses if it dips below the $135 zone. Solana Price Starts Downside Correction Solana price failed to surpass $148 and started a downside correction, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL dipped below $145 and $144 to enter a short-term bearish…
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: A few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. At first glance, today's reports may seem high-status; however, this week has seen the release of much more significant data. Virtually all of them had no impact on the overall market picture. Both currency pairs continue to move higher in line with local trends, with quite low volatility. Therefore, it is unlikely that anything will change in the market today. In the Eurozone, the third-quarter GDP will be released in its third estimate. This estimate is unlikely to differ significantly from the first two, nor is it expected to provide much assistance to the euro. The Eurozone e…
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Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair attempted to extend its upward move on Thursday, but the market calmed after a volatile Wednesday and was unable to push it significantly higher. Nevertheless, the local upward trend on the hourly timeframe is maintained, so it is reasonable to expect and hope for continued growth. On Thursday, there were no significant events or reports in the UK, while in the US, traders had to settle for a less important unemployment claims report. The report turned out to be much better than forecasts, as the number of new initial claims was significantly lower. The dollar received a slight boost in the af…
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Trade Analysis for Thursday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair traded once again in a "neither fish nor fowl" style on Thursday. The macroeconomic backdrop throughout the day was very weak, so the market found no grounds to open new positions. Overall, this week we have already seen several important reports, most of which have had no impact. Almost all European reports (some quite significant) were ignored by the market, while the American reports were somewhat contradictory and provoked a mixed market reaction. For example, the important ISM Manufacturing Index was worse than expected, while the similar index for the services sector exceeded t…
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As institutional demand intensifies and the crypto market recovers, US spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to lead the sector with a 13-day streak and over $200 million in positive net flows this week, outshining Solana (SOL) ETFs, which recorded their third day of outflows in seven days. XRP Funds Lead Crypto ETF Inflows Spot XRP exchange-traded funds have extended their record-breaking streak after registering their thirteenth consecutive day of positive net flows, with $50.27 million in inflows on December 3. The investment products have seen a remarkable performance since the launch of Canary Capital’s XRPC, the first single-token XRP spot ETF, on Novemb…
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XRP price started a decent increase above $2.120. The price is now correcting gains and might struggle to stay in a positive zone. XRP price started a downside correction and tested the $2.080 zone. The price is now trading below $2.120 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.110 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start another increase if it clears $2.150. XRP Price Dips Again XRP price started a downside correction from the $2.220 zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price dipped below the $2.20 and $2.150 levels to enter a consolidation phase. The price even…
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Reports have disclosed that Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told a Binance-hosted panel he expects Bitcoin to reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026. Bank Moves Could Be The Spark According to market coverage, Bitcoin tumbled about $5,000 in roughly three hours during early December, wiping more than $200 billion from the broader crypto market and triggering nearly $700 million in liquidations. That sudden drop has been linked to moves in traditional markets, not a single crypto event. Some analysts point to a change in Japan’s bond market that is pressuring the long-running yen carry trade. Reports say the Bank of Japan’s policy path is now in focus, with a key decision du…
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Ethereum price started a fresh increase above $3,200. ETH is now consolidating gains and might aim for more gains above $3,250. Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $3,050 and $3,120 levels. The price is trading above $3,120 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with support at $3,130 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above the $3,240 zone. Ethereum Price Eyes Another Upside Break Ethereum price managed to stay above $2,920 and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH price gained strength for a move above the $3,000 and $3,050 resistan…
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Ethereum is approaching a critical moment as multiple bullish signals begin to align. A clear Inverse Head & Shoulders formation, combined with rising accumulation and weakening trend rejection, suggests that the market may be gearing up for a powerful upside move. With momentum tightening and key levels coming into focus, ETH now stands on the verge of a breakout that could set the stage for its next major rally. Inverse Head And Shoulders Signals Brewing Momentum According to a recent update shared by crypto analyst Donald Dean, Ethereum may be gearing up for a significant move. He highlighted the development of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern, a cla…
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Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above $92,500. BTC is now consolidating gains and might attempt an upside break above $93,500. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $92,500 zone. The price is trading above $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $93,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $93,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $90,000 zone and started a fresh increase. BTC gained strength for a move above the $90,500 and $91,500 levels. There was a clear …
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The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Thursday, after showing impressive growth the day before. Recall that on this day, the US dollar received yet another verdict in the form of the ADP report. As a result, the number of private-sector employees in the US decreased by 32,000 in November, rendering all other data virtually meaningless for the American currency. The ISM Services PMI rose? Good, but it does not save the dollar from a decrease in the Federal Reserve's key rate next week. However! The euro rose by 50 pips, and the British pound by more than 100. Why? There are two obvious answers to this question. First, the British currency is historically more vo…
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