Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11729 tópicos neste fórum
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Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Thursday, from the level of 1.3348 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.3282 — the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). From this level, the price may possibly pull back upward toward the target of 1.3293 — a historical resistance level (light blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downFibonacci levels – downVolumes – downCandlestick analysis – downTrend analysis – downBollinger Bands – downWeekly chart – downOverall Conclusion: Downward trend. Alternative Scenario:From the level of 1.3348 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Thursday, from the level of 1.1670 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1640 — the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). When testing this level, the price may pull back upward toward the target of 1.1655 — the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downFibonacci levels – downVolumes – downCandlestick analysis – downTrend analysis – downBollinger Bands – downWeekly chart – downOverall Conclusion: A downward trend. Alternative Scenario:On Thursday, from the level of 1.1670 (yesterday's daily candle close), the m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US dollar experienced a significant decline yesterday following reports that American companies cut jobs in November by the largest amount since the beginning of 2023, which heightened concerns about a more pronounced deterioration in the labor market. According to the data released by ADP Research on Wednesday, the private sector lost 32,000 jobs, while economists had anticipated an increase of 10,000 jobs. The weak ADP report published yesterday intensified fears of a faster worsening of the labor market outlook ahead of the Federal Reserve's final meeting for the year, which is set to take place next week. The report may have a greater impact than usual, given t…
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Bitcoin and Ethereum maintained their positions yesterday, preserving the potential for further recovery following the active sell-off observed on the first day of December this year. Ethereum received additional support from major market players after the news that the Fusaka update had been activated on the Ethereum mainnet. This new upgrade aims to enhance the scalability, efficiency, and security of the network. The changes are expected to significantly increase the network's throughput and reduce transaction fees, making Ethereum more attractive to a broad range of users and developers. The implementation of Fusaka has positively impacted investor sentiment and st…
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In Federal Reserve news, today, the long-running Trump-Powell tension is back at center stage as fresh FOMC clues hint at a potentially decisive December meeting. The mix of weaker labor readings, uneven PMI data, and a Fed shifting away from quantitative tightening has turned routine updates into political fuel. Trump has openly said he would fire Powell if rules allowed it. With Powell’s term ending in May 2026, Trump claims he has already chosen a successor, though he hasn’t revealed the name. In the news today, names like Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessent, and even Michelle Bowman have been floated as possible contenders, the sort of picks that would shift the Federa…
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The Canadian dollar has risen this week, but the increase is primarily due to the U.S. dollar's weakening and an overall appetite for risk, rather than domestic economic factors. The GDP growth for the third quarter outpaced expectations at 2.6% year-on-year, primarily explained by a rebound after a disappointing second quarter, which was revised from -1.6% year-on-year to -1.8%. Excluding external factors, the final domestic demand hardly changed, registering a -0.1% quarter-on-quarter decline, while the preliminary estimate for October showed a decrease of 0.3% month-on-month. Consumer spending contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter compared to 4.2% in the second quarter…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
US Senator Cynthia Lummis has reignited speculation that the United States could move to materially increase its Bitcoin holdings, after posting a Bitcoin-themed image on X with the caption: “₿ig things coming for Franklin!” Lummis Revives Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Hype The image is drawn as a children’s book cover titled “FRANKLIN BUYS BITCOIN AND FINDS FINANCIAL FREEDOM.” At the center sits Franklin, a cartoon turtle in a backwards red cap and bandana, seated at a wooden desk. In front of him is a laptop emblazoned with the orange Bitcoin logo, clearly signaling that he is using Bitcoin-related software or services—most obviously, buying or managing BTC. Franklin’s eye…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Inflation is slowing, interest rates are decreasing, and corporate profits are rising. What could be better for the S&P 500? The US stock market has entered a sort of Goldilocks mode and is poised to restore its upward trend. However, its distinctive feature at the start of winter is the absence of leaders. Diversification of investment portfolios and a move away from tech stocks have become the hallmark of recent weeks. The market sees only what it wants to see. The increase in business activity in the services sector to a 9-month high was perceived by investors as a sign of optimism due to the end of the shutdown, which could, by the way, begin again at the end of …
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Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.30%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.86%. On Thursday, Japanese assets were in focus in the Asian markets. The country's indices led after data from the United States increased the likelihood of a interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, and the sale of 30-year government bonds saw the highest demand since 2019. Meanwhile, many expect that the Bank of Japan will, on the contrary, raise rates next week. Unlike many other markets in Asia, Japan is more sensitive to events surrounding the expectations of a Fed rate cut, partly because the Fed c…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Charles Schwab plans, the latest twist in US-China trade talks, and the surge tied to the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade all hit the crypto market at the same time today, and the overlap is bullish. These three themes keep showing up today because they’re likely driving most of the movement we’re seeing right now. Fusaka has been the biggest catalyst for Ethereum this week. ETH punched through $3,200 after a fast 4% climb, and the upgrade is now getting credit for the bump. Ethereum Fusaka expanded blob capacity sharply through PeerDAS; users are already seeing cheaper L2 activity and smoother network performance. Market…
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Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the level of 1.3250 and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.3250 led to a short entry point for the pound, but after a decline of the pair by 15 pips, demand returned. In the second half of the day, the drop and the formation of a false breakout around 1.3289 led to a buy entry point for the pound further along the trend, resulting in a rise of more than 40 pips. To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD: The British pound continued its rapid rise against t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1651 level and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1651 provided a good entry point to sell the euro, but after the pair declined by 15 pips, the pressure eased. In the second half of the day, active bearish actions at the level of 1.1678 once again led to the opening of short positions, with the pair moving down another 15 pips. To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD: The dollar fell against the euro following news that ADP employment in the U.S. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the price at 155.45 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by 40 pips. The dollar declined against the Japanese yen following news of a sharp drop in U.S. ADP employment for November, a figure economists had been expecting to rise. This only reinforced market expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. this December, while many economists anticipate the opposite actions leaning toward tightening from the Bank of Japan. The market reaction was immediate: the yen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for the British PoundThe price test at 1.3297 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming an appropriate entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 pips. The British pound continued its rapid rise against the dollar following news of a decline in U.S. ADP employment for November. The figure of 32,000 came as a shock to analysts who had forecast an increase of 13,000. This sharp decline indicates a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy, heightening concerns over a weak end to the year. The pound strengthened against the dollar, reaching new multi-month highs. T…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro CurrencyThe test of the price at 1.1674 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had been in the overbought area for quite some time and was declining toward the zero mark, allowing for entering short positions on the euro. As a result, the pair dropped nearly 20 pips. Following the release of unexpected ADP data showing a decline in U.S. private-sector employment, the U.S. currency lost ground against the euro. The November figures showed a 32,000-job reduction, an unpleasant surprise for experts who had expected an increase. Traders, concerned about a potential worsening of the economic situation, began to shed dollar-denomi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
[Crude Oil] With both EMAs position converging and moving between the bodies of the candlesticks, it confirms that #CL is in a sideways condition. However, the appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI(14) suggests that #CL has the potential to weaken. Key Levels Level-Level Kunci 1. Resistance. 2 : 60.28 2. Resistance. 1 : 59.69 3. Pivot : 59.03 4. Support. 1 : 58.44 5. Support. 2 : 57.78 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price of #CL breaks down below the level of 59.03, it may continue its decline toward 58.44. Momentum Extension Bias: If 58.44 is broken, there is potential for Crude Oil to continue weakening down to 57.78. Invalidatio…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
[#USDX] Although there is an appearance of a Bullish Divergence on the RSI(14) with the price movement of #USDX, the strong Death Cross formation between EMA(50) and EMA(200) indicates that sellers are still dominant. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 99.49 2. Resistance. 1 : 99.16 3. Pivot : 98.98 4. Support. 1 : 98.65 5. Support. 2 : 98.47 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 98.65, it may continue its decline toward 98.47. Momentum Extension Bias: If 98.47 is broken, #USDX will attempt to test the level at 98.14. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside bias is restrained if #USDX strengthens and closes…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin approached the $94,000 level but has not yet held a position above it. Ethereum surpassed the mark of $3,100. Amid the relative stability in the cryptocurrency market, BlackRock issued a new forecast for 2026, warning that rising economic instability in the U.S. and the relentless growth of government debt will reduce the effectiveness of long-term Treasury bonds as traditional hedging tools. This may lead to broader adoption of digital assets such as BTC. The report also highlights the growing role of tokenization and stablecoins as key infrastructure linking traditional finance with the digital economy. Such a scenario predicted by one of the world's largest as…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar fell sharply against several risk assets yesterday for objective reasons. As indicated by the data, ADP employment in the U.S. decreased by 32,000 in November, while economists had expected an increase of 19,000. The report published by Automatic Data Processing raised serious concerns about the state of the labor market in the world's largest economy. Such a significant discrepancy with forecasts indicates potential difficulties in business activity and, consequently, a decline in demand for the U.S. dollar. However, it's worth noting that the report may be distorted due to the recent government shutdown in the U.S., so there is still a chance that things…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Solana started a fresh increase above the $135 zone. SOL price is now consolidating above $142 and might aim for more gains above the $145 zone. SOL price started a fresh upward move above the $135 and $140 levels against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $140 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $143 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend gains if it clears the $145 resistance zone. Solana Price Gains Momentum Solana price started a decent increase after it settled above the $128 zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed above the $135 level to e…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are considered important. In the UK, the construction sector's business activity index will be published. In the Eurozone, retail sales data will be released. In the U.S., initial jobless claims will be announced. We believe even novice traders understand that these data are unlikely to provoke a strong market reaction. All the most significant reports have already been published this week. The ISM business activity indices for the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors showed mixed dynamics, while the most important ADP report on private-sector…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP price started a recovery wave above $2.150. The price is now showing positive signs and might surge if it clears the $2.250 pivot level. XRP price started a recovery wave above the $2.120 zone. The price is now trading above $2.150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance at $2.20 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $2.250. XRP Price Eyes Upside Break XRP price remained supported above $2.00 and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above $2.050 and $2.10 to enter a positi…
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Trade Breakdown for Wednesday: 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair showed a strong upward movement on Wednesday, which may seem strange to many beginners. Indeed, in the UK, only a single services sector business activity index was published, while U.S. data came out after the pair had already made most of its upward journey. In other words, the British pound started to rise during the night when there were no news events, except for some vague remarks from Donald Trump. However, there was nothing new in the statements about the appointment of the new Fed head. Trump mentioned back in the summer that he would soon announce the name of the new central bank chairman. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Breakdown for Wednesday: 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Wednesday after a slight pullback within the local upward trend. It is important to remember that a key technical point remains the flat on the daily timeframe between 1.1400 and 1.1830, which has persisted for five months. After the price reversal near the lower boundary of this sideways channel, a rise toward the upper boundary could be expected purely on technical grounds. Moreover, given that the dollar has not corrected properly against the euro over the past five months and given the fundamental background, any rise in the pair at this point is justified…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
