Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Drilling by NexGen Energy (TSX, NYSE: NXE; ASX: NXG) has returned results as high as 0.5 metre grading 68.8% uranium oxide (U3O8) at its Patterson Corridor East (PCE) target in northwestern Saskatchewan. That result, in hole RK-25-232, was part of a 15-metre intercept at 15.9% U3O8 from 552.4 metres depth, including 3 metres grading 47.8% U3O8 and 1.5 metres at 29.4%, NexGen reported Tuesday. PCE is about 3.5 km east of NexGen’s main Arrow deposit in the Athabasca basin, about 750 km north of Saskatoon. “RK-25-232 is an exceptionally high-calibre intersection considering the program is very early in the evaluation of PCE,” NexGen CEO Leigh Curyer said in a release…
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Navigating the global economy and managing capital market volatility has always posed challenges, but the uncertainties emanating from Washington make this task exceptionally treacherous. The so-called reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 were postponed for 90 days just one week later, ostensibly to usher in a period of intensive negotiations. Yet a few weeks into this cooling-off period, despite claims of dozens of deals in the pipeline, the Trump administration acknowledged it "lacked the capacity" to negotiate with everyone simultaneously. Instead, it indicated it would simply announce new tariff schedules unilaterally in what appears to be a second "Liberation Day.…
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Overview: The on-again, off-again US tariffs are back on, but the judicial process is not over. On top of that, US Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledged what many have suspected: US-Chinese talks have stalled. The dollar, which was offered yesterday, has come back bid today. It is up against nearly all the G10 currencies. The yen is the exception, arguably helped by the firmer Tokyo CPI. The week may also be remembered for the snapping of the sharp jump in Japanese long-term yields. The 30-year yield posted its first weekly loss in five weeks, with an eight basis point pullback. The yield of the 40-year bond fell (43 bp) to post its first decline in eight weeks. The do…
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Overview: There is one driver today. The US Court of International Trade ruled against the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs. The court rules that the 1977 law used to justify the actions did not apply. The ruling also applies to the earlier tariffs on security of the US borders and fentanyl trafficking. The dollar initially rallied but is now more mixed, with the dollar bloc and Scandis firmer on the day. Emerging market currencies have not recovered as well, but after the Russian ruble, the South African rand, Mexican peso, and Chinese yuan are making advances. Equities mostly like the development, but the Trump administration will appeal. Taiwan and Indi…
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Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10 currencies. Ironically, the New Zealand dollar is the strongest following the widely expected quarter-point cut by the central bank. The Canadian dollar is the laggard, the only G10 currency not to have found traction against the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are also enjoying a firm tone, including the South Korean won, ahead of what is expected to be a quarter-point cut from its central bank tomorrow. Despite the strong gains in US equities yesterday, most of the Asia Pacific equity markets fell today. Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore bucked the trend. Europe's Stoxx 600 is given back most of…
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Overview: Speculation that Japan will take measures to stem the rout in the government bond market has helped spur a short-covering bounce in the dollar after finished last week poorly and sold off yesterday. There has been a sharp drop in Japanese long-term bond yields, and although the dollar is higher against all the G10 currencies today, the yen is the weakest, off nearly 0.75%. Given the intraday momentum indicators and sentiment toward the dollar, we suspect North American participants will sell into the greenback's gains. European benchmark 10-year yields are off 1-3 bp today. The 10-year US Treasury yield is four basis points lower near 4.47%. Equities are mostly…
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Between its trade war and the "big, beautiful budget", which is both regressive and adds on more debt, the US has roiled the capital markets. Before the weekend, the US said the EU was not negotiating in good faith. President Trump threatened a 50% tariff as of June 1. This looks harsher than the current state of play with China. Europe's Stoxx 600 was sold, and it suffered its biggest loss since April. He also called for a 25% tariff on Apple and Samsung smartphones. Benchmark 10-year yields fell 5-8 bp. The euro itself dropped about two-thirds of a cent but recovered to settled around 0.7% higher on the day and posted its first weekly gain since the week ending April 18…
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Dollar Slumps
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Overview: The dollar is finishing the week heavily. It is off against nearly all of the world's currencies. The only exceptions are the Turkish lira and Hong Kong dollar. For the week, among the G10 currencies, only the Australian dollar has not risen at least 1%, Helped by stronger than expected retail sales, sterling set a new three-year high (~$1.3500). Between the tariffs and the budget, the Dollar Index is set to snap a four-week upside correction, even as the market has pushed the next cut by the Federal Reserve into Q4. Asia Pacific equities mostly rallied, except for China, Taiwan, and South Korea. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed on the day and week…
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Overview: Disappointing flash May PMI readings in Europe and the Asia Pacific helped the US dollar stabilize after yesterday's drop. Asian currencies, including the yen, has been unsettled by reports that in bilateral trade discussions with the US, exchange rates have been discussed. This, coupled with extensive unhedged dollar exposure rocked several of the regional currencies in recent weeks. Yesterday's 1.6% surge of the South Korean won has been mostly though not fully unwound today. The dollar has edged lower against the Taiwan dollar for the third consecutive session today, and the sixth time in the past seven sessions. The greenback is higher against the all the G1…
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Overview: The greenback is under pressure. It is off against nearly all of the world's currencies after falling in North America yesterday. Reports that Israel may be planning a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities has contributed to the broad risk off moods and helped lift July WTI to new highs since early April. While the greenback is not benefiting from the risk-off, gold has extended its gains to about $3300. Still, the dollar is off its lows and North American leadership is await. While equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a four-day advance. It is off nearly 0.5%. The S&P 500 ended a six-day rally yesterday…
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Overview: US stocks and bonds recovered from yesterday's sell-off in Asia and Europe. The Swiss National Bank President Schlegel expressed the views of many Americans when he said on Monday that "There is currently no alternative" to US Treasuries, "and it's not foreseeable that there will be an alternative." The 10- and 30-Treasury yields finished 3-4 basis points lower, stocks closed higher. Yet the tug-of-war continues, and the dollar was sold again in Asia Pacific and Europe today. Among the G10 only the Antipodean currencies are weaker, following Australia's dovish rate cut. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Following the weekend elections, the Romanian leu is t…
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Highlights include US NFP, ISM PMIs, ECB, BoC, EZ CPI, Canada Jobs, Swiss CPI and Aussie GDP Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights for June 2nd – June 6th MON: Swiss GDP (Q1), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI (May), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) TUE: RBA Minutes, South Korean Election, South Korean CPI (May), Swiss CPI (May), EZ Flash CPI (May), US Durable Goods (Apr) WED: BoC Announcement, Australian GDP (Q1), EZ/UK/US Final Services and Composite PMI (May), ISM Services PMI (May) THU: ECB Announcement, Swiss Unemployment (May), Swedish CPIF (May), EZ PPI (Apr), Canadian Trade Balance (Apr) FRI: RBI Announcement, CBR Announcement, German Trade Balance (Apr), EZ GDP …
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Can You Time Month-End Forex Rebalancing Flows? Understanding FX Hedging and Dollar Demand Every month, as the calendar approaches its final days, professional forex traders and global asset managers pay close attention to potential month-end rebalancing flows. Driven largely by movements in equity market, especially U.S. stocks, these flows can influence currency markets in ways that create both opportunity and risk. But the key question remains: Can you actually time these month-end forex rebalancing flows? How Equity Performance Drives Forex Rebalancing When U.S. equities rise or fall during the month, institutional investors such as pension funds, sovereign wealt…
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Adaptive Trade Precision with ForexIGO’s Momentum Tracker Adaptive Trade Precision with ForexIGO’s ForexIGO, an automated trading software developed for MetaTrader 4 (MT4), is designed to give traders an edge in two of the most actively traded markets: Gold (XAU/USD) and GBP/USD. Built for precision and discipline, it leverages momentum-based logic to detect trading opportunities as they form, not after they’ve passed. With built-in flexibility and structured automation, ForexIGO aims to bridge the gap between human decision-making and rule-based trading systems. It delivers a consistent and adaptive solution for volatile markets, making it a reliable tool for both…
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A-Book vs. B-Book Forex Brokers: Does It Matter Which One You Choose? A-Book vs. B-Book Forex Brokers: Should You Care How Your Broker Handles Trades? If you’re trading forex, you’ve probably come across the terms A-book broker and B-book broker. These refer to two fundamentally different ways brokers handle your trades. Any forex broker can put up a fancy website and look like a reputable, top tier business. However, it takes some digging to uncover its business model. Is it an A-book, B-book or hybrid A/B-book model? Either way, should it matter to you should it matter to you if your broker operates an A-book or B-book? In this article, we’ll explain the difference …
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Where is GBPUSD Headed by The Savvy Trader How High Can a Surging GBPUSD Go? This week’s price action in the dollar has been choppy, lacking a clear one-way trend, but the broader tone has been decidedly negative. We opened the week near the highs and are closing near the lows, not an encouraging sign for dollar bulls. Watch GbpUsd A key currency to watch in this context is GbpUsd, which continues to test the upside and a key level around 1.3550. Sellers have consistently stepped in just below it, indicating it remains a psychological and technical cap for now. The market seems to be preemptively pricing in a potential pause but as discussed previously, a brea…
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Trump’s Tariffs the EU’s Fragile Unity and the Bigger Forex Picture Understanding the EU and tariffs with forecasts for the EurUsd and UsdJpy by the Savvy Trader Trump’s Tariffs and The Bigger Forex Picture President Trump’s renewed frustration with the European Union has resurfaced in the form of aggressive trade policies. The latest one is a threat to impose 50% tariffs on EU imports. To some, this move may seem like a calculated strategy. But in reality, it reflects a misunderstanding of how the EU operates and the challenges of negotiating with a fragmented bloc. The Complexity of the EU: 27 Voices, One Bureaucracy Unlike a centralized nation-state, the EU is comp…
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Newsquawk Highlights include Nvidia earnings, FOMC Minutes, US PCE, RBNZ, Australia CPI and OPEC JMMC Newsquawk Week Ahead: 26th-30th May 2025 MON: US Holiday (Memorial Day), UK Holiday (Bank Holiday) TUE: NBH Policy Announcement; German GfK (Jun), French Prelim. CPI (May), EZ Consumer Confidence (May), US Durable Goods (Apr), Dallas Fed (May) WED: RBNZ Policy Announcement, FOMC Minutes (May), Riksbank Financial Stability Report, OPEC JMMC; Australian CPI (Apr), German Unemployment (May), US MBA (w/e 19th May), Richmond Fed (May), Nvidia (NVDA) earnings THU: Swiss & Scandinavian Holiday (Ascension Day), BoK & SARB Policy Announcements; US GDP 2nd (Q1),…
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Why a Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Could Trigger a Short-Term EURUSD Rally and What Could Limit It So How a Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Could Impact EURUSD Exchange Rate With President Trump pushing for Ukraine and Russia to meet and discuss peace, global attention is turning toward the possibility of a ceasefire. While a comprehensive peace agreement remains uncertain, even preliminary talks would mark a significant shift in tone. Let’s assume the two sides finally sit down at the negotiating table and discuss a pause as a first step. What would a ceasefire mean for the EURUSD? A Brief History of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict To understand market reactions, it’s essential …
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Human vs. System Human vs. System: Can Emotion-Free Trading Bots Really Deliver More Consistent Results? Ask any seasoned trader what derails trades the fastest, and most won’t say “bad analysis” or “wrong indicator.” The answer’s almost always the same: emotion. Fear of losing. Greed for more. The urge to win back what was lost. These reactions turn strategy into chaos, and over time, they drain accounts faster than any market dip ever could. It’s easy to follow a plan when everything’s calm. But in the middle of a fast moving market, logic slips. You start seeing threats that aren’t there, or chasing moves that have already nhappened. That moment, where the plan br…
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Is the Moody’s U.S. Downgrade a Red Flag or Not? Why Falling Stocks and Rising Bond Yields Are a Red Flag for Markets Under different circumstances, Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt might have been shrugged off. But this time, it triggered a sell-off in U.S. bonds, stocks, and the dollar as the new week opened. It’s a textbook case of the adage: “It’s not the news, it’s the market’s reaction to it that matters.” The market had been pricing in optimism—higher stocks, a firm dollar, and demand for bonds. The downgrade caught that mood off guard. Was Moody’s downgrade the trigger? Or did it merely highlight deeper vulnerabilities—such as ballooning U.S. fiscal …
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Week in Review: Trump Taco, USD indecision and RBNZ Rate decision This week was once again filled with tradable action in markets. The week started off with closed US and UK markets, a broadly positive sentiment taking global indices higher in the beginning of the week with the Nikkei 225 leading the charge. The US Dollar also started the week on a good note, although things have since changed with Wednesday evening Taco Trump headlines: The US Federal Court have cancelled the US President's plan to impose record tariffs on key economic partners. close …
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Markets generally move in two primary ways: trending or rangebound. Trending markets are popular among traders for their directional clarity. They offer chances to ride momentum, add to positions, or fade extremes. They also give structure and potential for extended moves. However, rangebound markets are also full of opportunities. They provide clear levels where one knows when he is wrong and help to assess if prices are elevated or cheap. (Even though this is always a touchy subject in Trading - everything is relative!) Markets in range rhyme with a general acceptance of prices, and buyers and sellers balance out. GBPJPY has been in a large range since September 202…
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USDCAD had seen a decent rebound from last week lows, starting the week at 1.36850. It was a generally positive week for the US Dollar and a relatively muted one for the Loonie. A lack of key economic data before this morning led to some recovery in the USD, particularly as earnings came in overall better than expected. We just received the report for the Core PCE Data which came in as expected, at 2.5% Y/Y. This piece of data is what the FED wants to see to resume the cut cycle that had began in September 2024, taking the Effective FED Funds Rate (The main US Policy rate) from 5.50% to the current 4.25%. The last 25 bps cut was done in December 2024. The Bank of Can…
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The yen is higher on Friday. Iin the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.63, down 0.37% on the day. Tokyo core inflation higher than expected at 3.6% Tokyo core CPI climbed to 3.6% y/y in May, up from 3.4% in April and above the market estimate of 3.5%. This marked the highest level since Jan. 2025. Tokyo core inflation is viewed as the leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends and is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan. Tokyo core CPI, which excludes fresh food, was driven higher due to due higher non-fresh food prices, particularly rice which has soared 93% over the past year. The jump in core CPI bolsters the case…
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