Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12343 tópicos neste fórum
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 18 As the title says, Markets are roller coasters. Volatility fiends are loving the action, particularly when looking at how much back and forth action all asset classes are seeing. As was mentioned in one of our Market Wraps from a few days prior, such flows resemble those that can be seen at the end of huge Quarters. However, we are still far even for Month-end. November is known to be a volatile month (although usually one for upside in stocks). Crypto veterans can only confirm as the two past Market cycle tops (2018 and 2021) have happened between November and December. Seasonals are always a big th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The beginning of October 2025 has brought a storm of significant developments across global financial markets — equity corrections, gold surging to historic highs, and conflicting macroeconomic signals. Traders and investors are navigating a highly unusual environment where the U.S. dollar is strengthening, Treasury yields are falling, and haven assets are soaring — all driven by political and monetary uncertainty. Multivariable Uncertainty: Why Markets Are Pulling in Different DirectionsThis week's macro triggers are familiar, but their simultaneous force and impact are exceptional. The key political backdrop is yet another extension of the U.S. government shutdown. The…
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The political crisis in the United States continues to grip financial markets, exerting significant influence, with the dollar being the main beneficiary. How long will its positive momentum on Forex continue? Let's try to analyze this question. The political crisis in the US, known as the shutdown, has already exhausted everyone and is causing substantial losses to the American economy. There seems to be no end in sight, as the political standoff in Washington remains intense. The absence of fresh economic data also unnerves and disorients investors. This Friday, the release of the Department of Labor employment report was expected, but it did not happen due to the gover…
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The week ahead is a macro minefield; we might be on the precipice of a crypto crisis. Between the Fed’s July meeting, earnings from tech giants, inflation prints, and labor numbers, investors face a stack of intimidating market signals. Add in trade tensions with the EU, and Q3 could jolt sharply in either direction. Here’s what you need to know: All Eyes on the Fed’s July Meeting “We are here to save the bull run.” Do you think either of those guys thought that? Regardless, don’t expect fireworks from the Fed this week. The consensus on Polymarket points to rates staying put between 4.25% and 4.5%. Trump keeps pushing for cuts, but Powell’s sticking to his guns and…
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Trading platform juggernaut Robinhood (HOOD) will report its results today (November 5) after the market closes at 9:00 p.m. UTC. With the firm’s growing presence within the crypto space, many will be watching closely as the Robinhood earnings could signal the next moves in the bull run. The HOOD share price closed yesterday at $136.80 and is down -6.46% in the past five days. However, Robinhood has experienced incredible growth in the past year, as reflected in a share price increase of +462.5% over the past twelve months. (SOURCE: Yahoo Finance) Analysts Speculating Huge Growth for Robinhood Earnings This quarter, analysts are expecting Robinhood’s revenue to grow …
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Overview: The US markets responded dramatically to Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole before the weekend. In today's late August session devoid of much news, the markets are consolidating. The dollar is in narrow ranges, and there may be some more corrective upticks in North America today. Emerging market currencies are more mixed. The PBOC set the dollar's fix lower by a relatively large amount (~0.23%) to a new low for the year and index of Chinese property developers rose as much as 3% earlier today amid expectations of new measures to support the real estate sector. The Fed funds futures market is discounting now only the high probability of a Fed c…
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Overview: The dollar rallied in North America yesterday and the foreign exchange market seems to be waiting for its leadership again today. Against the G10 currencies, the greenback is consolidating in narrow ranges near yesterday's best levels without advancing. The dollar is mixed against the major currencies but is not much more than +/- 0.15%. Emerging market currencies are mixed with most of Asia Pacific currencies a little lower and central Europe slightly firmer. The news stream is light. Besides the unexpected flat Tokyo September CPI, the market is digesting a rash of new tariff announcements by the US. They include 100% on non-generic pharma (with an exemption f…
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Overview: After a volatile start to the week, the capital markets are quieter and the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. The Trump administration is challenging reports that claim the barrage of US bombs merely set back the Iranian nuclear project by a few months. No coup de grace was delivered. The dollar, which was sold to new lows for the year against the euro and sterling yesterday, is trading with a firmer bias today. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are slightly firmer but the other G10 currencies are softer, led by yesterday's outperformers, the Japanese yen (~-0.5%) and the Swiss franc (~-0.30). Emerging market currencies are mixed. Cen…
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The outcome of the Fed meeting was, as expected, a 0.25% rate cut. But, as I noted in the previous article, all the attention was on the central bank's published forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators through the end of this year and the next two years. It was precisely the forecasts, not the fact of the rate cut — which had already been priced into asset values — that gave significant support to the main beneficiary of this theme, which has been dominating the markets in recent weeks. First, let's look at the forecasts. The main point is that the Fed projects further rate cuts amid consumer inflation stabilizing around 3%. At the press conference, Chair Jerome Powell…
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Despite the ecstatic rallies around all assets, some notable divergences emerged across sectors in the Stock and global Markets. Fed's Goolsbee, a dissenter of the recent 25 bps cut, came in hot throughout several rounds of interviews earlier this morning, warning about the damaging effect of pre-emptive "Front-Loaded" cuts from the Federal Reserve. The first comments after FOMC Meetings are always essential for traders and investors to track, as they look to learn more about who voted, for what, and why. This becomes particularly interesting around this point of the cycle, where inflation and employment balance risks for the world's largest economy. In the past 30 m…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 13 The news of the US government reopening yesterday evening did little to stop the bleeding in markets today. Despite the absence of major negative headlines, global markets were hit by a broad and significant correction, spanning both equities and cryptocurrencies. With no clear catalyst to blame, investors seem to be revisiting the tech overvaluation fears that triggered similar selloffs last week. zoom_out_map …
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 22. Markets had been dawdling around throughout the whole past week, eagerly awaiting for FED Chair Powell's speech – and it did not disappoint. The US Dollar got sent dropping, rate cut expectations for September back up strong, and all Forex currencies and Cryptos are now back in euphory. I strongly invite you to check these two pieces to spot how strong the reactions are after the dovish speech from Powell: Read More: Dow Jones new all-time highs! Market reactions to FED Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speechA detailed look at the FX Market after the Powell speech – Technical levelsCross-Assets Daily Pe…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 10 The Fed delivered a "neutral" 25 bps cut to 3.50%-3.75%, sending markets higher. Bonds, stocks, and metals all rallied, while the US Dollar took a significant hit. Small-cap stocks and industrials outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+1.50%) and the Dow Jones (+1.10%) leading the way—a natural flow, as rate cuts tend to support these sectors the most. Bitcoin, on the other hand, failed to hold its highs unlike other asset classes. Still, Ethereum and some altcoins maintained some strength, the broader crypto market still seems confused. Tomorrow's close will be essential for all asset classes; Despite…
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The New Zealand dollar has renewed its upward move after a pause on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5957, up 0.52% on the day. Earlier, NZD/USD rose as high as 0.5964, a two-month high. Will Hawkesbury hint at another rate cut? The markets will be keeping a close eye on Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby, who will discuss the RBNZ's August Monetary Statement at an event in Auckland on Thursday. At the August meeting, the Reserve Bank cut rates by a quarter-point to 3.0%, its lowest level since August 2022. The central bank hinted at further rate cuts due to expectations of lower growth both domestically and globally.…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 4. We can blabber all we want about the FED's independence and how it affects markets (in short, it really does, look at metals performance in the past two weeks), but the main idea is that Markets really are just messing around ahead of tomorrow's quintessential Non-Farm Payrolls. About the FED's independence, Stephen Miran, who is currently Chair of the Economic Advisers for the White House, testified as he will be starting to occupy the role left from the recently departed FED Governor Kugler. His testimony was interesting to say the least, very loyal to the Trump Administration's words. One of the m…
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We are getting mixed data from the US in the past couple of days, especially as it comes to Employment. US ADP Private Employment data came in at +37,000 jobs added vs 115,000 Expected - A relatively large miss which may scare markets going towards the NFP number. The previous release was at 60K, and the May report was the lowest in 2 years. The Private sector employment is getting hurt by interest rates that are still relatively high - the May 2024 report was showing an increase of 164,000 jobs. Jerome Powell tends to take a close look at the evolution of private companies economic activity in the FED's dual mandate of optimal Employment and inflation - let's see how t…
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Overview: The breakdown in the US-China trade agreement, the doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs, and Ukraine's daring drone attack have rattled market, sending stock, bonds, and the dollar lower. All the G10 currencies are up by at least 0.35%, with the Scandis leading the way up by more than 1%. Although the Canadian dollar is the laggard, it is trading at new highs for the year. Most emerging market currencies are higher, as well. Although the Law and Justice presidential candidate in Poland won the run-off, which will challenge Prime Minister Tusk's lead Poland into European leadership, the zloty is up about 0.5% today. Still, it is underperforming other currenc…
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Markets are getting ignited by this morning's Non-Farm Payrolls report – You can access the details of the report right here. For a quick recap, the 73K vs 110K expectations got combined with some huge downward revisions to the previous month's number (14K vs 147K announced). Equities which had been trading in paradise territory are facing a reality check, and the US Dollar which also saw a strong relief is getting sent right back down. On this Market Reaction piece, we will take a look at a few Major pairs, Gold, and some Equity indices to spot some key levels for upcoming trading. As August begins with a hot start, it is essential to get ready – We should see some b…
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The past week was subject to more rounds of volatility, taking major US Indexes to retest and break below October lows. Hawkish Fed fears and the cancellation of key October reports like the CPI—due to the recently ended 43-day government shutdown—brought further fears into an already fragile bull momentum. However, an end-of-week rebound brought back some life into the market. This shift occurred after NY Fed President John Williams mentioned that a rate cut "in the near term" is still appropriate, effectively signaling that a December cut is not impossible. His comments helped bring the odds of a 25 basis point cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting from a low of arou…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 13. Ceasefire talks between the EU and Ukraine, with Trump reportedly on the call, have edged closer to a deal—though the compromise would require Ukraine to cede land, keeping the agreement politically sensitive and far from certain. More Fed speak today on the tariff impact, with Goolsbee noting there is room for rate cuts but stressing the need for data dependence before making any move. Markets took the comment in stride, with little shift in rate expectations. The Nasdaq pushed to fresh all-time highs near 23,986 on CFDs, while the S&P touched 6,484, before both eased off their peaks as traders bo…
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The markets are experiencing a slight corrective decline amid expectations for the release of key inflation indicators and the Federal Reserve meeting results, both to be announced on December 10. According to the dynamics of futures on federal funds rates, there is an 87.2% probability that the U.S. central bank will once again cut the key interest rate by 0.25% this year, bringing it to a range of 3.50-3.75%. Yes, investors have already factored this possibility into their calculations. Major U.S. stock indices have recently nearly compensated for the decline in the third quarter of last month, although they have not yet recovered to their previous historical highs, sto…
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Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. Last week, the FOMC delivered a highly expected 25 bps cut, which was quickly repriced from the final stretch of November trading. But at what cost? As Fed Goolsbee warned, cutting preemptively risks boosting an inflation rate that remains a wildcard—a concern that will be tested by tomorrow’s November CPI report. For equity bulls this is starting to be a real concern: reignited inflation could severely compromise the prospects for future cuts in 2026. The overall theme for US Markets going into next …
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Markets Surge as U.S. Government Shutdown Nears End Stock Market Facts The end to the stalemate in the U.S. Senate and growing optimism for an end to the government shutdown have sparked a sharp rally across risk assets, from equities to gold. Many are calling it a relief rally, while others see it as a reaction to expectations of a coming liquidity boost once government operations resume. Regardless of the label, what matters to traders is the reaction to the news. The eventual reopening of the government should not have been a surprise, only the timing was uncertain. As noted on the Global-View.com Forex Forum, with Thanksgiving less than three weeks away, pressure…
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Overview: The US federal government is under partial closure following the inability to approve appropriations to start the new fiscal year. The president has threatened to permanently fire not just furlough many "non-essential" government workers, but note that as of yesterday, some 150k federal workers have accepted the government's buyout. The longest shutdown in this macabre and repeated political drama has been 35 days in President Trump's first term. We fear this one may also be protracted. The dollar is narrowly mixed, steadying in late European morning turnover after initially being sold. The dollar is also mostly firmer against emerging market currencies. The r…
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Most Read: S&P 500, Dow Jones Q3 Outlook: Tariffs, Tech, and Small Cap Concerns Market optimism was dampened in the Asian session as market participants digested the latest Trump tariff updates which included a 35% tariff on Canada. President Trump also announced a potential blanket tariff of 20% on other countries. close Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) …
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