Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
6915 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.04 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's bearish potential. For that reason, I did not initiate a sell trade. However, the bounce buy from 146.66 yielded about 40 pips in profit. A strong sell-off in the U.S. dollar occurred yesterday after the ADP report showed a drop of 32,000 in U.S. employment, signaling a potential need for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This sudden employment data miss triggered a chain reaction in currency markets. Investors quickly reevaluated their expectations fo…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3474 price level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and resulting in a 40-pip rise. The sharp drop in U.S. employment data from ADP for August triggered a strong sell-off of the U.S. dollar and a strengthening of the British pound. Investors, concerned about a slowdown in the U.S. economic recovery, quickly moved away from dollar-denominated assets, while the pound, conversely, found support amid expectations of a more cautious monetary policy from the Bank of England. However, this out…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1740 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips, and that was the end of the movement. An unexpected decline in U.S. employment, as indicated by ADP data, with a drop of 32,000 jobs, triggered an active phase of selling in the U.S. dollar, which in turn supported the euro's exchange rate. However, the negative labor market data was partially offset by positive figures from the manufacturing PMI index. This combination of conflicting signals created a climate of heigh…
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The U.S. dollar has once again come under pressure, this time due to another round of weak fundamental data, which triggered a rally in risk assets — including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen. The sharp drop in U.S. private-sector employment, as reported by ADP (down 32,000), led to an active sell-off of the dollar and strengthened the euro, pound, and yen. However, this disappointing labor market data was partially offset by a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI, which limited the dollar's downside momentum. These conflicting signals created an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market. On one hand, job losses highlight potential vulnerabilities in the U…
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has plummeted recently. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Value RVT Is Approaching Cycle Lows In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT of the short-term holders. The Realized Value RVT is an oscillator that measures the ratio between the sum of profits and losses being realized by BTC investors, and the total transfer volume on the network. In simple terms, what the metric tells us about is whether holders are participating in a high or low amount of profit-taking/loss-taking compared to…
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Key takeaways BoJ policy shift intact: Japan’s central bank is still moving gradually toward policy normalization, supporting renewed yen strength.Tankan survey improvement: Q3 2025 Tankan survey for large manufacturers improved to 14, its highest since Q4 2024, boosting economic confidence.Yield spread narrowing: US-Japan yield differentials are shrinking, making US Treasuries less attractive versus JGBs, pressuring USD/JPY lower.Technical setup: A break below 146.30 may trigger a medium-term bearish breakout, exposing deeper downside targets. After trading in a choppy sideways range for almost five months since late April 2025, the Japanese yen is likely on the br…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are considered significant. There are no reports planned in the UK or Germany. In the eurozone, only the unemployment rate will be published, and in the U.S., weekly jobless claims are scheduled. All of these reports are considered secondary and are likely to trigger only a mild market reaction. As a result, both currency pairs, which have recently shown lackluster movements, may experience low volatility and range-bound behavior today. Fundamental Events Analysis: Very few fundamental events are expected on Thursday — just a few speeches from European Cent…
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Following a massive Q3 performance, Solana (SOL) has kicked off “Uptober” with a bounce, attempting to reclaim a crucial area as support to continue its bullish rally. Some analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency is ready to challenge the recent highs and enter a new price discovery phase. Solana Starts ‘Uptober’ In The Green After the recent market correction, Solana has started the new quarter with a 7.3% bounce from yesterday’s lows. Last week, the cryptocurrency fell from its recent highs and hit a local low of $190 after closing below the $200 support for the first time in nearly a month. Over the weekend, the altcoin reclaimed the crucial barrier and atte…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also influenced by macroeconomic factors. Since there were no major UK data releases during the day, the British pound avoided participating in the early-morning decline that affected other currencies. Given the generally unfavorable macro and fundamental backdrop for the U.S. dollar, the pound continued its steady appreciation. The selloff in the dollar accelerated after the release of the extremely weak U.S. ADP employment report. The subsequent ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly better, which helped the dollar recover briefly. However, it's important to remember that the U.S. governme…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade erratically, effectively moving sideways. The primary reason behind this choppy and unattractive behavior was the macroeconomic environment. Both the EU and the U.S. released several significant reports, each triggering its own market reaction. The day began with euro area inflation data, which, unlike German inflation, did not exceed forecasts. This disappointed traders and triggered a decline in the value of the euro. Later during the U.S. session, an extremely weak ADP labor market report was published. This report could serve as the main reference going forward if…
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[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Thursday, October 02, 2025] With the RSI in the Extreme-Bullish area and both EMAs showing a Golden Cross, #NDX today has the potential to rally toward its nearest resistance level. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 25064.1 2. Resistance. 1 : 24920.6 3. Pivot : 24663.9 4. Support. 1 : 24520.4 5. Support. 2 : 24263.7 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If #NDX breaks and closes above 24663.9, it could move toward 25064.1. Momentum Extension Bias: If 25,064.1 is successfully breached and closes above it, the Nasdaq 100 index could test the 25320.8 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if #NDX drops and c…
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[Platinum] – [Thursday, October 02, 2025] With all technical indicators pointing to bullish conditions, such as the RSI being at a Neutral-Bullish level and both EMAs forming a Golden Cross, today #PLF has the potential to strengthen toward its nearest resistance level. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1654.7 2. Resistance. 1 : 1624.8 3. Pivot : 1600.7 4. Support. 1 : 1570.8 5. Support. 2 : 1546.7 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If Platinum breaks and closes above 1600.7, it has the opportunity to test the next level at 1624.8. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1624.8 is breached and closes above that level, #PLF could strengthen further up to 1654.7. …
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Early in the European session, gold is trading around 3,865, below the 21SMA, and within the uptrend channel formed on September 19. Gold reached a high at about 3,895. From this level, we have seen a series of technical corrections. So, the instrument is likely to continue its decline until reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel around 3,840. If gold consolidates above 3,870 in the coming hours, we could expect a resumption of the uptrend. Hence, the metal could reach 3,906 around +2/8 Murray. On the other hand, while the gold price is trading below 3,870, the outlook could be negative, and a technical correction is expected that could push the price to the Murray le…
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Bitcoin is trading around $118,750, around 6/8 Murray, and within the bullish trend channel formed on September 28. On the H1 chart, we can see that gold reached the 119,350 level, which coincided with the top of the bullish trend channel. In the coming hours, we can expect a technical correction for Bitcoin, which could reach the 21SMA around 117,247, and potentially even reach support at the bottom of the bullish trend channel, currently at 116,750. If Bitcoin consolidates above 118,750, it is expected to reach the top of the bullish trend channel around 119,566 and potentially surpass the psychological level of $120,000. On the other hand, if bullish strength prevails …
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The euro is trading around 1.1735, above the 200 EMA, above the 21 SMA, and above the 8/8 Murray, which could indicate a recovery. However, EUR/USD is under bearish pressure as it is located within a downtrend channel. If the euro falls below the 8/8 Murray and below the 200 EMA in the coming hours, this could indicate a further bearish movement. Therefore, EUR/USD is expected to reach the 7/8 Murray at 1.1596 in the short term. A sharp break above 1.1765 could favor a recovery for the euro. In the short term, it could reach +1/8 Murray at 1.1840 and even reach +2/8 Murray at 1.1962. The eagle indicator on the H4 chart is showing a positive signal for the euro, so a recov…
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Solana (SOL) shook off a swift sell-off to $205 on Tuesday, rebounding above $209–$216 as institutional-sized wallets scooped the dip while over-levered retail longs were flushed. The slide coincided with U.S. shutdown jitters across risk assets, but crypto quickly mirrored equities’ intraday recovery. Order-flow dashboards (anchored CVD in the $1M–$10M bucket) show pro buyers adding on weakness, while funding briefly flipped negative—an attractive setup that encouraged fresh longs in spot and perps. Solana ETF Speculation Keeps Bulls Optimistic Ahead of October 10 The next major milestone for Solana is set to arrive on October 10, when the SEC is expected to decide…
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Ethereum price started a steady increase above $4,320. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,400 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $4,250 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance at $4,180 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,400 and $4,420. Ethereum Price Gains Over 5% Ethereum price remained supported above the $4,120 level and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,250 and $4,3…
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So, the U.S. government shutdown is now a fact. However, the market — as expected — did not panic or start "selling America." On the contrary, the S&P 500 rose by 0.34%, and the U.S. dollar index slipped by a symbolic 0.03%. What did change meaningfully were U.S. Treasury yields — the 5-year yield fell from 3.73% to 3.67%, and the 10-year yield from 4.15% to 4.09%. During the previous shutdown in December 2018, the markets also remained calm; equities continued to rally, and although the euro jumped 200 points at the peak of fear, it ended the 35-day shutdown only 60 points higher. Treasury yields also steadily declined back then. What's different this time is that th…
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Since the start of the U.S. budget crisis, the British pound has perked up, reaching the key resistance level of 1.3525. However, this optimism has not been supported by external markets or technical indicators — the Marlin oscillator remains weak and stuck in negative territory. As a result, the pound has retraced more than half of its upward progress. Today, the pair opened above the MACD line. If the upward movement gains momentum, Marlin is likely to enter positive territory soon. A firm break above 1.3525 would open the path toward the next target at 1.3631. Despite the political instability in the United States, the pound has been technically developing within a b…
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The Australian dollar remained calm in response to yesterday's news about the suspension of funding for several U.S. government agencies, continuing the upward movement that began three days ago. On the daily timeframe, the price remains above both key indicator lines, and the Marlin oscillator is in the positive zone, taking a brief pause before potentially continuing the uptrend. The target at 0.6668 remains open, and a firm consolidation above this level could lead to further gains toward 0.6755. The alternative (bearish) scenario would require a sustained move below the MACD line (at 0.6564). In that case, the downside target opens at 0.6450. In the 4-hour timefram…
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Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a slight surge earlier today, climbing from $113,000 to around $117,000 at the time of writing, in contrast to expectations of several crypto analysts who were predicting a decline in risk-on assets due to the US government shutdown. Bitcoin Rises Despite US Government Shutdown The US federal government shut down at midnight on September 30, as President Donald Trump and Congress failed to reach a deal on funding. Specifically, the two camps were at odds over enhanced Obamacare subsidies, with neither party willing to take the blame. However, Bitcoin made a surprise move to the upside despite the uncertain environment created by the US governme…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, which began a few days earlier. While the euro came under pressure following the release of eurozone inflation data, the British pound had no such releases and continued to climb without interruption. Overall, the pound is rising, while the dollar continues to fall — a trend that is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. The pair has essentially been in a state of consolidation for over two months, but during that time, the pound never lost more than 400 points. In fact, the downward correction could be considered completed as early as August 1. So while the pound may not be growing as firmly as in the…
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The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a downward movement on the third trading day of the week. However, overall behavior has remained consistent — this is still a gradual upward trend on the lower timeframes. On the 4-hour chart, the euro has been rising steadily for the past month and a half, indicating no fundamental change in price behavior. The euro still tends toward growth, but it's a slow grind. Why? It's challenging to answer definitively, but we can assume the initial wave of panic associated with Donald Trump's policies has passed. From here, the euro may climb more calmly — unless, of course, a sudden shock sends the dollar into another tailspin. Yesterday, like…
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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade... sideways throughout Wednesday. In recent days, we didn't expect the market to settle into a flat range, but at this point, we can confidently say the pair is in either a sideways channel or a movement that strongly resembles one. There remains an upward tilt, yet macroeconomic data and fundamentals have almost no lasting influence on price movement. To be more specific, individual economic reports do trigger market reactions, but these reports often contradict one another—preventing any sustained trend formation. Wednesday was a textbook example. Eurozone inflation data came in exactly as foreca…
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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD pair also moved in various directions on Wednesday, influenced by the macroeconomic backdrop. During the early part of the day, the British pound continued its technical recovery. However, in the second half of the day, volatility surged. First, the U.S. ADP employment report was released with a negative figure. Then came the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which showed a "conditionally-positive" result. As a result, the dollar initially weakened, then strengthened — and now, a new downtrend is visible on the hourly timeframe. The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of strain, and this Friday's usual Nonfarm Payrolls may not be …
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