Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Bitcoin is now back trading above $115,000, but the recovery comes with a shadow that cannot be ignored. A new gap opened on the CME Bitcoin futures chart, and while the spot market has pushed higher since then, the presence of this gap opens up a bearish scenario. These gaps have a history of pulling Bitcoin back down to fill them, and the most recent one opens up questions about how long the current bullish momentum can last. Bitcoin Opens Up Huge CME Gap Crypto analyst Daan Crypto noted on the social media platform X how Bitcoin opened the week with a huge CME gap that has continued higher since the futures open. This gap is important, as it has been a while since Bit…
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The SEC just made a move that could make life a little easier for crypto firms. Its Division of Investment Management put out a no-action letter saying it’s not going to crack down on advisers or funds that use state-chartered trust companies to hold crypto. That’s a pretty big deal, especially considering how rigid things have been up until now. It gives firms more options for storing digital assets without worrying about stepping on a regulatory landmine. What the No-Action Letter Actually Says Here’s what the letter actually lays out. If a state trust company is properly set up to handle crypto, and it follows a list of rules, then advisers and funds can treat it the…
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People in the industry are starting to talk like Solana spot ETFs are finally about to happen. Issuers are looking at the window between October 6 and 10 as the most likely time for the SEC to give the green light. There have been some real changes in how the SEC is handling crypto funds, and those changes are fueling confidence. Behind the Hype: What’s Changed A big part of the momentum comes from the SEC’s decision to adopt what are called generic listing standards for crypto exchange-traded products. That move basically removes the need for ETF issuers to file a separate rule change every time they want to launch a new crypto ETF. Instead of a long, messy process for …
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Shiba Inu is approaching a decisive inflection on the 6-day SHIB/USDT chart, according to analyst CryptoNuclear’s October 1 TradingView update. The pair is pressing into a long-standing demand shelf between $0.00000850 and $0.00001183, a band that has repeatedly arrested declines since 2022 and underpinned the market’s extended sideways structure. The zone is highlighted as the market’s “make-or-break” area: hold here and the path opens to a multi-leg advance; lose it and the structure degrades into a deeper drawdown. Key Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Levels Structurally, the macro picture remains defined by lower highs from the all-time peak, which continues to signal longer-t…
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Gold’s new record and a fresh US government shutdown put crypto on edge, with Bitcoin hovering near $116,000 as traders brace for data blackouts and a foggier Fed path. The United States entered a federal government shutdown overnight, rattling markets worldwide. Gold surged to an all-time high, while the dollar weakened, as crypto traders debated whether risk aversion would weigh on or support digital assets. (Source: Coingecko) Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$116,000s, fairly steady on the day, by the end of Wednesday. There were wider crypto shifts that were uneven, and the large caps were experiencing both small gains and losses. Gold hit a new intraday high…
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The final — and perhaps most important — point to consider is the economy. When government spending is slashed and up to 1 million federal employees are furloughed, economic and business activity drops abruptly. American consumers cut back on spending, and business revenues, along with personal incomes, decline. Between 2018 and 2019, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.4%, and between 2012 and 2013, by 0.6%. However, economists noted that the 2018–2019 shutdown was only partial, while in 2012–2013, it was total. This means that in just two weeks of a total shutdown, the U.S. economy sustained one and a half times more damage than it did during five weeks of a partial shutdo…
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Perhaps the most interesting aspect for us as traders is the statistical picture. Since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is also a government agency, all upcoming labor market reports will not be published during the shutdown. As I've mentioned before, I personally doubt this is inevitable, but no one knows for sure at this point. If the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report doesn't come out this Friday, the market will find it extremely difficult to assess the condition of the U.S. labor market — especially after five consecutive months of weak numbers. Even more complicated will be the situation for the Federal Reserve, because on what basis will it set monetary policy if it…
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Six years ago, as many economists acknowledge, the government shutdown was not a total shutdown. At that time, the U.S. Congress had managed to approve at least part of the budget for the upcoming fiscal year, so not all federal employees were at risk of being furloughed. In 2025, however, the situation is very different. Virtually all public servants are now under threat because Democrats and Republicans have failed to agree on fundamental spending issues. It's also important to note that a U.S. federal employee is not limited to the stereotypical desk worker or postal carrier. It also includes military personnel, who, although they will not be dismissed, will also not r…
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Before analyzing all the aspects of a "government shutdown" and its impact on the economy, it's worth recalling that the last time the U.S. government suspended operations was six years ago. Previously, it occurred in 2013–2014. In both cases, the American economy lost between 0.4% and 0.6% of its GDP. So it's naive to think that this time there will be no or minimal losses. The U.S. economy is bound to take a hit. The first issue to consider is the fate of federal employees. They are once again being sent on an unplanned vacation, as Donald Trump refuses to make compromises with Democrats. If the shutdown lasts one to two weeks, it won't be catastrophic. But what if it d…
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On Tuesday, just before the U.S. government shutdown took effect, the Bureau of Labor Statistics managed to publish the JOLTS report. Had the release been scheduled for today, it would not have come out due to the suspension of government operations. For the same reason, it is now likely that the September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will not be published on Friday—unless lawmakers pass an interim funding bill, which seems extremely unlikely at this point, given the deep divide between the political parties. Democrats are insisting on preserving subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans firmly oppose the idea. This has resulted in a stalemate in Congre…
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Not as bad as it sounds — yes, the U.S. government did shut down, but this isn't the first time. Over the last 50 years, such events have happened around 20 times. Republicans only need eight votes from Democrats to get the government back to work, and they already have three. It's unlikely the shutdown will last long. That's why buying EUR/USD based on this headline is risky. While previous shutdowns have temporarily hurt the U.S. dollar, they are generally short-term in nature. Yes, delays in publishing important reports, including employment and inflation data, are expected. Yes, there will be furloughs and a slowdown in GDP — but history shows that things eventually s…
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The latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting delivered a few surprises, helping the Australian dollar hold its ground against the U.S. dollar. However, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. As expected, the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 3.6%, as inflation remains at its highest level since July 2024. The RBA directly acknowledged this inflation risk, stating: "...while recent data is incomplete and volatile, it suggests that inflation in the September quarter may come in higher than anticipated during the August Monetary Policy Statement." The central bank also noted signs of recovering consumer demand, which increases the risk of upward pressure on p…
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The narrative surrounding Ethereum’s future has fundamentally shifted, and is rapidly solidifying its role as the global, compliant settlement layer for traditional finance (TradFi). This strategic transformation is inextricably linked to the dominance of Stablecoins and the explosive growth of Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs). Network Effects Of Stablecoins And RWA On Ethereum In a recent post on X, the Token Terminal highlighted a key insight focusing on why Stablecoins and RWAs matter for the Ethereum market cap. To date, Stablecoins and RWAs are crucial for ETH, as the market capitalization of tokenized assets on ETH acts as the floor for ETH’s market cap. The re…
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SWIFT goes on-chain with Chainlink, and UBS is already piloting fund trades, putting real-world finance one step closer to blockchain at scale. Will this integration push LINK price higher? Here’s the Link price prediction. Chainlink has rolled out a new integration with SWIFT that allows banks to trigger tokenized fund subscriptions and redemptions directly onchain using standard ISO 20022 messages. The work runs through the Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE) and was tested in a pilot with UBS Tokenize during Sibos week. How Does Chainlink Connect SWIFT Messages to Blockchain Transactions? The setup maintains legacy systems while integrating them with blockchain rai…
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The Dogecoin price is about to complete a Golden Cross pattern, a technical event that often signals the start of a super bullish run. A crypto analyst argues that the real test lies at $0.33, a resistance level that could determine whether DOGE begins its next major rally and extends its momentum into the broader altcoin market. Golden Cross Forms On Dogecoin Price Chart Crypto analyst Cas Abbe recently highlighted in an X social media post Dogecoin’s bullish momentum, noting that the meme coin is about to complete another Golden Cross. In technical terms, a Golden Cross signals the potential start of an extended bullish cycle. Cas Abbe emphasized the significance …
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An update for Aclara Resources’ (TSX: ARA) Carina project in Brazil has lifted most of the deposit to the indicated category and raised grades for its four rare earths compared to the previous estimate. Shares jumped. The update converts 79% of the inferred resource from last year’s preliminary economic assessment (PEA) to 236.3 million indicated tonnes, Aclara reported Wednesday. Grades rose at least 3% to 293 parts per million (ppm) neodymium praseodymium (NdPr), 43 ppm dysprosium and 6.8 ppm terbium for 371,492 tonnes of total rare earth oxides (TREO). Carina is in the central state of Goiás. “The quality of the Carina deposit has been affirmed,” Aclara chief o…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 1st The US government shutdown officially kicked in, but beyond a brief selloff in the US Dollar — which stopped well short of breaking any key levels — markets have largely brushed it aside: US equities reversed early weakness seen in futures and at the open, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 climbing to fresh all-time highs by the close. In commodities, gold extended its rally, coming within just $5 of the $3,900 mark in yet another push toward uncharted territory. With the dollar under pressure but not yet cracking, and risk assets pushing higher, investors seem willing to ignore Washington headlin…
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Trend Analysis In October, from the level of 1.3441 (closing of the September monthly candle), the price may begin moving upward with the target at 1.3990 – the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward toward 1.3786 – the upper fractal (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (monthly chart). Indicator Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward.Comprehensive analysis conclusion: an upward trend is possible. Overall outcome for the GBP/USD monthly candle calculation: the price will most likely have an upwa…
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SWIFT, the global network that handles most of the world’s cross-border payments, is preparing to launch its own blockchain as rumors about an ongoing payments battle with Ripple circulate. While many often compare SWIFT’s role to Ripple due to its XRP-linked payment solutions, this new plan is not a direct challenge to the fintech company, but rather part of a much larger trillion-dollar race to define the future of digital money. SWIFT Partners With Consensys To Build Blockchain Network According to the announcement, SWIFT is collaborating with Consensys, the Ethereum development company founded by Joe Lubin, to create a shared digital ledger that supports faster, chea…
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Guanajuato Silver Company (TSXV: GSVR) is looking to raise as much as C$43 million ($31 million) in a bought deal public offering to support its Mexican mine operations. However, its shares dropped nearly 15% on the news. The company initially announced that it planned to raise C$30 million through the sale of 60 million units priced at C$0.50 each, but later increased the offering to C$43 million (87 million units) due to strong demand. The units each carry one common share and one-half of a common share purchase warrant, with each whole warrant exercisable at C$0.65 per share for three years. Guanajuato Silver’s stock traded at C$0.46 with a market capitaliz…
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Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. We are now halfway through the week, and the main storyline has shifted squarely toward the US government shutdown, which has sparked a sharp N-shaped (for nope) reversal in the US Dollar. The greenback had been climbing steadily after a streak of upbeat economic data — GDP, jobless claims, and Powell’s more balanced-than-dovish tone last week pushed the DXY to fresh highs near 98.60. But shutdown rumors quickly flipped the narrative, triggering heavy selling pressure in the reserve currency, currentl…
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Bitcoin surged past the $115,000 level just a few hours ago, sparking speculation among investors about the potential for further upside. The move comes after weeks of tight consolidation that began in July, a period marked by choppy trading and indecision. Now, with momentum showing signs of returning, many analysts believe the next breakout could be aggressive, setting the tone for the final quarter of the year. The reclaim of $115,000 has reignited bullish sentiment, with traders closely watching whether Bitcoin can build a base above this threshold and aim for the next major resistance at $117,500. Historically, prolonged consolidation phases have often preceded str…
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Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has ignited a notable recovery in the broader cryptocurrency market, recording a 5% gain during Wednesday’s trading session to recover the $117,000 mark. This momentum has positively impacted major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Binance Coin (BNB), which have seen average increases of around 3% in what may signal the onset of a new altcoin season. Crypto Prices Surge Amidst US Government Shutdown The surge in crypto prices coincided with political developments as the US Senate’s failure to pass a temporary funding bill resulted in a government shutdown shortly after midnight on Wednesday. Such unc…
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Crypto pundit Mikybull Crypto has revealed that XRP has flipped green for the first time since 2017. Based on this, he predicted that the altcoin could record a rally of up to 500%, reaching $15 in the process. XRP Eyes Rally To $15 As Price Flips Green In an X post, Mikybull Crypto predicted that XRP could rally to between $5 and $15. This came as the analyst noted that the altcoin has flipped green on the quarterly chart for the first time since 2017. He suggested that the rally of up to 500% may already be underway, noting that XRP has already broken above the resistance, just as it did in 2017. In a follow-up X post, Mikybull Crypto doubled down on his bullish se…
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Shares of lithium producers in Australia slumped after Chinese regulators approved reserve reports for two major projects in Yichun, easing fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Liontown Resources Ltd. tumbled as much as 10.6% at close in Australia, Pilbara Minerals shed 6.3%. The declines followed Bloomberg reports that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) secured approval for a reserve report at its Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi province. Operations at the site have been suspended since August, after the battery giant failed to renew an expired mining permit. The approval brings CATL closer to a potential restart, though no timeline has been confirmed. …
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