Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12370 tópicos neste fórum
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1.20 per euro is the minimum projected exchange rate for EUR/USD by year-end. Most banks and economists agree with this forecast. The news background for the dollar in 2025 is not just poor—it keeps worsening. Just a couple of weeks ago, the market was still digesting Donald Trump's new import tariffs (covering all medicines, trucks, and furniture) and the FOMC rate cut, when a government shutdown had already begun in the U.S., while the labor market continued to cool. Currently, demand for the U.S. currency has not declined significantly, but I believe the market will factor these considerations in later. The Federal Reserve has not just carried out one round of monetary…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Is the S&P 500 in bubble territory? Or is the U.S. stock market simply so strong that the only viable strategy is to buy every dip? Investors overwhelmingly back the latter view — their persistent buying is powering the S&P 500 to its 33rd record high of the year. Cutting through the noise of government shutdown fears, two major themes continue to dominate: artificial intelligence and Federal Reserve monetary easing. It's been six months since the S&P 500 bottomed and began its steady climb. The index has gained 35% in that time — a feat that has only happened five times since 1950. Historically, when the index hits a record in September, it has risen an avera…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The markets wanted to believe that the President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent were right, China overreacted with the broadening and tightening of export licensing requirements for critical materials and de-escalation would result. But this does not seem to be the case. The risk-off mood has sent stocks tumbling and bonds rallying. The dollar is mostly firmer. The dollar-bloc currencies, and especially the Australian dollar, and the Scandis, are lower, where the sell-off in oil (Nov WTI is off more than 2%) to its lowest level in four months (~$58) has taken a toll on the Norwegian krone. Most emerging market currencies are lower, led by the Mexican peso'…
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Bitcoin is facing resistance just below its $112,000 all-time high, struggling to break into price discovery as the market gains momentum. After reaching a high of $110,500 yesterday, BTC has retraced over 2%, but price action remains bullish. Traders are closely watching this consolidation, which may act as a springboard for a decisive move upward. According to top analyst Ted Pillows, multiple technical indicators support a bullish outlook. Notably, Bitcoin has just confirmed a bullish MACD crossover on the daily timeframe, which is often a precursor to upside continuation. Adding to the bullish case is Bitcoin’s highest monthly close in history, a key psychological m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Nova Scotia, having recently lifted its decades-long ban on uranium exploration, says it has not received any bids for the request for proposals (RFPs) covering three areas prospective of the nuclear fuel. The RFPs were announced last month by the government of Nova Scotia following its repeal of the province’s 44-year ban on uranium, which came into effect late March. These RFPs called for individuals and companies to apply for exploration licences in three areas identified by the Department of Natural Resources to have higher levels of uranium: East Dalhousie, Louisville and Millet Brook. The application deadline was Wednesday, June 11. “In the case of urani…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Oh boy, here we go again with the “Big Beautiful Bill” circus. No tax on overtime and tips, promised by President Donald Trump during his 2024 campaign, might be dead. Trump’s tax-free tip is a Molotov cocktail wrapped in dollar bills. Supporters call it a long-overdue break for America’s service class but detractors—including members of his own party—say it should be removed from the bill. Let’s break this down for you before the political spergs comment on it: (X) Big Beautiful BILL: The Good, Bad, and Ugly The proposal to scrap income taxes on tipped wages began as a campaign one-liner at a Trump rally in Las Vegas last summer. Within days, it morphed into a legit…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Crypto=community, and the more active the latter is, the higher the probability of the former thriving. Bitcoin is worth trillions because of the fervent BTC HODLers – both conservative and high risk – 1000X searching degens. Shiba Inu is fading but not gone, thanks to the millions of SHIB holders who shill the project every day. For Algorand crypto, however, it is a different story. When BNB crypto and Solana host multi-million meme coins, there is nothing much to write about Algorand. Yet, even with a barely trending Algorand, the network is worth billions at press time. Data shows that the smart contracts platform has a market cap of over $1.6Bn, and is more valuabl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 5. Today finally met the eternal weeks of waiting for this month's Non-Farm Payrolls release. And the report was not good. You can access the details of the report right here. Markets were preparing to a slowdown after a week of labor data pointing toward a slowdown in hiring and job openings, with rate cut expectations lifting risk-assets from the past week's tumble. However, the harsh reality of tariffs hitting the market may now awaken a deeper fear of a longer-run economic stagnation for the US, as the FED may really have been a bit late to the curve to resume the sparse cutting cycle which deliver…
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Markets appear to be turning the page on the Israel-Iran conflict, which had briefly supported North American currencies. The US Dollar found a bid as crowded short positions were unwound, driven by rebalancing flows and position closures. The Canadian Dollar also benefited, buoyed by a surge in Oil prices that temporarily reinforced the outlook for Canada’s energy-linked economy. However, both narratives have now faded. The Dollar Index has returned to the lower end of its monthly range, while the Loonie has weakened in tandem with Oil giving back its war premium. With geopolitical catalysts fading, market attention is shifting back to incoming economic data for the n…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The week had started on a relatively calm note in for currency markets as markets had been bracing for the US CPI release that came out this morning. Last week finished on a broadly positive note as Non-Farm Payrolls beat which gave some relief to a US Dollar that was selling heavily throughout the past week, with the DXY marking lows at 98.35 before consolidating higher. However, this morning's miss on the Inflation data, particularly on the Fed's favorite Core month-over-month (0.1% vs 0.3%) sent the Dollar Index lower and it is currently retesting last week's lows. The Canadian Dollar on the other hand has been holding and is broadly unchanged on the week against ot…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: There was some, albeit limited follow-through dollar buying today, but the early gains have been pared as the European morning progressed. That leaves the greenback narrowly mixed among the G10 currencies, with the Scandis, sterling, and the New Zealand dollar underperforming. North American leadership is awaited. Emerging market currencies are also mixed. News that Hamas accepted the initial terms of peace deal, helped lift the Israeli shekel. Gold was initially sold, but new buying emerged ahead of $4000, and it is near $4038. Yesterday's record was slightly below $4060. French bonds are stocks are outperforming today, encouraged that a potential deal may be i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Markets have officially turned the page on the Israel-Iran conflict, which ended in a ceasefire last Monday. Since then, equity bulls have pushed major indices to fresh all-time highs, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both reaching new peaks over the past week. The Canadian TSX is also benefiting from the improved sentiment, touching a record high of 26,885 just today. The Dow Jones, which had lagged behind in recent rallies, is now catching up—trading close to 1% away from its own all-time highs. Adding to the optimism are recent trade deals from the Trump administration, including finalized agreements with Vietnam and the official enactment of the US-UK Trade Deal. US …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. North American markets have been subject to wild swings since last week, oscillating violently between a downside panic in Stock Markets and a consequent, gigantic rebound that kicked off on Friday. The US Dollar mirrored this volatility, posting a strong rebound all the way to the psychological 100.00 level before retracting. The reason behind this turbulence is the primary mover for all assets right now: FOMC rate pricing. We witnessed a progressive and dramatic shift in expectations, moving from a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. The end of last week and the start of this one saw a strong reversal of the dominant 2025 market flows for NA assets. A strong wave of profit-taking hit risk-assets: US and Canadian equity markets saw sharp consolidation. Cryptocurrencies were also hit particularly hard which simultaneously provided a significant boost to the US Dollar, which rallied sharply against most majors. This reversal came immediately after the ASEAN meeting, which finally saw the much-anticipated meeting between President Tru…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
North American stock markets largely recovered, particularly Tech, turning what was a scary correction into a small retracement since last week. Most Indices now hover close to their all-time highs, with the Nasdaq remaining the furthest from its peak, down a measly 2.30% from its end-October record. The December 10 FOMC cut is now a quasi-certainty, with a few bouts of lower data since last Thursday beginning to set the stage for another cut in January (currently priced at 27%). zoom_out_map …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. With the US government finally reopening its doors, markets are bracing for an immediate data deluge after months of flying blind. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scrambling to clear the backlog, with the delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) set to drop tomorrow, Thursday the 20th, followed by the release of PPI data on the 25th. Adding to the high-stakes environment, weekly jobless claims are also making a comeback tomorrow morning. While this influx of information is a gift to a Feder…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. As the Wednesday session draws to a close, NA markets are seeing meaningful shifts across the geopolitical and financial landscape. The U.S. dollar staged a strong rebound on the markets front, confirming the thesis that the year’s low for the greenback has likely been reached. The fresh FOMC Minutes release is triggering a brief pullback, but the dollar remains firmly above its August highs. This strength came despite Gold touching the $4,000 level, a consequent rally typically dampening USD momentum…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. A strong US dollar and resilient North American equity markets — both on impressive runs since early October — finally met their first major challenge towards the end of last week: the return of US-China trade tensions. The spark came from a Trump Truth Social post last Friday that reignited fears of a new trade war, triggering a sharp risk-off move across markets. China has tightened restrictions on rare earth exports, a move that rattled Washington and recreated what seemed to be a new challeng…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. The longest US government shutdown in history (43rd day) is still ongoing, but a resolution to finally end it appears imminent, with the House vote scheduled for tonight at 7 p.m. White House economic advisor Hassett also mentioned earlier this week that the shutdown will undoubtedly have a quantifiable negative impact on this quarter's GDP. This impact on the US economy may have just been felt through a round of worrying private data this past week. The Challenger Layoffs report indicated that the n…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Seedify’s bridge has been hit by yet another major crypto exploit, and this time, it’s being tied to hackers from North Korea. Around $1.2 million in funds were drained after attackers found a way to mint fake SFUND tokens. Once they had those tokens in the system, they moved quickly, draining liquidity pools across different chains and swapping the fake assets for real ones. Most of the stolen value ended up on BNB Chain, making it tougher to follow. How the Attack Unfolded It started with a compromised private key. That was all the hackers needed to create unauthorized SFUND tokens, which they then pushed into liquidity pools on Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Base. After extr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Could this be the year that Northern Dynasty Minerals’ (TSX: NDM, NYSE: NAK) controversial Pebble polymetallic project in southwest Alaska finally makes strides? Northern Dynasty – together with the state of Alaska and six Native villages – is awaiting news on its legal bid to overturn a 2023 United States Environmental Protection Agency veto against Pebble. A decision in the matter is expected in 2025, and CEO Ron Thiessen is optimistic that the mine could open by the end of 2032 if the courts rule favourably. At stake is a multi-billion-dollar investment to develop what is considered the world’s largest untapped copper deposit. Besides significant amounts of gol…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX: NDM; NYSE-A: NAK) says it has filed a motion in Alaska’s federal district court seeking a summary judgment briefing schedule with respect to its pending litigation over the veto of its flagship mine project during the Biden Administration. For more than two decades, the Vancouver-based miner has been looking to develop its Pebble project, touted as one of the world’s largest copper-gold-molybdenum resources. However, the proposed mine has faced stern local opposition and undergone a protracted period of review due to its location within the Bristol Bay watershed, where some of the world’s largest sockeye salmon fisheries reside. In …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX: NDM; NYSE-A: NAK) has secured its first detailed court schedule in months for its long-running dispute with US authorities over one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold projects. In the US District Court for Alaska, the company is challenging the US Environmental Protection Agency’s veto of the Pebble project. Opening briefs from Dynasty are due by Oct. 3 and the federal justice department must file its response by Jan. 2, with the company scheduled to reply by Feb. 27. Northern Dynasty also said Friday it’s continuing to negotiate with the EPA outside of court to reverse the veto. “If we are able to come to a resolution t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX: NDM; NYSE-A: NAK) says it’s in talks with the Environmental Protection Agency regarding a potential settlement of ongoing litigation concerning the company’s flagship Pebble project in Alaska. Its shares soared on the update. In March, the Canadian mine developer filed two separate actions in the federal courts to challenge the EPA’s role in blocking the proposed Pebble mine, which, once built, would be the largest copper, gold and molybdenum extraction site in North America. In January 2023, the EPA dealt a fatal blow to the project by prohibiting Northern Dynasty’s Alaskan subsidiary from storing mine waste in the Bristol Bay wate…
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Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX: NDM) (NYSE-A: NAK) says it has received another $12 million payment from its royalty investor while it continues to have talks with the US government on the approval of the company’s flagship Pebble project in Alaska. The payment is part of a royalty financing agreement signed with an unnamed investor in July 2022 for Pebble, touted as one of the world’s largest copper-gold-molybdenum resources. However, the proposed mine has faced stern local opposition and undergone a protracted period of review due to its location near the Bristol Bay watershed, where some of the world’s largest sockeye salmon fisheries reside. Under the royalty …
Last reply by Ben Graham,
