Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12184 tópicos neste fórum
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Yesterday, Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that the U.S. central bank should continue lowering interest rates this year to support the labor market — while keeping them high enough to restrain inflation. "Given that inflation risks have become somewhat more contained and the risks to employment have increased, it seems reasonable to continue normalizing policy this year to support the labor market," Collins said Tuesday in remarks prepared for an event at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Her statement came amid ongoing debates about the future of the Fed's monetary policy and its impact on the economy. Collins' speech highlights t…
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Overview: There were three highlights for today and two, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the UK's labor market update are behind us. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a dovish cut after last month's hawkish hold. It signaled scope for two more rate cuts. The UK's labor market appeared to stabilize, and this has seen the odds of another cut before the end of the pared. The third highlight is the US July CPI. We had anticipated a firmer today for the dollar ahead of the report and this has transpired. Even though headline and core CPI are likely to have edged up, we do not think that stands in the way of a cut next month. The full employment side of …
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While traders operate in a world of instant information—where events from the other side of the globe are known in seconds—the actual unrolling of events is difficult to predict as life is chaotic and although history rhymes, it never repeats itself. Thinking in probabilities is one of the most valuable habits a trader can develop, and this is what most markets does in the long-run, trying to price in events. However, markets (and Central Banks) have never shied away from delivering surprises. A central element in forex trading is the market pricing of interest rate decisions, as it fundamentally shapes expectations for a currency’s current and future demand. This is wh…
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The Australian dollar is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6494, down 0.29% on the day. RBA cuts rates to 3.60% The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the cash rate by a quarter-point on Tuesday in a unanimous decision, bringing the cash rate to 3.60%. This is the lowest level since April 2023 and today's cut was the third this year. This time around the RBA didn't shock the markets, unlike the July meeting when the RBA held rates and said it needed to see additional inflation data before lowering rates. The rate statement began by noting that inflation has "fallen substantially" since 2022 and that inflation had fallen back withi…
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The Australian dollar has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6528, up 0.06%. RBA minutes: need more data before lower rates The RBA shocked the markets earlier this month when it maintained the benchmark rate at 3.85%. The money markets had widely expected the Reserve Bank to trim rates by a quarter-point for a second successive meeting, especially after the trim mean, a key core CPI measure, fell to 3.5 year low of 2.4% in May. However, the RBA had a surprise up its sleeve by not making a move. The minutes noted that the majority of the board wanted to review more economic data, including the all-important quarterly inflation re…
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The Australian dollar is coming off a strong week, gaining almost 1% against the US dollar. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is almost unchanged at 0.6521. RBA widely expected to cut ratesThe Reserve Bank of Australia is virtually certain to lower rates at Tuesday's meeting. This would be the third cut of 2025 and would lower the cash rate to 3.60%, its lowest level since April 2023. This indicates a gradual, cautious approach to lowering rates. The RBA had a trick up its sleeve in July, when it opted to hold rates. The markets had widely expected a rate cut but the RBA said that it wanted to see additional inflation data before delivering a rate cut. Inflation…
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Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, marking a four-year high. While 15,000 new jobs were created, 34,000 jobs were lost during the same period. The Australian dollar and government bond yields both declined as markets began pricing in a higher probability of another interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA held its key rate steady at 3.6% in October and did not indicate a potential cut at the next meeting. However, the latest labor market data suggests a case for easing is building. With third-quarter inflation data due next week, it is clearly too early for a final policy call—but the case for a rate cut has clearly st…
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The Australian dollar is coming off its best week since July, with gains of close to 1%. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6589, down 0.07% on the day. Bullock says inflation in good place but China a concern RBA Governor Bullock testified before a parliamentary committee on Monday. Bullock said that inflation was in a "very good position" as higher interest rates had curbed demand. Still, she warned that there inflation risks remained on "both sides". Bullock was less positive about the geopolitical environment, warning that the significant change in the global trading system which had created massive uncertainty. The Reserve Bank was particularly …
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The economic situation in New Zealand continues to improve slowly, with indicators of economic activity generally rising. The PMI, net migration, tourist arrivals, and construction activity are all showing growth, while stable inflation expectations alleviate concerns about a resurgence in inflation. Data for the fourth quarter is expected to confirm that inflation has already peaked and will not rise further. After New Zealand's GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter, further rate reductions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked like a foregone conclusion. However, the situation has changed; market forecasts for the third quarter suggest gr…
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% this week, bringing the rate to 3%. This would mark a total reduction of 2.5% during the current cycle. Markets are also predicting another cut later this year or early next year, possibly lowering the rate to 2.75% or even 2.5%. …
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Most Read: EUR/USD Slides on French Political Turmoil and USD Rebound, Lagarde/Fed Speakers Up Next The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision, called the Monetary Policy Review (MPR), this Wednesday, October 8th (at 2:00 PM New Zealand time). The meeting comes against a backdrop of disappointing data which included a contraction in economic activity. As a result, market participants cannot agree on how much the RBNZ will cut the main interest rate. Some predict a small cut of 25 basis points (a 0.25% drop), while others are forecasting a large, aggressive cut of 50 basis points (a 0.50% drop) to try and quickly rever…
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October is definitely going to be a defining month for the global cryptocurrency markets, driven by mounting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the much-anticipated decisions on 16 pending spot crypto ETF applications by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. You could go ahead and call October 2025 the “ETF month.” Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas calls the month “Cointober.” Macroeconomic turbulence? Yes. But breakthrough opportunities? Again Yes! The week starts with critical US economic indicators expected to shape investor sentiment across risk assets, including Bitcoin and leading altcoins. These include August’s JOLTS job openings, consumer co…
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XRP’s recent pullback to $2 has not changed the broader technical picture, according to a new analysis shared on X by crypto analyst Egrag Crypto. Despite the lack of bullish price action in recent weeks, the technical analysis proposes that the market structure continues to favor an upside continuation rather than the trend ending. This outlook places the next three to six months in a constructive zone for XRP’s price action, where the probability of further upside is higher than the risk of a downward move. XRP Currently In Consolidation, Not Distribution The assessment of Egrag’s technical analysis is based on XRP’s price action currently ticking a list of boxes th…
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Bitcoin is currently locked in a decisive struggle at a make-or-break resistance zone. After a strong attempt to push higher, BTC was rejected and has retreated to a pivotal support area. The next few sessions are crucial: bulls must quickly reclaim the critical overhead resistance, or risk triggering a wider market retreat back toward lower support levels. Battle At Resistance: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $107,000–$108,000? In a recent update, Crypto Candy noted that Bitcoin’s price action continues to unfold largely as anticipated, maintaining strength and structure across key levels. After enduring a volatile period, BTC held firmly within the $99,000–$101,000 support zone. T…
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Bitcoin remains afloat. Several desperate attempts to pressure Bitcoin yesterday were met with active buying around $86,300, keeping the chances of further upward correction of the trading instrument alive. Ethereum also attempted to bounce back to $3,000, but has not yet managed to break above this level. Yesterday, it was reported that Texas became the first state in the US to start purchasing a spot Bitcoin ETF for its reserves. The first purchases took place on November 20, with the state investing $10 million. Texas is currently buying BTC through the BlackRock ETF IBIT but will eventually move towards self-custody of Bitcoin. This news was received positively withi…
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Traders barely had a moment to catch their breath after Bitcoin hit $93,000 last week when active selling in the cryptocurrency market pushed the world's first cryptocurrency to around $85,500 at the opening of the Asian session. It seems that this is still far from the end of the bear market. Ethereum has also dropped below $3,000 and is currently trading around $2,820. Meanwhile, according to Farside data, outflows from spot BTC ETFs stopped last week, while inflows into spot ETH ETFs were recorded. Additionally, there have been continued inflows into spot SOL ETFs. After a period of relative stagnation and outflows from crypto funds, this could signal a shift in inves…
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Bitcoin faced some challenges around $89,000 yesterday but recovered well to the $93,000 level, around which trading is currently taking place. Ethereum also showed growth in the afternoon, firmly establishing itself above the $3,200 mark. At the same time, according to CoinGecko data, publicly traded companies that are actively buying Bitcoin now hold over 5% of its total supply on their balance sheets. Notably, the company Strategy holds a full 3%. This trend, gaining momentum over the past few years, indicates increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class and a means of storing value. The significant increase in the share of Bitcoin controlled by publi…
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Bitcoin fell back to around $87,500, but it once again saw strong buying interest, keeping the chances of a bullish BTC rally alive for the end of this year. Ethereum also remained above $3,000, which allows for hopeful sentiment, though these hopes are fading day by day. Meanwhile, Strategy is expected to report new BTC purchases today. Yesterday, Michael Saylor published a BTC purchase tracker, after which Strategy typically reports BTC purchases the following day. It's worth noting that publicly traded companies that are actively buying Bitcoin now hold over 5% of its total supply on their balance sheets, with Strategy alone holding 3%. Against the backdrop of a decli…
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Bitcoin continues to fluctuate. Yesterday's update, hitting $84,000, was met with active buying; however, how long this will last is a rather complicated question. The market remains in a bearish trend, and every good correction is perceived as an opportunity to sell. Meanwhile, shares of the Strategy company plummeted by 12% yesterday after it announced the creation of a $1.44 billion reserve to support dividend payments on preferred shares and interest on outstanding debt. The company also stated that it purchased an additional 130 BTC last week. It is clear that investors reacted extremely negatively to the news, fearing that the creation of such a large reserve indic…
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Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000, which is a rather alarming signal for traders. Ethereum is also trading around $3,100, preparing to test the $3,000 mark soon. The sharp decline in the stock markets pulled the cryptocurrency market down yesterday, which is not particularly surprising. According to CryptoQuant and Glassnode, sales by long-term BTC holders are rising, putting strong pressure on the market. However, there are still no buyers, which previously included various spot ETFs, so don't be surprised if we see Bitcoin at $90,000 or even $80,000 in the coming days. The pressure exerted by long-term holders is due to several factors. First, it is the realization of …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin, trading around $91,000-$92,000, maintains a positive outlook and has good potential for further correction. However, given the weekend conditions in the U.S. and low trading volume, it is unlikely that major players will make their presence felt until the beginning of next week. Ethereum has also clearly established its position above $3,000. According to a report from Glassnode, the breakthrough of supply clusters from large buyers is a key condition for restoring momentum to a new peak. The chart clearly shows that the nearest clusters are at $93,000–$96,000, a breakthrough of which will open the way to the $100,000–$108,000 range, where active seller resistan…
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Bitcoin momentarily dropped and was trading at $106,300, while Ethereum fell below $3,700. However, during today's Asian trading session, the declines were bought up. Before we discuss the technical picture and trading plans, it's worth noting that on October 31, but back in 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto released the BTC White Paper, which, although not immediately, completely transformed the digital finance industry. This modest-looking document laid the foundations for a decentralized system, independent of traditional financial institutions and government control. It became the spark that ignited the entire flame of the crypto revolution. Today, 17 years later, we see the fr…
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Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) announced its first profit in six quarters, buoyed by a notable surge in cryptocurrency values during the latest quarter that saw the market’s largest cryptocurrencies,, including Bitcoin (BTC), recover from previous price corrections. This development comes as the crypto firm, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, capitalizes on a favorable market environment that saw Bitcoin reached a new all-time high past $123,000 for the first time, following the signing of the GENIUS Act into law by US President Donald Trump earlier this month. Strategy Reports $14 Billion Gain As of June 30, Strategy held an impressive 597,325 BTC, purchase…
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In 2025 gold prices have reached record highs driven by a confluence of fiscal stimulus measures inflationary pressures geopolitical unrest and shifting investor sentiment. As central banks continue to expand balance sheets with accommodative policies and governments run large budget deficits the purchasing power of fiat currencies has come under increasing scrutiny. In this environment investors have sought refuge in gold which gleams as a reliable store of value and hedge against currency debasement. Reports of new all time price records underscore the market consensus that gold remains one of the few assets with universal appeal and enduring intrinsic value. Demand ha…
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Ethereum (ETH) grabbed fresh attention on June 16 as futures open interest climbed to a yearly high of $36.56 billion. Prices bounced back above $2,600 and hovered near a key resistance level that has held for months. Traders piled into new positions, setting the stage for a big move in either direction. Futures Open Interest Hits Yearly High According to CoinGlass data, open interest in ETH futures jumped sharply over three days, hitting $36.56 billion on Monday. That number marks the highest level since last year. It shows that many traders are using borrowed funds to bet on where Ethereum will go next. Price Tests Multi‑Year Resistance ETH rose about 4.5% in a singl…
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