Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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In the early hours today, CZ Binance leveled sharp criticism at media giants like Reuters, accusing them of recycling identical FUD(Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) narratives to damage his reputation. That move set the tone for a volatile session as XPL and Aster crypto both collapsed under pressure, with .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Plasma XPL $1.08 2.01% Plasma XPL Price $1.08 2.01% /24h V…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday continued a very sluggish upward move after consolidating above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425. Thus, the pound's growth may continue today towards the next corrective levels at 1.3482 and 1.3528. Consolidation below 1.3425 or a rebound from 1.3482 would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a pullback toward the nearest levels. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the last high. The news background for the pound over the past two weeks has been negative, but I believe traders have already fully priced it in. This w…
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On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has revealed the five key Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to keep an eye on in the coming week. Bitcoin Is Observing Developments On These Metrics In a new thread on X, CryptoQuant has discussed about some Bitcoin on-chain alerts that could be to watch amid the consolidation phase in the cryptocurrency’s price. The first indicator shared by the analytics firm is the 60-day change in the market cap of USDT, the number one stablecoin. As is visible in the above chart, the 60-day change in the USDT market cap has continued to sit at a notable positive level recently, implying the stablecoin has been witnessing growth. Stablecoi…
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Traders are lowering their expectations regarding how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months, illustrating how mixed signals from central bank officials are clouding the outlook for monetary policy. In the futures market, the scenario implying just one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2025 and the so-called neutral rate — the optimal rate at which policy neither stimulates nor restrains growth — is now expected to be only partially realized. This stands in sharp contrast with last week, when bets on a 50-basis-point cut by year-end were in demand. A wider range of views on monetary policy expressed by Fed officials in recent days contributed to t…
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Key takeaways The US government shutdown, the first in nearly seven years, heightens political uncertainty ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.Past shutdowns show the US dollar tends to weaken during and after such impasses, with the 2018 episode triggering a 2% decline.Rising unemployment and Trump’s threat of mass layoffs increase bets for Fed rate cuts in October and December 2025.The Eurozone/US policy rate spread is steepening, reinforcing upside momentum in EUR/USD. The US government has officially entered a shutdown in nearly seven years today, 1 October 2025, after Senate Republican and Democratic leaders remained locked in a stalemate over health care subsi…
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Yesterday, the U.S. Congress missed the midnight deadline for funding submissions, which led to the first government shutdown in nearly seven years — and the third under President Donald Trump. The White House Office of Management and Budget ordered agencies to implement their contingency plans for a funding lapse, which will halt government operations except for essential duties, disrupt the work of hundreds of thousands of Americans, and shut down many federal services. Both parties have reached a deadlock over healthcare subsidies. Experts note that the shutdown and its economic consequences could drag on. If it lasts for three weeks, the unemployment rate could rise …
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the market from the level of 1.3441 (yesterday's daily candle close) may possibly continue moving upward with the target at 1.3482 – the 61.8% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward with the target at 1.3417 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: On Wednesday, the market from the level of 1.3…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the market from the level of 1.1732 (yesterday's daily candle close) may continue moving upward with the target at 1.1782 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly roll back downward with the target at 1.1710 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1732 (yesterday's daily candl…
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Tether, the issuer behind the leading stablecoin, USDT, has made headlines by acquiring $1 billion worth of Bitcoin—approximately 8,800 BTC—during the third quarter of this year. While many investors have reacted positively to this significant investment, caution has emerged from industry experts like Jacob King, CEO of SwanDesk, who warns that this move may contribute to what he believes could be the “largest bubble in history.” Bitcoin’s True Value Could Be Below $1,000 In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), King raised serious concerns about the Bitcoin market, claiming that 80-90% of the total buy volume is artificially inflated. He argue…
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October opened with tension in both politics and crypto. The U.S. federal government officially shut down for the first time in six years after Congress failed to agree on a budget deal. The deadlock has rattled global markets, and digital assets are no exception. Bitcoin .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Bitcoin BTC $114,521.87 0.76% Bitcoin BTC Price $114,521.87 0.76% /24h Volume in 24h …
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No matter how challenging the current U.S. government shutdown may seem, these disruptions are temporary. This fact, combined with positive news from pharmaceutical companies, has pushed the S&P 500 back toward record highs. Donald Trump announced that Pfizer will introduce new medications in the U.S. at reduced prices. As long as the company invests in the American economy, it will be exempt from tariffs. The White House is also working with other industry representatives to reach similar agreements. U.S. Stock Index Performance The market hears what it wants to hear. That's why stock indices have continued their rally despite the government shutdown and declin…
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Bitcoin rebounded yesterday but failed to break above the $115,000 mark, which raises questions about its short-term bullish outlook. Ethereum, meanwhile, remained relatively flat, continuing to trade around the same levels as the previous day. A particularly interesting interview with Pavel Durov surfaced yesterday, in which he revealed that he lives off early investments in BTC. Durov shared that he had purchased several thousand BTC at around $700. "In reality, my cryptocurrency investments, primarily in Bitcoin, support my lifestyle. Many believe that my affinity for luxury homes and private jets is funded by Telegram. However, as I've said before, Telegram is a non…
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As the market stabilizes from last week’s correction, BNB is attempting to hold a crucial area that could set the stage for a rally, leading some analysts to suggest that the next leg up could be around the corner. Kazakhstan Adoption Pushes BNB To $1,000 Nearly two weeks after breaking above the $1,000 milestone for the first time, BNB is attempting to hold this key area as support following the recent market pullback. The cryptocurrency has recorded a massive multi-month rally this quarter, surging 54% since the July opening. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has climbed 16% from the start-of-September lows, turning the crucial $800-$900 zone into support befor…
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[Silver] – [Wednesday, October 01, 2025] With the EMA position still in a Golden Cross and the RSI in the Neutral to Bullish zone, then Silver has the potential to appreciate today toward its nearest resistance levels. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 47.840 2. Resistance. 1 : 47.225 3. Pivot : 46.500 4. Support. 1 : 45.855 5. Support. 2 : 45.160 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the XAG/USD price breaks and closes above 47.225, there is potential to test the 47.840 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 47.840 is successfully breached and closed above, Silver has the potential to move up to the 48.565 level. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The u…
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[XPD/USD] – [Wednesday, October 01, 2025] With the RSI Position in the Neutral-Bearish level, then there is potential for XPD/USD to decline today toward its nearest support levels. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1339.48 2. Resistance. 1 : 1306.17 3. Pivot : 1267.27 4. Support. 1 : 1233.96 5. Support. 2 : 1195.06 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 1267.27, Palladium is likely to go down to 1233.96. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1233.96 is breached and closes below, XPD/USD could continue weakening down to 1195.06. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is limited if XPD/USD suddenly strengthens up to th…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.90 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar in line with the prevailing trend. As a result, the pair declined by only 15 pips. During the Asian session today, the Japanese yen showed strength. The dollar came under pressure due to the U.S. government shutdown, triggered by a failure to reach a consensus on funding for the upcoming fiscal period. This, combined with deteriorating global market sentiment, led to a flight from risk and increased demand for safe-haven assets — most notably the ye…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3445 level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line — a confirmation of a valid entry point for buying the pound, which resulted in a 20-pip gain. Today, the British pound continued to rise during the Asian session, benefiting from additional pressure on the U.S. dollar due to the ongoing government shutdown. This shutdown, caused by a lack of consensus on government spending for the upcoming fiscal year, has triggered a wave of concern among investors, prompting them to shift away from dollar-denominated assets in search of safer havens. The pound t…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1730 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downside potential of the pair. For this reason, I chose not to sell the euro. The second test of this level coincided with the MACD entering the oversold zone, which triggered the realization of Scenario #2 (Buy) and resulted in a 25-pip upward move. Yesterday's unexpected drop in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September, as reported by The Conference Board, led to a notable decline in the dollar and a corresponding move higher in the euro. The reported value of 94.2 points …
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The U.S. dollar continues to face challenges, but weak economic data from the eurozone and the United Kingdom are also limiting the upward potential of risk assets. Yesterday, a sharp drop in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September led to dollar weakness and supported the euro. The index came in significantly below analyst expectations, which were more optimistic. This unexpected decline raised fresh concerns about the economic outlook for the United States and, as a result, put pressure on the U.S. dollar. The euro, in contrast, showed resilience and strengthened against the greenback. Today is expected to be a busy day with numerous macroeconomic events that co…
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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to navigate a phase of consolidation, hovering just above $113,000, leaving investors uncertain about the BTC’s next move. This uncertainty has led one analyst, known for accurately predicting BTC’s trajectory during this cycle, to suggest that a new bear market may be closer than many investors anticipate. Bear Market Warning In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the analyst, who goes by the name Doctor Profit, expressed ongoing confidence in his bearish outlook. Since adopting a negative stance in August, he has maintained that Bitcoin is likely to reach the $90,000 to $94,000 range. While he initially expected this t…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release on Wednesday. The most important among them are the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and euro area inflation. It's worth noting that although inflation no longer has a major direct impact on ECB monetary policy decisions, a high reading could significantly reduce the likelihood of further rate cuts — and perhaps even increase the chance of future rate hikes. Therefore, high inflation in the eurozone is considered a positive factor for the euro. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a critical standalone indicator. Also scheduled for release in the U.S. is the ADP employment report. However, trader…
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Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience over the last weekend as it defended the crucial $108,000 support level amid heightened whale selling on leading crypto exchanges around the world, including Binance. Bitcoin Survives September Whale Selling Pressure According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, September was marked by clear fluctuations between Bitcoin’s attempts to rally and exposure to selling pressure by whales and long-term holders. Binance trading volume data confirms this. Arab Chain highlighted Binance’s Exchange Inflow Coins Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator, which showed significant volatility throughout September. The indicator recorded mul…
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair was practically motionless. Although the downtrend on the hourly time frame can be considered complete, as the trendline has been broken, traders are hesitant to open new positions. This market standstill is easily explained by caution ahead of major U.S. labor market and unemployment reports scheduled for release on Friday. However, these key reports might not even be published due to the government shutdown, which begins today. To recap, a shutdown is a temporary suspension of government operations and funding due to the absence of an approved budget for the next fiscal year. Until Republicans and…
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, though the pace throughout the day remained very slow, despite a relatively large number of macroeconomic reports. In Germany alone, reports on retail sales, unemployment, jobless claims, and inflation were released. The data was mixed, but we believe that the inflation figure is currently the most important. In Germany, inflation rose more than forecast, giving grounds to expect a rise in eurozone-wide inflation. Higher inflation across the eurozone makes any new ECB rate cut nearly impossible and even opens up the possibility of future rate hikes. Naturally,…
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Early in the European session, the euro is trading around 1.1738, above the 21 SMA and above the 200 EMA. The euro could continue its rise only if it sharply breaks the downtrend channel formed since September 16 and consolidates above 1.1770. Conversely, if the euro falls below 1.1714, a continuation of the downward movement is expected, potentially reaching the 7/8 Murray level around 1.1596. The Eagle indicator is showing positive signals, so we will look for buying opportunities whenever the price consolidates above the 8/8 Murray level. Any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to enter long positions. This week, data releases will bring strong market volatility, s…
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