Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11823 tópicos neste fórum
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"Strong economies support strong currencies." This fundamental analysis principle remains valid. While tariffs and Donald Trump's hardline anti-immigration policies are expected to weigh on U.S. GDP in 2026, the "big and beautiful" tax cut legislation will only sugarcoat the damage. In contrast, Europe is set to benefit from rising defense spending and fiscal stimulus from Germany — factors supporting the ongoing uptrend in EUR/USD. That said, no trend exists without corrections. From 2022 to 2024, the U.S. dollar dominated the Forex market, driven by the exceptional performance of the American economy and stock indexes, which considerably outshone their European counterp…
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Overview: There are five developments to note. First, the US and China will have initial trade talks this weekend in Switzerland. Second, the PBOC cut its key rate by 10 bp and cut reserve requirements by 0.5%. It also announced several other measures to boost lending/relending. Third, German factory orders were stronger than expected, perhaps bolstered by attempts to move ahead of US tariffs. Fourth, after last week’s ruction, most Asian emerging market currencies continued to pullback. The exceptions today were the South Korean won and Philippine peso. Fifth, there has been little market impact from India and Pakistan exchanging strikes. The Indian rupee is weaker (~0.5…
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Overview: While the US dollar is a little softer today against the G10 currencies, it remains mostly within Wednesday's range. The yen is a notable exception. It made a new high for the week despite the contraction in Q1 25 GDP. Most emerging market currencies are firmer. The markets have not reacted to a statement from President Trump that his administration lacks the capacity to negotiate with all the parties so in the next 2-3 weeks, the US will simply set the tariff rates. Asia Pacific equities ended the week on a mixed note. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.6%, the fourth daily advance this week. US index futures are up about 0.25%. European bonds are rallying. The …
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Overview: Moody’s took away the US AAA rating before the weekend. It was the last of the big three rating agencies to do so. We do not think there is fresh information content in its belated decision, but participants in Asia and Europe have reacted by selling the US dollar and US assets. The 30-year bond yield is above 5% and the 10-year yield is near 4.50%. The S&P 500, which rose by over 5.25% last week, its second-best week of the year, is set to snap a five-day advance. It is poised to gap lower. The greenback is broadly lower. Nearly all the G10 currencies are at least 0.5% higher against the dollar but the New Zealand and Canadian dollars are trailing. Nearly a…
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The Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6415 in the North American session, down 0.44% on the day. Australia's CPI remains at 2.4% Australia's inflation rate remained unchanged in April at 2.4% y/y for a third straight month, matching the lowest rate since Nov. 2024. The reading was slightly higher than the market estimate of 2.3% but remained within the central bank's inflation target of 2%-3%. Trimmed mean inflation, the central bank's preferred indicator for underlying inflation, edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in March. The inflation report was mildly disappointing in that inflation was hotter than expected. Under…
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Can You Time Month-End Forex Rebalancing Flows? Understanding FX Hedging and Dollar Demand Every month, as the calendar approaches its final days, professional forex traders and global asset managers pay close attention to potential month-end rebalancing flows. Driven largely by movements in equity market, especially U.S. stocks, these flows can influence currency markets in ways that create both opportunity and risk. But the key question remains: Can you actually time these month-end forex rebalancing flows? How Equity Performance Drives Forex Rebalancing When U.S. equities rise or fall during the month, institutional investors such as pension funds, sovereign wealt…
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Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have failed to find relief despite favorable Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data in the United States. According to data from CoinGecko, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization dipped by nearly 5% on Friday, May 30th. However, an industry expert has explained why the US macroeconomic landscape might not get better for the crypto and other risk asset markets over the next few months. This interesting projection suggests that the future looks a tad uncertain for the Bitcoin price and the rest of the cryptocurrency market. Why Fed Rate Cuts Are Not Coming Soon In a new post on the social media platform X, Jim Bianc…
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Dogecoin started a fresh decline from the $0.2250 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating losses and might recover if it clears $0.20. DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.220 and $0.20 levels. The price is trading below the $0.20 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $0.1910 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start a fresh increase if it clears the $0.20 resistance zone. Dogecoin Price Holds Support Dogecoin price started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the $0.2450 zone, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined…
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As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover near its all-time high (ATH) of $111,814, signs of a reset in the derivatives market are emerging. One such indicator is the Binance Liquidation Delta, which is showing a consistent pattern of large-scale long position liquidations. Bitcoin Late-Long Positions Get Wiped Out According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by analyst Amr Taha, Binance’s BTC derivatives market is currently experiencing a significant reset. The Binance Liquidation Delta reveals that liquidations of long positions, sometimes exceeding $40 million, are repeatedly disrupting the market. For the uninitiated, the Binance Liquidation Delta measures the diffe…
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The European Union has selected 13 new strategic raw materials projects outside its borders as part of its push to secure critical mineral supplies, with sites in Canada, Greenland, Ukraine and other countries. The initiative comes as the bloc seeks to reduce its reliance on China, which tightened export controls on rare earth magnets in April. “We must reduce our dependencies on all countries, particularly on a number of countries like China,” European Commissioner for Industry, Thierry Breton, said during the announcement. “The export bans increase our will to diversify.” The new projects are backed by the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, adopted in …
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Metals investor Cobalt Holdings has dropped plans of an initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange, dashing investor hopes of what would’ve been the biggest mining IPO since 2022. The company previously aimed to raise as much as $230 million through the offering and use most of the funds to buy 6,000 tonnes of physical cobalt from Glencore (LON: GLEN) at a discount. The IPO launch represents Cobalt Holding’s strategic play to capitalize on a struggling market that has been in three consecutive years over oversupply despite healthy demand, which drove the metal’s price down by 75% over the past three years. The company, headed by mining entrepr…
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Data shows the 14-day Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped into the oversold region. Here’s what this could mean for the asset. Bitcoin RSI Has Breached Below The 30 Mark In a new post on X, analyst Axel Adler Jr has talked about the latest trend in the RSI of Bitcoin. The “RSI” refers to an indicator from technical analysis (TA) that measures the speed and magnitude of changes occurring in any given asset’s price over a specific period. In the current case, the period is 14 days. This metric is generally used for spotting oversold or overbought conditions for the asset. When the RSI is greater than 70, it can be a sign that the price is heating up and may …
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Crypto exchange Coinbase announced that it will launch its Coinbase One Card later this fall. To be offered in partnership with American Express, the card will provide up to 4% Bitcoin cashback, and zero trading fees (with a spread for the first $500 traded per month), among other goodies. According to the Coinbase One Card website, you can sign up for early access, and you’ll be notified when they start receiving applications. There are also no foreign transaction fees, and you can repay your balance using your linked bank account or crypto on Coinbase. Given the current context of increased current adoption, payment solutions like these are becoming the norm. And Thi…
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Barrick Mining (TSX: ABX; NYSE: B) will appeal a Malian court decision appointing Soumana Makadji, a former health minister, as the provisional administrator of its Loulo-Gounkoto operation for six months. “We take note of the decision, the appointment of an administrator whom we know well. It is a court decision. We will appeal,” West Africa director Mamadou Samaké told Reuters. Since January, Loulo-Gounkoto, one of Africa’s largest gold complexes, has sat idle amid a standoff triggered by Mali’s 2023 mining code, which raised tax rates and expanded state equity participation. In November 2024, Malian authorities blocked Barrick’s gold exports and seized abo…
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PayPal Holdings Inc. has rolled out a way for US merchants to accept crypto payments. The company set a flat fee of 0.99% per transaction. That’s a hefty cut compared with the near 2.99% merchants often pay on cross‑border credit card sales. According to PayPal, businesses can save up to 90% on transaction costs when buyers pay with digital coins. Flat Fees For Crypto Payments Based on reports, every sale automatically converts crypto into fiat or stablecoins when the merchant chooses. Companies can pick from more than 100 tokens under its “Pay with Crypto” feature. Bitcoin and Ethereum lead the list. Other picks include USDT, XRP, BNB, Solana and PayPal’s own PYUSD. …
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The crypto market saw another tense session on Wednesday as Bitcoin briefly dumped to $115,000 before recovering hours later back to the key $118K support level: a battle that’s been going on for days now. Traders are watching closely as BTC holds this level with its teeth, despite increasing macro pressure. While the broader market showed fatigue, the question now is: what’s the best crypto to buy in this environment? BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.35T24h7d30d1yAll time The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it would not cut interest rates for July, holding steady between 4.15% and 4.25%. The decision came despite public pressure from the Trump administration, which…
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United States government officials are ready to guarantee critical minerals producers a minimum price for their product in a bid to raise domestic output and reduce China’s market dominance, Reuters reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. The strategy would build on a recent public-private partnership between the US Department of Defense and MP Materials (NYSE: MP) to establish a domestic supply chain for rare earth magnets. The deal – announced July 10 – included a 10-year off-take deal that sets a price floor of $110 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium materials. In a previously unreported July 24 meeting, US trade advisor Peter Navarr…
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Bitcoin has broken below the critical $115K support level, reaching a new local low of approximately $112,700. After spending over two weeks consolidating in a tight range, BTC has now exited this phase with bearish momentum, raising concerns across the market. Traders and analysts are closely watching to see if Bitcoin can find strong demand around current levels to stabilize the price and prevent a deeper correction. Key data from CryptoQuant reveals that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are selling their Bitcoin at a loss, a typical pattern observed during retail capitulation events. Over the past 24 hours, a significant volume of BTC has been sent to exchanges at negative …
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According to a report by digital asset firm CoinShares, Bitcoin could see a surge of more than 65% from today’s price if it wins just a small slice of major monetary pools. At its current level just above $113,500, that jump would take BTC up to about $189,000. It’s a simple idea with big implications. Potential Market Share Based on reports, global liquidity—known as M2—is sitting at roughly $127 trillion, while all mined gold adds up to almost $24 trillion. CoinShares applies a so-called Total Addressable Market (TAM) model to those figures. If Bitcoin captures 2% of global M2 and 5% of gold’s market cap, the sum points to a $189,000 price tag. It doesn’t assume BTC…
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The euro is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1579, up 0.05% on the day. Eurozone Services PMI shows weak expansion Eurozone Services PMI for June showed slight expansion, rising to 51.0 from 50.5 in May but missing the market estimate of 51.2. This was the fastest growth in services since March, which indicates that the services sector remains in weak shape. The European Central Bank held the cash rate at 2.0% last month after seven consecutive rate cuts in which the central bank chopped 200 basis points. At the meeting, President Lagarde said that the risk to growth remained tilted to the downside as global tension…
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Fortuna Mining (NYSE: FSM; TSX: FVI) has boosted the mineral resource count for its Diamba Sud gold project in Senegal ahead of a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) later this year. The Diamba Sud project now contains 724,000 ounces of gold in indicated resources, a 53% increase on the previous estimate since year-end 2024. The inferred resource also rose by 93% to 285,000 gold ounces. The resource covers seven deposits — Area A, Area D, Karakara, Western Splay, Kassassoko, Southern Arc and Moungoundi — based on drilling data from a total of 1,178 diamond and reverse circulation holes completed since 2019. The update incorporates over 31,000 metres of drill…
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Компания Strategy (ранее MicroStrategy) объявила, что за прошлую неделю приобрела дополнительный биткоин ($BTC) на сумму $2,46 млрд. С 28 июля по 3 августа компания купила еще 21 021 токен, доведя общий запас до 628 791 $BTC (что сейчас примерно оценивается в $72,18 млрд). Это третья по величине покупка в долларовом эквиваленте за всю историю накопления компании топ-крипты за последние пять лет. И это отличные новости для лучших криптопресейлов лета. Когда $BTC получает поддержку крупных институциональных игроков, это обычно поднимает общий рыночный настрой и вызывает новый интерес к проектам на ранних стадиях. Стратегия Сэйлора: покупать и хранить $BTC в течение 21 год…
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Solana opened August trading in a tight range just above $165. The coin has hovered near that level after a sharp run-up. Based on reports, big holders rotating profits and deeper DeFi ties are reshaping the outlook for SOL. Solana Holds Critical Support Zone According to on-chain data, SOL has formed what looks like a Golden Cross on its daily chart, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day line. A pullback to around $160 has lined up with both the 200 EMA and a key trendline. Analysis shows that the $161–$166 area has become a firm floor. If buyers defend that pocket, SOL could climb toward the first barrier near $189 and then test $206. Analyst M…
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Equinox Gold’s (TSX, NYSE-A: EQX) Castle Mountain stage two expansion in California has joined the US FAST-41 program, setting a solid federal permitting timeline that could reduce the development time by years. Its FAST-41 status now puts the project on track to complete federal approvals in 16 months, clearing the way for a construction decision by the end of next year, Equinox said Monday. “Castle Mountain is a high-quality growth opportunity for Equinox Gold in a tier-one jurisdiction,” CEO Darren Hall said in a release. “With FAST-41 status in place, we’ve commenced study updates and optimization work to align with the schedule and fast-track our construction…
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Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture as its textbook ascending triangle converges with a tight trading range. Consolidation near key support and resistance levels sets the stage for a potential breakout or breakdown, making the next moves crucial for market momentum. Ascending Triangle Signals Strength Alpha Crypto Signal, in a recent post, highlighted that Bitcoin is currently shaping a textbook ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart — a well-recognized bullish continuation setup. The analyst explained that price action is consolidating just under the horizontal resistance zone at $122,500, while a series of higher lows continues to form along the rising tr…
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