Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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EUR/USD The euro made a false breakout above the daily MACD line (gray square). Formally, it is believed that the dollar strengthened due to risk-off moves by investors following the downward revision of last year's employment data. From March 2024 to March 2025, 900,000 fewer jobs were created, and now this is being seen as a crisis situation. But this is merely a pretext, as the dollar had already been strengthening since the morning. We believe investors continue to close positions in anticipation of a hawkish stance from the Fed at the September 17 meeting. The daily trading volume was slightly above the average of the past month and a half. The euro is now targeting…
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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to defend the $112,000 support level following days of tepid price action, unable to give a clear indication about the potential direction of its next move. Latest exchange data from Binance shows a recent dip in whale activity, suggesting BTC likely avoided another massive sell-off. Bitcoin Defends $112,000 Against Whale Sell-Off According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, recent data from the Binance crypto exchange shows that there was a sudden spike in whale activity on the exchange on September 7, when the BTC: Exchange Whale Ratio surged to 0.55. However, this surge was quickly followed by a decline in the metric, …
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Ethereum price started a fresh decline below the $4,450 zone. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for a fresh increase if it clears $4,380. Ethereum is still struggling to recover above the $4,400 zone. The price is trading below $4,380 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,340 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a recovery wave if it settles above $4,350 and $4,380. Ethereum Price Faces Hurdles Ethereum price started a recovery wave after it formed a base above the $4,260 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $4,320 and $4,350 resistance l…
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In a new market breakdown published today, crypto analyst CryptoInsightUK argues that XRP has reached a “liquidity flashpoint” that could accelerate price discovery toward the mid-$4 range once key resistance is reclaimed. He anchors the call to a cluster of liquidity sitting above the $3.40 area and an improving relative-strength backdrop versus Bitcoin, Ethereum and even gold, while cautioning that the US CPI print due tomorrow could inject short-term volatility in either direction. Be aware that tomorrow there is CPI news coming from the US and it probably, most likely at this point in the market, brings with it some sort of volatility,” he said, adding that while the…
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XRP price gained pace for a move above the $2.920 resistance. The price is now correcting some gains and might find bids near $2.920. XRP price is facing hurdles and struggling to clear the $3.00 resistance. The price is now trading above $2.920 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $2.9650 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to rise if it stays above the $2.920 zone. XRP Price Remains Supported for Gains XRP price managed to stay above the $2.8320 level and started a fresh increase, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price climbed above the $2.920 and…
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Solana started a fresh increase above the $215 zone. SOL price is now consolidating above $212 and might aim for more gains above the $220 zone. SOL price started a fresh upward move above the $205 and $212 levels against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $212 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $216 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend gains if it clears the $220 resistance zone. Solana Price Eyes Upside Break Solana price started a decent increase after it found support near the $202 zone, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed above the $208…
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday showed a downward move for inexplicable reasons. Recall that the annual NonFarm Payrolls report was supposed to be released that day—a report that initially bore nothing good for the US dollar. In the end, the annual Nonfarm figure was revised down by almost 1 million jobs. So, the dollar had excellent chances to continue its decline yesterday. But instead, we saw it rise. It's important to note that trading is taking place on the 5-minute chart. In this trading style (intraday), trades rarely depend on the nature of macroeconomic events. In other words, two trading signals were formed yeste…
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded lower on Tuesday, but by the end of the day, the British pound lost much less than the euro. Thus, the pound's position remains much more promising compared to the euro. On the second trading day of the week, there were no important events in the UK, while in the US, the annual Non-Farm Payrolls report was published. Although the total Nonfarm figure for the last 12 months was revised downward by 911,000, this didn't really upset traders. We would say that the report was largely ignored. Nevertheless, we believe that the negative fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to build up. Over the…
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Macroeconomic Report Review: Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled again for Wednesday. Only the US Producer Price Index (PPI) stands out. Last month, this indicator posted a sensational figure of +0.9% against a forecast of 0.3%, which triggered a strong market reaction. However, in most cases, the actual value for this indicator differs little from the estimates. Therefore, today, a market reaction is only possible in the case of a second consecutive strong deviation. No important publications are scheduled today for the Eurozone, Germany, or the UK. Fundamental Events Review: There is absolutely nothing to highlight among fundamental events on Wednesda…
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Since a retest on its key medium-term “Expanding Wedge” range support on 22 August 2025, the AUD/USD has staged a minor bullish reversal and rallied by 3.2% (low to high) to print an intraday high of 0.6620 on Tuesday, 9 September 2025, on the backdrop of a broad-based weaker US dollar against other major currencies in anticipation of a Fed dovish pivot. Read more on US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal Reserve …
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[AUD/JPY] – [Wednesday, September 10, 2025] Today, AUD/JPY has the potential to strengthen towards its nearest resistance level due to the EMA Golden Cross condition and RSI being in the Neutral-Bullish area. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 64.18. 2. Resistance. 1 : 63.47. 3. Pivot : 62.92. 4. Support. 1 : 62.21. 5. Support. 2 : 61.66. Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the AUD/JPY price manages to break and close above 97.27, it has the potential to test the next resistance at 97.52. Momentum Extension Bias: If 97.52 is broken and closed above, AUD/JPY may continue its strengthening towards 97.78.Level Invalidation / Bias Revision The upside…
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[Crude Oil] – [Wednesday, September 10, 2025] With the EMA(50) and EMA(200) forming a Golden Cross and the RSI in the Neutral-Bullish area, this could support a bullish bias for #CL throughout the day. Key Levels Resistance 2: 64.18 Resistance 1: 63.47 Pivot: 62.92 Support 1: 62.21 Support 2: 61.66Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Crude Oil breaks and closes above 63.47, it has the potential to continue strengthening to 64.18. Momentum Extension Bias: If 64.18 is broken and closed above, #CL could further extend gains to 64.73. Level Invalidation / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if #CL weakens, breaks, and closes below 61.66…
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The US dollar has actively regained some of the positions it lost at the beginning of the week. This indicates that traders are taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of important fundamental data. It is clear that the market is influenced by a range of factors that could, in the long term, exert significant pressure on the US currency. Chief among these is the ongoing debate about the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Despite inflation showing signs of rising, the Fed is set to lower interest rates at the upcoming meeting in September of this year. Much will depend on today's US inflation data, which we will discuss in more detail later on. During the European…
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After retesting the range lows, Bitcoin (BTC) has closed the week above a key area, momentarily preventing a breakdown to lower levels. Some market watchers suggested that reclaiming the local range highs this week will set the stage for another leg up, but an analyst warned of potential volatility in the coming days. Bitcoin Holds Crucial Weekly Support As the market moves sideways, Bitcoin has continued to trade within its local range between the $108,250-$111,140 levels since the start of the month. The cryptocurrency has shown mixed signals since the second half of August, failing to hold the crucial $109,000 level during the previous week. Analyst Rekt Capital ass…
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Where does the US economy stand? Judging by the cooling labor market, it is approaching a recession. The acceleration of August inflation will allow talk of stagflation. Both are bad for the S&P 500. So why is the stock market rising? A combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus alongside improved corporate reports usually emerges as the US economy exits a downturn. Under such conditions, the broad equity index typically soars. Investors can afford to keep buying the dips. A record negative BLS revision to employment data for the 12 months through March—down by 911,000—convinced investors of labor market weakness. If non-farm payrolls grew by 76,000 per month instead…
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Yesterday, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.27%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.37%. The industrial Dow Jones strengthened by 0.43%. The indices reached record highs on hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates to counter slowing employment. Although most S&P 500 stocks fell, the index advanced thanks to gains in all major technology companies except Apple Inc., whose shares slipped by 1.5% after the launch of the iPhone 17. Bond prices broke a four-day winning streak. Oil rose after an Israeli strike in Qatar reignited concerns of escalating tensions in the Middle East. Following new data pointing to a slowdown in the labor ma…
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Chainlink’s price is wrestling with key support near $21, a level that has drawn heavy attention from traders and institutions alike. Chainlink (LINK) was down 2% to $22.30 as selling pressure weighed on the token. The move comes at a time when derivatives activity in the asset has jumped sharply, raising both expectations of a rebound and the risk of further losses. Institutional Pathway Through 21X The network’s importance was reinforced after the launch of 21X, Europe’s first regulated tokenized securities platform. Approved under European rules, 21X connects financial institutions to blockchain infrastructure using Chainlink’s technology. CEO Max Heinzle described …
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe price test at 1.1752 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly down from the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Despite the absence of key economic data from the United States, the dollar was able to partially recover its previously lost ground. This indicates that market participants chose to take a cautious stance, refraining from active trading. Nevertheless, such restraint may be misleading. Market conditions are still shaped by several factors that could put considerable pressure on the US currency in the future. Fo…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe price test at 1.3573 occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the pound and resulted in a drop toward the target level of 1.3533. The pound declined against the dollar after buyers failed to hold the weekly high. This cautious approach, typical in the market ahead of the release of key economic data, is due not only to the desire to avoid unjustified risks but also to an understanding of the potential impact of this data on the future dynamics of the currency pair. US economic data—whether inflation, employment, or industria…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 146.74 occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar and resulted in growth toward the target level of 147.48. Despite the lack of reports and strong demand for the yen in the first half of the day, things changed very quickly. Some market participants revised their expectations regarding the Fed's next steps and began to take profits. Today's driver for the pair will be the US price growth figures, though this data is scheduled for the second half of the day. For this reason, during the European session, not…
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Bitcoin yesterday once again climbed to the $113,200 level but quickly slipped back, indicating a lack of active buyers above this range. Apparently, many are hesitant to push higher and are taking a wait-and-see approach. This is also confirmed by Santiment data, which notes that sentiment among crypto traders has deteriorated significantly. The crowd is now expecting BTC to fall below $100,000, and ETH below $3,500. Such a shift in sentiment, however, is nothing unusual for the volatile world of cryptocurrencies. After a period of strong growth and optimism, correction and pessimism are usually inevitable. It's a kind of pendulum swinging between hope and fear, causing…
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Gold prices rose again today and are near their historic highs, as traders prepare to assess US data that could confirm the need for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Gold prices exceeded $3,643 per ounce after peaking above $3,674 on Tuesday, when a preliminary data revision showed that the number of employed workers is likely to be revised downward by a record 911,000. The Fed will set monetary policy next week after the publication of US producer and consumer inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday, which will also influence its decision. Weak economic indicators in recent months—particularly slowing GDP growth and a decline in employment gains—have increased expectations …
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Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Advance Most Read: US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal Reserve Asian stock markets went up on Wednesday, following a similar trend on Wall Street. This happened because traders are becoming more confident that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next week, as the US job market seems to be weakening. In Japan, the Nikkei stock average rose by 0.8%, while South Korea's KOSPI increased by 1.7%. Taiwan's stock market also did well, climbing 1.5% to reach a new all-time high. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 1.3%, and mainland Chinese blue-chip stocks rose by 0.3%. The Bank of Japan is expected to announce it…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the market may start moving upward from the 1.1707 level (yesterday's daily close) toward the target at 1.1742 – upper fractal (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue rising toward 1.1788 – upper fractal (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the 1.1707 level (yesterday's daily close), the price may start moving upward toward 1.1742 – upper fra…
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The dollar has stabilized ahead of the release of important US inflation data, starting today with the producer price inflation (PPI) report, and to be followed tomorrow by consumer inflation figures (CPI). How might these affect the dollar and the financial markets overall? Recall that the market already has well-founded expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in response to the extremely challenging situation in the labor market. It is assumed that the key rate will be cut by 0.25% as a matter of course, but there remains a significant probability—currently at 8%—of a 0.50% cut. For the most part, a 0.25% cut is already priced into the value of US …
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