Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11730 tópicos neste fórum
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Tuesday, from the level of 1.1608 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving downward toward the target of 1.1575 — the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly rebound upward with the target of testing the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1592 (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart) Comprehensive Analysis: indicator analysis — down;volume analysis — down;candlestick analysis — down;trend analysis — down;Bollinger Bands — down;weekly chart — down.Overall conclusion: a downward trend. Alternative scenario:From the level of 1.1608 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price…
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U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he has decided on a candidate for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. It is no secret that the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, has displeased Trump by refusing to change the Fed's policy under pressure and by aggressively lowering interest rates. Trump knows what he is doing—high interest rates on bonds place an excessive burden on the budget. Interest payment expenses have sharply increased and already exceed defense spending, accounting for nearly 17% of the federal budget this year. The U.S. Congressional Budget Committee revised its debt forecast after passing the "big beautiful legislative bill," increasing it to…
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After a brief period of consolidation and a bullish uptick to around $93,000 at the end of last week, the Bitcoin price has once again dipped toward the $85,000 mark, recording a significant 7% drop on Monday, according to data from CoinGecko. Market expert Shanaka Anslem has pointed to what he refers to as “the weapon” behind this latest crash: Japanese government bonds. Expert Warns Of Unraveling Yen Carry Trade In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the expert highlighted that the yield on Japan’s 10-year bonds reached 1.877 percent on December 1, 2025—the highest level since June 2008—while the 2-year yield hit 1 percent, a benchmark not seen sin…
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Virtually all economists and traders are convinced that a reduction in U.S. interest rates in December is unavoidable. This is what has been causing the U.S. dollar to weaken in recent weeks. Yesterday, even the usually hawkish economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. published a new report stating that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates this month. Previously, the bank had believed that policymakers would postpone lowering borrowing costs until January. A team of experts led by U.S. Chief Economist Michael Feroli said that comments from key Federal Reserve officials — particularly John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York —…
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After five days of growth, the S&P 500 took a step back amidst a renewed decline in cryptocurrencies and rising yields in the global debt market. Bitcoin serves as a canary in the coal mine, an indicator of risk appetite, so a peak in BTC/USD may create some challenges for American stocks. This is compounded by rumors regarding the resumed normalization of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. Dynamics of US Stock Indices While the BoJ has been slow to raise unterest rates, financial markets remained calm. However, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish rhetoric and the Japanese government's intention to increase bond issuance to finance a fiscal stimulus package have rattled invest…
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While the U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against a number of risk assets, President Donald Trump has announced that he has decided on a candidate for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, making it clear what he expects from his nominee regarding interest rates. "Yes, I know who I will choose," Trump told reporters, without revealing his pick. "We will announce it soon." According to many media reports, it is Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council and Trump's chief economic adviser, who is being considered as the likely successor to Powell. It's worth recalling that Trump has repeatedly criticized current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for f…
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Bitcoin updated its price to $83,800 yesterday but then made a strong rebound back to around $87,000, where it is currently trading. Ethereum also managed to recover some positions after a significant sell-off. Meanwhile, it has been reported that the National Bank of Kazakhstan has formed a separate crypto reserve within its gold and foreign currency assets and plans to invest up to $300 million in crypto assets. Earlier, President Tokayev signed a law that substantially liberalizes mining and cryptocurrency transactions in Kazakhstan. According to this law, the mandatory requirement to sell mined cryptocurrency through the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) …
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The biggest news today comes from Bitcoin price, which slid again, kicking off another chaotic round of crypto market. People are bouncing between charts, rumors, and politics as the Trump buzz heats up ahead of his 2 PM announcement. And in the middle of all this, Vanguard and its Bitcoin and crypto ETFs access is becoming real. Some of these had people thinking that things would never happen, especially with the Vanguard known stance towards Bitcoin and crypto. These moving pieces are crashing into each other at once, and are yet to show up in the Bitcoin price, and are setting the tone of today’s crypto market news. …
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Analysis of Transactions and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test at 155.04 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. A weak report on the U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the high likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates acted as catalysts for the Japanese yen's rise against the dollar. The published ISM manufacturing index data from the U.S. came in significantly below analysts' expectations, raising concerns about the slowing economic growth of the largest economy in the world. This weak report undermined investor con…
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Analysis of Transactions and Trading Tips for the British PoundThe test of the price at 1.3235 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and missed a good upward movement. However, short positions on the bounce from 1.3264 allowed for a decent profit of about 30 pips from the market. A weak report on the U.S. ISM manufacturing index increased pressure on the U.S. dollar and strengthened the British pound. The published data showed a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, which fell short of analysts' expectations for growth. This decline in U.S. manufacturin…
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Analysis of Transactions and Trading Tips for the EuroThe test of the price at 1.1639 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test at 1.1639 shortly thereafter coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, allowing the execution of Scenario #2 to sell euros, resulting in a decline of more than 20 pips in the pair. Pressure on the US dollar increased immediately after the release of the disappointing ISM Manufacturing Index. Contrary to expectations, the indicator characterizing the state of the manufacturing sector showed a decline, signalin…
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Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.53%, while the Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.38%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.90%. Asian indices rose today, recovering from Monday's sell-off, during which cryptocurrencies were the leaders in declines among global risk assets. Japanese government bonds increased in price after a closely watched auction of 10-year bonds attracted strong demand. The MSCI World Index rose by 0.5% before losing some ground. Futures for European stocks changed little, while futures for American stocks slightly declined during Asian trading. Bitcoin increased amid a volatile session following a drop of more than 5% on M…
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Yesterday, several entry points in the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.3211 and planned to make decisions based on it. The decline and formation of a false breakout around 1.3211 provided an entry point for buying the pound, resulting in the pair rising by more than 20 pips. In the afternoon, active selling around 1.3265 prompted the opening of short positions, sending the pound back to the support area at 1.3211. To open long positions on GBP/USD, it is required:A weak ISM report on the U.S. manufacturing index increased pressure on the U.S. dollar and stren…
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Yesterday, only one entry point in the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1613 and planned to make decisions based on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.1613 led to an entry point for selling the euro, but the pair did not experience a significant drop. In the afternoon, after a sharp rise in the euro, it fell short by a couple of pips from testing 1.1655, leaving me without short positions from that level. To open long positions on EUR/USD, it is required:Weak data on the ISM U.S. manufacturing index increased pressure on the U.S. do…
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Bitcoin continues to fluctuate. Yesterday's update, hitting $84,000, was met with active buying; however, how long this will last is a rather complicated question. The market remains in a bearish trend, and every good correction is perceived as an opportunity to sell. Meanwhile, shares of the Strategy company plummeted by 12% yesterday after it announced the creation of a $1.44 billion reserve to support dividend payments on preferred shares and interest on outstanding debt. The company also stated that it purchased an additional 130 BTC last week. It is clear that investors reacted extremely negatively to the news, fearing that the creation of such a large reserve indic…
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A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how the Tom Demark (TD) Sequential has just given a buy signal on the weekly XRP price chart. TD Sequential Is Printing A Weekly Buy Signal For XRP In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a TD Sequential signal that has appeared on the weekly XRP chart. The “TD Sequential” refers to an indicator from technical analysis (TA) that’s generally used for locating points of probable reversal in a given asset’s price. It involves two phases: the setup and countdown. In the first phase, the “setup,” the indicator counts up candles of the same polarity (that is, whether red or green) up to nine. Once these nine candles,…
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The dollar remained under pressure following the release of another series of weak fundamental data from the U.S. Weak figures from the ISM manufacturing index intensified pressure on the U.S. dollar in the second half of the day. The index, which reflects business activity in the manufacturing sector, unexpectedly declined, signaling a slowdown in industry growth. This, in turn, sparked concerns regarding the overall prospects of the American economy. Investors, worried about potential growth slowdowns, began to offload dollar assets, which directly impacted the currency's exchange rate. Dollar sales also increased amid expectations that the Federal Reserve might continu…
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[Silver] Although both EMAs are still in a Golden Cross formation, but with the RSI being in the Neutral-Bearish area along with the appearance of a Bearish Divergence strongly indicates that a correction is likely to occur soon for Silver. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 60.262 2. Resistance. 1 : 59.108 3. Pivot : 57.637 4. Support. 1 : 56.483 5. Support. 2 : 55.012 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price of Silver declines and breaks below 57.637, it has the potential to continue its decline to 56.483. Momentum Extension Bias: If 56.483 is also broken, Silver could continue its decline down to 55.012. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The …
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[Platinum] Although the RSI(14) is in the Neutral-Bearish level, but with the position of EMA(50) above EMA(200), forming a Golden Cross, indicates that buyers remain dominant in Platinum. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 1759.7 2. Resistance. 1 : 1715.3 3. Pivot : 1689.2 4. Support. 1 : 1644.8 5. Support. 2 : 1618.7 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Platinum breaks out and closes above 1689.2, it may continue strengthening up to 1715.3. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1715.3 is broken, #PLF has the potential to test the level at 1759.7. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if the price of Platinum breaks bel…
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Avalanche (AVAX) is coiling for a massive move. A potent Wolfe Wave pattern is forming alongside a test of a key weekly trendline. This structural confluence signals that the market is reaching a point of maximum compression, indicating that a significant directional breakout is imminent. Wolfe Wave Formation Signals Strong Future Move According to a recent technical analysis by BeLaunch, AVAX is shaping a notable Wolfe Wave pattern, a formation known for sparking strong directional moves once completed. This developing structure reflects tightening price action and growing pressure within the market, hinting that a significant breakout could be on the horizon. At the …
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Solana started a fresh decline below the $135 zone. SOL price is now consolidating losses below $130 and might decline further below $125. SOL price started a fresh decline below $135 and $130 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $130 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $136 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start a recovery wave if the bulls defend $125 or $120. Solana Price Dips Further Solana price failed to remain stable above $140 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL declined below the $135 and $132 support lev…
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In a turbulent market marked by falling prices, Bitcoin (BTC) has once again dipped below the $85,000 threshold, driven by growing speculation that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, may be on the verge of selling some of its Bitcoin holdings. This intensified after a recent interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, during which Strategy CEO Phong Le was directly asked whether the company would consider parting with any of its BTC holdings. While the firm’s former CEO, Michael Saylor, has consistently maintained a resolute stance against selling, Le’s comments have raised concerns about potential sales in the future. Is A Bitcoin Sell-Off Imminent? Le indic…
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Swiss and German law enforcement just dropped the hammer on Cryptomixer.io, one of the largest Bitcoin “tumblers” in the wild. Multiple agencies, including Zurich police and Germany’s BKA, dismantled the platform last week. https://twitter.com/Europol/status/1995422096126603419?t=15HImuXefUaxyuGy6VXrww&s=19 Cryptomixer had been mixing coins since 2016, allegedly shuffling billions of euros in potentially dirty Bitcoin. By blending funds across users and randomizing payouts, it masked where coins came from and where they ended up — a classic setup for laundering proceeds from ransomware, drug dealing, fraud, and other shady business. The takedown was sweeping: autho…
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XRP price started a fresh decline below $2.10. The price is now struggling and faces resistance near the $2.050 pivot level. XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.050 zone. The price is now trading below $2.050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.120 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below $2.00. XRP Price Dips Again XRP price attempted a recovery wave above $2.150 but failed to continue higher, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price started a fresh decline below $2.10 and $2.050. There was a move below the $2.00 …
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. In the Eurozone, consumer price indices and unemployment rates will be released. These are important reports, but only unexpected and significant figures can provoke a reaction from traders. The European Central Bank has concluded its easing cycle with a 99% probability, so only a strong increase or decrease in inflation could prompt it to reconsider its rate plans. In the UK and the U.S., the calendars are practically empty. Fundamental Event Analysis: Very few fundamental events are planned for Tuesday. Overnight, there was an expected speech from Federal…
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