Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Bitcoin (BTC USD) price closed September near $113,400, slipping from an intraday high of $114,842 as trading wrapped up on September 30. The late-month pause came as gold pushed to fresh all-time highs, renewing debate over whether Bitcoin might follow bullion’s lead into Q4. Gold’s surge set the tone for the close. As per Reuters report, Spot XAU/USD touched roughly $3,871 per ounce on Sept. 30, lifted by US government shutdown concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve may lean toward policy easing. Market watchers say a softer yield backdrop could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, in the weeks ahead. DISCOVER: Top 20 Crypto to Buy in 2025 CME Gap at…
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Most Read: Taking a step back – key long-term market charts and levels AUD/USD has risen 0.6% from its Tuesday low of 0.6572 as the US Dollar continued its slide. The Dollar struggle is partly linked to a potential US Government shutdown with Congress needing to agree to temporary funding before 04h00 GMT on Wednesday. RBA Rate Hold Boosts Aussie Dollar The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep its main interest rate, known as the cash rate, unchanged at 3.6%. This decision was expected by the markets and indicates a more cautious approach by the central bank. This careful stance is due to concerns that overall inflation is starting to creep up toward the top…
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The Japanese yen continues to gain intraday strength. Despite mixed views expressed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its recently released Summary of Opinions, investors appear convinced that the central bank is leaning toward a path of monetary policy normalization. This perception is helping to offset weak domestic indicators such as industrial production and retail sales, lending additional support to the yen. Rising geopolitical tensions and fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown also contribute to the yen's demand as a safe-haven currency. The Bank of Japan's tone remains notably hawkish, standing in contrast to growing market expectations that the U.S. Federal R…
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How will the dollar react to the shutdown? So far, the market isn't jumping the gun—it's not rushing ahead of the train. However, economists have reviewed historical price data and found that during the last three government shutdowns, the dollar has inevitably declined. The decline didn't start immediately—it kicked in over time and even continued after the shutdowns ended. In simpler terms, a shutdown is like a time-delayed landmine for the U.S. dollar. Take the previous shutdown, for example, which ironically happened under Trump's first term in 2018–2019. It was the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 35 days. During that time, the dollar lost about 2…
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Since everything Trump does is "Great," the shutdown will likely be Great as well — albeit with a negative side. This time, Trump has decided not to simply send federal workers home while he and his team attempt to negotiate with the Democrats. Instead, he's opted for a more dramatic move: to fire government employees — and blame the Democrats for it. It may look and sound absurd, but let's not forget that Trump is a gambler. And gamblers love to bluff. I believe this is just that — a bluff — and no one is actually going to be fired. However, Trump will play this card as a trump (no pun intended) in his standoff with the Democrats. Without a doubt, he will announce loudly…
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As soon as Wednesday, October 1, the U.S. government and all federal institutions may go on leave. No, this isn't the start of vacation season. This is Donald Trump, once again, failing to reach an agreement with the Democrats — and lacking the political leverage to bypass the opposition. This time, U.S. legislation stands in Trump's way: the law requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass the budget for the next fiscal year. Whether Trump forgot about this or anticipated it and prepared accordingly is unclear. Most likely, it's the latter. Either way, whether he forgot or not doesn't really matter. What matters is the shutdown, which could become the first in the past six ye…
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The second estimate of UK GDP confirmed 0.3% growth for Q2, but the composition of growth reveals a troubling trend—stagnant consumer spending was offset by increases in government expenditures and a widening current account deficit. Expectations of accelerated GDP growth in Q3 remain low, as the composite PMI index fell in September to a four-month low of 51 points. The manufacturing PMI hit a five-month low and remained firmly in contraction territory. Structural problems are building in the UK economy and are increasingly impacting its resilience. Public borrowing in August significantly exceeded forecasts, with the budget deficit rising to £18 billion—a five-year…
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XRP is showing signs of strength as it holds above key support levels, but the road to a breakout remains far from clear. While momentum off the trendline brings optimism, bearish divergences on higher timeframes are raising caution. Bearish Divergence Signals Market Caution CasiTrades, in a recent update, noted that XRP has managed to show some momentum after bouncing off the black trendline highlighted last week. The respect of this level is encouraging, but the market is not out of danger just yet. Its price still faces the critical $3 resistance, which remains the key hurdle to confirm the start of a new bullish trend. Until that level is broken, downside risks rema…
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Dogecoin has yet to deliver the kind of rally many expect in the current market cycle, but one analyst believes that is only a matter of time. Posting on the social platform X, the analyst with the handle @EtherNasyonaL described a parabolic run for Dogecoin as inevitable, pointing to recurring chart structures that preceded Dogecoin’s explosive rallies in 2017 and 2021. Dogecoin’s price movement in this cycle has largely been characterized by short-lived bursts of momentum followed by lengthy stretches of sideways consolidation or gradual retracements. Yet, there is a strong conviction among the most bullish Dogecoin proponents that the true rally for this cycle has no…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 30 Today continue yesterday's geopolitical narratives with the US Government shutdown odds increasing (it seems that democrats wouldn't want to sign an extension) and Arab nations pushing for Hamas to accept the Gaza deal. About the first theme, a movement is happening with the Trump administration to remove a huge number of federal workers in an attempt to reduce costs and bureaucratic inefficiencies – There is a breach in the Government budget. The one issue is that it would be the people whose jobs are on the line that are required to prevent a shutdown. There are some intricacies to this theme but o…
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Qatar National Bank (QNB) has started using JPMorgan’s Kinexys payments platform for US dollar corporate flows, bringing on-chain settlement to clients in the country. According to JPMorgan, the move went live in March 2025. QNB Adopts Kinexys For USD Flows Based on reports, the Doha lender will now be able to move US dollar payments around the clock, removing the usual business-hour cutoffs that delay transfers. The system operates 24/7 and can settle some transfers in as little as two minutes, a speed level that banks say shortens what used to take days. For JP Morgan, Kinexys (the unit that grew out of its earlier blockchain work) is being rolled out more widely…
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The Japanese yen is stepping into the FX spotlight, battling the Australian dollar for top weekly performer — with the AUD lifted by the RBA’s hawkish pause and firm domestic data. A rare sight in 2025, the yen is beginning to dominate broader currency performance, as fundamentals start to assemble in its favor. Political momentum is shifting, with LDP contenders Takaichi and Koizumi pulling ahead in Friday’s LDP party leadership race and hinting at a possible renegotiation of Japan’s trade deal with the US. Both stances, seen as less supportive of Abenomics and Ishibanomics’ era of ultra-low rates, fuel growing speculation that BoJ hikes may be closer than expected. Ec…
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The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, but in recent days it has started to look more complicated. It is still too early to conclude that the upward section of the trend is canceled, but further complication of the wave pattern is quite possible. The upward section of the trend continues to form, and the news background continues to support mostly not the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump continues. Confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's dovish expectations for the Fed rate are growing. Market participants rate the results of Trump's first six to seven months in office very poorly, even though econom…
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Bitcoin enters the final day of the quarter in a tight coil of technicals and macro catalysts, with traders fixated on a handful of levels that will likely set the tone for October. Ostium Research’s week-ahead outlook frames the setup as a fading “window of weakness” into a potential Q4 tailwind, but only if the market navigates an event-heavy calendar without losing critical supports. As author Nik Patel puts it, “weekly momentum is still supportive of higher prices and I believe we are now emerging from the window of weakness I had marked out from Friday 20th Sept.” Key Bitcoin Levels Signal Explosive October Spot price action remains defined by last week’s rejection …
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The Dogecoin price may be preparing for what an analyst calls a “face-melting rally,” as fresh bullish technical patterns indicate a potential breakout. A crypto analyst notes that DOGE is entering a critical stage, similar to historical setups that have preceded significant upward moves. If the pattern plays out as expected, it would bolster the market expert’s confidence in the meme coin’s outlook. Rare Setup To Ignite Dogecoin Price Rally Market analyst Mikybull Crypto has drawn attention to a key chart formation that traders rarely encounter, the Bump & Run Reversal Bottom (BARR). According to his technical analysis shared on X social media, Dogecoin has recent…
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Chile’s environmental regulator has fined Albemarle (NYSE: ALB) nearly $340,000 for violations at its lithium operations in the Atacama salt flat, escalating tensions between the world’s top lithium producer and Chilean authorities. The Superintendence of the Environment (SMA) said Albemarle exceeded its approved water extraction limits between October 2019 and September 2020, drawing an average of 452.3 litres per second, which is above what was authorized under its environmental permit. The regulator also found the North Carolina-based company failed to follow required safeguards under its Aquifer Alert Sector plan in early 2021, including not reporting the act…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of 148.05 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. During the U.S. trading session, several important economic releases should be monitored. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, data on new jobs, and labor market changes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are expected. A speech by FOMC member Austan D. Goolsbee is also scheduled. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report will receive the most attention. At the same time, Goolsbee's remarks may spark additional int…
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Bitcoin has shown signs of resilience after setting a fresh low near $108,000, staging a recovery that lifted the price back above the $113,000 level. Bulls now try to reclaim the $115,000 level, but momentum weakens as sellers push back. The recovery eased pressure in the short term, yet uncertainty builds while the market tracks major macro risks. The biggest concern comes from Washington, where the threat of a US government shutdown looms large. Traders expect volatility if policymakers fail to strike a deal, and risk assets like Bitcoin often react sharply to such headlines. As the deadline approaches, investors grow cautious and price action reflects that tension. …
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Vale Base Metals, a subsidiary of Vale (NYSE: VALE), has commissioned a second furnace at its Onça Puma ferronickel complex in southeastern Pará, Brazil, increasing the asset’s nominal production capacity by 60%. The start-up of Furnace 2 adds 15,000 tonnes of nickel production capacity, lifting Onça Puma’s nameplate output to 40,000 tonnes per year. The company said the investment will allow higher production at lower costs, consolidating Onça Puma as Brazil’s largest ferronickel operation. CEO Shaun Usmar told Reuters that the expansion places Vale Base Metals in a “very strong position” once the market recovers, despite current low nickel prices driven by overs…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound The test of 1.3430 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. U.K. GDP data matched economists' forecasts. Expectations had been built on assumptions of stronger-than-expected growth in the British economy, which fueled speculative buying. However, the actual figures disappointed optimistic investors. The pound sterling, already under pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar, showed a restrained reaction and lacked the momentum needed to continue its upward movement. During the U.S. trading session…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro The test of 1.1747 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test of 1.1747, when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowed scenario No. 2 for selling to play out, but a major decline of the pair did not follow. Despite the published data showing an increase in jobless claims in Germany, the euro continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. The stability of the unemployment rate, which held at 6.3%, was the main supporting factor for the euro. The stability of Germany's labor market was interpret…
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It is very easy to get lost in the day-to-day action of trading. As headlines arrive by the hundreds, market narratives are often obscured by short-term movements; a small mean-reverting day can seem like the end of the world as we know it, even when the broader picture remains unchanged. Hence, as a trader, it is always beneficial to review the higher timeframes to confirm the current trends for most assets, spot any potential hurdle or pattern emerging and to identify key levels that may come into play in the upcoming days and weeks. Today, we will analyze the Weekly charts for the S&P 500, Bitcoin, Oil, Dollar Index and Gold. Read More: US JOLTS (Job Openin…
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Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE, TSX: AEM) says it has sold its entire 18% shareholding in copper-gold explorer Royal Road Minerals (TSXV: RYR) for proceeds of approximately C$5.51 million. The shares, totalling nearly 47.9 million, were sold at C$0.115 each. This represents a 6% discount over Royal Road’s market open price of C$0.16 on Monday, the day of Agnico’s disclosure. On Tuesday, it again traded at C$0.16 apiece, for a 3.1% intraday gain and a C$39.9 million ($28.6 million) market capitalization. Agnico has been a long-time shareholder of Royal Road, and in May 2019, the Canadian gold miner more than doubled its holding with a C$5.2 million equity investment. At …
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Namibia is weighing whether to join a potential consortium with Angola to buy into diamond giant De Beers, as concerns grow over weakening demand and the rise of lab-grown gems. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industries, Mines and Energy Natangwe Ithete said the government will not rush into a decision. “The diamond industry is going down (…) so this is something we need to study very carefully, to determine whether it is worth pursuing or not,” he told local news outlet Mining and Energy. Angola submitted a bid last week for a minority stake in De Beers, but has yet to approach Namibia. Ithete stressed that the delay was not a sign of tension. “We have ve…
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As he reflects on the choices he made in the past and how they have shaped his understanding of Bitcoin today, an early Bitcoin investor, Jeff Ross, is opening up about his journey in the crypto market and sharing a lesson he says still stays with him. After years of watching Bitcoin grow and evolve, he says one decision still stands out as his biggest mistake. Jeff Ross Admits His Biggest Bitcoin Mistake Jeff Ross says his biggest mistake was selling all his Bitcoin years ago. Instead of holding Bitcoin, he decided to move it into a substantial and diversified basket of altcoins. He believed coins like Litecoin would rise and even called it the “silver to Bitcoin’s gol…
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