Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12019 tópicos neste fórum
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The market stepped back ahead of the announcement of the September FOMC meeting results. Some investors chose to lock in profits, as the meeting's outcome could spark volatility in the S&P 500. For the first time since 1988, there may be three dissenters voting for an immediate 50 bp rate cut—the very move Donald Trump is demanding. At the same time, a single misstep or slip of the tongue by Jerome Powell at the press conference could cause turmoil. Nearly thirty record highs in the S&P 500 are drawing investors back to the US stock market, which still looks expensive from a fundamental perspective. Valuation: Price to Average 10-Year Earnings It's no joke t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar begins the important week quietly but heavier against all the G10 currencies, led by sterling. It is pushing against the $1.36 cap that has blocked the upside over the past couple of months. All but a few emerging market currencies also enjoy a firmer tone today. The Mexican peso has recorded a new high for the year as the greenback slips toward MXN18.40. The appeals court ruling on President Trump's firing of Federal Reserve Governor Cook may come today ahead of the tomorrow's start of the FOMC meeting, which is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bp for the first time this year. Equities are mostly higher. There were a few exceptions in the Asia …
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The Fed is set to cut rates in September—a situation painfully reminiscent of last year. Back then, the central bank also cited labor market weakness and began a cycle of monetary easing. Deja vu? In reality, there are plenty of differences from 2024. These differences mean it's not safe to assume the Fed will act at the same speed—or that EUR/USD will follow the previous path. Job creation in the US over the summer has slowed to an average of only 29,000 per month compared to 100,000 in the first quarter. Unemployment, on the other hand, is rising very slowly—not like in 2024, when it jumped by 0.6 percentage points and forced the Fed to cut rates. Clearly, the main reas…
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One wonders if Donald Trump is kicking himself or patting himself on the back while reviewing the latest US macroeconomic statistics. The US economy grew by an impressive 3.9% in the second quarter, marking the best performance in nearly two years. Jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since mid-July, highlighting the strength of the labor market. All good, Madame Marquise? Should the President have a statue built in his honor? But is a falling EUR/USD part of his plan? Dynamics of the US Economy Did the labor market really deteriorate so much under the previous BLS leadership and turn upward so quickly with the new one? Bloomberg experts now forecast September non…
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Overview: The US dollar is trading softer but most inside yesterday's ranges. An unexpected jump in Japanese unemployment has weighed on the yen, which is the only G10 currency that is not gaining on the dollar today. The soft greenback means the Canadian dollar is likely under-performing and it is barely firmer on the day. Sterling is the next to weakest following the final September composite PMI reading that lowered to slightly above the 50 boom/bust levels. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer. The JP Morgan and MSCI emerging market currency indices are up 0.2%-0.3% this week. Equities are pushing higher. In the Asia Pacific region only Hong Kong among the…
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If the Producer Price Index gave the green light to sell EUR/USD on the rise, the Consumer Price Index triggered the exact opposite reaction. The main currency pair was bought as prices fell. Twice in a row, it experienced a rollercoaster ride due to inflation. The ECB was relegated to the sidelines. The euro didn't react at all to new forecasts nor to Christine Lagarde's comments at the press conference. ECB Forecasts for GDP and Inflation The European Central Bank raised its inflation outlook for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.7%, and lowered its 2027 forecast to 1.9%. GDP is expected to expand by 1.2% this year and by 1% next year. Lagarde noted strong domestic demand, whic…
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I am not sure if Donald Trump is familiar with Albert Camus' work "Caligula," but the American president behaves somewhat like the Roman emperor. Caligula convinced himself that the highest value is death, not life. He executed friends and forgave enemies. The occupant of the White House has asserted that tariffs are beneficial not only for the American economy but also for the global economy. If the Supreme Court strikes them down, the entire world will fall into depression. Seriously, Donald? The first day of hearings on the tariffs proved extremely unpleasant for the White House. The judges classified them as taxes, which, in the U.S., is the prerogative of Congress. T…
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Yesterday, the U.S. dollar once again faced a minor sell-off. A series of speeches by Federal Reserve representatives also failed to provide support for the dollar, as markets appear to have grown accustomed to the tone of their statements. Yesterday's interviews with senior Fed officials Beth Hammack and Austan Goolsbee confirmed that inflation is still viewed as a serious threat. The lack of new inflation data due to the government shutdown has only heightened concerns, as it makes it difficult to accurately assess the current economic situation and make well-informed decisions. Despite progress in reducing inflation over recent months, both Hammack and Goolsbee emphas…
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"Beat the enemy with his own weapon." Donald Trump intends to force the Federal Reserve to lower rates to 1% and stimulate the U.S. economy by the end of his presidency. What happens next – whether it is uncontrollable inflation or a double recession – is of little concern. "After me, the flood." Jerome Powell has a response for the White House occupant. He is playing a subtle game, making EUR/USD and all markets tense. The U.S. dollar may react sharply to the outcomes of the last FOMC meeting in 2025, or it may not react at all. The base scenario involves a "hawkish" cut, where, after a rate decrease in federal funds, Jerome Powell indicates the Fed's intention to mainta…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell sharply against most risk assets — and there were objective reasons for that. During his speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. central bank intends to lower interest rates, even though the government shutdown is significantly limiting its ability to forecast the state of the economy. Speaking Tuesday at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Powell said that the economic outlook appeared to have remained unchanged since the policymakers' September meeting, when they cut interest rates and projected two more reductions this year. Powell repeatedly pointed to weak hiring growth an…
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There's no defense against a crowbar—except another crowbar. The return of financial markets to a world ruled by raw power has pushed EUR/USD below 1.17. Geopolitical risks continue to plague the Eurozone economy. They create uncertainty, and rising oil prices are particularly unwelcome for a region that imports most of its "black gold." Add to this the threat of snap elections in France, and the drop in the main currency pair ahead of US inflation data seemed logical. However, the US PPI data dampened the mood for the US dollar. If Moscow is not prepared to sit down at the negotiation table with Kyiv, Washington is ready for economic war. For this, it needs the support o…
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Overview: The greenback is firm as the week winds down. Next week could be one of the most eventful of the year, with FOMC meeting, US and eurozone Q2 GDP, US PCE deflator and jobs data, and the August 1 "reciprocal tariff" extension deadline. The recovery in US rates has seen the dollar rise toward JPY148 from below JPY146 yesterday despite rising expectations that the Bank of Japan can raise rates again later this year. The UK's string of poor economic news continued today with a smaller than expected recovery in June retail sales (0.9%) after a 2.8% drop in May. After falling almost 0.55% yesterday, sterling is off another 0.35% today. Emerging market currencies are mo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trouble rarely comes alone. Adding to political turmoil in France, investor disappointment over Germany's fiscal stimulus rollout, and stagnating hopes for peace in Ukraine, EUR/USD is now under pressure from the most rapid oil price surge since the onset of the Israel-Israel conflict in June. As a net oil importer, the euro area was hit hard by the 5% jump in Brent crude prices—a fresh blow to the euro. EUR/USD and Oil Price Dynamics Europe is still entangled in the ongoing French budget crisis, and now EUR/USD may lose one of its key advantages—monetary policy divergence. European Central Bank officials continue to insist that current interest rates are appropriat…
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Yesterday, New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said that monetary policy is in a good position for next year following last week's interest rate cut, which led to another weakening of the U.S. dollar. "Monetary policy is largely focused on balancing risks. To that end, the FOMC has shifted a moderately restrictive monetary policy toward a neutral stance," Williams said on Monday in prepared remarks for an event in Jersey City. "As a result of these actions, monetary policy is in a good position as we approach 2026." Investors interpreted Williams's comments as a signal that the Fed does not intend to change its interest rate course in the near future, m…
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The U.S. dollar strengthened amid the absence of labor market statistics. Concerns that the government shutdown and suspension of federal operations would delay the release of key fundamental data have been confirmed. Yesterday, the weekly jobless claims report was not published, and today we are unlikely to see unemployment and nonfarm payrolls figures for September. This delay undoubtedly adds extra uncertainty to financial markets. Investors and analysts are deprived of timely labor market information, which is critical for assessing the current state of the economy and forecasting its future trajectory. Normally, these data are used for investment decisions and strate…
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As the saying goes, "man proposes, but God disposes." Expectations often do not align with reality. It was previously thought that Donald Trump's extensive tariffs would significantly slow economic growth in the Eurozone. However, the currency bloc's economy has shown remarkable resilience. As a result, growth forecasts are being raised, which plays in favor of EUR/USD. On the other hand, markets are driven by expectations, and for the euro, things are not as good as one might assume. The European Commission has recently upgraded its GDP estimates for 2025, following similar moves from the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. The Brussels forecasts a…
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Yesterday, the U.S. dollar suffered significantly after a weak ADP employment report; however, the negative figures were partially offset by strong data on growth in U.S. services sector activity. According to data from the Institute for Supply Management, the index rose by 0.2 points, reaching a nine-month high of 52.6. Recall that a reading above 50 indicates growth in most sectors of the economy. This mixed picture in the market creates substantial uncertainty regarding the further direction of the U.S. currency. On the one hand, labor market weakness, reflected in an unexpected decline in employment, puts pressure on the dollar and heightens concerns about slowing ec…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The market has a short memory. When the U.S. dollar began to strengthen in mid-September, this was attributed to the escalation of the trade conflict, a reassessment of market views on the fate of the federal funds rate, a split within the Fed, and the political crisis in France. Investors seem to have forgotten that one of the primary reasons for the USD index's 10% decline in the first half of the year was the White House's desire for a weaker dollar. Donald Trump's visit and his team's trip to Asia served as a reminder of this. Scott Bessent, in a meeting with his colleague Satsuki Katayama, emphasized that the Bank of Japan must adhere to a reasonable monetary policy.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Two in favor, two against. Groups of opposing factors continue to influence EUR/USD. As a result, after volatile movements in early November, the main currency pair tends toward consolidation. Markets are no longer discussing a coordinated currency intervention at Mar-a-Lago aimed at weakening the U.S. dollar, similar to the Plaza Accord in 1985. Doubts about a Federal Reserve rate cut also support the greenback. However, it has serious vulnerabilities as well. In the first half of the year, Donald Trump often talked about the excessive strength of the American currency, which negatively impacts competitiveness. He urged the Fed to follow the European Central Bank's lead,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The continued release of US tariff announcements shapes the near-term considerations. Of the surprises, the 50% tariff on Brazil (10% on April's "Liberation Day") is among the most egregious. The US has a trade surplus with it and the letter made clear a personal animosity over the treatment of former President Bolsonaro. After having achieved retracement targets of the slide since the June 23 tirade against the Fed Chair Powell, the dollar has softer against most currencies today. Among the G10, the Swiss franc is the only one to be struggling to achieve traction. The Polish zloty, Turkish lira, and Taiwanese dollar are showing small losses. The Mexican peso is…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
There is ongoing profit-taking after very decent earnings for Tech companies, but the Dow Jones is opening strong. Very extended levels for the Nasdaq that had been making consistent new all-time highs in the past few months is leading to some selling in the Index. With the Nasdaq to Dow Jones ratio (mentioned in a US Index analysis in July) hanging around 2, there is some mean reversion flows buying the Dow Jones and selling the Nasdaq in the waiting of further geopolitical and rate outlook clarity. …
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US indices are onto another intense session, with the Dow Jones crossing the 47,000 mark and breaking through its long-watched ascending wedge pattern. Some profit-taking has now concluded and overall, the picture in US Equities is green in today's session. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European currency has been feeling quite confident lately — something that can be partly attributed to the wait-and-see stance adopted by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB). Boris Vujcic, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, recently reiterated his view that the current policy stance is at an appropriate level. He added that the ECB has done its job by bringing inflation down to the target without triggering a recession. Vujcic's statement came amid growing concerns about the sustainability of economic growth in the eurozone. Despite progress in curbing inflation, many analysts warn against premature complacency, pointing to persistent risks linke…
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Yesterday's inflation data for the eurozone prompted a series of comments from European Central Bank officials. However, in the currency market itself, the released report was largely ignored."The European Central Bank is not obliged to react to small deviations from the 2% inflation target. It should keep its powder dry so it can respond when there is a real need to change policy," said Governing Council member Martin Kocher in an interview. As a reminder, according to yesterday's data, consumer prices in the eurozone rose by 2.2% in November compared to the same period last year, higher than the 2.1% average level in the previous month and slightly above the median econ…
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ECB likely on hold; markets fully priced for no move.Headline inflation path could edge up; expectations ticked to 2.5%.Activity improving (PMI > 50); base case remains status quo at a 2% deposit rate.Baseline for Thursday: hold The European Central Bank will likely keep interest rates unchanged this Thursday and leave them at their current levels. The setup is favorable: inflation now appears closer to the 2% target than the ECB’s earlier assumptions suggested, and growth prospects are gradually improving. In such conditions, policymakers can feel comfortable with the deposit rate at 2%. Market pricing and messaging Markets do not expect a cut on Thursday. In a …
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