Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12019 tópicos neste fórum
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In the previous two reviews, we discussed why a strong euro is unfavorable for both the European Union and the European Central Bank, which, unlike the Federal Reserve, is not entirely autonomous. The only question that remains is: how can that be addressed? One of the options currently being floated by some economists is further interest rate reductions. Despite inflation in Europe having stabilized around 2%, the ECB may need to continue easing monetary policy solely to weaken the euro. It's true that in 2025, the ECB's "dovish" stance didn't produce a weaker euro — but that had more to do with Donald Trump's policies, which caused global markets to flee the U.S. dollar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
In recent years, central banks have been preoccupied with monetary easing, and few in the market have considered the question: who will be the first to raise interest rates again? That central bank could potentially be the European Central Bank (ECB), which was the first to cut rates to "neutral" levels and the first to return inflation to its target. Therefore, a moment may come in the future when inflation starts to accelerate again, prompting the ECB to take a more hawkish stance. Among major central banks, the ECB appears closest to that point. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the eurozone remains slightly above 2%. However, according to ECB President Christine Lagar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European Central Bank has lowered three interest rates, which can now be considered "neutral." Let me remind you, "neutral" rates are those that neither stimulate the economy nor restrain inflation. The consumer price index in the Eurozone has dropped to the target level and isn't falling below 2%. Thus, for now, further monetary policy easing is genuinely unnecessary. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel confirmed this. She stated that she still considers trade tariffs a threat to price stability within the European Union, but that tariffs might only cause a short-term spike in inflation, and current monetary policy settings could potentially contain price growth. Undoub…
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The European Central Bank is expected, for the third consecutive meeting this year, to keep interest rates unchanged today after receiving a new set of data that should provide more clarity on the damage caused by trade tensions and the fiscal crisis in France. The decision will be accompanied by close scrutiny of President Christine Lagarde's statements, which markets will analyze carefully for hints about the future direction of policy. Inflation in the eurozone remains slightly above the ECB's 2% target, while signs of slowing economic growth are intensifying, creating a dilemma for policymakers. In addition, political uncertainty in France following the recent electi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
After suffering a major price crash back during the weekend, the Ethereum price has enjoyed an over 10% bounce that has put it back above major support levels. However, even with the recovery, the altcoin sits on shaky ground with geopolitical and macroeconomic factors still unstable. On the charts, there is also uncertainty as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has failed to make any definitive moves from here, showing inconsistencies in movement. Ethereum Price Struggling At EMA Crypto analyst Swallow Academy noted that the Ethereum price has returned to trading at its Exponential Moving Average (EMA) earlier in the week after bouncing from its weekend low…
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Meanwhile, as demand for risk assets gradually returns, information has surfaced online that the European Union does not intend to abandon its plans and is preparing to propose to the United States a plan for implementing the next stage of the trade agreement reached by the two sides this summer. This step is being taken ahead of a meeting between the EU Commissioner for External Trade, Maros Sefcovic, and his American counterparts, which is expected to take place at the end of this month. The main goal of this stage is to reduce trade barriers and simplify procedures in areas of mutual interest. These include the digital economy, energy, steel and rare earth metal expor…
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Tensions are running high. Donald Trump's patience is wearing thin, and President Emmanuel Macron's authority is beginning to waver. Conflicting comments from the U.S. President have raised doubts about the end of the government shutdown, while the escalating political crisis in France continues to weigh heavily on the EUR/USD exchange rate. Mistakes shouldn't just be acknowledged — they're expected to be corrected, at any cost. Just over a year ago, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for snap parliamentary elections. At that time, the spread between French and German bond yields was just over 40 basis points. By October, it had surged to 86 basis points. S…
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Worrying signals from the ECB and IMF have tempered the enthusiasm of "bulls" for EUR/USD. The European Central Bank warned that pension reform in the Netherlands could bring turbulence to the European bond market. Approximately €1.9 trillion is managed by Dutch pension funds. The portfolio adjustments made by these financial institutions will affect bond yields. The International Monetary Fund raised its GDP growth forecast for Germany to 1% in 2026 and to 1.5% in 2027, but warned that without reforms, fiscal stimuli would be ineffective. Dynamics and Forecasts for German GDP The path upwards for EUR/USD will be bumpy. According to Deutsche Bank, the major currency pair …
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The market bought the rumor and sold the fact, while the worsening outlook for the German economy acted as a catalyst for the EUR/USD pullback. Moreover, the situation in Ukraine remains unresolved. U.S. employment figures are disappointing, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%. Overall, the BLS report gives the Federal Reserve a reason to sit back and observe how events unfold. This allowed traders to take profits on their long positions in the euro. U.S. Non-Farm Employment Dynamics The U.S. labor market continues to cool, with consumers refraining from excessive spending, as evidenced by retail sales data. American purchasing managers' indices also leave muc…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
While the European currency, although still in a bullish cycle against the dollar, continues its correction, the Vice President of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, stated that risks to financial stability remain high due to the unpredictable outlook for the global economy and trade. "Vulnerability remains elevated due to uncertainty about geoeconomic trends and the ultimate impact of tariffs in an unstable international environment," Guindos said in his speech in Frankfurt. In his address, he also emphasized that the ECB will closely monitor developments and is prepared to take necessary measures to ensure financial stability in the euro area. Special attentio…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European Central Bank, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting last week. No new forecasts were presented, so the main criterion for interest rate forecasting —namely, the inflation forecast —remains the same. ECB President Lagarde noted a decrease in several risks to the economy, and the tone of the accompanying statement is assessed as neutral, with the interest rate forecast remaining unchanged—the ECB has completed its easing cycle and will not change the rate at least until the middle of next year. Immediately before the meeting, a report on Q3 GDP was published, showing better-than-expected results. Since the ECB had anticipated zero growth in …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Despite the fact that more and more ECB policymakers are advocating for a restrictive approach to interest rates, the euro is not benefiting from it. In an interview, European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva stated that at present policymakers are not inclined to cut interest rates and could just as well raise them instead. According to Escriva, the current economic situation in the eurozone is still marked by uncertainty, and although inflationary pressure shows signs of easing, it remains significant. Under these conditions, in his view, cutting rates could prove premature and risky, potentially triggering a new wave of inflation. Escriva's argu…
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The euro has done what it had to—survive not one, but two votes of no confidence. First, the French government fended off a challenge from the left, then from the right. The yield spread between French and German bonds changed very little, and EUR/USD pulled back slightly from local highs. Was the old "buy the rumor, sell the fact" principle at play? Credit Agricole believes otherwise. According to the bank, all the negative news has already been priced into the euro, and there is strong demand from non-residents around the $1.15 area to hedge currency risk through selling U.S. dollars. French-German Bond Yield Spread Dynamics Sebastien Lecornu remains in power. First, 27…
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The euro has weakened significantly. Recently, more and more policymakers from the ECB have been advocating for a more cautious approach when making decisions on interest rate cuts, but Governing Council member of the European Central Bank Olli Rehn is not among them. Yesterday, the policymaker warned that there is a risk consumer price growth could slow to below the 2% target. "We have roughly achieved the goal — in that sense the situation is good right now," said the head of the Bank of Finland. "However, in the next couple of years, we can expect inflation to slow, partly due to the strengthening of the euro and the stabilization of wages and service prices." Now, af…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European currency continues to rise against the US dollar and several other assets, as statements from European officials—particularly European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde—are still new in traders' minds. According to Lagarde, the region's economy is in a favorable position because borrowing costs are at an optimal level. "The interest rates we agreed upon at the last meetings are, in my view, set correctly," Lagarde said. "I continue to say that we are in a good position, considering the inflation cycle that we have managed to bring under control." Investors interpreted these comments as a signal that the European Central Bank does not intend to ease it…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European Central Bank surprised no one and allowed markets to continue what they had been doing after the FOMC meeting—buying the US dollar. The deposit rate was kept at 2% for the third consecutive time. The Governing Council noted that a reliable labor market, solid household balances, and a cycle of easing monetary policy remain key elements of the Eurozone's economic resilience. In the third quarter, the Eurozone expanded by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, more than Bloomberg experts expected. Dynamics of European Economies France primarily deserves credit for this. Its GDP rose by 0.5% due to strong domestic demand and trade. Spain's stable performance added fuel …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, the European currency continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. Traders are now focusing primarily on the divergence between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve's policy paths: the former has no plans to change its stance anytime soon, while the American regulator, on the contrary, intends to actively cut rates by the end of the year. Yesterday, European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stated that there are currently no grounds for changing interest rates and warned that certain components of inflation require ongoing attention. Although it is still too early to say what will happen with borrowing costs in the coming mon…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
A recent interview with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde points to a rather wait-and-see stance from the regulator, which lately has not been much help to the euro's growth. Lagarde stated that she is satisfied with the current policy parameters, as inflation in the eurozone overall remains stable. "We are in a good position, and we need things to stay that way," she said in the interview. In her view, this outcome is the result of coordinated actions by the European Central Bank, member state governments, and structural reforms aimed at strengthening competitiveness and improving economic productivity. Above all, price stability allows the central bank …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
To reach a goal, one must sometimes make sacrifices. France's new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, concluded that short-term political stability is more important than pushing forward with pension reform. He agreed to postpone raising the retirement age from 62 to 64, effectively protecting himself from a no-confidence vote. As a result, the Socialist Party no longer intends to vote for his removal. The yield spread between French and German bonds plunged, and EUR/USD launched a counterattack. French-German Bond Yield Spread Dynamics Pension reform has long been a cornerstone of Emmanuel Macron's policy agenda. However, the president recognizes that another prime …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
When the economy lacks arguments to hold back the bullish momentum of EUR/USD, politics steps in. The split within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has dealt a blow to the euro. About 18 party representatives do not support the pension project of the CDU and the Social Democrats. To pass it in the Bundestag, a majority is needed, and they are short by six votes. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's position has weakened, unsettling the main currency pair. Politics and geopolitics have long impeded EUR/USD's progress. France has changed prime ministers as often as changing gloves, the armed conflict in Ukraine has lasted almost four years, and now Germany faces its own challeng…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Meanwhile, the European currency continues to face pressure. According to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel, the eurozone's economic data generally aligns with the European Central Bank's (ECB) forecasts, which leaves policymakers with room for flexibility. Last week, when the ECB kept the deposit rate unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, many officials stated that there was absolutely no reason to adjust rates. In an interview, the Bundesbank president also noted that since the publication of the latest forecasts in September, the figures have not changed significantly. "In December, we will receive new data and produce new forecasts based on them. Rig…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European currency continues to show strong potential for growth. On one hand, it is supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease its monetary policy. On the other hand, the European Central Bank's firm stance on interest rates also opens the door for new highs for the euro against the US dollar. The influence of these factors, however, should not be viewed separately from the broader economic picture. The European economy is showing signs of slowing, which could put pressure on the ECB in the future, forcing it to also consider loosening its policy. However, as long as inflation remains slightly above target levels, the ECB will adhere to a restrictiv…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The outlook for Eurozone economic growth remains broadly optimistic, supported by rising real disposable incomes, low inflation, and high wages. These factors are expected to form a foundation for sustained consumer demand. Although PMI data has been mixed — with manufacturing slowing and services accelerating — consumer demand remains solid, and GDP growth, while modest, is stable. Inflation rose in September from 2.0% year-over-year to 2.2%. This increase was anticipated due to rising energy prices, while core inflation remained steady at 2.3%. At this stage, there are no reasons to expect a resurgence in inflation, which means the ECB is likely to stick to its policy o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The downgrade of France's credit rating by S&P Global Ratings came as a bolt from the blue for EUR/USD. Bulls believed the political drama had ended, but this event brought the euro back down to earth. Two of the three largest agencies have now stripped France of its double-A credit rating. Moody's is expected to release its verdict on October 24. As a result, some hedge funds with strict investment criteria are selling French bonds, causing the yield spread with their German counterparts to widen. Yield Spread Dynamics Between French and German Bonds The main indicator of risk in Europe has begun to widen again. Investors realized they had mistaken hope for rea…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
One prime minister's resignation is already a big deal. But when four of them step down in quick succession, it can spark panic. That's precisely what is happening across French and European markets after Sebastien Lecornu announced that he does not intend to lead the French government. The reason is simple: an inability to reach a consensus with major political parties on the national budget. This unpleasant surprise from Paris knocked the EUR/USD pair off balance. Yield Spread Between German and French Bonds Soars The sell-off in French government bonds has pushed the yield spread between French and German securities — a key measure of political risk in Europe — to its …
Last reply by Ben Graham,
