Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12019 tópicos neste fórum
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The euro currently finds itself in a rather difficult position, facing challenges to further growth. According to a survey of economists, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep borrowing costs for the euro area at 2% until 2027. The forecast includes maintaining the deposit rate at the upcoming monetary policy meeting next week. However, such an outlook is far from certain: one-third of respondents predict at least one more rate cut on top of the eight already implemented, while 17% expect one or more rate hikes by the end of next year. This divergence of opinions among experts reflects uncertainty about the eurozone's economic outlook. On the one hand, pers…
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The European Union has approved a new package of sanctions targeting Russia's energy infrastructure, joining fresh US efforts to limit Moscow's ability to continue its military operation in Ukraine.According to a statement from Denmark, which currently holds the EU presidency, the new measures will ban imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from 2027. The EU will also tighten restrictions on transactions with two major Russian oil companies and impose sanctions on an additional 117 vessels from the so-called shadow fleet that have helped Russia circumvent previous sanctions. In the context of broader efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources, the EU's decis…
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The EURUSD is seeing a modest bounce from Friday’s closing levels. Recall that the pair surged sharply on Friday but gave back some of those gains into the close. That late-session correction dipped to the top of a key swing area between 1.16920 and 1.17028, where buyers stepped in. In early trading today, the low once again held against that support before rotating higher. On the hourly chart, the European morning rally extended toward another important resistance zone—defined by swing highs from August between 1.1730 and 1.17419. Sellers leaned against the upper edge of that area, with the session high stalling at 1.17421. The pair is now trading back within the zone ne…
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GV News – The Evolution of News Trading in Forex GV News on forex trading news There was a time when trading the news in forex was while never easy. it was easier. In the early days of online trading, brokers offered a feature that gave retail traders a clear edge: guaranteed fills. The Era of Guaranteed Fills With guaranteed fills, traders could place stop entry orders that would be executed at the exact price entered. For example: A buy stop at 1.1770 would be filled at 1.1770. A sell stop at 1.1715 would be executed at 1.1715. This created a unique opportunity to bracket the market around news events. Traders could place a buy stop above and a sell stop below the …
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An Ambitious Experiment in U.S. Coinage Among the rarest and most captivating coins in American numismatics is the $4 Stella. Produced only in 1879 and 1880, this short-lived gold piece was never meant for mass circulation. Instead, it represented an ambitious experiment by the U.S. Mint to create an international trade coin that could compete with Europe’s widely used gold standards, like the French 20 Franc and the British Sovereign. The name “Stella” comes from the star motif that appears on the coin’s reverse, symbolizing its intent to shine as a guiding light in global commerce. Though the project never advanced beyond a few hundred trial pieces, the $4 Stella remai…
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An Ambitious Experiment in U.S. Coinage Among the rarest and most captivating coins in American numismatics is the $4 Stella. Produced only in 1879 and 1880, this short-lived gold piece was never meant for mass circulation. Instead, it represented an ambitious experiment by the U.S. Mint to create an international trade coin that could compete with Europe’s widely used gold standards, like the French 20 Franc and the British Sovereign. The name “Stella” comes from the star motif that appears on the coin’s reverse, symbolizing its intent to shine as a guiding light in global commerce. Though the project never advanced beyond a few hundred trial pieces, the $4 Stella remai…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Fed just cut rates by 25 bps – Neutral tone (neither dovish or hawkish) It was largely expected and the Fed doesn't like to surprise Markets, so they tend to follow pricing closely (or send out a message through Nick TImiraos just before in case they had a last-minute change of mind). You can get access to the detailed report right here: Breaking News: US Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps, bringing target range to 3.50 - 3.75% There has been extra mentions of a US labor market getting weaker, but the Fed still made balanced remarks on their dual mandate, implying that they are still concerned with inflation. The dot plot suggests between 50 to 75 bps of cutting…
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The U.S. dollar strengthened following news that the Federal Reserve had cut interest rates by only a quarter of a percentage point — just as expected. Shortly after the announcement, Donald Trump stated that he wanted further rate cuts to support the wavering U.S. economy. During his speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that both unemployment and inflation are rising amid an escalating trade war, while the government shutdown has distorted official data, which was already surrounded by concerns of politicization. Therefore, according to Powell, another rate cut next month should not be expected. Markets reacted immediately — and the response was mixed. On one hand, sta…
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The dollar continues to lose ground against a number of risk assets amid expectations of a looser monetary policy from the U.S. central bank. However, not everyone believes that rapid action is necessary. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO David Solomon indicated in an interview that the Federal Reserve has no need to cut interest rates quickly, diverging from the Trump administration's pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy. "I don't think the refinancing rate is excessively restrictive, given the appetite for risk," Solomon said at a Barclays Plc financial services conference. According to him, investor enthusiasm in the markets is currently at its peak. Solomo…
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With Donald Trump potentially interested in blocking labor market and unemployment data releases, it's critical to assess the Federal Reserve's position. Right now, the level of uncertainty is off the charts. In his recent speeches, Jerome Powell made it clear that rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data. However, the question remains: how will the FOMC make decisions if the data are not available? In my view, if the government shutdown doesn't end within a week or two, the Fed may choose not to adjust monetary policy at its October meeting as a precautionary measure. It's worth mentioning that despite a dovish sentiment within the FOMC, most policymakers lea…
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The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025 has landed—25 basis points on September 17—and, in Trader Mayne’s telling, that removes the last macro “X-factor” hanging over the crypto market. In a video analysis posted the same day, the veteran price-action trader argued that with the policy move now in the rear-view mirror, crypto can “just focus on the charts,” sketching a roadmap in which Bitcoin posts one more leg higher into new all-time highs before a pullback ushers in a classic altseason blow-off. “We had FOMC today and the rates got cut finally… It’s 25 basis points,” he said. “Now the market’s going to digest it.” Where Is Bitcoin Price Going Next? The policy ba…
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Practically all participants in the currency market watched the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday evening. However, the market mainly focused on the FOMC's interest rate decision, the "dot plot" graph, and Jerome Powell's speech. In doing so, it completely overlooked another event that was perhaps less significant but still interesting. On Wednesday evening, the FOMC committee decided to reappoint all 11 presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks for a second term. What could be so important about this event? Quite a lot. Recall that in 2025, a full-blown war broke out between the Fed and Donald Trump. The President desperately demands a reduction in interest rates to lev…
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The market has been focused entirely on the FOMC meeting for a whole week. There are several reasons for this. First, there's not much else to discuss. Occasionally, bland reports from Europe or the US come out, only leading to another yawn among market participants. Second, the December FOMC meeting could be significant. Although the decision is effectively already made, the market might face numerous surprises today. Judging by the movements in the currency market over the past weeks, traders are well aware of this. If the December meeting seems clear — rates will be cut by 25 basis points — no one understands what will happen next year. Undoubtedly, the simplest scenar…
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Why Fed Independence Matters The Fed’s Current Dilemma: Independence, Politics, and Rate Decisions The Fed is once again in the spotlight as political pressure mounts. With President Trump applying relentless pressure on Fed Chair Powell to cut interest rates, the central bank faces a difficult balancing act. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is less about whether rates will change aS expectations are for no change in policy and more about how the Fed signals its stance and handles internal dissent. This situation highlights a crucial issue: the importance of Federal Reserve independence in maintaining economic stability. CME FedWatch Tool: …
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The much expected FOMC cut finally took place, and it is offering a lot of action throughout markets. The rate is now officially at 4.25% (Between 4% to 4.25%). An additional 50 bps is planned by the FED for the rest of the year. As expected Miran dissented for a 50 bps, the dot plot is a bit more dovish than expected. After the volatile past few days, particularly in FX markets and commodities, [...] took the seat of the most violent movements. You can access the official FOMC statement right here. Summary of Economic Projections can be found right here. Also do not forget to log in at 14:30 E.T. to Jerome Powell's Live Press conference through this link. Let's tak…
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The Federal Reserve just released their Rate Decision with no surprise. The FED is holding their Policy Rate between 4.25% to 4.50% on a 9-2 Vote – The Report has seen many "uncertainties" removed from the text compared to the past June Meeting. Imminent reactions are those of some small mean-reversion in the US Dollar and US Indices after this morning's rallies in all these assets. I will update this piece during the Q&A from Powell coming up at 2:30 P.M which you can live access right here. You can also access the July Meeting statement on the Federal Reserve's website. A few intraday charts to be updatedS&P 500 …
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So, the final showdown between Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve may be set for 2026. In 2025, the U.S. president suffered a complete defeat in this battle, but perhaps he did not aim to defeat the central bank so quickly. Let's recall that the FOMC consists of 12 voting members. From time to time, they are replaced by other committee representatives who do not have voting rights. Accordingly, all Trump needs to do is establish control over half of the committee. In 2025, he managed to sway at least three FOMC members to his side: the newly appointed and temporary Stephen Miran (who replaced Adriana Kugler), Christopher Waller (whom Trump promised to consider for the p…
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Bitcoin has already shown a lot of strength in recent times, pushing as high as $123,000 before trailing back down toward $117,000. So far, it looks like the digital asset has hit a roadblock and is now possibly looking at a peak. But analyst Merlijn The Trader has explained that it is far from over for Bitcoin with more rallies to come. He reveals that the Bitcoin price is yet to stage its ‘final act’, which must happen before there are talks of a top. Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Still In Play After the Bitcoin price rallied to new all-time highs pre-halving, which had never happened before, there were talks that the 4-year cycle had been broken. For clarification, the 4-ye…
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Bitcoin slid below the $92,000 mark on Wednesday, trading at $91,500 at press time after a one-day drop of 5% that left the token down 17% in the last 30 days. Market players were rattled after a stretch of heavy swings that began with a peak early in October. According to market trackers, price pressure has pushed sentiment into deep fear as investors reassess risk. Winklevoss Sees Opportunity According to posts on X by Cameron Winklevoss, prices under $90,000 may not last long. “This is the last time you’ll ever be able to buy bitcoin below $90k!” he said. Cameron and his brother Tyler have long compared Bitcoin to modern gold and have suggested it could one day rea…
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Crypto analyst NeverWishing has predicted that the XRP price will rally to as high as $1,115. He highlighted three paths for XRP to reach this target, in what the analyst described as the final bull run for the altcoin. Analyst Maps Out Final XRP Bull Run Rally To $1,115 In a TradingView post, the crypto analyst mapped out three paths for XRP to rally to the $1,115 target. They tagged the first path as the immediate delivery, the second as a normal delivery, and the third as one that will trigger only if the XRP price stays suppressed. For the third path, NeverWishing stated that a final backup execution could happen between January 1 and 6 next year. For path A, Neve…
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The 2025 State of Crypto Summit, hosted by Coinbase, is a landmark event. Held in New York City, it brought together over 400 leaders from finance, tech, and regulation. The summit’s focus was on shaping the future of cryptocurrency, with key announcements and discussions on industry trends. Several significant announcements emerged from the summit, from Coinbase’s newly introduced One Card to regulatory clarity for future trading, aligning with Coinbase’s strategy to expand and integrate the Base ecosystem with traditional financial systems. Regulatory Clarity and Future Trading: A critical discussion point was regulatory clarity, with 90% of Fortune 500 executive…
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Bitcoin may be setting up for another major push toward six-figure prices after reclaiming a key bullish pattern and ending a period of repeated downside deviations. According to well-known crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the recent move puts BTC back in position to aim for the $160,000 target, provided it can hold a crucial support level and break through evolving resistance. While short-term pullbacks are still possible, the broader technical picture remains intact. Historical price behavior suggests Bitcoin is still in a strong upward trend, but time and price pressures could soon force a decision point for the market. Bitcoin Bull Flag Breakout Revives Long-Term Bullis…
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Overview: The US dollar is consolidating in mostly narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. It is trading mostly softer against emerging markets currencies. The news stream features further progress of the US budget bill, which dropped the onerous "revenge tax" (Section 899), and there is talk of as many as a dozen trade framework agreements in the pipeline, ahead of the July 9 deadline. Canada dropped its threat on collecting funds today from its digital service tax, and this seemed to have jump started talks with the US. A deal is hoped for by July 21. China's PMI showed marginal improvement, and the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new low since last November…
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Overview: The dollar stalled after mostly extending this week's gains against the G10 currencies on the back of firmer US rates. The key event ahead of the weekend is Fed Chair Powell's speech in Jackson Hole (10 am ET). The greenback appreciated against all the G10 currencies this week, with the Antipodeans and sterling off more than 1% and the yen and euro not far behind. Emerging market currencies are mixed today, but on the week only a handful have managed to gain on the greenback, including the Chinese yuan and Mexican peso. The 10-year JGB yield rose five basis points this week and finished the week slightly above 1.60%, a new high since 2008. Most European benchma…
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Overview: The dollar has come back bid. It is trading near session highs late in the European morning. The French crisis has not been resolved and the policy mix advocated by the new head of the LDP and soon-to-be prime minister continues to weigh on the yen. The US government remains closed, and the White House has sent mixed signals about its willingness to negotiate with the Democratic Party leaders. The Antipodeans are the weakest among the G10 currencies ahead of New Zealand's anticipated rate cut tomorrow. True to form, in a firm US dollar environment, the Canadian dollar does relatively better, and today, it is atop the G10 currencies. The greenback is at its best …
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