Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12019 tópicos neste fórum
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Overview: The dollar's rally beginning during the Federal Reserve's press conference last week stalled yesterday, and the greenback is mostly heavier today. Despite Sweden's unexpected rate cut, the krona is leading the G10 currencies higher. The flash September PMIs mostly softened but the impact has been minimal. Fed Chair Powell speaks shortly after noon ET today and this could be a catalyst. The dollar has been sold through the technical retracements of last week's recovery. The greenback is more mixed against emerging market currencies, with central European currencies generally outperforming Asia Pacific currencies. Tokyo markets were closed for the national holida…
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Overview: A broadly stronger US dollar greets the returning North American participants from the long holiday weekend. The greenback has risen by 0.7% or more against most of the G10 currencies. The Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have fared best and are off less than 0.2%. Sterling is bearing the brunt. It is off nearly 1.15%. The yen is down more than 1% amid a rise in the US (and European yields) and the resignation by the leaders of the LDP, leaving Prime Minister Ishiba even more isolated. Most emerging market currencies are also weaker. with the central European currencies down most. The pressure appears to be emanating from the bond market. Benchmark 10-year y…
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Bitcoin’s latest hourly close may be offering more than meets the eye. With the 25- and 50-hour SMAs holding firm and the MACD showing renewed expansion, some analysts believe a breakout could be quietly brewing, and smart traders are starting to take notice. BTC’s Momentum Builds With Healthy Technical Backing In his latest 1-hour market update, Shaco AI noted that Bitcoin continues to humor the bulls, printing a strong close at $111,225.5. The price action has maintained a clear bullish bias, staying well above both the 25-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $110,147 and the 50-hour SMA at $109,420. This positioning suggests that BTC is building a solid base for contin…
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The 1841-O Seated Liberty Half Dime is a cherished numismatic gem minted at the New Orleans Mint during a formative period in United States history. American history buffs will recall that presidential transition and westward expansion as part of “Manifest Destiny” dominated the national scene in 1841. 1841: A Memorable Year in American Presidential History In an unusual year, America saw three different U.S. presidents sit in the White House in 1841. President Martin Van Buren’s term ended, William Henry Harrison was inaugurated, only to die shortly after from pneumonia, and his Vice President, John Tyler, assumed the presidency. In 1841, the American economy was sti…
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The 1841-O Seated Liberty Half Dime is a cherished numismatic gem minted at the New Orleans Mint during a formative period in United States history. American history buffs will recall that presidential transition and westward expansion as part of “Manifest Destiny” dominated the national scene in 1841. 1841: A Memorable Year in American Presidential History In an unusual year, America saw three different U.S. presidents sit in the White House in 1841. President Martin Van Buren’s term ended, William Henry Harrison was inaugurated, only to die shortly after from pneumonia, and his Vice President, John Tyler, assumed the presidency. In 1841, the American economy was sti…
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Historically, the Dogecoin price has recorded some of the most legendary rallies in the crypto space. Over the last couple of bull markets, the meme coin seems to have started a trend of outperforming its previous cycle’s performance, notching way more gains than anyone expected. Following this trend, the Dogecoin price is once again approaching a point where it could initiate another rally, and this time around, a crypto analyst predicts that it will reach double-digit values. The Anatomy Of The Historical Breakout Crypto analyst Dima Potts has predicted a possible 37x rally for the Dogecoin price this bull cycle. This forecast is gleaned from the previous cycle perform…
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In the race to build faster, cheaper, and more scalable blockchains, every major altcoin ecosystem has traced back to Ethereum. What began as a single programmable blockchain has evolved into the base layer of liquidity, infrastructure, and innovation for the broader crypto economy. Two High-profile Chains That Chose Integration Over Isolation A new compelling argument has emerged, which redefines the future of Layer 1 (L1) blockchains, particularly those compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). According to the Head of the Ecosystem at Ethereum Foundation, James_gaps, Celo and Ronin have proved why every altcoin’s L1 might eventually become an ETH L1. Celo …
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Overview: The US dollar is firmer today. It has reached a new ten-month high against the yen, a little above JPY156 and the euro saw a five-day low near $1.1565. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new high for the month. The news stream is light. UK's October CPI was mostly in line with expectations, and the market still is confident of a rate cut next month. Richmond Fed's Barkin and Fed Governor Miran speak today before the FOMC minutes from last month's meeting are published. Most large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region were fell today, but China's CSI 300 (~0.45%) and India's indices (~0.5%-0.6%) are the notabl…
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Just last week, the market first heard expressions of dissatisfaction from Japanese politicians who were unhappy with the current exchange rate of the yen. Today, Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued another round of verbal warnings regarding currency movements, once again emphasizing the serious need for urgent action. "I'm observing one-sided and rapid movements in the foreign exchange market," Katayama told reporters on Tuesday. "Our stance on assessing these developments with a high degree of urgency remains unchanged," she added. These statements continue to exert some pressure on the currency market, making speculators more cautious in their bets agains…
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Yesterday evening's Royal Bank of New Zealand Meeting delivered a much expected 25 bps cut. Usually, a rate decision that is released as expected will then point participants towards the communication. As explained in our pre-Rate decision analysis, there are different scenarios: a dovish or hawkish approach to again different possibilities of rate decisions (cut, pause, hike, 25 bps or more). Yesterday's dovish 25 bps cut from the RBNZ caught markets by surprise: a lower longer-run inflation outlook and subsequent lower projected OCR (New Zealand's main interest rate) combined with some lower revised growth and employment outlooks sent the Kiwi dropping against all m…
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The labor market data for the third quarter were very close to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) August forecast, and the results suggest the New Zealand economy's readiness for recovery. The number of hours worked increased by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter after six months of decline, signaling signs of rising demand for labor. The unemployment rate rose slightly from 5.2% to 5.3%, but is expected to drop to 4.5% in just a few months, indicating an overall positive trend. This morning, the RBNZ published its inflation expectations for the fourth quarter: 2.29% for one year ahead and 2.28% for two years ahead, virtually unchanged from the third-quarter forecasts. This su…
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Bitcoin is drifting just above $105,000 on June 5, its lowest realized volatility in almost two years, yet Swan, the Los-Angeles-based “Bitcoin-only” financial services firm, contends the market is on the verge of its most radical re-pricing ever. The Last Chance To Buy? In a X thread on Wednesday night, the company argued that the familiar four-year boom-and-bust cadence is giving way to “the last rotation”—a silent transfer of coins from retail speculators to institutions whose investment horizons stretch decades. “People less committed to the long term are exiting […] and a whole new class of investors is entering,” Swan is quoting Michael Saylor, framing the hand-off…
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Cardano has been one of the best performing assets on low timeframes. The top cryptocurrency is hinting at further profits, as the Bitcoin price crosses a new all time high and the much awaited altcoin season approaches. At the time of writing, Cardano trades at $0.74 with a 18% profit over the past 24 hours. On higher timeframes, the cryptocurrency records a 28% profit followed by XRP’s 20% gains over the same period. Analyst Says Cardano Will Replicate a Historical Bull Run Unlike Ethereum and XRP, the Cardano price has been more consistent with its past performance. In that sense, analyst Ali Martinez pointed to the formation of a bullish pattern for ADA that cou…
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Bitcoin distribution via miners takes a step back, Japan lowers Bitcoin taxes, Cameron Winklevoss believes in a 10x Bitcoin, while $BTC’s profitability hits historic highs. These are just some of the recent developments in the crypto world and we’ll discuss all of them. The first to touch on is Bitcoin’s profitability retesting a historical point after reaching a 92% threshold in Supply in Profit. This matters because, every time Bitcoin pushed above 90%, a bull rune followed. And the same thing is likely to happen now, as Bitcoin stagnates between $114K and $116K. An October bull run would push Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) up the charts faster than ever. The presale is a…
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A key architect of the lobbying campaign that transformed Donald Trump into a powerful advocate for cryptocurrency has made a remarkably profitable investment in one of the industry’s most speculative areas. David Bailey and his 210k Capital hedge fund achieved a net return of 640% in the 12 months leading up to June. It was achieved by investing in approximately a dozen companies that began purchasing Bitcoin, according to a source familiar with the situation. This performance significantly surpassed the gains in Bitcoin itself. As of June 30, the fund’s assets under management (AUM) totalled $433 million. Other Notable Moves By David Bailey Within The Crypto World…
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Demand for the US dollar has been increasing for over a week, starting around the time when the "smell" of the government shutdown's conclusion emerged in America. Perhaps the shutdown isn't really the issue, and the market, which initially ignored the government halt, continues to do so now? This sounds quite plausible, but in my reviews, I have previously mentioned that it is not solely about the shutdown that the market "does not see." The matter lies in the overall news background. Let's consider another recent event that gave the dollar a chance at success, rare in 2025. Following a series of speeches from FOMC officials, the probability of a rate cut at the December…
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Internally, the Federal Reserve continues to debate whether to prioritize the labor market or inflation. All governors are clearly divided into two camps: supporters of Trump's ideas and demands, and independent policymakers. The supporters of the US president call for an easing of monetary policy, arguing that excessively high rates will hinder economic growth and further "cool" the labor market. Independent policymakers remind that inflation has been rising in recent months, and the central bank has been striving to bring it back to 2% for several years. Currently, there are only three supporters: Stephen Miran, Michelle Bowman, and Christopher Waller. The independent c…
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With questions about the Federal Reserve's future actions seemingly resolved, the focus now shifts to what to expect from the US dollar amid shifting expectations for monetary policy. This week, the market's sentiment towards easing in December has become more "hawkish." Now, about half of the participants in the futures market expect the interest rate to remain at 4%. Consequently, "neutral" market sentiments have strengthened, which should support demand for the US currency, just as the end of the shutdown did. The American currency had been steadily appreciating until the point when the shutdown was lifted, and the market began to doubt a third rate cut by the end of t…
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Everything comes to an end — both the good and the bad. As investors prepare for heightened volatility in the S&P 500 in October, following several months of a sharp rally, the markets are beginning to bid farewell to the Magnificent Seven. Since the launch of artificial intelligence technologies in early 2023, betting on the stocks of companies in this group seemed like a win-win trade. However, nothing lasts forever. Performance of the Magnificent Seven At first glance, the giants appear unshaken—the Magnificent Seven accounts for 35% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. In 2026, the group's earnings are expected to grow by 15% and revenue by 13%. This is str…
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The stock market continues its upward climb despite multiple concerns. Overvalued fundamentals, trade tariffs, and a government shutdown — all of these typically spell trouble for the S&P 500. Yet the broad U.S. equity index continues to "find the good in the bad." It has now recorded its 32nd all-time high of the year, driven by optimism in artificial intelligence (AI) and expectations ahead of the upcoming corporate earnings season. Contributing to the rally was also a statement from the U.S. President regarding negotiations with the Democrats. S&P 500 Corporate Earnings Outlook According to Bloomberg analysts, corporate earnings for S&P 500 companies are ex…
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Tensions between the U.S. and China remain unresolved. "If we don't get a deal, there will be a trade war," said Donald Trump. And if it weren't for a 100% tariff, he added, "America would be treated like a doormat." The president, as usual, made his statements after market close—but even without aggressive rhetoric like this, the S&P 500 had enough reasons to turn lower. Any financial system relies not only on its largest players. While major institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America posted strong corporate earnings, mid-sized and smaller banks disappointed. Several regional institutions revealed issues with fraudulent lending activity, reawakening inves…
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Never stand in the path of an enraged bull. You can debate overvalued stocks, a cooling U.S. labor market and economy, or the inefficiency of investments in artificial intelligence technologies all you want. But going against the S&P 500 crowd that consistently buys the dips is financial suicide. They need any excuse to jump back in—and such an excuse came in the form of comments from White House officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the proposed 100% tariffs against China may not actually be implemented and that there is still time for negotiations. Prior to this, Donald Trump mentioned on social media that everything would be fine with China. Accor…
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Good news is abundant, while bad news is virtually nonexistent. Against this backdrop, how can the S&P 500 not rise? The broad stock index reached another record high amid new optimism over trade, rising NVIDIA stock prices, and strong macroeconomic data. However, toward the end of the trading session, investors preferred to play it safe and close some long positions ahead of important reports from the Magnificent Seven companies and the announcements following the FOMC meeting. As a result, the stock market pulled back. The Wall Street Journal insider reports that the White House intends to reduce tariffs on imports related to fentanyl products from 20% to 10%. As a …
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For a long time, markets have operated in a tug-of-war mode: signs of US economic weakness have pulled the S&P 500 down, but expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and faith in artificial intelligence technology have tipped the balance in the other direction. The broad equity index repeatedly hit record highs. However, by the end of September, everything seemed to turn upside down. A three-day decline became its longest losing streak in a month. S&P 500 Dynamics It's as if the actors switched roles. Impressive data on GDP, jobless claims, and durable goods orders did not help the S&P 500 "bulls." Meanwhile, the odds of a Fed rate cut in October only fell sl…
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No matter how challenging the current U.S. government shutdown may seem, these disruptions are temporary. This fact, combined with positive news from pharmaceutical companies, has pushed the S&P 500 back toward record highs. Donald Trump announced that Pfizer will introduce new medications in the U.S. at reduced prices. As long as the company invests in the American economy, it will be exempt from tariffs. The White House is also working with other industry representatives to reach similar agreements. U.S. Stock Index Performance The market hears what it wants to hear. That's why stock indices have continued their rally despite the government shutdown and declin…
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