Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3448 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I decided not to buy the pound. A second test of the same level coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which validated sell Scenario #2, resulting in a 30-pip drop. The absence of consensus among U.S. politicians due to major ideological differences negatively impacted the value of the U.S. dollar yesterday, leading to a modest strengthening of the British pound. Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential consequen…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of 1.1713 coincided with the MACD indicator moving well below the zero line, which limited the downside potential for the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of this level occurred while the MACD was in the oversold area, which allowed scenario No. 2 for buying to be realized, resulting in an increase of more than 35 pips. The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has risen sharply following negotiations between Democratic and Republican representatives. Against this backdrop, investors are growing increasingly concerned about how political instability could impact the U.S. economy, potent…
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As September ends, Bitcoin reclaims $114K – a meaningful intraday bounce that also pushes the total crypto market cap back above $3.9T. BTC closed near $113,985 after briefly touching $114,309, and traders are now eyeing $108K as support and $114,309 as immediate resistance, with a stronger ceiling sitting near $117K. XRP and Ethereum are also up by 0.89% and 2.44% respectively. In other news, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold are in the green, with the US Treasury’s gold holdings crossing $1T in value. A likely contributor to this is the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut, which has significantly lowered the hurdle rate for risky bets, bleeding into high-beta assets like …
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BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has surpassed Coinbase’s Deribit platform, becoming the largest venue for Bitcoin options globally. Open interest in options tied to IBIT recently reached nearly $38B, compared to $32B on Deribit. Deribit was founded in 2016 and has been the market leader for Bitcoin derivatives for the longest time. In contrast, launched only in November 2024, IBIT is relatively new to the options trading market. Its early and rapid adoption has turned heads in the crypto world. IBIT has had a remarkable growth since its inception. For starters, the firm crossed $80B in assets under management (AUM) in just 374 trading days – the fastest for an …
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Bitcoin continued its rally during U.S. trading yesterday and gained further during today's Asian session, reaching the 114,800 mark. Ethereum also posted significant gains, consolidating above $4,000. Yesterday, the SEC required issuers of spot ETFs for LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE to withdraw their 19b-4 filings, following the approval of general listing standards that replace the need for individual submissions. Clearly, this change will significantly accelerate the approval process for new crypto ETFs, making the old approach obsolete. As I noted earlier, the SEC's decision marks a turning point in recognizing cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. The withdr…
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If new U.S. tariffs and the looming government shutdown haven't spooked markets, should investors really be worried about lofty valuations? The S&P 500 is currently trading at nearly 23 times the earnings expected over the next 12 months. Over the past 25 years, such levels have been seen only twice — during the dot-com bubble and the pandemic. Yet some individual companies are trading at even higher P/E multiples. U.S. Companies With Elevated Valuations Interestingly, it is precisely the stocks with inflated valuations that are leading the rally. On September 29, the S&P 500 gained on the back of a 12% surge in Robinhood, whose P/E stands at 60. Since the b…
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In recent months, Solana (SOL) has emerged as a formidable competitor to Ethereum (ETH), consistently outpacing its larger rival in various key metrics. Analysts from The Motley Fool have highlighted that while Solana is sprinting ahead, Ethereum seems to be trotting along in comparison. Ethereum’s Market Lead May Be At Risk A particularly telling metric in this competition is the total value locked (TVL) within each ecosystem. TVL serves as an indicator of the capital deposited in a blockchain’s decentralized applications (dApps) and smart contracts. A higher total value locked often signifies greater value within the ecosystem, reflecting growing user engagement and…
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The U.S. dollar continued to lose ground rapidly against risk assets at the start of the week, with objective reasons for this decline. The likelihood of a government shutdown increased further after yesterday's meeting between Democrats and Republicans with Trump. Traders are concerned about how political uncertainty may impact the U.S. economy and are seeking safer assets, which is putting pressure on the dollar. The situation is aggravated by the approaching deadline for passing the budget for the new fiscal year. If Congress fails to reach a compromise, government agencies will be forced to suspend their operations. This would lead to a reduction in public services, s…
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Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities, and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational p…
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As the crypto market recovers from the end-of-September correction, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to reclaim the crucial $4,200 area. Some analysts affirmed that the altcoin’s bounce signals that a new leg up could be coming in the next few weeks. Ethereum Reclaims $4,000 On Monday, Ethereum continued to recover from the recent market pullback, surging nearly 6% from Sunday’s Lows toward a crucial barrier. Last week, the King of Altcoins recorded a sharp drop below the $4,000 level for the first time since early August, recording an eight-week low of $3,815 on Thursday afternoon. Over the weekend, the cryptocurrency reclaimed the $4,000 barrier before surging to the cru…
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[Natural Gas] – [Tuesday, September 30, 2025] With all technical indicators in strengthening conditions, seems like Natural Gas has the potential to continue its upward movement today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 3.400 2. Resistance. 1 : 3.338 3. Pivot : 3.235 4. Support. 1 : 3.173 5. Support. 2 : 3.070 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the price breaks and closes above 3.338, it could bring #NG up to the 3.400 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 3.400 is broken and closes above it, #NG has the potential to continue strengthening up to 3.503. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if Natural Gas declines and breaks below …
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[Gold] – [September 30, 2025] Today, Gold has the potential to rise toward its closest resistance level because all prevailing technical indicators are showing strengthening conditions. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 3884.98 2. Resistance. 1 : 3858.90 3. Pivot : 3807.52 4. Support. 1 : 3781.44 5. Support. 2 : 3730.06 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Gold breaks and closes above 3858.90, there is a chance to extend its gains up to 3884.98. Momentum Extension Bias: If 3884.98 is successfully surpassed, Gold has the potential to move up toward 3936.36. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if Gold declines and b…
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Solana found support near the $192 zone. SOL price is now attempting to recover from above $200 and faces hurdles near $215. SOL price started a recovery wave above $200 and $202 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $202 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $204 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start another decline if it stays below $215 and $220. Solana Price Eyes Recovery Solana price extended losses below $200 before the bulls took a stand, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL tested the $192 zone and recently started a recovery wave. …
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Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement for most of Monday. It cannot be said that the dollar fell too sharply, but the decline has now lasted for two consecutive days. Nor can it be said that the threat of a U.S. government shutdown or Donald Trump's new import tariffs triggered a collapse of the dollar, although in the first half of 2025, such factors would almost certainly have done so. Thus, under current conditions, the U.S. dollar remains relatively stable. On the hourly timeframe, we have drawn a descending trendline, but it is rather tentative. On Monday, there were no important macroeconomic releases in either th…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are several macroeconomic releases scheduled for Tuesday, with most of them originating from Germany. German data is important for the euro, as Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone. However, it is still only one country out of 27, so market reactions to German reports are usually limited. Today's reports include retail sales, unemployment rate, changes in the number of unemployed, and inflation. Naturally, the most important release is inflation, which may rise to 2.3%. The higher the inflation, the better for the euro, since this reduces the likelihood of another round of monetary easing by the European Central Bank. In …
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Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, GBP/USD also traded with a slight upward bias, but there is one important difference between the technical picture of the pound and that of the euro. The British currency consolidated above a fairly strong descending trendline and also broke through the key level of 1.3413. This strongly suggests that the pound's decline has ended. Recall that over the past two weeks the market used almost any reason to sell sterling, but overall the fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains much weaker. We tend to view the recent moves as just another correction within the broader uptrend, which will resume sooner or later. On Mond…
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As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in the low $110,000 range, a key on-chain indicator has flipped bullish, show signs of an upcoming price rally that could propel the top digital asset to new all-time highs (ATH) in the near term. Bitcoin’s 600,000 Transactions Threshold Takes Center Stage According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Ibrahim Cosar, an important correlation between BTC price and the total number of transactions over time stands out. The analyst shared the following chart to highlight the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the total number of transactions. Notably, whenever the total transaction count surges above the 600,000 level …
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XRP price is attempting a recovery wave above the $2.850 zone. The price now faces a couple of key hurdles near $2.920 and $2.950. XRP price is slowly moving higher above the $2.850 support zone. The price is now trading above $2.850 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $2.8320 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $2.920. XRP Price Faces Resistance XRP price started a recovery wave after it found support above $2.720 and $2.770, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to surpass the $2.80 and $2.850 resistance …
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Key takeaways RBA steady, RBNZ dovish tilt: Australia’s central bank is expected to hold rates at 3.6%, while New Zealand’s weak labour market raises the odds of a more dovish RBNZ stance.Widening yield spreads: The 2-year and 10-year AU/NZ sovereign bond yield spreads are likely to widen further, favouring AUD strength over NZD.AUD/NZD strength: The cross pair has gained 5.8% since July 2025, hitting a three-year high of 1.1390, supported by relative macro and yield dynamics.Technical outlook bullish: Short-term bias stays positive for AUD/NZD above 1.1330 support, with scope to test 1.1435 and the long-term secular resistance at 1.1470. Australia’s central bank (R…
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The Bitcoin price opened Monday with a slight recovery, reclaiming the $113,000 mark after a dip that brought the price down to $109,000—a level that has proven to be significant support for the top cryptocurrency. Despite this temporary bounce, one expert warns of further challenges ahead for bullish investors. Warns Of Further Bitcoin Price Drops In a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Doctor Profit expressed confidence in his market analysis, indicating that BTC is on track to reach his projected target range between $90,000 to $94,000, meaning an additional 20% drop for the Bitcoin price. He posited that the cryptocurrency is poised to move…
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Ethereum price started a recovery wave above $4,150. ETH is now consolidating and might aim for more gains if it clears the $4,220 resistance. Ethereum remained stable above $4,020 and started a recovery wave. The price is trading above $4,150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $4,100 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $4,220 and $4,250. Ethereum Price Eyes More Gains Ethereum price remained supported above the $4,020 level and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to recover above the $4,050 and $4,120 r…
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A cryptocurrency analyst has explained how XRP could see a bounce to $3 or even $3.15 based on this technical support level holding. XRP Has Found Support At The Lower Level Of A Parallel Channel In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about where XRP could be heading next based on a technical analysis (TA) pattern forming in its 4-hour price chart. The pattern in question is a Parallel Channel, which forms whenever an asset observes consolidation between two parallel trendlines. The upper level of the pattern provides resistance, while the lower one supports. A breakout of either of these trendlines can imply a continuation of the trend in that direction. …
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EUR/USD Yesterday's bullish impulse in the single currency proved to be weak. The price tried to move further away from the MACD line after breaking above it, but by the end of the day, the upper shadow was larger than the candle body. The Marlin oscillator stalled at the neutral zero line, and this morning even hinted at a reversal downward. The price is likely to remain in a sideways trend until the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. Even a consolidation below the MACD line (1.1708) would not be a signal for a decline toward the target of 1.1605; the market is simply waiting for Friday's data. A similar situation occurred a month ago, when the euro began to mo…
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GBP/USD The optimism in the pound that emerged yesterday morning faded by the end of the day. The session closed higher, but the balance line was only pierced by the upper shadow. Today opened below the balance line. The Marlin oscillator signaled a reversal while remaining in negative territory. Signs of sideways movement have appeared within the range of 1.3364–1.3468. This is likely to be the pound's holding range until U.S. labor data is released on Friday. On the four-hour chart, the price did not even attempt to rise above the balance line. On the way toward the target level of 1.3525, the pair faces the MACD lines on two key timeframes: D1 at 1.3468 and H4 at 1.…
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EUR/AUD On the daily chart, the price has almost consolidated below both indicator lines. A short-term descending channel has formed along a MACD line that has turned downward. The Marlin oscillator is testing the boundary with the bearish zone. The target is seen at the lower edge of the price channel at 1.7400, with the primary objective at 1.7246, the May low. If the price consolidates above the upper boundary of the channel at 1.7862, the main scenario will shift to an alternative one — a rise toward 1.8154, the August high. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the MACD line. A brief move of the Marlin oscillator signal line above zero, marked by…
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