Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Analysis of EUR/USD 5M On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair saw a minor pullback. Over the past week and a half, the euro has been slowly but steadily rising, recovering from the unjustified decline of the previous one-and-a-half months. Therefore, a minor correction within the local upward trend would not be detrimental. However, it is essential to note that the concept of trend is quite conditional, even on the hourly timeframe. The daily chart continues to show a global flat that has persisted for three months. Thus, any internal movement is a correction against a correction against a correction. The ascending trend on the hourly timeframe remains intact, as the pr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair traded with very low volatility and a downward bias on Tuesday. By the end of the day, the pair reached the Senkou Span B line, and the future trend we will observe in the coming weeks depends on this level. It's important to remember that the daily timeframe remains in a flat, meaning movements within the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830 can be entirely random and not dependent on fundamentals or macroeconomics. However, there were no significant events or news during the first two days of the week. The current correction could be beneficial, as it may help form an ascending trend line based on its extremes. We still …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5M Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair traded ultra-weakly for most of the day on Wednesday, then collapsed in the second half. Of course, "collapsed" is a strong term, as the total decline was about 50 pips. However, even this drop looked significant against the background of movements in recent weeks and months. As for the causes of the euro's decline and the U.S. dollar's rise, the situation is quite complex. In the morning, the Eurozone published the second estimate of October inflation, which matched both the forecasts and the first estimate. Thus, it did not trigger the drop in the pair. In the evening, the U.S. released the FOMC minutes, a formal documen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair started an upward move on Tuesday, and the market's reaction to the macroeconomic backdrop has finally become logical. To break it down, the price broke through and overcame another descending trend line, indicating further potential for price growth. Throughout the day, the euro indeed rose, significantly aided by the American reports. Retail sales data came in worse than forecasts, the ADP employment report was below expectations, and the producer price index did not upset the apple cart. Thus, we finally witnessed a decline in the dollar, but it ended swiftly near the Senkou Span B line. Therefore, it cannot yet be c…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair experienced relatively good volatility for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. While we cannot say that the rise of the European currency was logical in terms of macroeconomic and fundamental factors, we have repeatedly stated that any upward movement at this moment is inherently logical, as the upward trend persists. Besides the upward trend, a flat pattern persists on the daily timeframe. Given that the price has dipped into the lower boundary (1.1400) twice in recent weeks, a reversal and purely technical growth was also plausible. Thus, yesterday's growth in the pair amid fairly decent U.S. statistics did not s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair traded very little on Friday. At this time, traders should focus not on macroeconomic reports or fundamental backgrounds, but on the volatility indicator and the sideways trend on the daily timeframe. The volatility indicator shows very few trades in the market now, with practically no movement. Therefore, making gains with any trading signals or macroeconomic events is extremely difficult. The sideways trend on the daily timeframe demonstrates illogical movements within a sideways channel. Thus, the fundamentals and macroeconomics do not influence the current movements of the pair. On Friday, at least four interesting …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Analysis 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded disconnected entirely from reality, logic, fundamentals, and macroeconomics. First, it should be noted that there were no significant events in either the UK or the U.S. during the day. Nonetheless, one could have expected a new rise in the British pound for technical reasons. However, as the evening approached, the pound found no better option than to stabilize in an upward trend below the Kijun-sen line, thus resulting in yet another upward trend ending before it even began. Once again, we are witnessing the completely illogical growth of the dollar. It should be remembered that next week, there is a 90% probabili…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Analysis on 5M The GBP/USD currency pair continued its weak upward movement, with minimal volatility, on Monday, testing the Senkou Span B line. The bounce off this strong and important line provoked a slight decline in the pair during the latter half of the day. Thus, at this time, we cannot confidently state that the local downward trend is complete. The same picture is observed with the euro currency; the price also failed to breach the Senkou Span B line on the first attempt. In both cases, a breach of the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour timeframe is required to expect an upward trend. The British pound also has a trendline that needs to be surpassed. The mac…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded in various directions on Friday, with low volatility. Overall, the British pound has been in a sideways channel of 1.3096–1.3212 for an entire week. Last week, the British currency could have experienced a significant decline, as the UK's macroeconomic backdrop remained consistently negative. However, it is worth noting that over the past month and a half, the dollar has primarily been strengthening. And although disappointing news occasionally emerged from Britain, the U.S. also faced a continuous flow of negative reports. Therefore, we cannot classify the dollar's rise as entirely logical. On November 5, a local do…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded within a sideways channel on Monday, bounded by the 1.3096 level and the Senkou Span B line. The price alternately bounces off one boundary of the channel and then the other, allowing traders to make some transactions in the currency market. The upward trend for the pound started a couple of weeks ago, breaking the descending trend line last week. Thus, there are more reasons to expect continued growth rather than a new decline. However, the pair needs to confidently overcome Senkou Span B and the level of 1.3212. The fundamental backdrop for the British currency has not been great lately, but traders often inter…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded exclusively sideways, with minimal volatility, on Tuesday. The pair remains within the sideways channel of 1.3115-1.3190 and is not even attempting to break out of it. There were no macroeconomic or fundamental events yesterday, so traders had nothing to react to throughout the day. The situation may change today, as an important inflation report will be published in the UK that could impact the Bank of England's rate decision at the next meeting. However, even this may not be enough to end the flat. The day after, the long-awaited Non-Farm Payrolls report and unemployment rates will be released in the U.S., but …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair was trading lower on Wednesday and left the sideways channel of 1.3096-1.3212. The price also crossed below the Senkou Span B line, raising concerns that this is not just a coincidence but could indicate a trend. The British pound has once again demonstrated unprecedented weakness. For over a week, during the breakdown of a downward trend, it traded within a sideways channel, showing no desire to resume rising. It appears that the pair's decline yesterday was not due to macroeconomic factors, but instead because the bears grew tired of the bulls' passivity. The macroeconomic backdrop favored the British pound's decline yes…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite actively and positively on Tuesday. Yesterday, three reports were published in the U.S. that provoked a decline in the American currency. This time, the market reacted logically to the data, and the price broke through the Ichimoku indicator lines. Thus, it can be assumed that a new upward trend is forming. But how long will it last? From a technical standpoint, the descending trend line has been broken, and the Ichimoku indicator lines have been exceeded. However, the price has simply transitioned from one sideways channel to another. Recall that the price traded for about two weeks between the levels of 1…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair rose sharply on Wednesday, though it also fell sharply during the day. Such "swings" were due to fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds. First, a report on durable goods orders in the U.S. came out, beating expectations and strengthening the U.S. dollar. Shortly afterward, the UK's 2026 budget was announced, which could have led to another decline in the British pound, as taxes were increased contrary to the Labor Party's promises and Rachel Reeves's personal assurances. However, instead of a decline, we saw a rise. Why? Because the market had sold off the pound for two months based on questionable factors, it clearl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded even less logically on Friday than the EUR/USD pair. At the same time, the euro appreciated modestly by 10 pips; the British pound depreciated further by the end of the day. In the UK, all three reports released were positive, while in the U.S., two of the four (the most important) were negative. Yet, by the end of the day, the dollar still gained strength. In the UK, as well as elsewhere, business activity indices were published. In the services sector, the indicator rose to 51.1 points, while in manufacturing, it increased to 49.6 points. In both cases, forecasts were exceeded. Retail sales data from the UK als…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD on 5-Minute Timeframe The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher for most of Friday but retreated from local highs as the evening approached. Overall, the movements were entirely logical from a technical point of view, as shown on the 5-minute timeframe. There were virtually no fundamental or macroeconomic events that could have influenced market sentiment during the day. However, for the past month and a half, such events have not been necessary for the market. The dollar has risen at every opportunity, ignoring weak data, the absence of important data, and any fundamental events. Therefore, we have been saying for several weeks that trading should r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Friday after breaking through another ascending trendline. As mentioned, there is an ongoing flat trend on the daily timeframe, so the current decline is technical within the global sideways channel. On Friday, the Eurozone published its October inflation report, which triggered another decline in the European currency. From our perspective, this report is merely another excuse for selling the euro, which the market has actively taken advantage of recently. Formally, since inflation has decreased, the European Central Bank has taken one small step closer to easing monetary policy. The …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Analysis on 5M Timeframe The EUR/USD currency pair continued to exhibit convulsions rather than clear movements. Switching to the 5-minute timeframe, it is evident that for almost the entire day, the price remained in the familiar range of 1.0604-1.1666, making no attempts to break free. Volatility was once again minimal, and there was a lack of macroeconomic and fundamental news throughout the day. Thus, for the third consecutive day, there is nothing to analyze. We want to remind readers that this article does not discuss the outcomes of the FOMC meeting or the price movements that followed. We believe the market needs time to fully digest the information re…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD on 5-Minute Timeframe The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement for almost the entire day on Friday, with no significant local factors driving it. It should be noted that for the past month and a half, the British currency has only been falling, which completely contradicts, at least, the global fundamental background. However, a flat trend has developed on the daily timeframe for both the euro and the pound sterling. Thus, from a technical perspective, the pound's one-and-a-half-month decline can be explained. The GBP/USD pair has now even gone below the lower line of the sideways channel on the daily chart, but it is important to re…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair avoided a new decline on Friday, though in the first half of the day, it was poised to extend its decline. There were no significant news events in the UK or the US throughout the day, so the market sold the British pound again on technical grounds. However, while the European currency is sufficiently distant from the lower boundary of its flat on the daily timeframe, the British pound has approached it closely, having tested it three times. Thus, the GBP/USD pair may transition to a rise supported by macroeconomic and fundamental backgrounds. We recall that throughout October, we observed movements that were completely…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Analysis on 5M Timeframe The GBP/USD currency pair continued a significant downward trend for most of Wednesday. Recall that just days earlier, UK Treasury Chief Rachel Reeves delivered a speech that is already renowned for provoking declines in the British currency. This was the case again on Tuesday, although Reeves' statements were relatively harmless and did not suggest such a sharp drop in the British pound. Nevertheless, the market continues to trade illogically and sell the pound for trivial reasons. Hence, we were not surprised by yet another unfounded decline in the British currency. From a technical perspective, a new descending trend line has formed…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD (5M) The EUR/USD currency pair continued its movement on Tuesday, which might only provoke a nervous tic in most traders. For the fifth consecutive day, the quotes of the European currency slid down at a pace not even a pregnant turtle would envy. Over the full five trading days, the pair fell 44 pips, while the average volatility during this period was 49 pips. Thus, we continue to note the obvious fact – market movements are virtually non-existent. Yesterday, even relatively important reports like ADP and JOLTs did not help. We warned that the data on job openings has long been outdated and that the ADP report is now published not once a month bu…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair moved only in one direction – upwards – during Wednesday and Thursday. The volatility was quite high this time, unlike what we have been accustomed to in recent months. In principle, it is clear to all traders where this movement is coming from. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve held a meeting, announcing its decision to lower the key interest rate (which was quite expected) and outlining "neutral" prospects for monetary policy for the upcoming year. We do not consider the Fed's meeting results to be definitively "dovish," as the decision to reduce the key interest rate in December was known a few weeks earlier.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair showed no notable movements on Friday, with overall volatility for the day at just 31 pips. The only macroeconomic event of note on Friday was German inflation, but we had already warned that market reactions to the report could be minimal. The reason is that inflation in many countries is published in two estimates. The market reacts to the first, while the second rarely differs from the first and is typically ignored. Thus, it can be concluded that there were no significant events on Friday, and the pair's movement throughout the day fully aligned with the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. From a technical stand…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5M Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair showed no notable movements on Monday, and overall volatility was minimal. As anticipated, the report on European industrial production had little impact on the pair's movement throughout the day. The market made another attempt to continue the upward trend but quickly calmed down, recalling that tomorrow is a significant day. We are not joking. There hasn't been such a volume of important macroeconomic reports in one day for a long time. Of course, about a third of these reports should not even take place. The Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports are being released unplanned, two weeks late. Additionally, the A…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
