Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11977 tópicos neste fórum
-
Analysis of GBP/USD (5M) The GBP/USD currency pair continued its sluggish decline on Tuesday, similar to its "older sister" – the EUR/USD pair. In general, the British pound's positions currently appear more convincing than those of the European currency, and the technical picture is clearer. The British currency continues to trade above the trendline and the Kijun-sen line. Therefore, the upward trend is undoubtedly maintained. Of course, this evening it could easily turn into a downward trend if the market considers the results of the FOMC meeting to be "hawkish." It is difficult for us to say how a decrease in the key interest rate and the unconditionally "dovish" …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement initiated a few weeks ago on Wednesday and Thursday. We do not associate the new rise of the British currency with the Federal Reserve's meeting, as we believe its results are not definitively "dovish." Yes, the rate was lowered for the third consecutive time, but traders were aware of this a month ago and were openly expecting this decision. For 2026, Jerome Powell announced a pause, and the FOMC committee indicated a maximum of one easing of monetary policy. It is probably unnecessary to say that this is not the most "dovish" outcome of a meeting possible. Thus, this time, the U.S. dollar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight downward correction on Friday, as shown on the hourly chart. The upward trend remains intact, as the British pound actively rose on Wednesday and Thursday. Thus, a small correction on the last day of the week was expected. Additionally, the British macroeconomic backdrop, as is often the case, left much to be desired. While industrial production volumes in October increased more than expected (by 1.1% instead of 0.7%), GDP for the same month came in at -0.1% against forecasts of +0.1%. Therefore, this set of reports cannot be regarded as entirely positive for the British pound, and it failed to support the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair traded very weakly on Monday, although with a slight upward bias. There was a complete lack of macroeconomic and fundamental background both in the UK and the US yesterday, so traders had nothing to react to throughout the day. However, they weren't particularly keen on trading ahead of a completely chaotic Tuesday. A considerable number of important reports will be published today in both the UK and the US, so no one wants to take risks by opening positions on Monday. The upward trend on the hourly timeframe for the British pound remains, but no one can know how the day will end. We believe that macroeconomic reports may …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD on the 5-Minute Chart The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a sharp decline on Monday but rebounded almost as quickly. What do these two opposing movements tell us? First, the European currency most likely dropped due to the political crisis in France. Although we don't view this factor as significant—given France experiences political crises regularly—the market may have reacted to the news regardless. Second, the quick recovery of the euro appears to be a result of bargain buying. Traders saw an attractive exchange rate and quickly started purchasing. This tells us that no one in the market is seriously considering medium-term purchases of the U.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair remained under downward pressure throughout Tuesday. For the second consecutive day, the pair gravitated toward the downside. The political crisis in France remains the only noteworthy event so far this trading week, and we've already discussed that in earlier reviews. However, we do not believe this political development is significant or impactful enough to justify two days of sustained euro declines. In our view, the U.S. government shutdown carries far more weight in the eyes of traders. To be fair, the pair hasn't fallen too far — for two consecutive days, the 1.1657–1.1666 zone has halted the decline. The…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair remained under pressure, despite the fact that the political crisis in France has no direct connection to the UK. In recent days, the British pound has been clearly trading within a classic flat range, observable on both the hourly and daily timeframes. So, these abrupt upward and downward moves are not surprising. Ideally, we prefer to see the dollar decline and the pound rise, as most fundamental and macroeconomic indicators still support this scenario. However, over the past several months, the market has consistently demonstrated an unwillingness to sell the dollar aggressively. It's also possib…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after another slight pullback to the trendline. Thus, from a technical perspective, everything is absolutely consistent. The pair has already reached the area of 1.1657-1.1666, and there is not much left to reach the target level of 1.1800. Let us remind you that the euro remains within a sideways channel on the daily timeframe, and after a reversal around the lower boundary of this channel, it is aiming for the upper boundary. Yesterday's macroeconomic background also contributed to the strengthening of the euro. Although its rise started much earlier than the American reports…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Analysis 5M The EUR/USD currency pair fell on Monday. This is yet another instance highlighting "How logically the market is trading right now." On Monday, the only macroeconomic report of the day was Germany's industrial production, which finally beat expectations, posting solid month-on-month growth of 1.8%. However, traders did not react to this report during either the European or American trading sessions. Instead, in the afternoon, the pair began to fall, while GBP/USD remained stable and traded with even lower volatility. Overall, movements continue to stay outside the thresholds of this pathetic three-dimensional universe. As a result of the price decl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Analysis on 5M The EUR/USD currency pair attempted to enter a new phase of downward movement on Wednesday, but technical factors prevented it. Throughout the day, there were no significant reports in the Eurozone or the US. As a result, the euro's decline in the first half of the day was due to technical factors. In the second half of the day, the price rose on a rebound from the Senkou Span B line, a strong, significant trend-defining line. By the end of the day, the price was again near the 1.1604-1.1615 area, while the fundamental and macroeconomic background continued to have no impact on the pair's movement. From a fundamental perspective, we continue to …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Analysis on 5M The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, which has intensified. So what happened yesterday that caused the euro to accelerate its growth while the dollar declined? The answer is simple: the US shutdown has officially ended. Wait a minute! Shouldn't such an event provide support for the US currency? Yes, it should, if the dollar hadn't been rising for a month and a half for unknown reasons. Although we have often mentioned the reasons, they are purely technical. The daily timeframe is currently flat, with the price declining from the upper to the lower boundary. When the pair approached the lower line of the sideways c…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on Friday, despite the absence of any objective (even local) reasons for the decline. Indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors were published for November in the Eurozone, Germany, and the U.S., and these reports were expected to assist traders on Friday. However, in reality, they, like the reports on the U.S. labor market and unemployment from the previous day, only added to the confusion. In Germany, the business activity index in the services and manufacturing sectors fell, contrary to expectations, while in the Eurozone, one index showed positive dynamics, while anot…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair attempted to begin an upward trend on the hourly timeframe for the third time in recent days on Monday, but it was unsuccessful once again. For several consecutive days, the euro has essentially been trading within another flat range below a critical line. There were no significant macroeconomic data or fundamental events on Monday in either the EU or the U.S., so yet another flat, yet another "boring Monday," and another low volatility were entirely predictable. The market not only does not want to trade right now, but there were also no drivers present on Monday. From a technical perspective, the price has broken the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5M Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair traded with less than 40 pips of volatility on Monday. This article could almost end here, as it is clear that no macroeconomic report had any impact on the market. The US dollar did not weaken once again, even when it had every reason to, thus continuing the completely illogical downward movement. Let's take a closer look at the ISM manufacturing activity index for the US, which was the most important report from yesterday. Traders expected the business activity index to rise to 49.5 points for October. In reality, it dropped to 48.7 points. The report itself was significant, and its results were resonant; however, we ess…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M. The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade lower on Tuesday. Volatility was somewhat higher this time, at an average level, but there was no logic behind the movements. The euro has been falling for more than a month, almost without reason. Of course, there have been occasional less favorable macroeconomic data from the Eurozone, and sometimes there is good news from the U.S., but overall, it's the opposite trend. Nevertheless, the dollar has been rising on almost all fronts for over a month. On Tuesday, no significant reports were published throughout the day. The only noteworthy event was a speech by Christine Lagarde, in which monetary pol…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Wednesday. However, the most interesting aspect is not merely the further decline of the European currency. Recall that on Monday, the market essentially ignored the ISM manufacturing activity index, which came in worse than expected. For over a month, we have highlighted the illogical nature of market movements, emphasizing this event. Wednesday arrived, and the U.S. was set to release the ISM services activity index along with the ADP report on the labor market. Let's analyze. According to the ADP report, the private sector added 42,000 jobs in October. As noted, 42,000 is quite mini…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair traded in both directions without establishing a clear directional bias. A significant amount of macroeconomic data was released throughout the day, influencing market sentiment and causing the pair to fluctuate. Key reports included German inflation and unemployment data, as well as the U.S. JOLTS job openings report. Germany's annual inflation rate rose to 2.4%, exceeding forecasts, and unemployment remained unchanged at 6.3%. These can be viewed as relatively solid reports for the euro. Meanwhile, the JOLTs report showed 7.227 million job openings in August, nearly in line with expectations — making the data ne…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a volatility of about 40 pips. There were no movements throughout the day, offering nothing to trade. There were also no significant events in either the Eurozone or the U.S. As for Christine Lagarde's speeches, they no longer qualify as market-moving events. Over the last three weeks, Lagarde has spoken around ten times. Her message has been consistent: the European Central Bank sees no reason to change its monetary policy in the near future. Accordingly, traders had no reason to react, and no new impulses appeared. Still, the pair maintained its newly formed upward trend, did not retreat, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5M Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair stood still all day on Monday. This outcome was logical as there were no significant events scheduled for the first trading day of the week, unlike on Friday. Recall that on Friday, business activity indices were published in the Eurozone and the U.S., along with inflation data. Thus, the market had sufficient reasons to trade, rather than remain stagnant. We are not even talking about any specific direction; just movement is beneficial under the current circumstances. However, on Monday, there was no macroeconomic data, and the announcement of trade agreement discussions between China and the U.S. did not impress traders.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility on Tuesday, although it received some support from the British pound. The British currency plummeted yesterday due to another unfortunate statement from Chancellor Rachel Reeves, which also caused the euro to begin falling. However, the euro quickly rebounded as traders recalled that the UK's problems pertain to the British pound, not the euro. As a result, we first saw a sharp drop in quotes followed by an equally sharp rise. However, this "sharp drop" was only 40 pips, and practically all movements for the day occurred within the range of 1.1604-1.1666. The macroeconomic background in th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade... sideways throughout Wednesday. In recent days, we didn't expect the market to settle into a flat range, but at this point, we can confidently say the pair is in either a sideways channel or a movement that strongly resembles one. There remains an upward tilt, yet macroeconomic data and fundamentals have almost no lasting influence on price movement. To be more specific, individual economic reports do trigger market reactions, but these reports often contradict one another—preventing any sustained trend formation. Wednesday was a textbook example. Eurozone inflation data came in exactly as foreca…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD pair posted completely illogical moves on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, following the release of the annual NonFarm Payrolls report (which, unsurprisingly, disappointed), the US dollar rose. Then on Wednesday, when the dollar had every chance to fall again, there was no decline in the US currency—even though the Producer Price Index showed a drop of 0.1%. Historically, the PPI figure is usually around 0.2–0.3%. The slowdown could indicate simply a correction after the previous month's surge (when prices rose by 0.9%), as well as the minimal impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on inflation. However, low inflation still (potential…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair demonstrated quite strong growth on Thursday, which fully matched our expectations. On Thursday, only two events could have triggered volatility: the ECB meeting and the US inflation report. The ECB ultimately left all rates unchanged, as expected. In the final statement, the most noteworthy point was the upward revision of inflation forecasts for 2025-2026. However, this revision was minimal and does not significantly exceed the ECB's target level. Thus, at this time the ECB does not see a threat of uncontrolled price growth. But it was the US inflation report that caused the dollar to fall, even though it didn't ha…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair showed ultra-low volatility on Friday. The day's macroeconomic backdrop was quite weak, and traders had already had plenty of diverse information over the week to keep the uptrend intact. The uptrend did persist, but traders were clearly in no hurry to buy more. There may be several reasons. First, traders may be waiting for the Fed meeting—though in our view, everything is already quite clear about that event. Second, the market may be uncertain about the continuation of the trade war, since the Supreme Court could block Trump's tariffs. Third, the market is watching for new Trump moves regarding FOMC members, since…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement on Monday and, for the second time, broke through the important 1.1750–1.1760 area. The first breakout turned out to be false, but the uptrend on the hourly timeframe remains intact, which gives sufficient (technical) grounds to expect further growth of the European currency. From a fundamental and macroeconomic standpoint, the arguments in favor of further euro appreciation are even stronger. All recent U.S. data have, in one way or another, indicated worsening economic conditions. The only exception was the ISM Services PMI, which has traditionally shown more resilience than manufacturing in re…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
