Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11977 tópicos neste fórum
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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, but this time the rally was much stronger. None of Tuesday's published reports played any significant role for traders. European data allowed room for the euro to rise, but, for example, industrial production came in weaker than forecast. US reports didn't interest the market at all: retail sales and industrial production came in above expectations, yet the dollar still fell all day. As we've said many times, the dollar has plenty of global fundamental reasons to fall, even in the absence of local macroeconomic catalysts. We've repeatedly noted that even technical analysis on…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward bias throughout the day, right up until the Fed meeting. Trading showed extremely low volatility, as no one in the market wanted to take risks before the central bank's decision. The results of the meeting and all subsequent market moves will be analyzed tomorrow. For today, it's enough to note that the U.S. economy continues to weaken in the "Trump era." Recall that Donald Trump promised "explosive economic growth," but he never clarified when this explosive growth would arrive. Most likely—not anytime soon. In recent months, only activity in the services sector has remained afloat. Unemploymen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which was entirely justified this time. The day before, the European currency had been falling for inexplicable reasons, but on Thursday, everything was logical. In the US, important data on Q2 GDP and durable goods orders were published in the afternoon, and both reports delivered strong numbers. The American economy grew not by 3.3% as expected, but by 3.8%. Durable goods orders rose by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.5%. As a result, the pair exhibited the expected movement. We believe that the growth of the American economy is somewhat artificial; however, the fact of grow…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Friday, the EUR/USD pair experienced an upward movement, which represents a correction within the broader downtrend. The descending trendline clearly indicates the prevailing bearish sentiment among most traders, but we would still not expect a strong dollar rally. It is essential to recognize that over the past week and a half, several factors have indeed supported the U.S. currency; however, all of them are temporary. The global trend remains unchanged, as does the overall fundamental background. Thus, we are witnessing another round of correction, but the dollar still finds it extremely difficult to count on more than that. On Friday, E…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair moved upward and managed to break through the descending trendline. Further growth of the pair was capped by the 1.1750–1.1760 area, which has repeatedly acted as support or resistance for the price. Thus, at this point, it is still too early to be fully confident that the short-term downtrend has ended. Nevertheless, we have repeatedly noted that there have been no strong reasons for medium-term dollar growth. Over just the past few days, news has created a new fundamental basis for a decline in the U.S. currency. Donald Trump introduced new tariffs and announced plans to tax even the film industry. Expec…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Monday, but volatility throughout the day was low, and the only more or less significant report on German industrial production provoked no market reaction at all. By the start of the US trading session, the price returned to the 1.1750–1.1760 area, which it had already traded around on Friday, but once again failed to break through it. Thus, the upward trend remains, but breaking through the 1.1750–1.1760 area is still needed for a further, quite logical strengthening of the European currency. In our view, the market still has enough reasons to keep selling off the dollar. However, we …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD pair began to rise almost from the moment the market opened on Tuesday. However, in the second half of the day, when important US unemployment and labor-market reports were published, all upward movement halted. Overall, the British pound logically responded to the macroeconomic backdrop during the European trading session, but during the US session, we saw erratic movements with constantly changing directions. The US reports cannot be definitively interpreted as negative for the US dollar, but calling them positive is quite difficult. Essentially, the unemployment report alone is sufficient to label the entire batch of reports as weak.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair surged by an extraordinary amount over the past 24 hours. The upward movement began (or resumed) during the Asian trading session, and throughout the day, the British pound rose by 130 pips, something that hasn't happened in a long time. In general, discussing the reasons makes little sense, as they were the same as for the EUR/USD pair. However, the euro rose only 60 pips, while the pound rose twice as much. Why? From our perspective, the pound has fallen significantly more than the euro in recent months, and that's why it is now rising strongly. We have repeatedly pointed out the illogicality of such a sharp decline i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Analysis 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Monday, even weaker than the EUR/USD pair, which is quite rare. Throughout the day, the British pound fell to 1.3307 in the absence of any fundamental or macroeconomic events. Thus, the pair is now positioned near the trend line and close to the Kijun-sen line. The upward trend persists, but the European currency has already shown an inexplicable decline this week. Recall that the results of the Federal Reserve meeting will be known tomorrow evening, and they are likely to be "dovish." Thus, the dollar's initial strengthening this week (albeit weak) looks surprising. However, the dollar has repeatedly…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Analysis on 5M The GBP/USD currency pair started Tuesday on a downward trajectory. It cannot be said that this decline was significant – only 45 pips. By the end of the American trading session, the pound had already recovered all its losses. However, in the first half of the day, there were grounds for the decline, as the UK unemployment rate rose to 5% from the expected 4.9%. It is clear that traders could not ignore such a failure, but at the same time, the reaction, as anticipated, turned out to be weak. What explains the rise of the pound in the second half of the day? Firstly, the pound had been falling for 1.5 months in a row with no clear reason. Secon…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Analysis on 5M The GBP/USD currency pair started on Wednesday with another decline, which is quite difficult to explain. If the day before there was an outright disappointing unemployment report in the UK that triggered a drop in the pound, yesterday saw no significant events in either the US or the UK. Nevertheless, the pound sterling continued to trend downwards. The Kijun-sen line saved the pound from further decline, as the price pierced it and even went below, but then rebounded. Thus, in the absence of news and events on Wednesday, the movements were purely technical. The trend is beginning to shift upwards, with growth prospects remaining viable above t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Analysis on 5M On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement throughout the day, following British data that significantly disappointed and the end of the US government shutdown. If anyone is unclear about these events, the end of the shutdown is a positive event for the dollar and should have prompted an appreciation of the US currency (i.e., a decline in the pair). However, weak (below-expected) GDP growth and a contraction in UK industrial production are negative factors that should have weighed on the British pound (i.e., a decline in the pair). In fact, we observed the exact opposite movement, which intensified sharply. As we've noted…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair fluctuated in various directions on Friday, though "fluctuated" is a bit of an exaggeration. Despite the abundance of macroeconomic information, volatility was not particularly high again. Most of the published reports were contradictory. For instance, the index of business activity in the UK services sector decreased, while it increased in the manufacturing sector. In the United States, the manufacturing sector index decreased, but the services sector index increased. However, two reports determined the pound's movement direction in the morning and after lunch. Retail sales in the UK fell by 1.1% in October, prompting …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair displayed only "convulsions" again on Monday. Throughout the day, traders attempted to push the British pound above the Ichimoku indicator lines, but they were completely unsuccessful. These lines may eventually be surpassed, but not on Monday. There were no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events to highlight from yesterday, which makes another flat, another "boring Monday," and another instance of low volatility entirely unsurprising. The market not only shows reluctance to trade at this time but also suffers from a lack of drivers on Monday. From a technical standpoint, the price has surpassed the descending…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair on Monday attempted for the third time to break through the updated support level at 1.3115. There were again no grounds for the decline of the British currency, and during the day, only the manufacturing activity indexes for October were published in the UK and the US. The British index was released in its second estimate, generating little interest among traders. The US ISM index, released in a single estimate, provided a resonant figure but failed to spark any interest from traders. The US dollar had every reason to lose at least 50-60 pips on the ISM report yesterday, yet the expected decline did not occur. From a tech…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair traded lower again on Tuesday, without any apparent reason. Throughout Tuesday, there were no significant macroeconomic reports or important events in either the UK or the US. Nonetheless, even without a minimum correction (once again), the British pound continued to decline. By the end of the day, it had already dropped to 1.3050 and seemed unwilling to stop. It should be noted that the US dollar is not rising out of nowhere, but is doing so amid various negative factors. This makes the current movement doubly illogical. From a technical perspective, on the hourly timeframe, the situation is straightforward. The price …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair managed to avoid a new decline on Wednesday —what is it? A calm before a new storm? Or before another fall of the British pound? Recall that today in the UK, the results of the Bank of England meeting will be announced, and any deviation in the interest rate, in the voting on the rate, or in the central bank's accompanying statement from market expectations could provoke a significant movement. However, on Wednesday, at least two reports from the U.S. could have triggered a good movement. But instead, we saw a flat market throughout the day. We already noted that the ADP report came in better than forecasts, but it is i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair also traded in a "neither here nor there" fashion. While the euro at least attempted to establish some directional movement throughout the day, the British pound didn't offer even that. Nevertheless, the pound managed to remain above the 1.3420 level as well as above the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator. Earlier, the price had broken through a descending trend line, indicating that the trend has shifted to being upward. All that's left now is for the upward movement to resume, with hopes that this week's macroeconomic backdrop won't spoil the technical picture. But it very well might. Yesterday's GDP report f…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair also showed limited volatility on Thursday, though it continued to edge higher—slowly but steadily. Clearly, the British pound and market bulls still have energy to spare. Over recent weeks, buyers have been largely inactive despite having solid reasons to support the pound at least occasionally. Across the Atlantic, news from the U.S. continues to disappoint. Meanwhile, the U.K. has released a batch of macroeconomic data this week, some of which could have justified a GBP sell-off. From our perspective, the fact that the pound continued rising despite mediocre reports is a strong signal. From a technical stand…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD pair also moved in various directions on Wednesday, influenced by the macroeconomic backdrop. During the early part of the day, the British pound continued its technical recovery. However, in the second half of the day, volatility surged. First, the U.S. ADP employment report was released with a negative figure. Then came the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which showed a "conditionally-positive" result. As a result, the dollar initially weakened, then strengthened — and now, a new downtrend is visible on the hourly timeframe. The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of strain, and this Friday's usual Nonfarm Payrolls may not be …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair also pretended to trade on Monday. The day began quite optimistically, with a 30-pip rise. One could assume that the market was indeed set to react to the de-escalation of the trade conflict between China and the U.S. It does not matter that such de-escalation should have led to an appreciation of the dollar rather than a decline. Traders want to see movement, not just convulsions. However, a couple of hours later, it became clear that the 30-pip increase in the morning was merely a coincidence. Throughout the day, no interesting reports were released in the UK or the U.S., and no other news came to traders' attention. Fro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD pair fell sharply on Tuesday, like a stone. This was certainly justified, as in recent weeks we have observed average volatility of around 50-60 pips. Yesterday, the British pound lost about 120 pips during the day and only slightly recovered by the evening. The unexpected collapse of sterling was another unfortunate statement from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is already known for her regular negative impact on the British currency. This time, Reeves hinted that leaving the EU was a mistake for Britain and that the current government is diligently working to restore ties with the Alliance. Additionally, this evening, the FOMC mee…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair once again failed—possibly for the third or fourth time—to break through the 1.3420–1.3425 area. A rebound followed, suggesting that the British currency could rise, at least up to the Senkou Span B line, even in the absence of fundamental or macroeconomic support. In any case, no significant news is expected today from either the United States or the United Kingdom. Overall, the British pound continues to trade rather poorly. The pair still has enough reason to revive the upward trend of 2025, but traders remain hesitant to initiate buying activity. There were no significant events on Monday in eith…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD pair also traded in a very strange and frustrating way for traders on both Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, there was a decline when everyone expected growth. On Wednesday, the British pound edged higher, but volatility was again near zero. The market justifiably ignored the Producer Price Index, since the Consumer Price Index will be released today, and it no longer matters much. If inflation rises rapidly, the Fed will still cut the key rate at least twice this year. What happens next year is anyone's guess. If inflation grows slowly or not at all, the odds of monetary easing at every meeting through the year-end will grow eve…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair also posted quite strong growth on Thursday, even though it experienced a decline in the first half of the day. However, this drop allowed a second extremum to form on the hourly chart, which ultimately resulted in the development of an ascending trendline. So, as the saying goes, "all's well that ends well." The British pound is growing again—because, at this stage, it has no other realistic option. The US inflation report could theoretically have supported the greenback, since inflation increased in August, which may prompt the Fed to cut rates a bit more slowly. However, we were warning that inflation is not curre…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
