Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11977 tópicos neste fórum
-
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also traded sideways with low volatility. In the UK, GDP and industrial production reports came out that day, but they didn't particularly interest the market. At best, the reaction was around 20 pips. So, technically, nothing changed on the hourly timeframe. Next week, at least two events could seriously shake the market. It's obvious the Bank of England will take a pause and keep the key rate unchanged. It's also clear that the Federal Reserve will cut the key rate by 0.25%. However, the Fed could guide the market on how many more cuts to expect for the rest of the year. Currently, one more rate cut is expected i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Monday, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement, with no local reasons provided. However, in 2025, the absence of local drivers means little for the market, as there are plenty of fundamental ones. The British pound is likely to continue appreciating this week, as the Federal Reserve is almost guaranteed to cut rates, while the Bank of England is expected to hold steady. Moreover, the next monetary easing in the UK is unlikely to happen anytime soon, while the Fed's September cut may become just the first in an entire series. And if Trump reshapes the FOMC in 2026 as he intends, rates could quickly fall into the 1–2% range. In the s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair also continued to move north, though not as strongly as EUR/USD. The uptrend on the hourly timeframe remains, as evidenced by the trendline, while UK statistics released yesterday morning had no real effect on the pound's growth. All three UK reports published were dull and neutral, almost exactly matching economist forecasts. They simply couldn't provoke a rally throughout the day. The same applies to US data (industrial production, retail sales), which also beat forecasts and should have supported the dollar, not the pound. However, the US currency still has plenty of fundamental reasons for decline, an…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement until late in the evening. The pound sterling continues to rise steadily and confidently, with all necessary factors supporting it. U.K. data published this week did not spoil the picture for the pound. The British economy is far from being in its best shape, but that's not the main factor for traders right now. At most, domestic reports could have triggered a minor local pullback, while the pound is capable of growing even without supportive data from the U.K. Yesterday, inflation was released and came exactly in line with forecasts. In August, headline CPI remained u…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday. Recall that the "black streak" for the British currency began last week. Over this period, both news events genuinely worked against the pound, and events that could be interpreted in various ways. In almost all cases, traders chose to interpret the news unfavorably for the British currency. Yesterday, the fall of the GBP/USD pair was entirely justified, as US data turned out to be far better than forecasts. US GDP grew in the second quarter by 3.8% versus initial forecasts of about 3%, and durable goods orders increased by 2.9% despite negative expectations. From a technical …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair recovered significantly, so it is too early to write off the British currency. Over the past week and a half, the pound has gone through a rough patch, but we still believe this weakness will be short-lived. Even when all factors point in one direction, technical corrections are inevitable. Individual reports and events can trigger counter-trend movements, which, on lower timeframes, may appear as independent trends. This is precisely the kind of trend we are observing now on the hourly chart. On Friday, the pound was strongly supported by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The indicator once agai…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to recover after a two-week collapse. Recall that in recent weeks, there were not many factors directly against the British currency, but traders interpreted virtually every piece of news as negative for sterling. At least, that's our view. Either way, the pound lost several hundred points, but the price has now consolidated above the descending trendline. Thus, the downtrend can be considered complete. In this case, the pair's growth will continue in a much more logical and consistent manner. It is worth noting that this is not so much the pound rising in the FX market as the dollar falling, wit…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher and returned to its resistance area, which can rightly be considered the upper boundary of the sideways channel. Recall that the British pound has not been in a flat range in recent weeks like the euro. Nevertheless, its movement was hardly trending either, and the bulls failed to overcome the 1.3525–1.3548 resistance area after four attempts. However, traders are not giving up on efforts to break through, so we believe this area ultimately will not hold. On Monday, neither the UK nor the US saw any important events or reports. Yet, the British pound strengthened again. We take this as a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5M Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline throughout Thursday. Overall, even if we were to gather all possible factors that could support the U.S. dollar and ignore all the ones that oppose it, even then, such dollar strength would hardly be justified. The only significant event on Thursday was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech. However, the dollar began to strengthen earlier in the day, which once again highlights the illogical nature of the current market behavior. Perhaps the market has completely changed its attitude toward Donald Trump's policies and now, for example, views them positively. But from our perspective, there shoul…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5M Analysis On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair finally showed some growth. The ironic twist is that the only macroeconomic report of the day came from the U.S., and it turned out to be stronger than expected. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index exceeded traders' forecasts by 0.8 points, which could have strengthened the dollar. However, a market that had ignored negative U.S. data for two straight weeks also ignored this positive surprise. Throughout the past week, the market focused only on developments that supported the downward movement—but on Friday, that changed. Of course, Trump's evening speech also played a role. He announced new 100…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair fluctuated throughout Tuesday. In the first half of the day, another decline was observed, potentially driven by weaker-than-expected ZEW economic sentiment indices from both Germany and the EU. In the second half of the day, the pair experienced a slight recovery, likely in response to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. It remains unclear what exactly Powell communicated to the markets, but in any case, the Fed is expected to maintain a generally dovish stance over the next one to two years. The only question is the pace at which the key interest rate will be lowered. Even the modest upward move…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Friday, EUR/USD posted a relatively strong downward movement—something that would not be expected from a single macroeconomic report like euro area inflation data. In the previous analysis, we stated that the market was unlikely to react significantly to this release, as the second estimate of inflation rarely moves markets. However, this time the data surprised: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September came in at 2.4% year-over-year, instead of the 2.3% previously reported. What does this mean? Inflation is accelerating, and the European Central Bank clearly won't lower interest rates any time soon. If inflation keeps climbing, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD – 5M Timeframe The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited virtually no trading activity on Monday—literally. There are days when the market is sideways, and then there are days when the market is completely inert. Yesterday was one of those days. No macroeconomic reports were published, no fundamental events occurred, and even the latest rhetorical jabs from Donald Trump directed at China failed to revive trading activity. Traders have become increasingly indifferent to statements from the U.S. President, having realized that Trump changes his stance as often as the wind. As a result, there was no reason for traders to enter the market. Technically, the n…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5M Analysis On Tuesday, EUR/USD once again traded with low volatility, though the movement was clearly downward—continuing the pattern seen on Monday. As a result, the beginning of the new week continues to favor the U.S. dollar. As for the reasons behind this move, are they still relevant? For three weeks in a row, we've been repeating the same point: there are no valid reasons for the dollar's growth. Still, on the daily timeframe, the price remains within a flat structure, and within this range (spanning over 400 pips), movements can be entirely random—which is precisely what we're witnessing. There were no significant events or data releases on Tuesday fro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5M Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair showed another session of low volatility on Wednesday. In the first half of the day, the euro declined for no apparent reason—a pattern traders have likely grown accustomed to this week. In the second half, the euro saw a sudden and somewhat unusual rise. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gave a speech on Wednesday, which may have sparked this unexpected movement. However, Lagarde had been speaking almost daily for the past three weeks without delivering anything new or market-moving. Thus, we continue to consider the daily flat on the higher time frame (D1) as a key factor. It is this flat environment that…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD 5M On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair didn't even attempt to continue its illogical downward movement. For the second day in a row, price action moved sideways with minimal volatility. There was once again no macroeconomic or fundamental news, leaving traders with nothing to react to for a fourth consecutive day. However, on Thursday, it was officially confirmed that the U.S. inflation report—originally in question due to the ongoing government shutdown—would indeed be published today. The fact that this news almost went unnoticed speaks volumes. The shutdown has become such a familiar occurrence this October that even the dollar remains unaffe…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Analysis, 5M On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly declined. Over the past couple of weeks, the dollar has accumulated several new factors that weaken its position against its competitors. Yet instead of a natural rise in the pair, we see either flat movement or even declines. From our perspective, the dollar should already be plunging into another downturn, so these "twitches" can hardly be called movement—nor are they particularly logical. The formal reason for the euro's decline on Thursday was the unemployment report in the euro area, which showed that the rate unexpectedly rose to 6.3%. This could have triggered pressure on the euro. However…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Analysis – 5M Chart The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no significant movement on Friday. Even on the hourly time frame, it is clearly visible that the pair remained in a total flat throughout the past week. Only once did the price attempt to break out of the range between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—on Thursday, when the unemployment rate in the Eurozone unexpectedly rose to 6.3%. All other, far more important, data was either ignored by the market or responded to very weakly. And that's a shame. There was plenty to pay attention to last week—starting with the U.S. government shutdown. It's hard to believe such a major event, which doesn't …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its decline, which it was "not at fault" for and did not deserve. Recall that the ECB meeting could reasonably be considered "conditionally hawkish," while the Fed meeting was "dovish." On Thursday and Friday, there were no significant macroeconomic releases in the Eurozone or the U.S. that could have triggered the euro's fall. The problem lay with the British pound, which had a mixed reaction to the Bank of England meeting (the only "dovish" decision was to reduce the volume of the QE program), and then collapsed due to new budgetary problems in the UK. The euro simply followed its "brother," as…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair continued its steady decline on Thursday. Interestingly, the drop didn't start after Jerome Powell's speech — the only major event of the day — but rather in the morning. It's unlikely the market was still reacting to the French political crisis for the fourth day in a row. It's becoming clear — something in the market isn't right: either market makers are manipulating price to feign the start of a downtrend, or market sentiment toward Donald Trump's policies has shifted. Either way, the pound continues falling and the dollar continues to rise. Powell said nothing new or significant in his speech, but at this point, the ma…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair also traded with gains on Friday, which seemed somewhat contradictory given the macroeconomic background, though it was perfectly in line with the broader context. The global fundamental backdrop remains sharply negative for the U.S. dollar, making any dollar strength appear as nothing more than a technical correction. On the daily timeframe (where the core correction unfolds), corrections lasting several weeks or even months are absolutely standard. On the hourly chart, such a correction or sideways movement often appears as a series of alternating trends. From a technical standpoint, the downtrend remains intact. The pri…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair opened on Tuesday with a sharp decline. This time, the market had legitimate reasons to sell the British pound: UK unemployment data and jobless claims came in well below expectations. Unemployment continues to rise, which on its own is negative for the economy. Beyond that, the Bank of England may consider restarting monetary easing due to weakness in the labor market. In short, Tuesday morning brought bad news for the pound. In the second half of the day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell came to the pound's aid. It's still unknown what exactly Powell said, but demand for the U.S. dollar began to drop sharp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Friday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a minor pullback, but by the end of the day, it had recovered most of its losses. While the euro appears on the verge of canceling a barely-started bullish reversal, the pound remains confidently within its emerging upward trend. Late on Friday, the price bounced off the Senkou Span B line—a critical signal that the market is ready to continue buying. There were no notable macroeconomic events on Friday. Therefore, we continue to expect more upward movement from the British pound. None of the global fundamentals support the U.S. dollar at this point. The situation for the greenback continues to de…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of GBP/USD – 5M Timeframe On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant throughout the day. There were absolutely no macroeconomic or fundamental events, and, even under such quiet conditions, volatility remained extremely low. Over recent months, volatility has been steadily declining, signaling reduced trader activity—something quite typical during flat market phases. It's worth noting that both the euro and the pound are in a sideways trend on the daily timeframes. Within such a flat range, price movements can be completely unpredictable. This week may bring notable events for both the pound and the dollar, but traders will have to wait. While inf…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD 5M Analysis On Tuesday, GBP/USD spent the entire day in a clear flat, which was visible on any timeframe. Unlike EUR/USD, which has been falling for two consecutive days, this behavior seemed logical, considering that there were no significant events or macroeconomic reports out of the UK or the U.S. on that day. From a technical standpoint, everything remains consistent as well. The pair initiated a new bullish trend structure, followed by a modest correction. At the time of writing, the price remains above the Senkou Span B line, which supports a continuation of the bullish sentiment. In our view, the rise of the British pound should resume regardless, as th…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
