Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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This article is a follow up from the previous article on the Australian Dollar titled AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? Is the Aussie Dollar Poised for Gains? As discussed in the previous Australian Dollar article titled AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? The Aussie Dollar may be poised for a rally. Since the interest rate decision by the RBA the Aussie Dollar has flattered to deceive. AUD/USD has faced a challenge given the US Dollars recent renaissance but that rally is likely to run out of steam soon in my opinion. The fact that the RBA are holding rates and the Fed expected to cut bodes well for the AUD/USD…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report “AUD/USD Technical: Further Aussie rally towards major resistance, supported by firmer China core inflation”, published on 10 September 2025. The price actions of the AUD/USD have indeed jumped as expected; it rallied by 1.2% to record an intraday high of 0.6690 on Friday, 12 September, Asia session at the time of writing, and hit the lower limit of the 0.6660/0.6680 major resistance zone mentioned in our publication. …
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Since a retest on its key medium-term “Expanding Wedge” range support on 22 August 2025, the AUD/USD has staged a minor bullish reversal and rallied by 3.2% (low to high) to print an intraday high of 0.6620 on Tuesday, 9 September 2025, on the backdrop of a broad-based weaker US dollar against other major currencies in anticipation of a Fed dovish pivot. Read more on US CPI Preview: Implications for the DXY & Federal Reserve …
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After Australia’s central bank (RBA) shocked market participants with its prior monetary policy decision in July to stand pat on its short-term cash interest rate at 3.85% in defiance of overwhelming expectations of a rate cut, the consensus forecast now is a 25 basis points cut to lower the cash interest rate to 3.6% on Tuesday meeting, 12 August as inflation pressures subsided. Q2’s trimmed mean gauge of inflation in Australia cooled to 2.7% from 2.9% in Q1, inching down closer to the midpoint of RBA’s 2%-3% inflation target. Even the monthly CPI rose by 1.9% y/y in June, easing from May’s print of 2.1%. Hence, RBA’s third interest rate this year, which is set for T…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The minor corrective pull-back of -2% seen in the AUD/USD ex-post FOMC from 17 September 2025 high of 0.6707 to 22 September 2025 low of 0.6575 has reached an inflection point to kick-start a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence. Fig. 1: …
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The Australian dollar began the trading week with a gap, closing at 0.6516 on Friday and opening at 0.6541 on Monday. However, sellers of AUD/USD were unable to close the gap, and during subsequent trading, the pair updated its two-week high, testing the resistance level at 0.6560, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the D1 timeframe (and simultaneously the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on H4). This price action is attributed to two reasons. First, AUD/USD traders reacted positively to the preliminary talks between the U.S. and China. Second, support for the Australian dollar came from the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar is approaching the boundaries of the 66 figure while updating local price highs. On Wednesday, the pair tested the resistance level at 0.6590, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the D1 timeframe. This is the highest price level since the end of October. It is important to note that the pair is rising not only because the U.S. dollar is weakening but also because the Australian dollar is strengthening. Even the negative figures released on Wednesday on Australian GDP growth could not deter buyers of AUD/USD; bullish sentiment still prevails in the pair. However, the disclosed report is not as bad a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The RBA will hold its final meeting on Tuesday, December 9. The market has already priced in this final act. Following the release of the latest labor market and inflation data, there is no doubt that the central bank will keep all monetary policy parameters unchanged. The GDP and trade balance reports published last week only confirmed these assumptions. However, this does not mean that the December meeting of the RBA members will be a "formality." Traders are interested in the central bank's future decisions. Previously, the market considered only two possible scenarios—rate cuts and maintaining the status quo. Now, some experts are not ruling out a third scenario that …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Key takeaways RBA pause likely: Hotter-than-expected inflation and a rebound in Australia’s services sector may prompt the RBA to halt its rate-cut cycle in November and December.AUD/USD supported: Renewed rate-differential advantage and easing U.S.–China tensions could lend short-term upside momentum to the Australian dollar.Key levels to watch: AUD/USD remains bullish above 0.6515 support, with resistances at 0.6595 and 0.6630. The Australian dollar has managed to catch a bullish beat last week, reinforced by a US-China trade tension de-escalation narrative ahead of the Trump-Xi in-person meet-up in South Korea on Thursday, 30 November 2025. The AUD/USD rallied by…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Australian dollar has strengthened its position against the U.S. dollar for the second consecutive week. The AUD/USD pair has surpassed the 0.6530 resistance level (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the Tenkan-sen line on the W1 timeframe) and is now approaching the crucial price barrier at 0.6570. At this price point, the upper line of the Bollinger Bands coincides with the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the D1 timeframe. It is important to note that the pair is rising not only because of the greenback's overall weakness but also because of the strengthening Aussie. The pair has shown an upward dynamic even during periods when the DXY ro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Key takeaways Hotter-than-expected October trimmed CPI and hawkish RBA communication have sharply reduced rate-cut expectations for 2026, with markets now pricing a >70% chance of a hike by end-2026.Australia’s 2-year and 10-year bond yield premiums over US Treasuries have widened to multi-year highs, boosting the appeal of AUD-denominated assets and supporting medium-term AUD/USD strength.AUD/USD maintains a short-term bullish bias above 0.6605, supported by a major trendline breakout, firm MACD momentum, and an RSI rebound from near-oversold levels. The hawkish parliamentary speech from RBA Governor Bullock in the past week and the latest monthly trimmed Austra…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, November 4, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will conclude its next-to-last meeting of the year. There is no doubt that the central bank will take a wait-and-see approach; this is the basic and most anticipated scenario. AUD/USD traders already priced in this scenario last week, when key third-quarter Australian CPI data was published. All components of the report came in positive, reflecting an acceleration in inflation. Additionally, the preceding statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia's head were also hawkish—at least in the context of the likely outcomes of the November meeting. Therefore, the formal results of the meeting are predetermined: t…
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On Thursday, starting in the European session, the Australian dollar sharply bounced against the U.S. dollar from the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) — this favors the bulls. By overcoming previous weakness caused by weaker-than-expected employment data in Australia, selling pressure on the dollar intensified following weaker initial jobless claims data from the U.S. Oscillators on the same chart are positive. The nearest resistance is around 0.6680; breaching this level will allow the pair to target the round number of 0.6700, and beyond that, the yearly high. A decisive breakout above the annual high around 0.6707 will open the psychological level of 0.6800 as the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At the conclusion of the Reserve Bank of Australia's December meeting, the central bank maintained all monetary policy parameters unchanged, including the interest rate at 3.6%. The central bank implemented the baseline, most-expected scenario; thus, initially, the Aussie declined across the market, including against the American currency. However, subsequent comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock turned the AUD/USD pair around, and the price again tested the 0.6650 resistance level (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe). It is worth noting that ahead of the December meeting, traders had heightened hawkish expectations regarding the RB…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Australian dollar has been rising against the US currency for the second consecutive week, setting new local price highs. On Wednesday, the Aussie tested the 66 figure in response to Australian inflation data. The pair reached a three-week high at 0.6620, despite the US dollar's overall strengthening. The US Dollar Index was trending higher on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's announcement of the results of its October meeting. However, despite the broader rise in the greenback, the AUD/USD pair was setting new price highs, primarily due to the Australian currency's strengthening. In general, AUD/USD traders were responding to the results of the forthcoming …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The AUD/USD pair has fallen to around 0.6550 at the moment, declining by 0.40% for the day. The exchange rate is under pressure from the U.S. dollar's recovery, following a positive meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders — Donald Trump and Xi Jinping — held on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea. The agreement between the two countries establishes a one-year trade truce, under which U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have been reduced from 57% to 47%. Both sides also committed to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans and to facilitate the export of rare earth metals to the United States. This diplomatic progress has eased fears o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the Australian dollar is attracting new buyers in response to aggressive statements from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock. From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair is finding some support near the 0.6610–0.6620 level. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory and are still far from the overbought zone, confirming a constructive short-term outlook for the currency pair. Buying above 0.6650 — the multi-month high reached on Monday — would create conditions for testing the yearly high, a level just above the round 0.6700 level set in September. On the other hand, weakness in the pair below the round 0.6600 leve…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the Australian dollar is attracting new buyers in response to aggressive statements made by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock. The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.6%. In the accompanying statement, the regulator noted that the Board will closely monitor incoming data and change assessments of risks and outlook when making policy decisions. During the press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that inflation and labor market indicators will play a key role in decisions made at the February meeting. She added that further rate cuts are unlikely to be necessary and that the Bo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the AUD/USD pair continues its consolidation near December highs as markets await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to announce its decision during the North American session today, and most analysts anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut. This expectation has been one of the key factors behind the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar to its lowest levels since late October and the notable rise in AUD/USD observed over the past two weeks. However, market participants prefer to refrain from aggressive buying and are waiting for additional signals regarding the Fed's future policy path. Key attention will be focused on updated economic p…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, on Tuesday, the AUD/USD pair attracted buyers on the dip, halting a slight pullback from the previous day, which came close to a three-week high. At the moment, prices have increased by more than 0.10% for the day and appear ready to continue the recent recovery from the November low. The Australian dollar continues to strengthen amid decreasing chances of further monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. On the other side of the pair, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure amid rising expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, there is a positive risk sentiment in the market, which reduces the U.S. dollar's st…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Australian dollar continues its intraday rise against the weakening U.S. dollar, reaching new highs not seen since late October and approaching the 0.6600 level. The market's initial reaction to weak Australian economic growth data proved short-lived, as expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have diminished. This factor remains a key driver supporting the Australian dollar. In addition, positive sentiment in equity markets helps offset a subdued report on China's services PMI and contributes to the Australian dollar's relative outperformance. Today, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele Bullock, spoke before a …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Australian dollar is once again trying to reach the boundaries of the 66 figure after a short-term drop to 0.6520. The corrective pullback was driven by the greenback's overall strengthening, which responded positively to the Federal Reserve's October meeting results. The central bank lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points but expressed doubts about the prospects of a December rate cut due to the ongoing government shutdown. Before the October meeting, the probability of a December rate cut was estimated at 95%, so the Fed's cautious signals were interpreted as favorable for the greenback. However, subsequent comments from Fed representatives and (especially…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The AUD/USD pair starts the new trading week in a bullish consolidation phase, fluctuating within a narrow range near the monthly high set on Friday, awaiting momentum from central bank actions this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. The central bank is expected to keep rates at their current level while focusing on inflation control. Moreover, last week, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock acknowledged that inflation has not yet reached the target range of 2–3% annually. Australia's economy is exhibiting the fastest growth in two years, and a stable labor market adds confidence in the potential for rate increases…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The market is confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep all monetary policy settings unchanged at its September meeting. This is the most widely expected scenario, and its outcome has already been factored into the price. The intrigue lies in the RBA's future actions, given the mixed fundamental backdrop ahead of the September decision. Last week's data showed that monthly inflation in Australia accelerated to 3.0% — the fastest pace since July 2024. However, the rise in CPI in August was driven mainly by temporary factors, particularly the expiration of "energy" subsidies in three states. The labor market delivered weak results: total employment in …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The AUD/USD pair has been in a zone of strong turbulence in recent days — on Wednesday, buyers made their presence felt at the 0.6709 mark, while on Thursday, sellers pushed it down to the lower end of the 0.66 range. Such swings are driven not only by the outcome of the Fed's September meeting. The Australian currency has also played a role, sharply reacting to the published labor market data out of Australia. The release did not favor the Aussie. Unemployment in August held at the previous month's level, i.e., 4.2%. On the one hand, this is "stability," but it's important to remember that the unemployment rate is a lagging and shaky indicator. Labor market cooling ca…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
