Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12184 tópicos neste fórum
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What's meant to happen will happen. EUR/USD has managed to revive its uptrend and is now heading toward 1.20. That's precisely where Goldman Sachs now sees the main currency pair. The bank has raised its 3-month forecast from 1.17 to 1.20, its 6-month forecast from 1.20 to 1.22, and projects that in 12 months, one euro will be worth $1.25. According to the bank, the euro is now leading the first stage of US dollar weakening. Later, the lead will pass to the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The foundation for the EUR/USD rally lies in divergences in economic growth and monetary policy. The cooling US labor market signals GDP deceleration. Meanwhile, increased spending on def…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, I wrote that America has shown its willingness to introduce new tariffs on imports from China and the European Union because these countries are buying oil and other energy resources from Russia—something the White House believes is prolonging the conflict in Ukraine. However, both Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent have also made it clear that they are unwilling to proceed with new tariffs without Europe's participation. On one hand, Washington's position is logical. What's the point of sanctioning India and China if the European Union keeps buying oil from Russia? First, Europe must completely stop buying Russian oil and gas, and only then can tariffs be in…
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In addition to everything mentioned above, it's important to remember that tariffs are not beneficial for the European Union. If Europe imposes duties on India and China, retaliatory tariffs and sanctions will follow. In my opinion, such policies only escalate geopolitical tensions. In recent years, there's already been too much talk about a potential World War III—a scenario we'd all like to avoid. Regardless, the European economy would suffer just as the US economy suffered if Brussels were to implement such tariffs. The issue of Slovakia and Hungary's oil purchases is especially unclear; both countries claim they have no alternative to Russian oil and are unwilling to …
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For the first time in 2025, the United States Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates while the S&P 500 is trading at all-time highs, and according to The Kobeissi Letter, the time has come for an important shift in markets that could usher in the next crypto market bull run. As it stands, record stock valuations, resilient GDP growth, sticky inflation, and cracks are forming in the labor market, leaving the stage open for volatility in traditional markets that could spill over into the next explosive altcoin season. Fed Rate Cuts At Record Valuations Expectations are also high that the Fed will keep lowering rates at the next interest rate decision on W…
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Pantera Lithium (ASX: PFE) said on Tuesday that shareholders overwhelmingly voted in favour of the proposed sale of its subsidiary Daytona Lithium Pty Ltd to Energy Exploration Technologies (EnergyX). Daytona Lithium indirectly owns mineral rights in southwest Arkansas, and EnergyX is progressing its project Lonestar Lithium in the Smackover with its near completed demonstration plant. This summer, EnergyX bought another 35,000 acres in the Smackover, an underground geological formation stretching from Florida to Texas filled with lithium-rich brine, in a $26 million cash and shares deal, upping the company’s stake to 47,500 acres. Analysts estimate the Sm…
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Ethereum has shown signs of strength after completing a healthy pullback. Having met and retested its $4,811 target, ETH is now holding firm, suggesting the correction phase may be over. If buyers regain control, the path could open for a powerful rally in the near term. Ethereum Pulls Back, But Bullish Signals Confirm Strength Javon Marks, in his most recent update, emphasized that ETH reached the $4,811.71 target before entering a pullback phase. Despite the temporary dip, bullish signals have re-emerged, indicating that ETH has regained strength and could soon retest this important level. He noted that surpassing the $4,811.71 zone would mark a decisive step forwar…
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Binance is in talks with the US Department of Justice to remove the independent monitor that was assigned after the company’s massive $4.3 billion settlement last year. The monitor’s job was to keep an eye on whether Binance was fixing the compliance issues that got it into trouble in the first place. These discussions are still underway, but the two sides appear to be moving closer to an agreement. Why the Monitor Was Put in Place The monitor wasn’t just there for show. It was installed to oversee Binance’s operations from the outside and make sure the company was actually improving its internal systems. Regulators wanted assurance that Binance was cleaning up its handl…
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MetaMask has officially launched its own stablecoin, MetaMask USD (mUSD), adding a new player to the expanding lineup of dollar-pegged tokens. What makes mUSD different is that it’s issued directly by the MetaMask wallet itself, which means users stay in control of their funds at all times. There’s no central platform holding your money for you. It’s all self-custodied, straight from the wallet. How It’s Built and What Backs It The stablecoin is created through a platform called Bridge, which works in partnership with Stripe. Behind the scenes, the minting process runs on a protocol called M0. This setup is designed to offer both transparency and reliability. Each …
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Ethereum rallied again this week as fresh institutional demand and heavy ETF inflows pushed traders to consider higher price paths. According to market reports, some analysts now see a possible run toward $8,500 if current buying continues and macro conditions remain calm. Institutional Flows Drive Interest Based on reports, one day of ETF inflows was reported at close to $730 million, a figure that traders said helped limit selling pressure and lift market confidence. Standard Chartered has been cited with a year-end forecast of $7,500, while other market commentators and smaller research groups have floated targets as high as $8,500. That mix of big-name bank views…
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With the Federal Reserve set to announce policy on Wednesday, September 17, a closely followed trader has laid out a precise, level-by-level playbook for navigating Bitcoin’s next move. In his weekly “Market Outlook #51,” published on September 15, Nik Patel (@cointradernik) for Ostium Research maps out both long and short triggers around a tight cluster of resistance at $117.5k–$120k and a “line in the sand” support at $112k—frameworks he argues should contain BTC’s path through the FOMC and into quarter-end. How To Trade Bitcoin Into September FOMC Nik’s higher-timeframe read starts with a strong weekly close that reclaimed the August open near $115.3k and, crucially, …
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Bitcoin price is moving higher above $116,200. BTC is now consolidating and might gain bullish momentum if it clears the $116,850 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $116,000 zone. The price is trading below $116,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at $115,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $116,850 zone. Bitcoin Price Hits Resistance Bitcoin price started a fresh upward wave above the $114,500 zone. BTC managed to climb above the $115,000 and $115,500 resistance levels. The bulls were…
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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, but this time the rally was much stronger. None of Tuesday's published reports played any significant role for traders. European data allowed room for the euro to rise, but, for example, industrial production came in weaker than forecast. US reports didn't interest the market at all: retail sales and industrial production came in above expectations, yet the dollar still fell all day. As we've said many times, the dollar has plenty of global fundamental reasons to fall, even in the absence of local macroeconomic catalysts. We've repeatedly noted that even technical analysis on…
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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair also continued to move north, though not as strongly as EUR/USD. The uptrend on the hourly timeframe remains, as evidenced by the trendline, while UK statistics released yesterday morning had no real effect on the pound's growth. All three UK reports published were dull and neutral, almost exactly matching economist forecasts. They simply couldn't provoke a rally throughout the day. The same applies to US data (industrial production, retail sales), which also beat forecasts and should have supported the dollar, not the pound. However, the US currency still has plenty of fundamental reasons for decline, an…
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The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday clearly showed what traders expect in the near future. Despite a very weak macroeconomic backdrop, the euro rose all day and broke above the July 1 high, which was also the highest value in the last three years. For us, there's really nothing surprising here, as we've said many times: the dollar has no chance to grow, except for technical corrections. Over the last five weeks, upward movement has been quite weak, but the euro keeps climbing, not the dollar. The dollar more or less corrected for about a month, and now the decline has resumed. Granted, this is no longer a collapse like in the first half of 2025—but it's still a decline. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. In the morning, the UK reports on unemployment and wages were published, but these only allowed traders to draw conclusions that had no impact on their trading decisions. For instance, the unemployment rate remained at 4.7%—what are we to conclude from that? Or the pace of wage growth slowed slightly (but stayed within forecasts)—what does that mean? Will the Bank of England take these figures and their results seriously? In our view, the UK data package was utterly pointless. On Monday, there were no significant releases or events in either the US or the UK, yet the pound kept rising at the same rate al…
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CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index has jumped from 20 to 50 in just four days, suggesting a swift shift out of bearish territory for the asset. Bitcoin Bull Score Index Is Back In Neutral Region In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has talked about the latest trend in the analytics firm’s Bull Score Index. This indicator basically tells us about which phase of the market Bitcoin is in right now. The index combines the data of several key on-chain metrics to determine its value. Some of these indicators include the Market Value to Realized Cap (MVRV) Ratio, keeping track of average investor profitability on the network, and the Stablecoin Liq…
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Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $4,620. ETH is now trading below $4,620 and might extend losses if it stays below $4,585. Ethereum is now correcting gains below the $4,620 zone. The price is trading below $4,600 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,580 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it settles above $4,580 and $4,620. Ethereum Price Faces Hurdles Ethereum price started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above the $4,650 zone, like Bitcoin. ETH price corrected gains and dipped below the $4,600 support. There was a move belo…
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Although Ethereum (ETH) is still up approximately 80% over the past three months, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap appears to have lost its momentum lately, down 0.6% over the past month. Binance Ethereum Trading In Neutral Zone According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Ethereum trading on Binance during September 2025 is witnessing a period of relative calm compared to other months. Notably, there has been a decline in the imbalance between ETH spot and perpetual volumes. Commenting on ETH’s recent price surge, which saw it jump from $2,127 on June 15 to around $4,500 at the time of writing, Arab Chain noted that this rally …
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XRP price started a downside correction below the $3.050 resistance. The price is now recovering losses and faces hurdles near the $3.080 zone. XRP price is consolidating losses after declining below the $3.120 resistance. The price is now trading below $3.080 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $3.00 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if the price clears the $3.080 zone. XRP Price Attempts Recovery XRP price started a fresh decline below the $3.120 level, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price dipped below the $3.020 level to enter …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement. The hourly timeframe clearly shows the formation of a new bullish trend, and on the daily timeframe, the trend of 2025 is officially back in force. There's no point even searching for new reasons behind the dollar's latest fall. None of the four somewhat important reports yesterday had anything to do with the euro's growth. US retail sales and industrial production both exceeded forecasts, which should have caused the pair to fall. However, the global fundamental backdrop continues to exert powerful pressure on the US dollar. From time to time, the dollar does correct,…
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher, but in a much calmer and more familiar fashion. The trendline remains relevant, so only further growth of the British pound should be expected, both in the short and long term. Yesterday's UK reports were bland and were clearly not the reason for the pound's rise. US figures beat forecasts, but the market simply ignored them. Today, an important UK inflation report is scheduled for release in about an hour and a half. The Fed meeting is later in the evening, and the Bank of England meets tomorrow. Therefore, volatility over the next 24 hours could be elevated, and we might see a lot of sharp…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday, but it's worth reminding novice traders that yesterday's calendar was also full of data—yet none of it had any impact on the dollar, euro, or pound. So a similar situation might occur today. For instance, what should we expect from the second estimate of eurozone inflation, when this reading already has almost no impact on the ECB? US construction and real estate data are unlikely to be more important than industrial production and retail sales, which the market ignored yesterday. Thus, the only data of real interest is the UK inflation report. Fundamental Events Analys…
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Circle Internet Financial (CRCL), the firm behind the USDC stablecoin, has announced a significant investment in Hyperliquid (HYPE), a layer-1 blockchain that has experienced high demand this year. Circle’s Strategic Move Into Hyperliquid As part of this initiative, Circle has launched Native USDC and Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP V2) on HyperEVM, an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) integrated into Hyperliquid’s layer-1 blockchain. This move is expected to streamline the adoption of USDC and enhance its utility. Plans also include enabling direct deposits and ensuring CCTP interoperability for Hyperliquid USDC on HyperCore, a platform that specializes in on-chain f…
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Solana started a fresh increase above the $240 zone. SOL price is now consolidating gains below $240 and might aim for another increase if it stays above $230. SOL price started a fresh upward move above the $240 and $242 levels against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $240 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $238 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend losses if it dips below the $230 zone. Solana Price Consolidates Gains Solana price started a decent increase after it settled above the $220 zone, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed ab…
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The British pound gained 47 pips yesterday, closing above the target level of 1.3631. The range between 1.3631 and 1.3700 looks too fragile amid the upcoming Fed decision on monetary policy. The 1.3525–1.3631 range appears slightly stronger, but the truly solid and strategically important range is 1.3364–1.3525, which the pound left behind after short futures contracts were closed ahead of today's Fed meeting. The Fibonacci time grid points to the completion of the growth cycle since August 1 (8 periods)—a collapse may follow today. A move below 1.3525 (coinciding with the MACD line) will open the way to 1.3364 (the lows of July 16 and June 23), then to 1.3253. On the …
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