Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The upcoming week will be very important for the U.S. dollar. The currency will attempt to hold its ground, but it will be difficult to withstand the pressure from market participants. Most economists expect further weakening of the dollar, driven by instability in the U.S. economy, the threat of rising inflation, the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, and Donald Trump's influence on the Fed. Therefore, the period of calm for the dollar has not yet arrived. Individual events in the U.K. or the Eurozone may put pressure on the euro and the pound, allowing the dollar to strengthen from time to time. However, the situation in the United States is of far greater concern to…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Relatively important data may play a role. This is how the dollar's prospects look for next week. There will be a few U.S. reports, but there are still no alternatives. In America, I can highlight the Producer Price Index, retail sales, and durable goods orders as interesting reports. There is also a whole list of reports that were supposed to be released, but it seems the Bureau of Statistics will not provide them. I remind you that the U.S. Bureau of Statistics only resumed its work last week and is currently busy filling in the gaps for October and November. To be more precise, it hasn't even reached November yet, and the October reports for September are already of li…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
When discussing the U.S. news landscape in mid-October 2025, it is more appropriate to list which reports will NOT be published this week — and there will be many. For example, it is unlikely that market participants will see any retail sales data or industrial production figures. The Consumer Price Index is also very likely to go unpublished. So what remains? Only a speech by Jerome Powell. He could have provided the market with guidance last week on how the Federal Reserve plans to proceed at the end of the month, but opted not to do so. It's important to remember that the FOMC Chair has historically been very cautious in his public statements. The longest government sh…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar will once again be the "trendsetter" in the upcoming week. More precisely, it will be the trendsetter of movements. In the last two weeks, demand for the U.S. currency has declined, but prior to that, the American currency had been rising in value for nearly two months on rather dubious news foundations. I would like to remind you that the dollar's rise coincided with the entire "shutdown" period in the U.S., which set a new record duration of 43 days. Therefore, the current decline in the American currency is, first, weak and, second, justifiable. However, in the upcoming week, several events in America could turn the market against the upward trend. The …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday's U.S. GDP report triggered a surge in demand for the U.S. dollar and a sell-off in risk assets — and it comes as no surprise. According to the data, the U.S. economy grew in the second quarter at its fastest pace in nearly two years, after the government revised its previous estimate of consumer spending. According to the report released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 3.8%, based on revised data. This is higher than the preliminary estimate of 3.3%, and clearly much stronger than the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. The acceleration in economic growth was primarily dr…
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Cboe BZX and NYSE Arca are tired of waiting around. The two exchanges have filed proposals asking the SEC to make it easier and faster to list crypto ETFs. If the rule change is approved, they wouldn’t have to submit a separate request for every single product. Instead, a standard framework would handle the listing process for ETFs that meet clear criteria. The SEC crypto ETF approval process has long been slow, often dragging on for months with little clarity. How the Rule Would Work Right now, every new crypto ETF has to go through the same slow process. The exchange files a 19b-4 form, the SEC takes months to review it, and sometimes there’s no clear decision until th…
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The U.S. Department of Commerce has decided to anchor its official GDP numbers on public blockchains. Instead of only releasing the data through government websites, it now posts them on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and several other networks like TRON, Avalanche, Stellar, Polygon, and Optimism. The move gives the data a kind of digital permanence while making it accessible to anyone watching these chains. Data Is Locked In with Cryptographic Hashes The latest GDP update for July 2025 showed a 3.3 percent growth rate. Rather than uploading the entire document, the department published cryptographic hashes that prove the data hasn’t been tampered with. In some cases, the he…
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The results of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Tankan survey for September, released on October 1, showed an improvement in the business conditions index (DI) by 1 point compared to June for large manufacturers, reaching +14. The index for large non-manufacturing firms remained at a very high level of +34. Forecasts for capital investment and current profits also remained stable despite tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. This provides a solid basis for expecting another round of wage increases next year, which in turn supports concerns about persistent inflationary pressures. Overall, the Tankan report contributed to the arguments in favor of a rate hike at th…
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Jobless Reincarnation A potential U.S. government shutdown on October 1 could not come at a worse time for financial markets. Just two days later, the September employment report. the most closely watched piece of economic data, is scheduled for release. With traders laser-focused on U.S. job growth as a guide for Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, any delay would leave markets sailing without a rudder. Why the Timing Matters The Fed is walking a tightrope: despoite Trump’s Pressure on the Fed Jobs market: Data shows signs of softening, raising recession concerns. Inflation: Remains sticky, keeping the Fed cautious on cutting rates too quickly. The non-farm payro…
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The U.S. dollar faced a number of challenges yesterday following the release of weak manufacturing data. However, remarks from Federal Reserve representative Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, helped ease the pressure. The policymaker stated that he wants to see more data before deciding how to vote at the December central bank meeting but warned that he is currently more concerned about inflation than the labor market. "I haven't made a decision ahead of the December meeting," Goolsbee said Monday in an interview with Yahoo Finance. "I'm concerned about inflation, since it has been above the target for four and a half years, and the trend…
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Today marks the start of the U.S. House’s first-ever “Crypto Week,” a move that puts digital asset legislation front and center in Washington. Lawmakers are gearing up to vote on a set of bills that could define how crypto is regulated in the years ahead. Congress Puts Digital Assets in Focus Three major bills are on the schedule. The first is the CLARITY Act, which aims to settle the long-standing question of whether crypto tokens are securities or commodities. It proposes a clear distinction to avoid confusion over which agency oversees what, and it would give developers more room to operate without running into unexpected legal challenges. Then there is the Anti-…
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Donald Trump took office for a second term in January 2025, promising to reduce the U.S. national debt, cut the budget deficit, address immigration issues, and revive American manufacturing. His campaign was powerful and full of grand promises — pledging a "Golden Age" for the American people. Nine months into his presidency, it's time to assess the early results. The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals. In the first quarter, U.S. GDP fell for the first time since 2022, but in the second quarter, it posted its strongest growth since 2023. In other words, it's too early to say definitively whether the U.S. economy under Trump is expanding or contracting. It's worth notin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. government is preparing to add around 127,271 bitcoin, valued at roughly $14.2 billion, into what it now calls a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. During a joint operation with UK authorities, these coins were confiscated in connection with a massive crypto fraud operation led by Chen Zhi, a Chinese national tied to the Cambodia-based Prince Group. Instead of offloading the assets as it typically would, the government appears ready to hold the Bitcoin. The move marks a potential turning point in how states treat digital assets, suggesting that officials now see this stash as a long-term financial tool rather than something to liquidate. A Web of Scams, Trafficking, an…
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Are bouyant markets due for a reality check? U.S. Tariffs: Markets Stay Calm, But Inflation and Stagflation Risks Loom Global markets have so far shrugged off the latest round of U.S. tariffs, a stark contrast to the panic selling that followed the Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs announcement. But beneath the calm, questions are piling up. With higher tariff rates imposed on August 7, 2025, the real economic impact has yet to hit. Is Wall Street trading with blinders on, betting on political reversals, or simply hoping the fallout will be contained? NAS100 Weekly Chart Why the Calm May Be Misleading Is this the calm before the inevitable storm? Jobs Market …
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According to the data, in September of this year, the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly fell to its lowest level since mid-2020. This happened thanks to a sharp increase in exports. The Commerce Department report states that the trade deficit in goods and services shrank by nearly 11% compared to the previous month, reaching $52.8 billion. Economists' average estimate had projected a deficit of $63.1 billion. U.S. exports rose by 3%, reaching the second-highest level on record, driven by shipments of gold and pharmaceuticals. Imports increased more modestly—by 0.6%. Taking into account the data for all three months, net exports likely made a fairly strong contribution to G…
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A company based in the UAE has invested $100 million in the Trump-linked WLFI (World Liberty Financial) Token. On 26 June 2025, WLFI and Aqua1 Foundation, a Web3 native investment fund, jointly announced their collaboration as a strategic manoeuvre to turbocharge the blockchain ecosystem for applications related to real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation, stablecoins and decentralised finance (DeFi). Aqua1 Foundation’s investment in this venture dwarfs the next biggest investment in the token made by Justin Sun, Tron’s founder, who invested $30 million in the Trump-linked WLFI in November last year. Dave Lee, the founding partner at Aqua1, said, “Aqua1 and WLFI will work t…
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Uber is now exploring stablecoins as a way to streamline its global payment system. That might sound surprising coming from a rideshare company, but when you’re dealing with money flowing through dozens of countries, faster and cheaper matters a lot. CEO Flags Stablecoins as a Potential Game-Changer At a recent Bloomberg tech summit, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said the company is actively looking into stablecoins. Not Bitcoin. Not Ethereum. Just the boring, practical kind that are tied to real-world currencies. His reasoning is simple. When a company like Uber operates across 70-plus countries, every international payment comes with currency conversion fees, delays,…
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Analysts at UBS have lifted their gold price targets for next year in anticipation of higher safe-haven demand from persistent US macroeconomic risks and de-dollarization trends. During the March quarter, the Swiss bank now sees gold averaging $3,600 an ounce — $100 higher than its previous forecast for the period as well as its current forecast for year-end 2025. For June and September 2026, gold prices are expected to rise even further, averaging $3,700 an ounce for both periods. UBS says the revised gold forecasts reflect its expectations of robust demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks, coupled with a global shift towards bullion as the pre…
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UBS Group has raised its 2026 mid-year gold price target to $4,500 an ounce, up from $4,200 previously, as the Swiss bank sees further momentum in a rally that has already lifted the metal 56% higher this year. In a note published Thursday, UBS analysts said the macroeconomic forces behind gold’s recent rise, including Fed rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties and US policy changes, are expected to keep demand elevated next year. A worsening US fiscal outlook is likely to sustain central bank and investor gold buying, given its lack of counterparty risk, the UBS analysts said, adding that it expects exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand to remain strong in 2026. I…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Amid global mine disruptions and strong momentum on the demand side, UBS sees copper prices rising even higher heading into next year, with a market deficit that is expected to widen. In a note published on Friday, UBS analysts lifted their copper price forecasts for successive quarters of 2026, beginning with $11,500 a tonne for March, followed by $12,000 and $12,500 for June and September respectively. They also introduced a first target for December at $13,000 a tonne. The new forecasts, according to the bank’s analysts, are largely down to persistent supply risks and falling inventories that are expected to keep conditions tight. UBS noted that mine…
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Asia’s wealthy are ramping up crypto allocations as trading surges and regulation matures worldwide. Is this uptick among Asian investors driven by strong market performance, expanding institutional access, or the regulatory environment in key markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and the US? A 21 August 2025 Reuters report states, “Wealth managers said they are receiving more enquiries, cryptocurrency exchanges have seen trading volumes surge and crypto funds are in huge demand as high-net-worth Asian investors seek more exposure.” In fact, Swiss bank UBS recently saw overseas Chinese family offices planning to raise their crypto exposure to around 5% of their portfoli…
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The Labour government is set to release a crucial budget plan on November 26. Instead of announcing new spending, the main goal is to prove that the government is being careful with money to keep financial markets stable. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a tough challenge as she tries to stick to the strict financial rules she created for herself. Her plan focuses on three main priorities: reducing the time people wait for healthcare (NHS), paying down the country's debt, and lowering the cost of living for everyone. Read More: Gold Price Forecast: Bullion rallies to $4,118 key level as markets increase Fed rate cut bets The Immediate Fiscal Challenge and the OBR Downgrade …
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The British pound continues to decline, which can be explained by the tough stance taken by the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves. Yesterday, she refused to reaffirm the Labor Party's stated commitment to avoiding large-scale tax increases and made an unusual appeal to the British public to support her upcoming budget. In her speech on Downing Street, Reeves stated that her priorities would be lowering borrowing costs and reducing inflation. She also blamed the previous Conservative administration for placing prolonged pressure on public finances, citing austerity policies and the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. Investors, accustomed to softer rhetor…
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The UK government is cracking down on financial networks and crypto systems that it believes are helping Russia get around Western sanctions. This latest move targets a cluster of platforms linked to a Kyrgyz-based stablecoin operation used to quietly move money across borders. A7A5 Stablecoin Raises Red Flags A rouble-backed stablecoin called A7A5 sits at the center of the enforcement. According to UK officials, the token was used to process around nine billion dollars in transactions within four months. That kind of volume, paired with its activity through Kyrgyz channels, raised concerns that it was built to sidestep restrictions. Reaching Into Kyrgyz Financial I…
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Dundee Precious Metals (TSX: DPM) has secured UK court approval for its acquisition of London-based silver-zinc miner Adriatic Metals (LON: ADT1), a deal that it now expects to close this week. On Friday, the Toronto-based company said the High Court of Justice in England and Wales has sanctioned the $1.25 billion cash-and-stock deal that was announced in mid-June. With this approval, the deal is expected to go ahead and be completed on Wednesday, it said. Post merger, Dundee and Adriatic shareholders will respectively hold 75.3% and 24.7% of the combined company. Its global headquarters will be kept in Toronto, while Adriatic’s UK office will shut down. Separ…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
