Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11949 tópicos neste fórum
-
Most Read: WTI Rangebound: How Stalled Peace Talks & OPEC Strategy Will Shape the Oil Market American consumers felt slightly better about the economy in early December, according to a survey released on Friday. The Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan went up to 53.3 this month, an improvement from 51.0 in November, and slightly better than what economists expected. However, the overall mood remains gloomy. The main problem is that consumers are still very worried about high prices (inflation) and are not very optimistic about the job market. On a positive note, consumers expect price increases to slow down slightly: they now anticipate inflation …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - UK Budget in Focus as Global Equities Eye Recovery Market participants are eyeing the US Dollar Index (DXY) as it hovers above the crucial 100.00 barrier. The greenbacks recent rally has been impressive but may fail to gain traction unless acceptance is achieved beyond the 100.00 psychological level. A break above the 100.00 psychological level is no surprise to market participants as we have seen two forays beyond this handle in recent weeks. Having broken below the 100.00 mark in May of 2025, the DXY has attempted two recoveries prior to the current one. The result? A significant materialized each time the DXY attempted a push hig…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Technical Breakdown & Key Levels Amidst Dollar Strength The US Dollar has been enjoying a renaissance of sorts this week with gains largely down to US data not being bad at all. Looking at the data this week, the sales rate for US new homes spiked back to levels last seen in early 2022. The report on US economic growth (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) was revised up significantly, showing the economy grew at a rate of 3.8% instead of the earlier estimate of 3.3%. A big reason for this improvement is that consumer spending (personal consumption) was much stronger, rising by 2.5% instead of 1.6% Perhaps even more important, the number o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The role of the US Dollar is always evolving, with different factors going from demand for USD-denominated assets, settling commodity trades, cross-currency trades and many others affecting the Reserve currency. A reminder that the Dollar had held impressive strength since the beginning of the 2022 hike cycle and 2025 Trump-Dollar nervosity has marked a longer-run top (for now). April and peak tariff fears had formed what looked like a bottom but the rebound was found again with sharp rejection – since the dollar has returned to its downtrend but it seems that flows are shifting in the current geopolitical landscape. The upcoming FOMC meeting (Wednesday June 18th) will…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar is trading heavier against most of the world's currencies today. Better than expected Australian employment data, which boosts speculation that the central bank's easing cycle is over, helps explain the Australian dollar's gain to its best level of the month. However, sterling is firm and extended yesterday's gains despite news that the economy contracted in September and barely grew at all in Q3. September industrial output in the eurozone disappointed but the euro reached $1.1635, a new high for the month, as well. Emerging market currencies are also firmer, but for a few East Asian currencies, and the Turkish lira. Equities are mostly higher. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The dollar has begun the new week under pressure, though many financial centers are closed today. The upside pressure on Asia Pacific currencies remains notable. The offshore yuan, the Taiwanese dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, the Japanese yen, and Australian dollar are among the strongest currencies today. The ostensible trigger is speculation of US semiconductor tariffs to be announced Wednesday and continued speculation of a "Mar-a-Lago" currency agreement modeled as it were on the 1985 Plaza Accord that drove the dollar lower. Less fanciful is the idea that the US will seek local currency revaluation in trade talks. Many local markets will re-open tomorrow. T…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The dollar is heavy today. It is weaker against nearly all the world's currencies. The ongoing elevated trade tensions between the US and China continue to be the main talking point today. US rates were soft before Fed Chair Powell spoke yesterday and remain soft, at the same moment when market participants seem to be demanding a higher premium of hold dollars given the policy uncertainty, not to mention the continued shutdown of the federal government, with both sides showing little movement. Contrary to expectations from many, China has not weaponized the exchange rate and instead set the dollar's reference rate at its lowest level since last November. Meanwhi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
There has been some violent moves around markets since yesterday's North-American session close. Between the misstep in Nvidia’s earnings release and renewed political tensions in the U.S, markets had plenty of fuel for volatility across the board. The USD gapped up on the news that the US Federal Court blocked the Trump's sweeping tariff policy - though volatility induces more volatility and the dollar is now the weakest currency on the day. Trying to make sense of these moves - USD Chart close …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Selling flows in the US Dollar have came back promptly after the Iranian repost on the US Base of Al-Udeid in Qatar – What was previously thought to have the potential to be a new phase of a prolonged conflict materialized into a cease-fire. A build-up of angst through last week trading sent markets gapping strongly at the weekly open, but all of these moves largely reversed. The story is largely similar to August 2024 preceding tensions between Israel and Iran that led to similar reversals. The Dollar index is now back into the 98 handle and back into its 2025 descending channel. Equity markets just now turned from fear to greed and it seems that players have already …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 16 Trump shook markets today after signing Miran’s papers for him to join the Federal Reserve committee, just hours before the start of the central bank’s 2-day meeting. The Fed's independence is in question here with the move from Donald Trump to appoint his Economic Adviser at the FED just as the meeting commences. The move sent the US Dollar tumbling close to its 2025 lows (96.55 today vs. 96.37 on July 1st), igniting a new wave of selling. Dollar bears came back in force, with the Swiss franc standing out as the preferred hedge against the greenback’s weakness ahead of tomorrow’s session. This bre…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Greenback has recovered some of its Sunday open losses, as the DXY touched a low of 98.65. The Dollar has rallied well in the past two sessions as Memorial Day gave strength to the USD. A contributor to this USD strength have been recent comments from Japan's Mister of Finance announcing that they would supply less JGB's - the buying of the latter weakened the JPY and some rebalancing towards US Assets. The Dollar is coming off a rough week after Friday, 16th May, Moody’s Credit Rating Downgrade led to some broad USD selling, which led to Bitcoin consolidating above prior all-time highs and Gold making a comeback towards $3,300. The Canadian Dollar on the other ha…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. We are now passed the feared and anticipated September FOMC meeting and since last week, the US Dollar has seen some whipsawing up-down action. While originally thought that a less-dovish-than expected Powell at the past week's FOMC press conference could invert the downward path in the greenback, comments made yesterday at a Rhode Island conference put-back more emphasis on a weakening job market. A dovish interpretation of this most recent turnaround has sent the dollar down, but in today's session…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Traders are getting back to their desks after a prolonged weekend – Both the United States and Canada were celebrating Labor Day yesterday. The week prior to Labor Day tends to see slower movement and thinner volumes and despite recent volatility, this year was not an exception. Rangebound conditions have dominated currency markets since Powell's change of tone which shook up rate expectations for the FED – The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, coming up on September 18, is close to a promised cut (90% of a 25 bps cut priced in). Volatility is now back on its feet to kick off the month. With the UK Government bonds opening the week with fresh concerns, a huge selloff …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Strongest Major currency of the past month, the Dollar had swept through most of its peers powered by a hawkish repricing, assumed by the Market after Powell's speech at the October 29th FOMC (You can access it right here). The Federal Reserve Chair made many more mentions of their dual mandate to monitor both Employment and Inflation compared to the September meeting which had seen a tilt towards employment (meaning tariffs were posing an issue yet again). The rough numbers and downward revisions to NFP in August and many other labor releases had warranted such a dovish turn from the Fed during the early Summer, but also caught people by surprise when data did not cont…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational pu…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
In previous outlooks, I concluded that the fate of both major pairs once again largely depends on the news flow from the United States. And this isn't just about the events listed in the classic forex calendars, but also the developments surrounding the Trump vs. Fed standoff, the trade war, and the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. Still, for now, these events are not having a strong direct impact on the FX market. The key event will be the Federal Reserve meeting, even if the decision is already priced in. Nobody in the market doubts that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points for the first time since last year. However, labor market weakness is intensify…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview where we look at the NA Indices and currencies. This week has been a typical end-August trading week, with mostly rangebound markets and volumes subdued – As pointed in our previous day Market Wrap, the most influential participants tend to take the final weeks of August to take their breaks off Markets. Hence, the price action has been held in tight ranges for FX Markets. Equity Markets have seen some profit-taking since Friday's post-Powell rallies, with the S&P holding close to its previous highs (is the most recent double top going to get cancelled by hungry-for-cut bulls?), the Dow Jones still holding aro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
As indicated by the minutes released from the Federal Reserve's October meeting on Wednesday, many policymakers expressed concerns that lowering interest rates could increase the likelihood of issues related to price stability, raising the risks of higher inflation levels. Nevertheless, some officials acknowledged that small steps toward reducing the funds rate by the end of the year might be justified, considering the overall economic backdrop. A significant share of voting members rejected the idea of additional easing in December. They insisted on maintaining the current monetary policy until clearer signals about the labor market and inflation rates emerge. This divi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The decline of the dollar index (USDX), which began yesterday during the Asian trading session, accelerated significantly after the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% rate cut. Although this decision was anticipated by the market, accompanying statements and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is ready for further rate cuts in the upcoming year. During the press conference following the policy meeting, Jerome Powell underscored the Fed's willingness to "wait and see how the economy evolves," but raising interest rates in the future is not part of the baseline scenario. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 27–28. The rate-settin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The American dollar will set the tone for the entire currency market in the coming week. However, if my readers have just entertained the thought of a busy economic calendar, I must burst that bubble. The "shutdown" continues in effect in the US. While the shutdown itself has ended, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other government agencies have not yet been able to gather all the necessary information or fill the statistical gaps. For example, the next reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation will only be released next week, on December 16 and 18. This means they will come after the FOMC meeting. I have often discussed the impact of the lack of statisti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US dollar and upcoming US reports will be the market's primary focus. However, this time, significant events also take place in the EU and the UK. In most cases, the market trades the dollar, while the euro and pound remain spectators in the theater, but there are important events everywhere. The Federal Reserve has lowered the interest rate three times at the end of 2025, but demand for the currency has weakened only slightly in response. In my opinion, the market has not yet fully absorbed these three monetary policy easings, and it seems to have forgotten about the potential "shutdown" and its possible resumption in February 2026. Therefore, I believe that the news…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The American currency remains a main paradox in the currency market. Whereas its movements from January to June raised no questions, given the news background, many questions have arisen in September and October. First, the corrective structure, which was supposed to be simple and clear, unexpectedly began to complicate and take on a very elongated appearance without any clear reason. Second, the demand for the US dollar is rising (as we examined in the previous two reviews), for which there is no basis at all. As a result, the wave analysis is becoming more complex, and many market participants do not understand what is happening. There will be several important events i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Key takeaways Dow Jones outperforms as major US AI stocks tumble — the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 dropped 2.1% and 1.2%, while the Dow fell a milder 0.5%.Financials show resilience with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley holding steady or posting modest gains, signalling no systemic stress.Technical setup favours a rebound, with the Dow Jones holding above its 20-day moving average and bullish signals emerging from the RSI momentum indicator. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tumbled on Tuesday, 4 November, by 2.1% and 1.2% respectively, weighed down by an 8% plunge in Artificial Intelligence (AI) favourite Palantir Technologi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
If you’re looking for US economic data, you’ve come to the right place. A rare mix of optimism and uncertainty is steering the final weeks of 2025, with investors rotating back into risk assets even as the United States enters a murky period of incomplete information. With that said, the latest JOLTS report surprised many with 7.66 million openings in October, up from 7.23 million in August and nowhere near the drop economists were betting on. Hiring stayed flat at 5.1 million, and quits and layoffs barely moved. The picture is that the labor market won’t cool and won’t give policymakers the clean narrative they want. Learn m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US government shutdown officially took effect at midnight, immediately clouding the economic calendar with uncertainty. You can track the latest headlines on the shutdown right here. Key releases, including the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls and weekly Jobless Claims, are set to be delayed — leaving markets grasping for alternative signals on the labor picture. That made today’s ADP private employment report all the more critical, and it disappointed: a sharp miss at –32K versus +52K expected, coupled with yet another downward revision for August (-3K vs +54K announced). This should at least keep rate cuts hope high with a 25 bps cut still 99% priced in. On the m…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
