Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11939 tópicos neste fórum
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US Senator Cynthia Lummis has reignited speculation that the United States could move to materially increase its Bitcoin holdings, after posting a Bitcoin-themed image on X with the caption: “₿ig things coming for Franklin!” Lummis Revives Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Hype The image is drawn as a children’s book cover titled “FRANKLIN BUYS BITCOIN AND FINDS FINANCIAL FREEDOM.” At the center sits Franklin, a cartoon turtle in a backwards red cap and bandana, seated at a wooden desk. In front of him is a laptop emblazoned with the orange Bitcoin logo, clearly signaling that he is using Bitcoin-related software or services—most obviously, buying or managing BTC. Franklin’s eye…
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In the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics data, preventing a more interesting day, participants are focusing on today's ISM Services PMI report closely Markets just received the report for the US ISM Services PMI, which slipped right around contraction territory at 50.0, missing expectations of 51.6 and down from the prior 52.0. The services sector — which makes up the bulk of US economic activity — is closely monitored as it reflects both consumer and business demand momentum, PMIs, particularly for the services sector, had been holding strong despite tariffs starting to bite into companies' profit-margins and activities, but things are starting to change. Now a fe…
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Consecutive misses on US data in the North-American Morning Session as the US Services PMI came in at 49.9 vs 52 expected. Equity markets which rallied back after the miss on ADP Data, gapped right back down as Services Data, which has been holding strong throughout Hike cycles and geopolitical certainty is now showing weakness. New Orders, deliveries, production and Employment are contracting while prices are increasing at the highest pace since November 2022. Markets are not pleased with this news as we start to see a shift in PMI data, tariffs are starting to have an impact. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business I…
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Gold’s new record and a fresh US government shutdown put crypto on edge, with Bitcoin hovering near $116,000 as traders brace for data blackouts and a foggier Fed path. The United States entered a federal government shutdown overnight, rattling markets worldwide. Gold surged to an all-time high, while the dollar weakened, as crypto traders debated whether risk aversion would weigh on or support digital assets. (Source: Coingecko) Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$116,000s, fairly steady on the day, by the end of Wednesday. There were wider crypto shifts that were uneven, and the large caps were experiencing both small gains and losses. Gold hit a new intraday high…
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The United States has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, in a move that could disrupt global bullion flows and deal major blows to key gold hubs like Switzerland, the Financial Times reported late on Thursday. A Customs and Border Protection letter dated July 31 — later seen by FT sources — shows that these gold bars have now been reclassified under a customs code subject to duties, reversing earlier expectations that they would remain exempt. The tariff reversal comes amid heightened trade tensions between Bern and Washington, as the latter recently slapped a 39% import tariff on the European nation. Switzerland, as the world’…
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Institutional money is pouring back into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs at record rates. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds kicked off the week with a combined $217 million in net inflows, while Ether ETFs added another $62.11 million, continuing a strong start to July. BTC ▲0.19% volatility may be on summer break, but with this sort of volume, Q3 and Q4 are set to send many coins to all-time highs. Increasingly, investors are asking: Why wouldn’t the world adopt the Bitcoin standard instead of impotently complaining about the inflation of fiat currencies year after year? Here’s what’s next for the price of Bitcoin: BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF Smashes Through 700,000 BTC Accordin…
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Clean Core Thorium Energy (CCTE) a Chicago-based company developing thorium-based nuclear fuel, announced a milestone for its patented Advanced Nuclear Energy for Enriched Life (ANEEL) fuel, which it said has now reached a burnup level of over 45 gigawatt-days per metric ton in the advanced test reactor at the US Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This level, CCTE said, outpaces the capabilities of conventional nuclear fuels used in pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) and CANDU reactors – Canadian pressurized heavy-water reactor design used to generate electric power. In February, the privately- held company raised a $15.5M Series Seed r…
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Less than two hours to the December FOMC! Time is ticking before the FOMC meeting, and volatility has stayed remarkably contained in Stocks—a stark contrast to the Oil market, which saw its price battered again in today's session. Still, the Dow Jones is outperforming its peers, so traders are expecting a positive outlook for the Industrial index – Watch out for bad surprises! What is certain is that things should start moving heavily towards the afternoon. With today's FOMC meeting also releasing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)—including the famous "Dot Plot"—expect a wave of repricing as traders scramble to explore the different scenarios for 2026, partic…
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Friday provided a sharp shift in post-FOMC flows. The strong rallies in Equities—particularly in defensive sectors—turned sour as Fed members began to voice concerns regarding their recent decision. The bounce in the Debasement Trade following the Fed meeting came as a surprise, especially given that the cut and projections were more defensive than aggressive. Indeed, making a dovish case for 2026 is proving difficult, with the recent Dot Plot indicating only 1 to 2 cuts for the coming year. zoom_out_map …
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US stock indices ended the session mixed amid rising gold and cryptocurrency pricesThe S&P 500 rose 0.36%, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.41%, while the Dow Jones declined by 0.14%. Demand for gold reached a new record amid ongoing political crises, and Bitcoin also showed significant growth. Analysts note that the rise in safe-haven assets points to continued investor caution, particularly given the high valuations of equities. Read more at the link. Stock market remains resilient despite risksThe stock market continues to show strength despite headwinds such as overvalued assets and trade tariffs. The S&P 500 has hit 32 record highs this year, driven by developments …
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Potential deep drop in the S&P 500 after the Fed's announcement Analysts forecast that the S&P 500 index could face a significant decline following the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates. The index is expected to potentially drop into the 5916–5973 range, posing risks not only of a short-term correction but also of a long-term recession for the U.S. economy. Investors are seriously concerned about the possibility of slower economic growth if the Fed opts for a more hawkish stance. The market remains cautious as it awaits the outcome of the meeting. [More at the link.] US stock indices close lower amid Fed rate decision anticipation Yesterday, m…
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US stock indices hit record highs amid Fed decisions and Nvidia investments The largest US stock indices closed the trading session at new historical highs. This significant growth was driven by two powerful factors. First, the Federal Reserve decided to lower the key interest rate, which had a positive impact on market expectations and increased capital inflow into stocks. Second, the market was inspired by news from Nvidia: the company announced plans to invest $5 billion in Intel's stock. This initiative triggered a strong rally in the IT sector, particularly with Intel shares soaring a record 22.8% in a single day. The success of the tech sector and the Fed's polic…
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Market sentiment improves amid US–China trade talksUS major stock indices continue their rally. The S&P 500 rose by 0.49%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.72%, both setting fresh all-time highs. Market sentiment is improving on the back of ongoing discussions regarding trade agreements between the United States and China. Strong quarterly earnings from tech companies also provided additional support to the market. Experts note that if the current positive trend continues, the indices could reach new levels by the end of the month. [Read more] No alarming bubbles in the stock market Investors point out that, despite elevated asset valuations, there are no signs of "sc…
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US stock market closes in red amid Fed policy uncertaintyThe US stock market ended the day in the red, with the S&P 500 index falling amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's next steps in monetary policy. The US Labor Department reported a decline in initial jobless claims, signaling a stable labor market. At the same time, analysts note that the persistent gap between strong employment data and investor sentiment is contributing to heightened market volatility. Read more at the link. S&P 500 and Nasdaq under pressureOn Thursday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices dropped by 0.50%, as investor concerns grew over elevated stock valuations …
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The weekly close turns more cautious after a strong run for tech and growth stocks. Some technical concerns had risen on Tuesday after a huge risk-off/profit-taking session that wasn't explained by any particular fundamental change. Both the S&P 500 (6,764) and Nasdaq (25,195) printed fresh record highs over the past 24 hours, capping a stellar stretch for the sector — though the Dow Jones, still below last Friday’s 47,000 peak, hasn’t quite kept pace. As explained in our previous session analysis, this divergence has started to drag sentiment. The rest will be to see how far it influences overall stock performance. Read More: US stocks sector divergence raises…
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US indices are riding an intense wave of optimism following the Federal Reserve’s 25-bps rate cut, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all pushing higher. (As I write this piece, some profit-taking might be into play, watch the daily highs for a further push). Nvidia (NVDA) sparked extra momentum after announcing it would acquire part of Intel’s (INTC) equity, sending Intel stock soaring over 25% in early session trading. Tech peers like CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Synopsys (SNPS) also extend gains, underscoring a broader sector rally. …
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US stock indexes closed the New York session on Friday with their biggest plunge in a year. The S&P 500 fell by 2.71%, while the Nasdaq 100 sank by 3.56%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.90%. During today's Asian trading session, futures on US stock indexes edged higher after President Donald Trump signaled readiness to strike a deal with China, which improved market sentiment following the shock from a sharp escalation in trade tensions. Futures on the S&P 500 rose by 1.3%, and Nasdaq 100 contracts gained 1.8% after the administration softened its rhetoric following Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on China in response to Chinese export control m…
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Having found support yesterday and undoing some, if not all, losses from Friday’s sell-off, US equities have met selling pressure early in today’s session. The Dow Jones (US30) currently trades at around $42,417, down -0.22%The Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) currently trades at around $21,854, down -0.33%The S&P 500 (SPX500) currently trades at around $6,015, down -0.33% Read analysis from yesterday’s session: Stock indices recover, Gold stays bid and Oil corrects – Intra-day chart updates Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, offic…
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The US stock market has entered a new phase following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of the year. The decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points was widely anticipated and already priced in by market participants — but how Jerome Powell framed the move sparked active debate. The Fed Chair described the decision as a "risk management" cut, emphasizing that the central bank has no risk-free path forward. In other words, the rate was lowered not due to panic or a sharp deterioration in economic conditions, but rather as a preemptive step to balance the risks of an economic slowdown and to preserve labor market stability. Investors interpreted this as…
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US Equities have gone into yet another spectacular run but after delivering a strong open, they start to show some hesitancy. As the Bureau of Labor Statistics reopened, traders were initially concerned that the first public US data releases wouldn't be supportive of a December Fed cut—a worry that partially fueled the mid-October to end-November struggle. However, since NY Fed President Williams appeared with a dovish speech that reset expectations, things have been back to normal, almost as if nothing happened the past two months. The rebound has been massive: The Dow Jones is trading close to 48,000, the S&P 500 came shy from 6,900, and the Nasdaq is less than …
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This morning's ADP release was not enough to trigger large volatility in Markets. The data came in at -33K vs a consensus of 95K, a consequential miss that led to a subdued market reaction. US Equity futures had gone up in the overnight session with the S&P 500 just grazing new all-time highs (6,229 on its CFD) and markets are now correcting, with however a slow but steady grind. ADP Employment measures private employment by US Firms and concerns around 30 millions of Americans , which represents a bit less than 10% of the US Population – Its correlation to the Non-Farm Payrolls data is not significant, a reason why reactions to ADP releases are less accentuated tha…
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The week has started with wiggly trading, leaving traders firmly on the fence when it comes to risk-sentiment. Despite the broader market indecision, a few specific names are holding the major indices together, notably Alphabet (Google), which trades higher by 4% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.3 billion stake in the company. Names like Tesla and the semiconductor giant Micron (MU) are also providing support. However, most stocks are trading close to unchanged or slightly in the red at the open. zoom…
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Equities have enjoyed a remarkable run, with major indices pushing to fresh highs — from last Friday’s Dow peak above the 47,000 milestone to yesterday’s record closes in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Since June–July 2025, following the end of the 12-day Israel–Iran conflict, markets have been ecstatic, printing new all-time highs almost every week. Yet, beneath the surface, some divergences are starting to show. The S&P 500 now stands 9.5% above its January 2025 high, the Nasdaq is up 12.5%, but the Dow Jones has gained only 3.6% — a notable gap that hints at sectoral imbalance. A weekly look at US Indices …
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The open was timid after the small beat in NFP that is getting outshined by the tick-up on the Unemployment Rate (UE Rate), leading to a worsening sentiment. (You can check the details of the report right here). A focus on the UE rate by Market Participants is logical, after a few months of unreliable public labor statistics from the US Stat Agency (the BLS). Still, they released October numbers at -105K (November came at +64K), which contributed to the higher UE. A concern on the growth of temporary jobs outshining long-term jobs is something to note for the alarmists, but private payrolls are also stabilizing after a long-lasting drop. …
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Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw their first red month since April 2025 in what proved to be a highly volatile trading period. Up and down swings were a common theme as sentiment soured pre-US Government reopening before seeing a tentative improvement. A late-month stark rebound managed to erase most of the monthly losses, but it seems that risk-appetite is catching a cold to begin the new month. A key warning regarding last week's rebound lies in the aggressive repricing of the Federal Reserve's path: the probability of a 25 bps cut at the December 10th FOMC meeting surged from roughly 20% to almost 90% in just a few days. …
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