Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Shares of USA Rare Earth (Nasdaq: USAR) jumped nearly 20% on Friday after CEO Barbara Humpton told CNBC that the rare earth miner is “in close communication” with the White House. Humpton, speaking in an interview with CNBC late Thursday, addressed speculation about the company’s interest in striking a deal with the White House. USA Rare Earth did not immediately respond to a MINING.COM request for comment. The stock rose 19.5% in morning trading in New York, giving the company a market capitalization of about $3.1 billion. US steps up critical minerals push The development comes as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to secure supplies of strategi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar is extending the pullback seen ahead of the weekend. It is softer against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies today. However, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched, and, perhaps, some US participants will want to wait to see the outcome of President Trump's meeting with Democratic leaders in Congress before extending the greenback's sell-off in the face of what the possible government shutdown starting Wednesday. Equities are mostly advancing. Japanese equities were the chief exception in the Asia Pacific, with the Nikkei dropping 0.7%, and Taiwan markets were closed. The Hang Seng led today's rally with a nearly 1.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar is trading firmer against nearly all the G10 currencies. The yen is the best performer, and it is virtually flat despite the swing toward BOJ hike next month. Expectations have steadied for a Fed cut next month around 80%. The November inflation reports from the largest eurozone members failed to inspire the market and the euro's four-day advance is being threatened. Sterling's favorable reaction to the government's budget stalled yesterday near $1.3270 after starting the week below $1.3100. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The Chinese yuan is a little firmer, even though the PBOC lifted the dollar's fix for the first time in six sessions. Gl…
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It has been the second day where North Americans see no particular market-moving data after last week's key releases, but this hasn't stopped the session from being volatile. Today has seen some heavy reshuffling in stocks from Tech and Semiconductor Sectors to Healthcare, FInancial and Real Estate sector in what seems to be some closing of positions as we approach the Key earnings releases for some of the biggest names in American Markets: Tesla and Google earnings are awaited tomorrow. The Nasdaq closes down 0.60% and the Dow up 0.40% – Even the Russell 2000 has seen some new flows towards the smaller-cap index in the session. Except for these reshufflings, some furt…
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The American dollar experienced a modest gain yesterday against a range of risky assets. This movement was attributed to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which indicated that consumer inflation expectations in the US remained stable in November, while perceptions regarding job prospects improved. In the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the expected inflation rate for the coming year remained virtually unchanged at 3.2%. Meanwhile, the expected inflation rate for three and five years ahead held steady at 3%. The perceived probability of job loss decreased to 13.8%, representing the lowest figure of the …
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Overview: The US dollar is firm. The only G10 currency that is stronger today is sterling, which is recovering from yesterday's sharp losses and the UK's drama eased following Prime Minister Starmer's support for Chancellor Reeves. Of note most of the final June PMI readings were revised higher from the initial estimates. The US struck a trade agreement with Vietnam, the third deal reached, and the clear intent is to deter it from re-exporting Chinese goods. Meanwhile, the US also lifted export requirement for chip design software sales to China, which would seem to imply that the administration is satisfied with the resumption of rare earth and magnet shipment to the US.…
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Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. We are now halfway through the week, and the main storyline has shifted squarely toward the US government shutdown, which has sparked a sharp N-shaped (for nope) reversal in the US Dollar. The greenback had been climbing steadily after a streak of upbeat economic data — GDP, jobless claims, and Powell’s more balanced-than-dovish tone last week pushed the DXY to fresh highs near 98.60. But shutdown rumors quickly flipped the narrative, triggering heavy selling pressure in the reserve currency, currentl…
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Under pressure for much of 2025, the dollar (DXY) is on track for its best weekly gain since February, driven by hawkish Fed commentary following yesterday’s interest rate decision. In today’s session: The US Dollar (DXY) currently trades at around $98.95, up +0.09%EUR/USD currently trades at around 1.14744, down -0.02%Ahead of the open, Dow Jones futures trade -0.36% lower Read more on the Asian session: Asia mid-session: Fed flags stagflation risk, US dollar rebounds, risk-off in equities close …
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Despite a rough monthly open, the US Dollar is currently trading within a key technical range, a factor that holds FX Markets firmly in balance despite some individual breakouts seen in pairs like NZD/USD or GBP/USD. As is often the case ahead of pivotal events like the FOMC, the Dollar may test relative extremes, but it rarely poses definitive breakout situations. The best example of this was ahead of the September Fed Meeting, where the Dollar rushed to make new lows but was inevitably constrained by the bounds of its previous yearly support zones. The catalyst for the current downside came from NY Fed President John Williams' speech on November 21, which fundamental…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The dollar has steadied today after yesterday's jump. Asia and Europe do not seem to be as enthusiastic about the dollar as North America seemed to be yesterday. President Trump indicated that sectoral tariffs on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals could be announced as early as August 1. He also said that there will be more bilateral deals announced. The greenback is mostly a little softer against the G10 currencies, with the Scandis the notable exception, unable to find much traction. Emerging market currencies are softer except for central Europe, the Chinese yuan, and the Mexican peso. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate higher today for the third c…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US dollar experienced a significant decline yesterday following reports that American companies cut jobs in November by the largest amount since the beginning of 2023, which heightened concerns about a more pronounced deterioration in the labor market. According to the data released by ADP Research on Wednesday, the private sector lost 32,000 jobs, while economists had anticipated an increase of 10,000 jobs. The weak ADP report published yesterday intensified fears of a faster worsening of the labor market outlook ahead of the Federal Reserve's final meeting for the year, which is set to take place next week. The report may have a greater impact than usual, given t…
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Most Read: Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview: AI, Azure, and Outlook USD/CAD is eyeing its 5th consecutive day of gains, but with two Central Bank meetings to navigate will such a move materialize? Bank of Canada (BoC) Keep Rates on Hold The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate steady at 2.75% in July 2025, as expected. This marks the third hold after cutting rates by 2.25 percentage points over seven decisions. The Bank said it couldn’t provide clear guidance on the economy due to uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs, which continue to disrupt global trade. Despite the challenges, Canada’s economy has remained resilient, with strong employment and positive growth p…
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Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Hovers at $3350/oz, Russia-Ukraine Developments in Focus USD/CAD advances in the US session, trading above the 100-day MA as the potential for further gains grows. There are of course headwinds for the pair which could scupper a move higher in the coming days. Geopolitical Risk The important meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska ended on Friday without any major progress. However, Trump said on Monday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy could end the war with Russia quickly if he chooses to. Trump, Zelenskiy, and key European leaders are set to meet later today to discuss ending Euro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: S&P 500, Dow Jones Q3 Outlook: Tariffs, Tech, and Small Cap Concerns USD/CAD has been on a grind off late having finally broken out of a brief period of consolidation thanks in part to a moderate US Dollar recovery and stalling Oil prices. USD/CAD has however, failed to find acceptance above the 1.3700 handle thus far and this may be something to note for bulls moving forward. Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on USDCAD with 57% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means US…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair has reached the target resistance at 1.3860. A pullback is possible, as the price is essentially within the sideways range observed in the second half of April. However, the Marlin oscillator is confidently starting to rise in positive territory, so the probability of the price consolidating above the 1.3860 level is more than 50%. After such consolidation, growth toward the next target resistance at 1.3958 is possible. It's also worth noting the price's attempt to pull away from the balance line after unsuccessful attempts to drop below it from September 5–9. This signals the price's desire to accelerate its rise. On the H4 chart, the price beg…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Meeting Preview: Maintaining the Status Quo. Implications for USD/JPY USD/CAD is at a crossroads in many ways and the technicals are showing some interesting patterns. Given that both the Fed and BoC chose to cut rates today could the technicals lead the way in the weeks to come? There is a possibility that the technicals could dominate for now but moving forward I expect the pace of rate cuts to come into play as well as the performance of Oil prices, which will impact the Canadian Dollar. Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and following the trendline breakout at the end of July and rally to just above the 1.3900 …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the Day The loonie has recovered in the US session after starting the day on the back foot. The move was more driven by the US dollar than any developments on the side of the Canadian Dollar. The loonie has come under pressure in recent days as oil prices have also retreated to fresh lows. When it comes to USD/CAD, the loonies weakness coincided with a rally for the US Dollar which has defied the US Government shutdown and US-China tensions to leave the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near recent highs. Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and USD/C…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The USD/CAD pair has been actively declining over the past few days. The decline was triggered by Tuesday's inflation report from Canada, which showed all components within the "green zone." This allowed USD/CAD sellers to go on the offensive. Over the previous four weeks, the pair had been steadily rising, climbing from 1.3720 to 1.4080 (a six-month high). Following the inflation release, it fell back into the 1.39 zone. Still, bears failed to overcome the 1.3970 support level, which aligns with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily timeframe. This suggests that the broader upward trend remains intact — despite accelerating inflation in Canada. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The USD/CAD pair has been trading within a clearly defined upward trend for five consecutive weeks. Key drivers include the dovish stance of the Bank of Canada, softness in the oil market, decelerating inflation, and a mixed labor market landscape in Canada. The start of the pair's current upward momentum can be traced back to the Bank of Canada's September meeting, where the central bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. Policymakers expressed concern over the slowing economy: GDP decreased by 1.6% year-over-year (vs. a forecasted 0.6% contraction). This marks the weakest reading in four years, since Q2 2021, when Canada's economy shrank by 3.2%. Multiple macr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
October 29 is an important day for the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada will hold its next meeting. Most analysts believe the result of the October meeting will be a 25-basis-point interest rate cut due to the slowdown in the Canadian economy. However, some experts do not rule out the possibility that the central bank will adopt a wait-and-see position or implement a "hawkish cut." This scenario is not out of the question, given the inflation growth data published last week in Canada. To remind, the overall consumer price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month in September. Despite pessimistic forecasts, the index emerged from negative territory (down 0.1% in August), re…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair attempted to attract buyers but failed amid mixed fundamental signals. Nevertheless, spot prices are comfortably holding above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Weak Canadian labor market data released on Friday strengthened market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of Canada at the September 17 meeting. Naturally, this pressures the Canadian dollar, serving as a key factor that could allow the pair to rise. At the same time, a modest recovery in crude oil prices limited the downside potential of the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar has also weakened, falli…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The USD/CAD pair is trading near the confluence of the 9- and 14-day EMAs just below the 1.4027 level. The technical setup on the daily chart shows a stable bullish bias. The RSI (14-day Relative Strength Index) is holding slightly above 50, confirming moderate bullish sentiment. However, short-term momentum is weak, as evidenced by the pair trading below the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA). A breakout above the confluence of the nine-day and 14-day EMAs around 1.4027 will strengthen short-term price momentum and support the USD/CAD pair. After that, prices may retest the new seven-month high near 1.4140, reached on November 5. Continued upward movement would op…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, Thursday, the pair attracted buyer interest as it attempted to recover yesterday's losses; however, the attempt was unsuccessful, and the pair remained at the same price level. Current prices show no confidence in growth, hovering just above the 200-day SMA. The U.S. dollar index made attempts to recover today, which provided important support for USD/CAD.Nonetheless, significant dollar strengthening should not be expected, as most market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week in December. These expectations were reinforced by the weak ADP employment report, which showed that private-sector employers unexpectedly cut 32,000 jobs i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The USD/CAD pair is struggling to strengthen after a decent rebound from the round level of 1.3800, which is the lowest value since September 22. At the moment, spot quotes fluctuate around 1.3850, but traders are cautious and avoid opening active positions amid mixed fundamental factors. Optimistic employment data from Canada, published last Friday, reinforced the Bank of Canada's "hawkish" outlook, which typically supports the Canadian dollar and puts pressure on USD/CAD. At the same time, the potential for CAD appreciation is limited by risks that the United States, under President Donald Trump, may introduce new tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fer…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Spot prices have surpassed the key 1.4000 level. Oil prices opened the new week with a strong bullish gap, partially offsetting last week's decline in response to the softer tone from US President Donald Trump regarding the threat of imposing 100% tariffs on imports from China. This has reduced fears of an escalating trade conflict between the two countries while simultaneously raising concerns about a slowdown in demand. Additionally, the Canadian employment report released on Friday exceeded expectations, showing an increase of 60,400 jobs in September. This supported the commodity…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
