Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11938 tópicos neste fórum
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The USD/CHF pair has attracted buyers for the sixth consecutive day, reaching its highest level since August 12. This momentum has pushed the price above the key level of 0.8100 and is supported by ongoing U.S. dollar purchases. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, has reached a more than three-month high due to the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Also, Fed Chair Jerome Powell refuted market expectations of another rate cut in December. These factors help alleviate concerns about the economic risks associated with the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, while continuing to support the dolla…
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On Wednesday, the Japanese yen was rising amid a general weakening of the US dollar. Tensions surrounding trade tariffs escalated on Tuesday after China announced new special port fees for American vessels arriving at Chinese ports. This move came alongside tightened Chinese export restrictions on rare earth metals and threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 100%. In addition, Trump threatened to halt trade with China on several goods, including cooking oil, and responded to China's decision to stop purchasing American soybeans. These developments have raised concerns about a further escalation in the trade conflict between the world…
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After two months of a relentless rout in the Yen, the Japanese currency is finally finding some stable ground. The core of the current reversal lies in the clash between the administration’s fiscal policy and the central bank’s monetary response: fiscal recklessness has finally been met with monetary soundness. Prime Minister Takaichi has been pushing to implement massive stimulus packages, while also pressuring the Bank of Japan to keep rates low to support these projects. Still, Markets don't get by the "cheap money" concept, which has led to a precipitous 5% to 8% move in the JPY against most majors since the beginning of October. To balance things out, a round of…
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USD/JPY After two days of consolidation, the USD/JPY pair has exited the target range of 151.70–152.10 and is now, in our view, heading toward the closure of the price gap left on October 6. Along this path, the pair faces two key support levels: 150.50, represented by the MACD line, and 149.38, a target level marked by the peak from July 16. Once the gap is closed, the price may complete the current downward leg within the 146.29–146.59 target range — a strong support zone formed during three months of consolidation. The Marlin oscillator is leading price action lower, providing a strong indication of the market's current bearish direction. On the four-hour chart, the …
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Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair reversed from the local resistance at 153.28. A new medium-term target was likely set on October 10, as the price did not reach the 154.00 target. The reversal occurred under the influence of a divergence on the daily scale. To solidify a medium-term movement, the price needs to establish itself below the target range of 151.70-152.10. The MACD line is located just below this range. Breaching 151.70 becomes strategically significant, as bears are considering advancing in the medium term. On the four-hour chart, the price's drop below the MACD line coincided with the Marlin oscillator moving into a downtrend territory. This indicates a rapid …
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The USD/JPY pair has spent the past week in a complicated, confusing game with false moves in both directions. The most recent of these was a deep false breakout below the 146.29 support level with Wednesday's lower shadow. Now, the price will attempt to break through and consolidate above the daily-scale MACD line (148.28). If successful, the price could climb above the first target level at 149.38 and continue rising into the target range of 151.70–152.10. The Marlin oscillator has established itself in bullish territory, joining this main upward scenario for the pair. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is moving sideways. This is a sign of an impending co…
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USD/JPY On the weekly chart, the price has moved above the Balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is speeding up its upward movement. The target along the embedded price channel line at 151.45 is open. A firm hold above this level will open the way to the 157.70 target. Despite the almost unequivocal outlook for this scenario, there is one powerful reason it might not materialize—a financial crisis in the US, accompanied by a deep drop in stock indices—something akin to what happened from February to April, when the S&P 500 plummeted by 21%. True, USD/JPY declined unevenly and unsynchronized during that period, but the crisis was not as systemic as i…
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USD/JPY, arguably the most volatile FX currency pair, has certainly held its reputation this year with a constant flurry of uptrends and downtrends. The first half of the year, demarcated by widespread dollar-selling, took the pair to lows not seen since September 2024 at 139.20. However, a Liberation Day bottom in the dollar followed by a prolonged multi-month range led to a huge, decisive rebound in the pair. Fundamentally, the still large yield differential—between the near-zero 0.50% in Japan and the persistently above 4% for the US 10-year yield—remained a fundamental boost underpinning demand for the US Dollar against the Yen. This phenomenon significantly acce…
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When the USD/JPY was free-falling toward 146.00 before the election results, few traders could have imagined such a sharp reversal was about to unfold. Appointed in early October as a replacement for the departed Prime Minister Ishiba, PM Sanae Takaichi immediately turned on the taps of massive economic support for the Japanese economy. The issue for yen bulls is that the Bank of Japan was on track to normalize monetary policy—after two decades of ultra-loose conditions—amid a return of inflation. That trajectory now faces resistance from a prime minister eager to influence the BoJ, saying she “strongly hopes the BOJ conducts policy appropriately” in a speech at the Jap…
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The Japanese yen has recovered intraday losses that were previously driven by domestic political instability in Japan. The ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito collapsed, creating uncertainty as newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi seeks support for confirming her leadership. The strategy remains consistent—continue the economic stimulus policies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, focusing on aggressive fiscal spending and accommodative monetary measures, while simultaneously strengthening the yen's role as a haven currency amid global geopolitical instability. On the U.S. side, international trade tensions have escalated sharply. T…
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Most Read: AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? The recent USD/JPY price action has been characterized by a significant pullback, registering heavy losses for the first time in three weeks after encountering strong resistance near the psychological 150.00 mark. The immediate downward momentum is predominantly driven by external headwinds weighing heavily on the US Dollar. These factors include downbeat US labor data, volatility associated with a potential US government shutdown, and a general risk-on mood among investors. The resulting anticipation of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in October and December remains "practically intact," compressi…
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The recent three-week rally of 4.5% in the USD/JPY, from its 1 July 2025 low of 142.68 to the 16 July 2025 high of 149.19 (a three-month peak), has reached a potential inflection zone of 149.00/149.60, where the next probable move is a decline back towards the bottom of a three-month ascending sideways range configuration in place since 22 April 2025. Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks) A clearance above 149.60 shifts the focus back to the bulls for a range breakout scenario to propel the USD/JPY higher for the next resistances to come in at 150.40 and 151.15/30 (medium-term swing highs of 3 March/27 March 2025). Opinions are the…
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USD/JPY has extended its gradual decline from the 28 July 2025 high of 150.92, losing -2.6% to reach an intraday low of 147.00 at the time of writing. Today’s Tokyo inflation data and August consumer confidence figures reinforce expectations of a potential 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October, as it continues along its path of monetary policy normalization. Tokyo inflation and Japan consumer confidence support another BoJ rate hike …
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This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, USD/JPY Technical: Potential impending minor bullish breakout for Japanese yen, published on 8 August 2025. The emergence of the Japanese yen’s strength has materialized as expected that saw the USD/JPY recording a week-to-date drop of -0.9% at this time of writing and breaking below the first support of 146.60 highlighted in our previous report (printed an intraday low of 146.21 on Thursday, 14 August). Dovish Fed Funds rate futures pricing triggered by US Treasury Secretary‘s jawboning The recent bout of Japanese yen strength has been yesterday’s jawboning by a key US White House official, the US Treasury S…
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The recent movement of the USD/JPY has been very choppy as it continues to trade within a four-month-plus “Ascending Wedge” range configuration since its 22 April 2025 low of 139.89. The initial 0.8% intraday rally of the US dollar against the Japanese yen at the start of this week’s Asia session on Monday, 8 September 2025, to hit an intraday high of 148,58 has evaporated as the USD/JPY is now trading almost unchanged week-to-date as of Thursday, 11 September, at 147.40. Market participants have largely looked beyond the political uncertainty stemming from Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, shifting their focus to factors that could shape the Bank of Japan’s ongoin…
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Earlier last week, the USD/JPY surged to a four-month high of 150.92 on 1 August, but its prior accumulated gains of the previous four sessions were all wiped out and formed a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” at the close of last Friday, 1 August US session. These observations suggest a potential bullish breakout on the USD/JPY above the key 200-day moving average and the upper boundary of its medium-term ascending range configuration in place from the 22 April 2025 low as it reintegrated back below the 149.50 level. Since the start of this week, 4 August, through today’s Asian session on 8 August, the Japanese yen has lagged behind other major currencies against the gr…
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This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY Technical: Yen eyeing a medium-term bullish breakout against USD from a 5-month range”, published on 17 September 2025. The USD/JPY dropped further on Wednesday, 17 September 2025, with an initial intraday loss of -0.7% to print an intraday low of 145.48 before it reversed up higher ex-post FOMC to close higher and erased all its initial losses, reinforced by Fed Chair Powell’s “less dovish” press conference. The USD/JPY has managed to survive at the 145.95 medium-term support (the lower boundary of the “Ascending Wedge” range configuration) in place since the 22 April 2025 low of 139.89 and…
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This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY Technical: Mild JPY strength detected ahead of US CPI”, published on 11 September 2025. In the last four weeks, the US dollar has weakened significantly against several major currencies, such as the euro, which rallied to a 4-year peak against the greenback on Tuesday, 16 September, but the bearish momentum of the US dollar has lagged against the Japanese yen (see Fig. 1). …
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Market Insights Podcast (24/11/2025): As we start week 48, join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the end-of-week rally in US equities, the upcoming UK budget on Wednesday, ever-changing expectations of the FOMC meeting in December, as well as the latest on the FX markets, including JPY and AUD. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range…
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Key takeaways AUD is leading the FX space on renewed RBA hawkishness, while the JPY remains the weakest major currency as BoJ signals flexibility on policy.USD/JPY’s recent five-day rally is losing steam, with momentum indicators and resistance confluence pointing to a potential minor bearish reversal.A break below 156.00 on the USD/JPY could open the way toward 155.35 and 154.40, while a move above 157.15 would negate the downside setup. In the FX market, a “K-shaped” performance has emerged with the AUD rallying and outperforming among the major currencies against the US dollar due to the hawkish monetary policy guidance from the Australian central bank, RBA. In t…
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Key takeaways BoJ policy shift intact: Japan’s central bank is still moving gradually toward policy normalization, supporting renewed yen strength.Tankan survey improvement: Q3 2025 Tankan survey for large manufacturers improved to 14, its highest since Q4 2024, boosting economic confidence.Yield spread narrowing: US-Japan yield differentials are shrinking, making US Treasuries less attractive versus JGBs, pressuring USD/JPY lower.Technical setup: A break below 146.30 may trigger a medium-term bearish breakout, exposing deeper downside targets. After trading in a choppy sideways range for almost five months since late April 2025, the Japanese yen is likely on the br…
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At the start of the new week, the Japanese yen is under pressure. Data released today showed that Japan's service-sector inflation rose again in September, reinforcing expectations of an imminent rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Since consumer inflation in Japan has exceeded the BoJ's 2% target for more than three years, the latest figures point to the need for tighter monetary policy from the central bank — although this has not yet translated into yen strength. Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, regarded as the successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is known for her stimulative economic approach. This raises concerns about the stability of the Bank …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
From a technical perspective, a break above the 153.25–153.30 level, which marks the monthly high, and a further increase in buying activity beyond this zone, would provide a new catalyst for USD/JPY's upward movement.Given that oscillators on the daily chart remain positive and are still far from overbought territory, spot prices are likely to target the key psychological level of 154.00. This bullish momentum could extend further, pushing the pair toward the 154.75–154.80 level and the psychological level of 155.00. On the other hand, the Asian session low near 152.56 acts as immediate support. A break below this level could drive USD/JPY toward intermediate support at …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Recent repeated failures to overcome resistance around 154.50, along with a break below the support level at 153.30–153.25 (previously resistance), confirm the likelihood of further downside movement in the USD/JPY pair. However, positive oscillators on the daily chart indicate that any further decline is likely to find strong support near the round level of 153.00 or around 152.50. A drop toward 152.00, followed by a slight move below this level, could be viewed as a new trigger for the bears. Such a development would open the way for a continuation of the recent pullback from the October and November highs near 154.50, a level that was also observed in February 2025. On…
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Key takeaways The Japanese yen has weakened sharply, losing 3.7% against the USD as markets priced in pro-stimulus expectations from new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi, fuelling the “Takaichi Trade.”Despite short-term JPY weakness, Japan’s consumer confidence continues to improve, supporting the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) gradual rate hike stance.The BoJ’s policy rate curve remains upward trending, signalling gradual monetary tightening into 2026.The US–Japan 10-year yield spread has broken (intraday) below key support at 2.47%, a potential signal for medium-term USD/JPY weakness ahead. In the past three sessions since Monday, 6 October 2025, the Japanese yen has weakened sig…
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